Q4盈利承压，期待利润改善 重庆啤酒（600132.SH）/饮 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月1日 料制造 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：64.47 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 14,039 14,815 15,613 16,387 17,150 分析师：范劲松 增长率yoy% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 净利润（百万元） 1,264 1,337 1,441 1,566 1,668 电话：021-20315733 增长率yoy% 8% 6% 8% 9% 7% 每股收益（元） 2.61 2.76 2.98 3.24 3.45 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 7.75 6.40 6.91 7.51 7.90 分析师：熊欣慰 净资产收益率 35% 37% 27% 22% 18% 执业证书编号：S0740519080002 P/E 24.7 23.3 21.7 19. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Invest" rating for the industry, indicating a recommendation to increase holdings [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the sales of educational travel products, with a 3.2 times month-on-month growth as of March 18, driven by rising interest in family-oriented educational trips [4]. - The report emphasizes the growing demand for experiential learning through educational travel, aligning with current trends in quality education and consumer preferences [4]. - Companies with strong educational content, operational capabilities, and leading positions in the educational travel sector are expected to benefit from the upcoming holiday seasons, such as Qingming and May Day [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry consists of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,470,360 million yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 798,700 million yuan [3]. Market Trends - The report notes a recovery in both online and offline channels for educational travel, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned in this space [4]. - The report provides data on the growth of educational travel participation and market size projections, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong educational resources and comprehensive distribution channels, such as Shandong Publishing, Zhongyuan Media, and others [4].

速运分部提质增效，提升分红回报股东 ——顺丰控股 23Q4 季度点评 顺丰控股（002352.SZ）/物流 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年3月 31日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：36.40元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 267,490 258,409 289,474 322,609 352,050 分析师：苏畅 营业收入增速 29.1% -3.4% 12.0% 11.4% 9.1% 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 归母净利润（百万元） 6,174 8,234 9,574 11,571 13,110 电话：021-20315125 净利润增长率 45% 33% 16% 21% 13% 摊薄每股收益（元） 1.26 1.68 1.96 2.36 2.68 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量（元） 1.17 0.19 1.21 2.69 4.03 分析师：王旭晖 净资产收益率 7.2% 8.9% ...

产品获利能力增强毛利率回升，航发主业成长确定性高 航发动力(600893.SH)/国防 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月1日 军工 [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：33.96 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 37,097 43,734 50,242 57,155 64,810 分析师：陈鼎如 增长率yoy% 9% 18% 15% 14% 13% 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 净利润（百万元） 1,268 1,421 1,648 1,926 2,239 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 7% 12% 16% 17% 16% 每股收益（元） 0.48 0.53 0.62 0.72 0.84 每股现金流量 -4.22 -2.53 3.37 -0.45 -2.31 分析师：马梦泽 净资产收益率 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 执业证书编号：S0740523060003 P/E 71.4 63.7 54.9 47.0 40.4 P/B 2 ...

