【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】政策杨畅：生产降速与需求偏弱——当前经济与政策思考 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： Email： [b_Suy 今日预览 今日重点>> 【政策】杨畅：生产降速与需求偏弱——当前经济与政策思考 【医药】祝嘉琦：中药 2024H1：业绩短期承压，提质增效为主线 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【政策】杨畅：生产降速与需求偏弱——当前经济与政策思考 杨畅｜中泰政策首席 S0740519090004 8 月经济数据呈现生产降速与需求偏弱的特点： 第一，工业增加值同比增速回落，考虑到上年基数偏弱，同比增速回落反应生产呈现降速态势； 第二，工业生产降速主要受下游需求影响，工业企业产销率相较上月回落 0.6 个百分点，相较上年 同期回落 0.8 个百分点，且自 6 月以来连续 3 个月低于上年同期水平； 第三，外需短期具有韧性，出口交货值当月同比上涨 6.4%，剔除掉价格因 ...

燕麦科技(688312.SH)/机械 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2024 年 9 月 18 日 果链 FPC 测试设备龙头，AI iPhone 浪潮助力业绩高增 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------- ...

2 3KLMNOP QO R !"#$%& '()*+,$S0740522020001 Email$zengbiao@zts.com.cn !"#$-. '()*+,$S0740522040004 Email$wupeng@zts.com.cn !"#$/01 '()*+,$S0740522080002 Email$zhubr@zts.com.cn !"#$23. '()*+,$S0740522100005 Email$zhaoyp02@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------|--------| | | | | STUV | | | 45678 | 357 | | 9(:5;(<= ) | 42,853 | | 9(>?5;(<= ) | 36,802 | [Table_QuotePic] EF-WXYZ[\ -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023/92023/112024/12024/32024/52024/7 !"#$%&'( )*300 67@ABCDEF [Table_Report] ]^CD CATL & GM !"#$%&'()*+, ...

、 OpenAI 发布 o1 模型，开启大模型新范式 -中泰通信行业周报（0909-0915） 通信 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 9 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Economic Overview - August economic data indicates a slowdown in production and weak demand, with industrial added value growth year-on-year falling to 4.5% from 5.1%[6] - The industrial production slowdown is primarily influenced by downstream demand, with the industrial enterprise production and sales rate dropping by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 96.6%[6][7] External Demand - External demand shows short-term resilience, with export delivery value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[7] - After excluding price factors, the actual volume of exports has shown an upward trend, indicating robust external demand despite domestic weaknesses[7] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand remains weak, with fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) totaling 329,385 billion yuan, reflecting a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.4%[8] - Private fixed asset investment has seen a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, while non-private investment has increased by 5.9%[8][10] Real Estate and Infrastructure - Real estate investment for the first eight months totaled 69,284 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.2%[10] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.4%[10] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 38,726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, down from 2.7% previously[10] - The restaurant sector showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, while retail sales growth fell to 1.9%[10] Employment Trends - The urban survey unemployment rate slightly increased to 5.3% in August, compared to 5.2% in the previous month[11] - Employment conditions remain stable, with average working hours at 48.7 hours per week[11] High-Frequency Data Insights - Production remains at low levels, with the operating rate of steel mills in Tangshan at 87.15% as of September 13, 2024[12] - Housing transaction volumes in major cities continue to decline, indicating a weakening real estate market[12][17] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include domestic and international policy changes, unexpected economic fluctuations, and international trade tensions[29]

中药 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 09 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------|--------|------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|----------|-------|------------|-------|-------|--------| | 评级：增持（ 维持 ） \n分析师：祝嘉琦 \n执业证书编号： S0740519040001 | [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 \n简称 | \n股价 \n( 元 ...

[Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 [基本状况 Table_Profit] 轻工纺服 证券研究报告 /行业周 报 2024 年 9 月 17 日 评级：增持(维持) 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn 轻工公司数（申万分类） $$^ { 1 5 2 }$$ 轻工行业总市值（亿元） 6,595 轻工行业流通市值（亿元） 2,659 纺服公司数（申万分类） 104 纺服行业总市值（亿元） 4,831 纺服行业流通市值（亿元） 1,884 [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023-09-18 2024-03-18 轻工制造(申万) 上证指 ...

、 OpenAI 发布 o1 模型，开启大模型新范式 -中泰通信行业周报（0909-0915） 通信 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 9 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

业绩平稳增长，种植牙增速亮眼 通策医疗(600763)/医疗服务 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 09 月 17 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the industry [1] Core Views - The overall market has experienced a pullback, but there is optimism regarding the dual themes of AI and domestic production [1] - The report highlights the importance of AI as a key investment theme for 2024, with a focus on companies benefiting from the AI industry chain [7] Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic index decreased by 2.35%, indicating an overall market pullback [12] - The A-share semiconductor index saw a decline of 5.1% [19] Industry News - Apple launched the iPhone 16 series, with expected global shipments of 73 million units in 2024, marking a significant increase from previous models [22] - Huawei introduced the Mate XT, the world's first three-fold screen smartphone, with prices ranging from 19,999 to 23,999 yuan [24] - OpenAI released the new o1 model series, significantly improving performance in reasoning tasks compared to previous models [25] Sector Tracking - The report emphasizes the focus on AI beneficiary sectors and domestic production themes, identifying key companies in various segments: - AI+: Luxshare Precision, Pegatron, GoerTek, and others [7] - Semiconductors: Zhaoyi Innovation, North Huachuang, and others [7] - The storage sector experienced a decline of 2.8%, with notable drops in companies like Zhongdian Port and East Core [27] - The logic IC sector showed a slight increase of 0.3%, with companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information performing well [27] - The report suggests that the AI-enabled consumer electronics sector is expected to see growth due to new product launches and market demand [27] Important Announcements - Luxshare Precision announced plans to acquire Leoni AG, with a total consideration of approximately 2.05 billion euros for a 50.1% stake [5] - GoerTek plans to spin off its subsidiary Goer Micro for a separate listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6]