洋河股份：基本盘稳固，分红受益提升 洋河股份（002304.SZ）/食 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年5月1日 品饮料 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级bl：e_买Tit入le（] 维持） [公Ta司bl盈e_利Fin预an测ce及1] 估值 市场价格：95.07元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 30,105 33,126 35,901 38,738 41,527 分析师：范劲松 增长率yoy% 18.76% 10.04% 8.38% 7.90% 7.20% 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 净利润（百万元） 9,378 10,016 10,884 11,828 12,804 电话：021-20315138 增长率yoy% 24.91% 6.80% 8.67% 8.67% 8.25% 每股收益（元） 6.23 6.65 7.23 7.85 8.50 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 2.42 4.07 6.17 10.00 6.87 分析师：何长天 净资产收益率 19.75% 19.28% 19.76% ...

央企担当，逆势而上 北新建材（000786.SZ）/建 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年4 月30日 材 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：32.75 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 19,934 22,426 25,180 28,660 32,925 分析师：孙颖 增长率yoy% -5% 12% 12% 14% 15% 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 归母净利润（百万元） 3,136 3,524 4,256 5,066 5,560 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -11% 12% 21% 19% 10% 每股收益（元） 1.86 2.09 2.52 3.00 3.29 分析师：韩宇 净资产收益率 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 执业证书编号：S0740522040003 P/E 17.6 15.7 13.0 10.9 10.0 Email：hanyu@zts.com.cn P/B 2.6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 205 billion yuan in 2023, representing an 8% year-over-year growth, and a net profit of 29 billion yuan, which is an 18% increase [6]. - The company has a healthy financial position with a significant cash dividend plan, distributing 2.38 yuan per share, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 45% and a current dividend yield of 5.6% [6]. - The air conditioning segment remains strong, contributing 74% of total revenue, with a 12% increase in revenue for 2023 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain robust performance in 2024, with projected revenues of 220.7 billion yuan and net profits of 32.1 billion yuan [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: 190.15 billion yuan - 2023: 205.02 billion yuan (8% growth) - 2024E: 220.69 billion yuan (8% growth) - 2025E: 229.96 billion yuan (4% growth) - 2026E: 239.86 billion yuan (4% growth) [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: 24.51 billion yuan - 2023: 29.02 billion yuan (18% growth) - 2024E: 32.06 billion yuan (10% growth) - 2025E: 34.42 billion yuan (7% growth) - 2026E: 36.77 billion yuan (7% growth) [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 5.15 yuan - 2024E: 5.69 yuan - 2025E: 6.11 yuan - 2026E: 6.53 yuan [9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) for 2024-2026 is projected at 7.4, 6.9, and 6.5 respectively [6][9]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.38 yuan per share for 2023, which is higher than the previous year's 2 yuan per share [6]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was reported at -2.9 billion yuan, indicating a temporary cash outflow related to inventory and receivables management [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing channel reforms and the expansion of its new energy business, which may lead to additional growth opportunities [6]. - The air conditioning segment's performance is anticipated to drive overall revenue growth, supported by structural upgrades and increased average selling prices [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" with an expectation of a relative increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [9][12]. Core Views - The company is currently facing short-term operational pressure but is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in the future [3][9]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.139 billion in 2022, with a slight decrease to 2.106 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2% [9]. - The net profit for 2023 is projected to be 87 million, down from 138 million in 2022, indicating a significant year-on-year decrease of 37% [9]. - The company aims to improve its profitability through internal reforms, despite facing challenges in the short term [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2.214 billion in 2024, 2.412 billion in 2025, and 2.621 billion in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 5% in 2024 and 9% in 2025 and 2026 [9]. - The net profit is expected to recover to 172 million in 2024, 207 million in 2025, and 234 million in 2026, with growth rates of 97% and 20% respectively [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.08 in 2023 to 0.15 in 2024, 0.19 in 2025, and 0.21 in 2026 [9]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly, with a forecast of 33% in 2024 [9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 8.20, with a market capitalization of 9.126 billion [9]. - The company has seen a decrease in sales in certain product categories, particularly in the liquor series, while the vinegar series has shown growth [9][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence and improving profitability through strategic reforms [9][10].

