[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 9 月 26 日 财政逆周期调节如何加力 ——2024 年 9 月政治局会议解读 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 [Table_Summary] 要点 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 ◼ 每年 9 月政治局会议中，以经济为主题的并不多见。和 9 月 24 日三部委新 闻发布会一样，这种超预期的安排，释放了改善预期、稳定经济和提振市场 的积极信号。 ◼ 货币金融和地产领域的新政策，9 月 24 日的新闻发布会已经做了预告。目前 市场最关心的是，年内是否会有增量财政工具，本次会议没有给出明确的答 案。 ◼ 我们认为，从支出空间看，不排除四季度出台增量财政工具的可能。 ◼ 今年 7 月政治局会议要求"实施好积极的财政政策"，9 月政治局会议要求 "加大财政货币政策逆周期调节力度，保证必要的财政支出，切实做好基层 '三保'工作。"对比来看，对于财政的部署明显更积极。 相关报告 ◼ 今年 1-8 月，公共财政赤字使用率为 42.4%，和过去四年同期相比，仅次于 2 022 年同期（47.6%）。减收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 8.43 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with its BaaS (Business as a Service) business performing particularly well. In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.321 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [3]. - The gross margin remains high at 73.19%, reflecting a focus on AI technology research and development [3]. - The company has successfully integrated AI applications with its products, enhancing performance and reducing response times significantly [3]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 29.55 billion CNY, 32.88 billion CNY, and 36.93 billion CNY respectively, and net profits of 3.05 billion CNY, 3.98 billion CNY, and 4.78 billion CNY [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022A: 2,062 - 2023A: 2,681 - 2024E: 2,955 - 2025E: 3,288 - 2026E: 3,693 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 26% - 2023A: 30% - 2024E: 10% - 2025E: 11% - 2026E: 12% [1]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022A: 240 - 2023A: 340 - 2024E: 305 - 2025E: 398 - 2026E: 478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 107% - 2023A: 42% - 2024E: -10% - 2025E: 31% - 2026E: 20% [1]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 15.6, 11.0, 12.3, 9.4, and 7.8 for the years 2023 to 2026 respectively [1].

Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy package announced on September 24 by three ministries aims to restore confidence, improve expectations, and stabilize the economy, with a focus on monetary policy, capital markets, and real estate [2][3] - The announcement's timing suggests a proactive approach to policy changes, indicating a potential shift in economic strategy [2] - Future policies are anticipated, including new fiscal tools and consumption incentives, with an increased likelihood of additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [2][3] Macroeconomic Policy - The policy package includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 20 basis point cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% [3] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points, which will lower the long-term mortgage cost for residents [3] - The reduction in the down payment ratio for second homes from 25% to 15% aims to stimulate demand and support home purchases [3] Real Estate Sector - The extension of financial support policies until the end of 2026 is expected to help stabilize the real estate market and mitigate risks [3] - The central bank's support for land acquisition by real estate companies is designed to alleviate financial pressures and enhance market liquidity [3] - The anticipated policies are expected to lead to a marginal improvement in real estate sales, although the overall market conditions remain challenging [3]

Group 1: Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market, with potential further reductions of 0.25-0.5 percentage points [2][3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 1.5%, which is expected to stimulate economic recovery and promote credit expansion [2][3] - A new monetary policy tool was introduced to support the stock market, allowing securities, fund, and insurance companies to swap assets for liquidity, with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumer Finance - The central bank proposed to lower existing mortgage rates and unify the minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes to 15%, which is expected to ease the financial burden on residents and stimulate consumption [2][3] - The average expected reduction in existing mortgage rates is around 0.5 percentage points, which could alleviate repayment pressure and improve cash flow for households [2][3] Group 3: Capital Market Developments - The introduction of a stock repurchase and increase special re-loan program aims to provide banks with the ability to lend to listed companies and major shareholders for stock buybacks, with an initial quota of 300 billion yuan [5][6] - The policy aims to enhance market liquidity and stabilize stock prices, encouraging companies to signal confidence through share buybacks [5][6] Group 4: Industry-Specific Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable dividend-paying sectors such as public utilities and transportation, as well as technology segments like nuclear power and telecommunications, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [3][4] - In the cyclical sector, opportunities are identified in metals and energy, particularly in gold and industrial metals, due to geopolitical risks and manufacturing expansion [3][4] Group 5: Railway Industry Insights - The China National Railway Group faces significant debt pressure, with total liabilities reaching 6.21 trillion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.55% as of mid-2024 [6] - The report highlights the need for reform in the railway sector, suggesting that separating network operations from commercial operations could enhance efficiency and profitability [6]