造价业务显韧性，资源聚焦再突破 广联达（002410.SZ）/计算 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年03月29日 机 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：11.71 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 6,591 6,563 6,577 7,171 7,960 分析师：闻学臣 增长率yoy% 17.3% -0.4% 0.2% 9.0% 11.0% 执业证书编号：S0740519090007 净利润（百万元） 967 116 489 1,069 1,420 Email：wenxc@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 46.3% -88.0% 321.9% 118.8% 32.8% 每股收益（元） 0.58 0.07 0.29 0.64 0.85 每股经营现金流（元） 0.99 0.38 0.52 0.76 1.12 研究助理：刘一哲 净资产收益率 15% 2% 7% 14% 17% Email：liuyz03@zts.com.cn P/E 20 16 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 来源：wind，中泰证券研究所 公司点评 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 3 - 中泰证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证券监督管理委员会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格。 。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 本报告基于本公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料，反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客 观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。本公司力求但不保证这些信息的准确性和完整性，且本报告中 的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断，可能会随时调整。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发 出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本报告所载的资料、工具、意见、信息及 推测只提供给客户作参考之用，不构成任何投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司不就报告中的内 容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。本报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合个别客户，不构成客户私人咨询建 议。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负 任何责任。 投资者应注意，在法律允许的情况下，本公司及其本公司的关联 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for March 2024 is 50.8%, indicating a return to expansion after five months, with a significant increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since April 2023 [15] - The new export orders index rose from 46.3% to 51.3%, reaching a new high since March 2023, suggesting improved external demand [15] - The service industry and construction sector's business activity indices improved significantly, with the service sector at 52.4% and construction at 56.2%, both exceeding seasonal expectations [15] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The six major state-owned banks reported a 2.1% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2023, with revenue declining by 0.6%, primarily driven by scale growth despite pressure on interest margins [2] - The asset quality remains stable, with a decrease in the new non-performing loan generation rate by 12 basis points year-on-year, indicating limited new bad debt pressure [2] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 25 basis points to 11.97%, reflecting a solid capital position across the major banks [2] Group 3: Solar Industry Developments - Perovskite and tandem solar cells are identified as the next-generation technologies in photovoltaics, with theoretical efficiency limits of 33% and 44% respectively, indicating a significant potential for market disruption [5] - The investment logic for perovskite technology is driven by the expansion of GW-level production lines, suggesting a shift towards commercial applications in diverse scenarios such as BIPV and vehicle-mounted solar [5] - The integration of perovskite with existing silicon production lines is expected to enhance efficiency, with anticipated efficiencies exceeding 30% for tandem modules [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7][9] Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a revenue of 7.474 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.9% [4][5] - The net profit for 2023 was 891 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [4][5] - The company is accelerating its globalization process, with the North American production capacity set to be released soon [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 5.539 billion yuan - 2023A: 7.474 billion yuan (yoy +34.9%) - 2024E: 9.442 billion yuan (yoy +26%) - 2025E: 11.660 billion yuan (yoy +23%) - 2026E: 14.001 billion yuan (yoy +20%) [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 699 million yuan - 2023A: 891 million yuan (yoy +27.6%) - 2024E: 1.164 billion yuan (yoy +31%) - 2025E: 1.515 billion yuan (yoy +30%) - 2026E: 1.874 billion yuan (yoy +24%) [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.61 yuan - 2023A: 2.06 yuan - 2024E: 2.69 yuan - 2025E: 3.50 yuan - 2026E: 4.33 yuan [1][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 36.0 - 2023A: 28.2 - 2024E: 21.6 - 2025E: 16.6 - 2026E: 13.4 [1][8] Business Segment Performance - **Intelligent Control Business**: - Revenue increased by 38.8% in 2023, contributing significantly to overall growth [5][6] - **Lightweight Components**: - Revenue from lightweight parts reached 3.37 billion yuan in 2023, up 26.6% year-on-year [5][6] - **Production Capacity Expansion**: - The first phase of the Mexico plant, capable of producing 4 million lightweight components annually, commenced operations in Q3 2023 [5][6] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its global presence, particularly in North America and Europe, by leveraging partnerships with major OEMs [5][6] - The ongoing development of the line control chassis aims to position the company as a tier 1 supplier in the future [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 36.26 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 934 million CNY in 2023, turning from a loss in 2022, with a significant increase in both quarterly and annual performance [4] - The recovery of the civil aviation industry in 2023 has led to a substantial increase in passenger volume and flight operations, with the company benefiting from improved operational conditions and asset integration effects [5] - The forecast for 2024 indicates accelerated recovery in international routes, with expected net profits of 2.82 billion CNY and 4.06 billion CNY for 2024 and 2025 respectively, supported by favorable policies and resource integration [5][6] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 5,480 million CNY - 2023A: 11,047 million CNY - 2024E: 13,939 million CNY (growth rate of 102%) - 2025E: 15,761 million CNY (growth rate of 13%) - 2026E: 16,706 million CNY (growth rate of 6%) [2][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: -2,995 million CNY - 2023A: 934 million CNY - 2024E: 2,820 million CNY (growth rate of 202%) - 2025E: 4,062 million CNY (growth rate of 44%) - 2026E: 4,410 million CNY (growth rate of 9%) [2][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: -1.20 CNY - 2023A: 0.38 CNY - 2024E: 1.13 CNY - 2025E: 1.63 CNY - 2026E: 1.77 CNY [2][6] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 32.0, 22.2, and 20.5 respectively [2][6] Operational Highlights - In 2023, Pudong Airport's passenger throughput reached 54.48 million, recovering to 72% of 2019 levels, while Hongqiao Airport's throughput reached 42.49 million, recovering to 93% of 2019 levels [5] - The company generated 1.788 billion CNY in duty-free revenue in 2023, with expectations for future growth following new agreements [5]

、 关注轻纺Q1 业绩前瞻，嘉益、晨光披露年报 -轻工制造及纺织服装行业周报 轻工纺服 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024年3月31日 评级：增持(维持) [重Ta点bl公e_司Fin基an本ce状] 况 分析师：张潇 股价 EPS PE 简称 PEG 评级 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 (元) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 百亚股份 16.88 0.44 0.55 0.70 0.89 38.36 30.69 24.11 18.97 1.32 买入 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 欧派家居 63.88 4.41 5.08 5.87 6.73 14.49 12.57 10.88 9.49 0.79 买入 分析师：郭美鑫 顾家家居 36.87 2.20 2.52 2.93 3.41 16.76 14.63 12.58 10.81 0.95 买入 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 索菲亚 15.41 1.17 1.47 1.72 2.00 13.17 10.48 8.96 7.71 0.40 买入 志邦家居 ...