分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 货币与资本市场政策落地后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年5月12日 中泰证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 2 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 【市场观察】一季报落地后市场或如何演绎？ 3 • 一、5月货币与资本市场政策落地后市场或如何演绎？ • 政策面上，上周三国新办会议延续"预期管理"思路，更加重视资本市场。在此次会议中，央行推出包 括数量型政策、价格型政策和结构型政策共三大类十项货币政策措施，三类政策呈现由大到小，从总 量到结构的特征。 • 金融监管总局提出八项举措全力巩固经济回升向好的基本面。八项政策围绕地产、二级市场和实体经 济融资各方面提出了政策支持，覆盖较为全面，或反映出监管部门工作更加重视经济发展，监管力度 或呈现阶段性宽松。 • 证监会提出三大举措持续稳定和活跃资本市场。证监会提出将全力巩固市场回稳向好势头、突出服务 新质生产力发展的重要着力点、大力推进中长期资金入市。新质生产力方面，会议提出三大方 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a 2-3 year upward cycle, with potential improvements in performance and valuation [6][12] - The report highlights the successful listing of CATL on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which could be the largest IPO in Hong Kong in four years, targeting a transaction scale of approximately $5 billion [6][12] - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in solid-state battery technology and suggests several key players in the lithium battery supply chain [6][12] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The battery industry index increased by 5.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.303 percentage points [10] - CATL's stock price rose by 7.24%, while other key players like Yiwei Lithium Energy and Hunan Youneng also saw significant gains [10] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in unit profitability for lithium battery companies in Q1 2025, indicating a potential turning point in supply and demand [6][10] Energy Storage Sector - In April 2025, the total bidding capacity for energy storage projects in China reached 10.2GW/30.2GWh [26] - The average bidding price for energy storage systems has decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 29.88% [27] - The report notes the successful bidding results for a 5GWh energy storage project by State Power Investment Corporation, with significant shares awarded to leading companies [29] Electric Power Equipment Sector - The report highlights the completion of China's first "wind-solar-fire-storage integrated" large-scale comprehensive energy base, marking a significant milestone in the power grid sector [6] - The power grid sector is expected to benefit from domestic stimulus measures, with potential increases in investment due to economic downturns [6] Market Trends - The report tracks the sales of electric vehicles in Europe, noting a 30% year-on-year increase in April 2025 [16] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe reached 26.1%, reflecting a 6.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [16] - The report also provides insights into the pricing trends of key materials in the lithium battery supply chain, indicating a decrease in prices for lithium carbonate and other components [19][21]

Core Insights - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks highlights the importance of bilateral economic relations for both countries and the global economy, emphasizing the need for sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial trade relations [2][7] - The statement indicates a commitment to continued dialogue and cooperation, aiming to address economic concerns through open communication and mutual respect [2][7] Group 1: Short-term Market Impact - The recent joint statement serves as a positive signal, alleviating market sentiment and boosting risk appetite, marking a substantial easing of trade tensions since the "reciprocal tariffs" conflict in April [5][9] - Prior to this, the imposition of tariffs as high as 145% and 125% had nearly frozen bilateral trade, significantly impacting supply chain stability, with China's exports to the US dropping by 21.03% year-on-year in April [5][9] - The announcement of a 90-day suspension of new tariffs and the retention of some lower rates is seen as a "cooling" signal, with the Chinese side led by a Vice Premier, indicating a strong commitment to pragmatic negotiations [5][11] Group 2: Medium-term Structural Challenges - Despite the positive tone of the statement, there remain significant structural disagreements, with tariffs unlikely to see substantial reductions in the short term [12][14] - The US has temporarily suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days while retaining a 10% base tariff, indicating that if the 24% tariff is reinstated, the overall tariff level on China could remain above 50% [12][14] - The ongoing competition between China and the US in technology, supply chains, and security suggests that expectations for a systematic reduction in tariffs similar to 2019 are significantly more challenging [12][14] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The easing of trade tensions is expected to boost risk appetite in the short term, particularly benefiting sectors like the Hang Seng Technology Index and export-oriented industries [13][14] - Focus on high-growth sectors such as engineering machinery, power equipment, nuclear power, and non-ferrous metals, which are likely to benefit from global manufacturing expansion [14] - The Hang Seng Technology sector is anticipated to gain from both the AI thematic investment and the easing of US-China relations, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [14]

产能陆续投产，期待模制瓶放量加速 医疗器械 力诺药包（301188.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：孙颖 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 947 | 1,081 | 1,364 | 1,548 | 1,727 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 15% | 14% | 26% | 13% | 12% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 66 | 66 | 119 | 162 | 203 | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -43% | 0% | 80% | 37% | 25% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.87 | | ...