重点公司基本状况 简称 股价 EPS PE 评级 （元） 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 保利发展 8.29 1.0 1.13 1.21 1.27 8.2 7.3 6.9 6.5 8.29 1.0 买入 招商蛇口 9.60 0.7 0.90 1.07 1.15 14.8 10.7 9.0 8.3 9.60 0.7 买入 招商积余 9.23 0.7 0.85 1.02 1.19 13.3 10.9 9.0 7.8 9.23 0.7 买入 华润万象生活 27.25 1.3 1.59 1.90 2.23 19.2 15.5 12.9 11.0 27.25 1.3 买入 保利物业 27.70 2.5 2.95 3.42 3.93 10.0 8.5 7.3 6.4 27.70 2.5 买入 备注：股价以 9 月 25 日收盘价为准 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：由子沛 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 Email：liy ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a market price of 11.66 CNY [2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a significant turning point in profitability due to the divestiture of overseas loss-making assets, specifically the TMD subsidiary, which is projected to improve overall profitability [3][4] - The seating business has reached a profitability inflection point, entering a phase of scale production with multiple new client projects [4] - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic seating solutions, with strong growth potential in both domestic and global markets [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 21,571 million CNY in 2023 to 33,603 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 204 million CNY in 2023 to 1,447 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 27% in 2026 [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 1.14 CNY in 2026 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.4 in 2023 to 9.0 in 2026, indicating improved valuation as profitability increases [1] Business Developments - The divestiture of TMD is expected to alleviate financial strain and enhance profitability in the Americas region for the company [3] - The seating business has achieved significant revenue milestones, with 6.55 billion CNY in 2023 and nearly 9 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, marking the first quarterly profit in Q2 2024 [4] - The company has secured a diverse range of clients, including new energy vehicle manufacturers and joint ventures, indicating a robust order backlog [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a series of policies announced on September 24, aimed at supporting high-quality economic development, covering monetary policy, capital markets, and real estate, with a stronger-than-expected impact [5][6] - The timing of the announcement, with only one day between the notice and the event, suggests a proactive policy shift intended to restore confidence and stabilize the economy [6][7] - There is an expectation for additional policies to be introduced, including new fiscal tools and consumption promotion measures, particularly in light of weak domestic demand and low prices [7][8] Group 2 - The report suggests that mergers and acquisitions may accelerate to address low prices and improve industry concentration, as historical data indicates that supply-side reforms have been effective in combating price stagnation [10][11] - The central bank is expected to utilize secondary market transactions of government bonds as a primary channel for injecting medium to long-term liquidity, following a series of monetary easing measures [11][12] - Specific policies targeting the real estate sector have been introduced, primarily encouraging leverage, to foster a positive cycle in the market [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The recent capital market policies introduced by the government are stronger than expected, with the central bank establishing two new monetary policy tools to provide direct financing support to market participants [4][8] - The policies aim to enhance the funding capabilities of non-bank financial institutions and support stock repurchases and increases by listed companies and major shareholders [5][15] Summary by Sections 1. Structural Monetary Policy Tool: Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Convenience - The central bank has introduced a swap convenience tool allowing eligible securities, fund, and insurance companies to exchange their assets for high liquidity assets from the central bank, enhancing their funding and stock purchasing capabilities [8][10] - The initial scale of this tool is set at 500 billion, with potential for expansion based on market conditions [9][10] - The funds obtained through this tool are designated solely for stock market investments [10] 2. Stock Repurchase and Increase Special Re-loan - The central bank has created a special re-loan to encourage banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders for stock repurchases and increases [13][15] - The initial scale of this re-loan is 300 billion, with the possibility of future increases [13][15] - The re-loan interest rate is set at 1.75%, with banks charging an additional 0.5 percentage points to clients, resulting in a total of 2.25% [13][15] 3. Long-term Capital Market Entry and Mergers & Acquisitions Policies - The report outlines measures to promote long-term capital entry into the market, including the establishment of guidelines for long-term investments and support for insurance institutions to set up private