【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】地产由子沛：保障房项目收益率与运营成本和收储价格的 关系-基于上市保障房 REITs 项目财报的深度研究 证券研究报告 2024 年 8 月 15 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： [b_Suy 今日预览 Email： 今日重点 >> 【地产】由子沛：保障房项目收益率与运营成本和收储价格的关系-基于 上市保障房 REITs 项目财报的深度研究 研究分享 >> 【宏观】张德礼：人民币贷款拖累 7 月社融 【固收】肖雨：9 月降息已成共识——7 月美国通胀数据点评 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【地产】由子沛：保障房项目收益率与运营成本和收储价格的关系-基于上市保障房 REITs 项目 财报的深度研究 由子沛｜中泰地产首席 S0740523020005 2021 年以来，随着保租房提出和相关政策推动，住房租赁行业快速发展，2023 年 7 月，党中央在 政治局会议中首次提出房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化， ...

[Table_Industry] [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 7,738 8,553 10,222 12,423 14,729 增长率 yoy% 28.6% 10.5% 19.5% 21.5% 18.6% 净利润（百万元） 710 664 1,078 1,352 1,606 增长率 yoy% -30.1% -6.5% 62.4% 25.4% 18.8% 每股收益（元） 1.01 0.94 1.53 1.92 2.27 每股现金流量 0.10 0.09 1.91 1.69 2.27 净资产收益率 10.3% 9.0% 13.1% 14.6% 15.4% P/E 15.9 17.0 10.5 8.4 7.0 P/B 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 备注：股价信息为 8 月 15 日收盘价 仙鹤股份（603733）/轻工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 15 日 [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） 市场价格：16.01 元 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S07405230300 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, with a significant increase in R&D investment. The revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 525.06 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.88%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 134.21 million yuan, up 12.35% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain robust order growth, with new orders in the first half of 2024 amounting to 711 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.38% [2][3] - The company anticipates revenue growth to outpace profit growth due to increased R&D spending and a decline in revenue from equity-sharing businesses [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024E Revenue: 1,338.87 million yuan (31.59% growth) - 2025E Revenue: 1,756.74 million yuan (31.21% growth) - 2026E Revenue: 2,269.90 million yuan (29.21% growth) - 2024E Net Profit: 333.35 million yuan (22.57% growth) - 2025E Net Profit: 411.31 million yuan (23.39% growth) - 2026E Net Profit: 515.12 million yuan (25.24% growth) [2][3][7] - Key Financial Metrics: - Gross Margin for H1 2024: 68.75% (up 2.19 percentage points) - Net Margin for H1 2024: 25.56% (down 2.62 percentage points) - R&D Expenses for H1 2024: 149 million yuan (up 61.94%) [2][3][5] Business Segment Performance - The company’s revenue from entrusted R&D services in H1 2024 was approximately 206 million yuan (up 5.8%), while revenue from self-developed technology transfer was about 290 million yuan (up 52.4%) [3] - The CDMO segment saw a significant decline in revenue, amounting to 5.12 million yuan (down 70.4%), but is expected to recover as production capacity ramps up [3] - The innovative drug development segment is progressing, with the BIOS-0618 clinical trial ongoing, which is anticipated to contribute positively to future performance [3] Valuation Metrics - P/E Ratio for 2024E: 13.89 - P/B Ratio for 2024E: 1.53 - PEG Ratio for 2024E: 0.62 [1][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 59.38 [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company achieved revenue of 8.861 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 900 million yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [1]. - The report highlights stable sales growth in beer volume, although the average price decreased year-on-year. The company’s beer revenue for Q2 2024 was 4.446 billion yuan, with beer sales volume reaching 917,000 kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.53% [1]. - The report notes a decline in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios in the short term, impacting profitability. The forecast for 2024 revenue is set at 15.277 billion yuan, with net profit expected to be 1.344 billion yuan [1][2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for Chongqing Beer are as follows: - 2023A: 14,815 million yuan - 2024E: 15,277 million yuan - 2025E: 15,932 million yuan - 2026E: 16,590 million yuan - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023A: 1,337 million yuan - 2024E: 1,344 million yuan - 2025E: 1,471 million yuan - 2026E: 1,561 million yuan - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 2.76 yuan - 2024E: 2.78 yuan - 2025E: 3.04 yuan - 2026E: 3.23 yuan [1][2]. Key Financial Ratios - The report provides the following key financial ratios: - P/E ratio for 2024E is 21.4 - P/B ratio for 2024E is 12.9 - Gross margin is projected to be 49.2% in 2024E - Net margin is expected to be 17.9% in 2024E - ROE is forecasted at 26.2% in 2024E [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 exceeded the forecast median, with significant improvement in profitability [1]. - The smart acoustic business experienced substantial growth, primarily driven by increased utilization rates in the headphone segment [1]. - The company is actively integrating production lines to enhance operational efficiency, leading to a rapid recovery in profitability [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 104,894 million - 2023A: 98,574 million (down 6% YoY) - 2024E: 98,771 million (0% YoY) - 2025E: 120,004 million (21% YoY) - 2026E: 144,268 million (20% YoY) [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1,749 million - 2023A: 1,088 million (down 38% YoY) - 2024E: 2,509 million (up 131% YoY) - 2025E: 3,526 million (up 41% YoY) - 2026E: 4,539 million (up 29% YoY) [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.32 - 2024E: 0.73 - 2025E: 1.03 - 2026E: 1.33 [1][2] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 3% - 2024E: 8% - 2025E: 10% - 2026E: 12% [1][2] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 11.5% (up 4.2 percentage points YoY) - Net Margin: 3.0% (up 2.0 percentage points YoY) [1][2] Investment Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2,509 million in 2024, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 28 times [1]. - The report highlights the potential for a new product cycle driven by advancements in AI and AR technologies, which are expected to enhance the company's market position [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from collaborations with major tech firms, enhancing its product offerings in the smart acoustic and AR sectors [1].