需求承压，成本改善 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

业绩基本符合预期，盈利能力持续改善 欧派家居（603833）/轻工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月30日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 市场价格：63.96元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 22,480 22,782 24,061 25,839 27,609 分析师：张潇 增长率yoy% 10% 1% 6% 7% 7% 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 净利润（百万元） 2,688 3,036 3,233 3,487 3,720 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 1% 13% 6% 8% 7% 每股收益（元） 4.41 4.98 5.31 5.72 6.11 分析师：邹文婕 每股现金流量 3.96 8.01 10.90 0.99 12.29 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 净资产收益率 16% 17% 15% 14% 13% Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn P/E 14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% within the next 6 to 12 months [3][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 963 million yuan in Q1 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.27% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 million yuan, down 11.80% year-on-year but up 15.70% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak domestic sales, with heavy truck insurance data indicating a year-on-year drop of 17.1% in Q1 2024 [8]. - Profitability improved quarter-on-quarter due to a decrease in expense ratios, with a gross margin of 24.34% and a net margin of 9.57% in Q1 2024 [8]. - The company plans to add six new production lines in 2024, which is expected to enhance revenue [8]. - The air suspension business is experiencing steady growth, with sales of approximately 600,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25.62% [9]. - The international market for heavy trucks is showing positive growth, with exports expected to continue increasing due to strong product competitiveness [9]. - The report highlights a significant replacement demand in the heavy truck sector, which is anticipated to drive industry recovery [9]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are 470 million yuan and 530 million yuan, respectively, with a projected growth rate of 20% and 13% [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4,006 million yuan in 2023, 4,504 million yuan in 2024, 4,886 million yuan in 2025, and 5,162 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 28%, 12%, 8%, and 6% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts are 391 million yuan for 2023, 468 million yuan for 2024, 529 million yuan for 2025, and 546 million yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 20%, 13%, and 3% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.34 yuan in 2023, 0.41 yuan in 2024, 0.46 yuan in 2025, and 0.48 yuan in 2026 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 15.2 in 2023 to 10.9 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [4].

Q1扭亏为盈，盈利预期向好 南方航空（600029.SH）/航空 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月30日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：5.67元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 87,059 159,929 195,145 218,372 228,143 分析师：杜冲 增长率yoy% -14% 84% 22% 12% 4% 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 净利润（百万元） -32,682 -4,209 6,093 14,609 16,075 电话： 增长率yoy% -170% 87% 245% 140% 10% 每股收益（元） -1.80 -0.23 0.34 0.81 0.89 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 0.19 2.21 1.43 2.09 1.66 联系人：李鼎莹 净资产收益率 -59% -8% 10% 19% 17% 电话： P/E -3.1 -24.4 16.9 7.0 6. ...

从直销到渠道，化风险提盈利 东方雨虹（002271.SZ）/建 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年5 月1日 筑材料 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：14.65 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（亿元） 312.14 328.23 362.94 421.74 498.77 分析师：孙颖 增长率yoy% -2.26% 5.15% 10.58% 16.20% 18.27% 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 归母净利润（亿元） 21.21 22.73 29.87 36.07 43.01 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -49.55% 7.16% 31.38% 20.77% 19.24% 每股收益（元） 0.84 0.90 1.18 1.43 1.71 分析师：韩宇 净资产收益率 7.80% 7.92% 12.77% 13.95% 15.21% 执业证书编号：S0740522040003 P/E 17.4 16.2 1 ...

24Q1业绩靓丽，盈利能力环比继续提升 太阳纸业（002078.SZ）/轻工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月30日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 市场价格：15.55元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 39,767 39,544 44,003 46,314 48,630 分析师：张潇 增长率yoy% 24% -1% 11% 5% 5% 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 净利润（百万元） 2,809 3,086 3,612 3,932 4,231 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -5% 10% 17% 9% 8% 每股收益（元） 1.01 1.10 1.29 1.41 1.51 分析师：邹文婕 每股现金流量 1.37 2.37 1.78 2.13 2.41 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 净资产收益率 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn ...