执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn | | | 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn 分析师：葛玉翔 1、《1Q25 保险资金重仓流通股深度 通信》2025-05-08 | 上市公司数 | 84 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 69,371.23 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 66,910.47 | 2、《改革双刃剑：短期挑战长期价值》 2025-04-22 3、《预定利率研究值跌破 25bps 阈 值，4Q25 或迎产品切换》2025-04-22 非银金融 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 【政策变化与影响】 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 锚定投资者利益，驱动行业升级——公募基金高质量行动方案解 读 报告摘要 【核心举措】 投资者利益保护。1、费率改革：新主动权益基金试点浮动管理费，头部机构 1 年 内 60%新发产品需采用；降 ...

政策催化产业破局，低空运营落地可期 ——低空经济政策与应用专题报告 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 127 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 32,722.44 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 30,360.12 | 设施有望迎来增量资金》2025-05-11 向好关注基础设施》2025-05-04 稳健配置价值不改》2025-04-27 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业专题报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：杜冲 低空经济内涵不断深化，产业图谱日渐丰富：低空经济定义从早期通用航空拓展至覆 盖 0-3000 米空域的立体经济生态，以无人机、eVTOL、直升机为载体，牵引载人载 货、应急消防、文旅等多场景融合。1）应用场景不断丰富：低空旅游观光、低空通 勤、城市末端物流配送、文化赛事等领域已逐步展开试点；安防巡检、消防救援等通 航领域较成熟的应用场景或将在 eVTOL、无人机技术成熟后迎来革新。2）三大载体 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][20] Core Views - The company has shown a profit turning point in Q1, with strong business growth and a reduction in losses from the Shandong project [1][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million yuan, a decrease of 44.5% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and a net profit of 91.88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.2%, marking a return to profitability [4][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 3.737 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 21% for 2024 and 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 329 million yuan, with a projected increase to 449 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.36 yuan in 2023 to 0.50 yuan in 2024 and 0.63 yuan in 2025 [1] Business Segments - The company’s electronic materials, new energy materials, optical film materials, electrical insulation materials, and environmental flame retardant materials achieved revenues of 1.07 billion, 1.38 billion, 1.13 billion, 470 million, and 150 million yuan respectively in 2024, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 30.0%, 5.61%, 17.37%, 29.9%, and 18.1% [4] - In Q1 2025, the electronic materials segment generated 310 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.5%, while the optical film materials segment saw a 42.7% increase [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in the electronic resin business, driven by high-quality developments in emerging fields such as ultra-high voltage power grids and electric vehicles [4][5] - The company’s projects, including the 20,000-ton electronic materials project in Meishan, are anticipated to contribute significantly to future revenues, potentially generating around 2 billion yuan annually once fully operational [4][5]

Group 1: U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal - The U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal is largely a symbolic political gesture, failing to address core bilateral trade issues and structural barriers [14][16]. - The agreement allows the UK to reduce tariffs from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the U.S. maintains a 10% tariff on UK goods, indicating a continuation of U.S. protectionist policies [15][16]. - The deal focuses on traditional goods trade, avoiding sensitive structural issues such as digital trade and labor standards, which are crucial for long-term trade dynamics [16][16]. Group 2: U.S.-China Geneva Talks - The U.S.-China high-level economic talks in Geneva resulted in significant progress, establishing a negotiation mechanism for future discussions [4][18]. - Both parties agreed to modify tariffs on each other's goods by May 14, 2025, with the U.S. suspending 24% of tariffs initially and retaining 10% on certain products [19][20]. - The current stage of negotiations is focused on framework establishment, with future discussions expected to address more substantive issues like technology and investment [20][21]. Group 3: Pring Clock Analysis - The U.S. economic indicators suggest a potential move towards stage five of the Pring Clock, although stock indicators are deteriorating, with a current reading of 58% [6][24]. - China's economic indicators remain in stage three, but both stock and commodity indicators are declining, which is a negative signal during the recovery phase [33][33]. - The bond-stock ratio shows a downward trend, indicating that stocks may perform better than bonds in the short term [33][33].

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 货币与资本市场政策落地后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年5月12日 中泰证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 2 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 【市场观察】一季报落地后市场或如何演绎？ 3 • 一、5月货币与资本市场政策落地后市场或如何演绎？ • 政策面上，上周三国新办会议延续"预期管理"思路，更加重视资本市场。在此次会议中，央行推出包 括数量型政策、价格型政策和结构型政策共三大类十项货币政策措施，三类政策呈现由大到小，从总 量到结构的特征。 • 金融监管总局提出八项举措全力巩固经济回升向好的基本面。八项政策围绕地产、二级市场和实体经 济融资各方面提出了政策支持，覆盖较为全面，或反映出监管部门工作更加重视经济发展，监管力度 或呈现阶段性宽松。 • 证监会提出三大举措持续稳定和活跃资本市场。证监会提出将全力巩固市场回稳向好势头、突出服务 新质生产力发展的重要着力点、大力推进中长期资金入市。新质生产力方面，会议提出三大方 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a 2-3 year upward cycle, with potential improvements in performance and valuation [6][12] - The report highlights the successful listing of CATL on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which could be the largest IPO in Hong Kong in four years, targeting a transaction scale of approximately $5 billion [6][12] - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in solid-state battery technology and suggests several key players in the lithium battery supply chain [6][12] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The battery industry index increased by 5.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.303 percentage points [10] - CATL's stock price rose by 7.24%, while other key players like Yiwei Lithium Energy and Hunan Youneng also saw significant gains [10] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in unit profitability for lithium battery companies in Q1 2025, indicating a potential turning point in supply and demand [6][10] Energy Storage Sector - In April 2025, the total bidding capacity for energy storage projects in China reached 10.2GW/30.2GWh [26] - The average bidding price for energy storage systems has decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 29.88% [27] - The report notes the successful bidding results for a 5GWh energy storage project by State Power Investment Corporation, with significant shares awarded to leading companies [29] Electric Power Equipment Sector - The report highlights the completion of China's first "wind-solar-fire-storage integrated" large-scale comprehensive energy base, marking a significant milestone in the power grid sector [6] - The power grid sector is expected to benefit from domestic stimulus measures, with potential increases in investment due to economic downturns [6] Market Trends - The report tracks the sales of electric vehicles in Europe, noting a 30% year-on-year increase in April 2025 [16] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe reached 26.1%, reflecting a 6.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [16] - The report also provides insights into the pricing trends of key materials in the lithium battery supply chain, indicating a decrease in prices for lithium carbonate and other components [19][21]

Core Insights - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks highlights the importance of bilateral economic relations for both countries and the global economy, emphasizing the need for sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial trade relations [2][7] - The statement indicates a commitment to continued dialogue and cooperation, aiming to address economic concerns through open communication and mutual respect [2][7] Group 1: Short-term Market Impact - The recent joint statement serves as a positive signal, alleviating market sentiment and boosting risk appetite, marking a substantial easing of trade tensions since the "reciprocal tariffs" conflict in April [5][9] - Prior to this, the imposition of tariffs as high as 145% and 125% had nearly frozen bilateral trade, significantly impacting supply chain stability, with China's exports to the US dropping by 21.03% year-on-year in April [5][9] - The announcement of a 90-day suspension of new tariffs and the retention of some lower rates is seen as a "cooling" signal, with the Chinese side led by a Vice Premier, indicating a strong commitment to pragmatic negotiations [5][11] Group 2: Medium-term Structural Challenges - Despite the positive tone of the statement, there remain significant structural disagreements, with tariffs unlikely to see substantial reductions in the short term [12][14] - The US has temporarily suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days while retaining a 10% base tariff, indicating that if the 24% tariff is reinstated, the overall tariff level on China could remain above 50% [12][14] - The ongoing competition between China and the US in technology, supply chains, and security suggests that expectations for a systematic reduction in tariffs similar to 2019 are significantly more challenging [12][14] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The easing of trade tensions is expected to boost risk appetite in the short term, particularly benefiting sectors like the Hang Seng Technology Index and export-oriented industries [13][14] - Focus on high-growth sectors such as engineering machinery, power equipment, nuclear power, and non-ferrous metals, which are likely to benefit from global manufacturing expansion [14] - The Hang Seng Technology sector is anticipated to gain from both the AI thematic investment and the easing of US-China relations, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [14]

产能陆续投产，期待模制瓶放量加速 医疗器械 力诺药包（301188.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：孙颖 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 947 | 1,081 | 1,364 | 1,548 | 1,727 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 15% | 14% | 26% | 13% | 12% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 66 | 66 | 119 | 162 | 203 | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -43% | 0% | 80% | 37% | 25% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.87 | | ...

中美关税冲突短期缓和 ——点评中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 2、双方在关税税率上达成较大幅度调降，表明双方对不希望出现贸易脱钩的极端情 况具有共识，关税冲突存在底线。由于谈判达成显著的实质性成果，市场风险偏好有 望短期缓和。 相关报告 3、联合声明强调"双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商"，表明除了税率调降， 双方也达成机制性进展，未来"日内瓦机制"下的 90 天谈判期十分关键。预计美方 将进一步对华展开要价，谈判可能从关税延申至市场开放（加大购买）、服务贸易（知 识产权）以及投资等领域。 4、考虑到特朗普多变的重商主义行事风格、中美意识形态矛盾以及中国经济更加深 入的结构性变化，双方达成类似第一阶段经贸协议的 2.0 版可能会经历一定的博弈过 程，能否在 90 天内达成进展，从而使双方关税不再次急剧转变，还需要进一步观察， 因此不能排除关税反复风险。未来特朗普政府仍有涵盖药品、半导体等领 ...