Policy and Strategic Industries - The report focuses on the strategic backup of key industries during the Obama administration, emphasizing the need to enhance economic resilience, competitiveness, and global leadership by reducing supply chain dependencies [2] - Key industries targeted during Obama's tenure included manufacturing, energy, cybersecurity, healthcare, education, and technological innovation, covering 9 out of 20 primary sub-sectors under the NAICS classification [2] - Specific measures included reshoring manufacturing supply chains, promoting energy independence, strengthening cybersecurity infrastructure, and enhancing healthcare and education systems [2] - The outcomes included reduced trade deficits in manufacturing, decreased reliance on foreign oil, improved broadband coverage, and advancements in healthcare and education systems [2] Asset Allocation and Market Trends - The report analyzes the sequence of asset market bottoms, highlighting that bond yields typically lead, followed by equities and commodities, based on historical data from the US and China [3] - In the US, the sequence of asset bottoms from 1981 to 2020 consistently followed the pattern of bonds leading, followed by equities and commodities, with exceptions in 2000-2002 [3] - In China, the sequence also aligns with the Pringle cycle, where bond yields lead, followed by equities and commodities, as observed in 2004-2006, 2008-2009, and 2018-2020 [3] - Longer lags between bond and equity market bottoms tend to result in stronger equity market rebounds, as seen in historical US data [3] 3C Equipment and AI Opportunities - The 3C equipment industry has seen stable shipment volumes since 2015, driven by product innovation and upgrades, such as the transition from 4G to 5G and the rise of AI-enabled devices [4] - Equipment manufacturers are heavily influenced by Apple's innovation cycles, with significant performance growth observed during 5G rollouts and AI-driven device adoption [4] - AI-enabled smartphones are expected to drive a new wave of hardware upgrades, with global AI phone sales projected to exceed 590 million units by 2027, accounting for over 50% of total smartphone shipments [4] - Equipment manufacturers are poised to benefit from this innovation cycle, with potential for both earnings growth and valuation re-rating [4] Real Estate Market Trends - China's real estate market showed slight improvement in sales from January to July 2024, with sales area and sales value declining by 18 6% and 24 3% year-on-year, respectively, but with a marginal improvement compared to the first half of the year [5] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a 10 2% year-on-year drop, while new construction starts and completions showed mixed trends, with new starts slightly improving but remaining weak overall [5] - Policy easing, including lower down payment ratios and mortgage rates, is expected to support a gradual recovery in sales, although the market remains weak due to insufficient demand [5] Rural Commercial Banks and Bond Investments - Rural commercial banks have become significant buyers of bonds in the secondary market, driven by a funding gap caused by slower loan growth and declining loan rates [6] - These banks prefer short-term government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, with a notable shift towards long-term bonds in early 2024, followed by a sell-off in the second quarter [6] - Their investment strategies include a mix of holding for yield (configurational strategy), trading for capital gains (trading strategy), and a hybrid approach for medium to long-term bonds [6] - The behavior of rural commercial banks in bond markets can serve as an indicator of future market trends, with their net buying patterns often preceding shifts in bond yields [6]

哦·[Table_Industry] [Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/宏观策略专题报告 2024 年 8 月 23 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email:zhangwy01@zts.com.cn [Table_Report] 相关报告 如何看待下半年政策博弈的聚焦点 证券研究报告/策略周刊 2024 年 8 月 24 日 投资要点 ◼ 一、如何看待下半年政策博弈的聚焦点 本周市场再度呈现承压走势，市场中小盘风格整体表现较差，而大盘价值，特别 是大型国有行表现相对较好。近期公布的 7 月经济金融数据不及预期，使得本周 市场风险偏好再度缩紧，市场资金重新聚焦至红利板块，对其余板块的流动性造 成一定压制。近期下半年进一步举债刺激的预期是近期市场关注的两个焦点所 在。 对于下半年财政政策，我们不排除下半年进一步加大举债的可能性。但与市场预 期的"刺激"所不同，我们认为下半年若出现进一步举债，其方向或只偏向于防 风险，以及推进新质生产力发展。就防风险角度而言，我们认为下半年有可能会 推出新一批国债与特别国债缓解地方财政压力。但是，这种以 ...

中 泰证 券研 究所 专 业｜ 领先 ｜深 度｜ 诚信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 币价影响因素分析 ——对比利率、M2、纳指、美元指数、黄金走势 2024 . 0 8 . 2 3 分析师：康雅雯 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn 分析师：朱骎楠 执业证书编号：S0740523080003 Email：zhuqn01@zts.com.cn 投资要点 ◼ 本篇报告旨在分析比特币与各指标之间的关系，对比利率、纳指、M2、美元指数以及黄金走势，分析相关性及背后缘由，并以此判断比特 币价格当前所处阶段与未来走势。（注：下述第一轮牛熊切换指2015~2018年行情，第二轮牛熊切换指2018~2022年行情，第三轮为当下 2022年~至今行情） ◼ 1）长周期价格看M2，走势与纳指同频，但幅度与节奏差异较大，比特币与美元指数走势相反，与黄金关联度较低。 利率对比：2019年后，比特币主导权由亚洲+欧洲向北美洲转移，这解释为何第一轮比特币牛市是在美联储持续加息背景下演绎，彼时中国、 日本、欧盟均处于利率下行周期中；而第二轮开始，比特币走势与美联储利率关联度提升， ...