equity funds [16][18] - It emphasizes the need for simplified review processes for mergers and acquisitions to encourage corporate restructuring and resource allocation [20][21] - The report also highlights the importance of improving the quality and investment value of listed companies through various measures, including encouraging stock buybacks and enhancing corporate governance [22][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, noting its undervaluation and low allocation, alongside ongoing mergers and acquisitions among brokerages [23] - Specific brokerages to watch include Guotai Junan, Haitong, and Zhongjin, among others [23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and a "Hold" rating to Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1][1][1][1][1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent policy measures, if implemented, will have a short-term negative impact on banks' net interest margins, revenues, and pre-tax profits, with expected declines of -10 basis points, -5.2 percentage points, and -11.6 percentage points respectively for 2025 [1][1][1]. - The report emphasizes that while there may be short-term pressure on margins and profits, the long-term effects of these policies will help stabilize scale and reduce risks [1][1][1]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Impact of Policies - Recent policies are expected to target both asset and liability sides of banks, including a 50 basis point reduction in existing mortgage loan rates and a 20 basis point reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [6][6]. - The asset-side policies are projected to have a short-term negative impact on banks' net interest margins and profits, with specific impacts of -1.4 basis points on net interest margin and -1.8 percentage points on pre-tax profit for 2024E [6][6]. - Long-term benefits include stabilizing the scale of mortgage loans and reducing risks associated with rising non-performing loans [6][6]. 2. Capital Supplementation for Major Banks - The report discusses plans for major banks to increase their core Tier 1 capital to enhance their ability to serve the real economy and maintain dividend payouts [2][2]. 3. Real Estate Policy Measures - The report outlines a dual approach to real estate policy, focusing on both demand and supply. Demand-side measures include lowering mortgage rates and adjusting down payment ratios, while supply-side measures aim to alleviate financing pressures on real estate companies [2][2]. 4. Risk Mitigation - The report indicates that financial risks related to real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions are gradually being mitigated, contributing to improved asset quality for banks [2][2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in bank stocks due to their defensive nature and high dividend yields, particularly favoring Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and major state-owned banks like Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China [3][3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the railway industry, emphasizing the potential for investment opportunities due to ongoing reforms and market adjustments [2]. Core Insights - The railway reform in China has made significant progress since 2013, focusing on separating government and enterprise functions, leading to a more market-oriented approach. However, there is still room for optimization in investment operations and asset management [2][5]. - The China National Railway Group faces substantial debt, with total liabilities reaching 6.21 trillion yuan and an asset-liability ratio of 64.55% as of mid-2024. The group's net profit margin is low, at approximately 0.30% [2][10]. - The railway investment scale is expected to remain high, with plans to expand the railway network to about 200,000 kilometers by 2035, including 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail [2][10]. Summary by Sections Railway Reform - The reform process has been marked by the establishment of the China National Railway Group, which has taken over the operational responsibilities of the former Ministry of Railways. This transition aims to clarify the roles of government and enterprise, promoting market-oriented operations [5][6]. - The report highlights the need for further reforms, particularly in separating network operations from commercial activities, which may become a future direction for reform [2][6]. Financial Overview - As of June 2024, the China National Railway Group's total liabilities were 6.21 trillion yuan, with a cash outflow of 306.4 billion yuan for debt repayment in the first half of 2024. The group's revenue for the same period was 579.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.737 billion yuan [2][10]. - The report indicates that the railway sector's profitability needs improvement, and the group must enhance its financial sustainability amid high debt levels [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the railway sector, particularly in high-speed rail ticket pricing reforms and companies with attractive dividend yields, such as Daqin Railway [2]. - It suggests monitoring companies like China Railway Tielong Logistics, which has a competitive advantage in special container services, and China Railway Special Cargo, a logistics service provider under the China National Railway Group [2].