海光信息（688041.SH）/计 算机 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 08 月 15 日 [Table_Industry] 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 总股本(百万股) 2,324 流通股本(百万股) 887 市价(元) 76.60 市值(百万元) 178,044 流通市值(百万元) 67,910 [基Ta本ble状_P况rofit] 海光信息：24H1 业绩持续高增，CPU+DCU 前景向好 [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） 分析师：孙行臻 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn 市场价格：76.60 [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|-------|-------|--------|--------| | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（ ...

鹏鼎控股（002938.SZ）/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 14 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：35.26 元/股 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘博文 执业证书编号：S0740524030001 Email：liubw@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------| | 总股本(百万股) | 2,319 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,315 | | 市价(元) | 35.26 | | 市值(百万元) | 81,752 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 81,631 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 鹏鼎控股 沪深300 2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-0 ...

Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - The global manufacturing PMI for July recorded 49.7, a significant decline of 1.1 percentage points, entering the contraction zone[4] - The output and new orders indices fell by 2.1 and 1.9 percentage points, respectively, with new orders dropping to 48.8[4] - Developed markets' PMI decreased to 48.8, while emerging markets remained in expansion at 50.7[6] Regional Insights - The US manufacturing PMI fell by 1.7 percentage points to 46.8, with notable declines in production and employment indices[17] - China's manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.4, with production and new orders showing signs of contraction[11] - India's manufacturing PMI remained robust at 58.1, indicating strong growth compared to other regions[6] Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - Global manufacturing is experiencing a "passive destocking" phase, with raw material inventories declining while finished goods inventories show signs of reduction[14] - The purchasing price index in China fell to 49.9, indicating a drop below the neutral line, while the factory price index decreased to 46.3[15] - In the US, the price index rose to 52.9, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures despite overall manufacturing contraction[23]

业绩同比高增，中期派息及注销回购股份有望提振股价 吉祥航空（603885.SH）/航空 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 14 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------|----------|-----------|-----------|---------| | 市场价格：11.20 元 | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：杜冲 | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,210 | 20,096 | 25,036 | 28,638 | 30,468 | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | 增长率 yoy% 净利润（百万元） | -30% -4,148 | 145% 751 | 2 ...

工业富联(601138.SH)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 13 日 Q2 营收高增，AI 服务器保持快速增长 [Table_Industry] 分析师： 王芳 执业证书编号： S0740521120002 Email： wangfang02@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨旭 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 分析师：张琼 执业证书编号：S0740523070004 Email：zhangqiong@zts.com.cn [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：20.78 元 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 19,868 流通股本(百万股) 19,862 市价(元) 20.78 市值(百万元) 412,855 流通市值(百万元) 412,740 [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04 ...