华大智造（688114）/医疗器 械 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 25 日 评级：买入(维持) 市场价格：39.75 元 分析师：祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 电话：021-20315150 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢木青 执业证书编号：S0740518010004 电话：021-20315895 Email：xiemq@zts.com.cn 分析师：于佳喜 执业证书编号：S0740523080002 Email：yujx03@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------| | 总股本(百万股) | 416 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 212 | | 市价(元) | 39.75 | | 市值(百万元) | 16,522 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 8,418 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 华大智造 沪深300 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2023-082023-092023-102023-10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in Q2 performance, with a significant recovery in domestic semi-trailer business and a solid global market position [4][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 10.7 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.56%, but Q2 net profit showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.46% [4][5]. - The company is expected to face challenges due to a slowdown in North American business, but overall growth is anticipated in the coming years [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue forecast for 2024 is 25.91 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be 1.38 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 43.8% [1][5]. - The company achieved a net profit of 5.63 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 70.33% year-on-year, with Q2 contributing 2.98 billion yuan [4][5]. Business Segments - The Starlink Lighthouse Pioneer Group saw a sales increase of 24.67%, with revenue reaching 2.63 billion yuan, indicating strong growth in the flatbed and derivative vehicle market [5]. - The Strong Crown Business Group focused on expanding overseas markets, achieving revenue of 2.50 billion yuan with improved gross margins [5]. - North American operations generated revenue of 3.68 billion yuan, returning to normal levels after previous highs [5]. - European and other operations reported revenue of 1.51 billion yuan, maintaining a leading market share in the UK [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 11.3, 9.3, and 8.1 respectively [1][5]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with net profit expected to grow by 20.7% in 2025 and 15.9% in 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a high growth phase as revenue reaches an inflection point, driven by the gradual narrowing of price reductions for its key product, Alectinib, and the anticipated volume increase post-inclusion in the medical insurance directory for lung cancer treatments [6][12]. - The company has a robust pipeline with several products in late-stage clinical trials, including new indications for existing drugs, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [10][24]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position in lung cancer treatment and its ongoing efforts to expand into new therapeutic areas, such as eye diseases, which represent significant market opportunities [12][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 2,456 million yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 26.0% for 2024 and 26.1% for 2025 [6]. - Net profit is expected to reach 348 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 139.3% year-over-year [6]. - Earnings per share are projected to grow from 0.83 yuan in 2023 to 1.22 yuan in 2024 [6]. Product Pipeline - The company has several products in advanced stages of development, including Ensartinib, which has received NDA acceptance in the U.S. and is expected to be a leading treatment for ALK-positive NSCLC [11][13]. - The CDK4/6 inhibitor, BPI-16350, is in the registration phase and is anticipated to be approved in the next 1-2 years, targeting HR+/HER2- breast cancer [24]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong brand in the lung cancer treatment market, with its first small molecule targeted therapy, Alectinib, being widely recognized and utilized [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on expanding its product offerings and enhancing marketing synergies among its existing products to maximize revenue potential [12][24].

评级：增持(维持) 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn [基Ta本ble状_P况rofit] 轻工公司数（申万分类） 152 轻工行业总市值（亿元） 6,941 轻工行业流通市值（亿元） 2,703 纺服公司数（申万分类） 104 纺服行业总市值（亿元） 5,020 纺服行业流通市值（亿元） 1,922 、 家居补贴持续落地中，运动板块业绩符合预期 -轻工制造及纺织服装行业周报 轻工纺服 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 8 月 26 日 [重Ta点ble公_F司in基an本ce状] 况 PEG 评级 百亚股份 21.62 0.55 0.76 1.00 1.28 39.31 28.45 21.62 16.89 1.2 ...

降息周期有望开启，板块上升动能将进一步提振 行业评级：增持（维持） 投资要点 分析师：郭中伟 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 Email：guozw@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘耀齐 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈沁一 执业证书编号：S0740523090001 Email：chenqy01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | --- | --- | |--------------------|-----------| | 上市公司数 | 131 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 24,656.12 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 21,776.18 | -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 有色金属（申万） 沪深300 2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a market price of 5.00 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.203 billion HKD for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.44%, and a net profit of 752 million HKD, up 13.03% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The company plans to distribute a dividend of 15.6 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 50%, and additionally proposes a special dividend of 44.7 HKD per share [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 12.93 billion HKD in 2022 to 16.634 billion HKD by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.3% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Net profit is expected to increase from 922 million HKD in 2022 to 1.542 billion HKD in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 14.1% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.35 HKD in 2022 to 0.58 HKD in 2026 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.1 in 2022 to 7.8 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation over time [2]. Business Segment Performance - **Main Brand Performance**: The main brand, Xtep, achieved a revenue of 5.789 billion HKD in the first half of 2024, growing by 6.6% year-on-year. The e-commerce segment saw a revenue increase of over 20%, contributing more than 30% to total revenue [3][4]. - **Fashion Sports Segment**: This segment reported a revenue of 821 million HKD, up 9.7%, with significant growth in the domestic market driven by brand repositioning [3]. - **Professional Sports Segment**: Revenue surged by 72.2% to 593 million HKD, attributed to strong same-store sales growth and robust online performance [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - **Gross Margin Improvement**: The gross margin increased by 3.1 percentage points to 46.0% in the first half of 2024, driven by higher e-commerce sales and improved profitability in the fashion and professional sports segments [4]. - **Net Profit Margin**: The net profit margin rose by 0.2 percentage points to 10.4% [4]. - **Inventory Management**: As of June 30, 2024, inventory stood at 2.199 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.57%, primarily due to acquisitions [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand image and operational efficiency while maintaining a strong emphasis on the running segment. The multi-brand strategy is expected to drive growth, particularly with the successful integration of Saucony and the expansion into the mid-to-high-end market [5].