中美关税冲突短期缓和 ——点评中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 2、双方在关税税率上达成较大幅度调降，表明双方对不希望出现贸易脱钩的极端情 况具有共识，关税冲突存在底线。由于谈判达成显著的实质性成果，市场风险偏好有 望短期缓和。 相关报告 3、联合声明强调"双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商"，表明除了税率调降， 双方也达成机制性进展，未来"日内瓦机制"下的 90 天谈判期十分关键。预计美方 将进一步对华展开要价，谈判可能从关税延申至市场开放（加大购买）、服务贸易（知 识产权）以及投资等领域。 4、考虑到特朗普多变的重商主义行事风格、中美意识形态矛盾以及中国经济更加深 入的结构性变化，双方达成类似第一阶段经贸协议的 2.0 版可能会经历一定的博弈过 程，能否在 90 天内达成进展，从而使双方关税不再次急剧转变，还需要进一步观察， 因此不能排除关税反复风险。未来特朗普政府仍有涵盖药品、半导体等领 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.331 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156 million yuan, up 3.59% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing its operational strategies and cost control, which is expected to further enhance profit margins [5] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting total revenues of 2.540 billion yuan and 2.781 billion yuan respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.540 billion yuan, 2.781 billion yuan, and 3.089 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 190 million yuan, 234 million yuan, and 287 million yuan [2][5] - The company’s gross margin improved by 4.37 percentage points to 59.68% in Q1 2025 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.70 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 1.06 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][5] Market and Business Insights - The company experienced a slowdown in revenue growth in mainland China, with a 1.92% increase in 2024, while non-mainland revenue grew by 7.53% [5] - In Taiwan, the company capitalized on AI technology advancements, achieving a 135.07% increase in AI business revenue [5] - The company is enhancing its AI application products and has established partnerships to strengthen its ecosystem [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company has shown a positive operational trend, with expectations for high reliability and volume growth in the future [1][3] - The company reported a revenue of 3.59 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.53%, while the net profit decreased by 20.42% to 573 million yuan [3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 888 million yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.54%, with a net profit of 136 million yuan, down 15.55% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on high-reliability products, with significant growth in the smart meter chip segment, which achieved a revenue increase of 44.90% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3.54 billion yuan - 2024: 3.59 billion yuan - 2025: 4.15 billion yuan (16% growth) - 2026: 5.01 billion yuan (21% growth) - 2027: 6.02 billion yuan (20% growth) [2][3] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 719 million yuan - 2024: 573 million yuan - 2025: 806 million yuan (41% growth) - 2026: 1.11 billion yuan (37% growth) - 2027: 1.34 billion yuan (21% growth) [2][3] - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected at 55.95%, down 5.26 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segment Performance - The revenue breakdown by business segment for 2024 includes: - Security and identification chips: 791 million yuan (down 8.31% year-on-year) - Non-volatile memory: 1.14 billion yuan (up 5.94% year-on-year) - Smart meter chips: 397 million yuan (up 44.90% year-on-year) - FPGA and other chips: 1.13 billion yuan (down 0.51% year-on-year) [3] - The company is the first domestic supplier to obtain WPC certification for security chips, indicating a strong position in the market [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for FPGA in data centers and cloud computing, positioning itself for rapid growth in the coming years [3] - The investment recommendation suggests a downward revision of net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 806 million yuan, 1.11 billion yuan, and 1.34 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46, 33, and 28 [3]

汽车零部件 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070006 Email：baizz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 8,715.67 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 6,924.78 | | 市价(元) | 15.00 | | 市值(百万元) | 130,735.07 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 103,871.77 | 增长可期》2024-11-27 2、《【中泰汽车】潍柴动力 2024 年 一季报点评：天然气重卡高景气， 24Q1 营收同环比增长》2024-05-14 潍柴动力（000338.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何 ...

执业证书编号：S0740523020004 汽车零部件 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070006 Email：baizz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 8,715.67 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 6,924.78 | | 市价(元) | 15.00 | | 市值(百万元) | 130,735.07 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 103,871.77 | 增长可期》2024-11-27 2、《【中泰汽车】潍柴动力 2024 年 一季报点评：天然气重卡高景气， 24Q1 营收同环比增长》2024-05-14 潍柴动力（000338.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何 ...