Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for China Merchants Bank (CMB) [3][20] Core Views - CMB's revenue decline continues to narrow, with net profit growth turning positive in 2024 [5][9] - Net interest income increased by 2.1% quarter-over-quarter, with loan growth accelerating and interest margins remaining stable [11] - Asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.95% at the end of 2024 [18] - CMB's total assets exceeded 12 trillion yuan, with loan and asset growth rebounding, driven by retail lending recovery in Q4 [17] - Deposit growth was strong, laying a solid foundation for future business expansion [17] Revenue and Profit Analysis - CMB's cumulative revenue in 2024 decreased by 0.5% year-over-year (YoY), compared to a 2.9% decline in Q3 2024 [5][9] - Net profit grew by 1.2% YoY in 2024, reversing a 0.6% decline in Q3 2024 [5][9] - Net interest income declined by 1.6% YoY, but the decline narrowed compared to Q3 2024 [5][9] - Net non-interest income increased by 1.5% YoY, turning positive after a 2.6% decline in Q3 2024 [5][9] Asset and Liability Structure - Total assets grew by 10.2% YoY, with total loans increasing by 5.8% YoY [17] - Total liabilities grew by 9.8% YoY, with total deposits increasing by 11.5% YoY [17] - Loan growth was concentrated in Q1 and Q4, with retail lending expected to drive Q4 growth [17] - Deposit growth was strong, with 941.1 billion yuan in new deposits added in 2024, a significant increase from 2023 [17] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The NPL ratio remained low at 0.95%, with a slight increase of 1 basis point (bp) from Q3 2024 [18] - Provision coverage ratio stood at 411.98%, down 20.2% from Q3 2024, but still at a high level [18] - The loan-to-deposit ratio was 3.92%, down 35 bp from Q3 2024 [18] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - CMB's 2024E-2026E price-to-book (P/B) ratios are 0.99X, 0.86X, and 0.79X, respectively [20] - The 2024E-2026E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 6.85X, 6.74X, and 6.64X, respectively [20] - CMB's strong retail and wealth management capabilities, along with its corporate culture and team, make it a valuable long-term holding [20] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts CMB's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1,483 billion yuan, 1,506 billion yuan, and 1,530 billion yuan for 2024E-2026E, respectively [20]

特钢Ⅱ | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522040004 Email：wupeng@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘耀齐 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq07@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 214.24 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 214.24 | | 市价(元) | 15.82 | | 市值(百万元) | 3,389.30 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 3,389.30 | 相关报告 1、《盈利能力环比改善，风电零部 件放量业绩有望迎拐点》2024-11-25 广大特材（688186.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 01 月 02 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 202 ...

Industry and Company Overview **Industry**: The discussion covers a wide range of industries including automotive, electronics, communication, military, coal, transportation, and food & beverage. **Companies**: The following companies were specifically mentioned: * **Automotive**: BYD * **Communication**: ZTE, Huawei * **Military**: Central Hightech * **Coal**: China Shenhua * **Transportation**: China Eastern Airlines * **Food & Beverage**: Wahaha, Nongfu Spring, Huiyuan Key Points Market Outlook 1. **Market Direction**: The market is expected to experience a high-level switch in December, with a risk of adjustment in mid-December. The main focus of fiscal policy is on risk prevention and national security-related projects, rather than large-scale stimulus measures. [doc 1][doc 2][doc 3] 2. **US-China Trade Relations**: The US administration's stance on trade relations with China is expected to be强硬, leading to potential tensions and countermeasures from China. [doc 3][doc 4][doc 5] 3. **Economic Outlook**: The Chinese economy is expected to maintain stability, with the real estate market showing resilience. [doc 6][doc 7][doc 8] 4. **Regulatory Environment**: The government is expected to continue to support the market, with a focus on structural changes rather than causing panic. [doc 7][doc 8] Investment Opportunities 1. **Automotive**: The automotive industry is expected to see strong growth, driven by policy support and the rise of new energy vehicles. BYD is highlighted as a key player in this sector. [doc 12][doc 13][doc 14][doc 15][doc 16] 2. **Communication**: ZTE and Huawei are expected to benefit from the growth of AI and 5G technologies. [doc 18][doc 19][doc 20][doc 21][doc 22] 3. **Military**: Central Hightech is expected to benefit from the growth of the military industry, driven by new aircraft models and advancements in materials. [doc 24][doc 25][doc 26][doc 27] 4. **Coal**: China Shenhua is expected to benefit from the stable coal market and its high dividend yield. [doc 36][doc 37][doc 38][doc 39] 5. **Transportation**: China Eastern Airlines is expected to benefit from the recovery of the aviation industry and strong demand during the Spring Festival. [doc 40][doc 41][doc 42][doc 43][doc 44] 6. **Food & Beverage**: Wahaha, Nongfu Spring, and Huiyuan are expected to benefit from the growth of the food and beverage industry, driven by changing consumer preferences and increased demand for healthy products. [doc 46][doc 47][doc 48] 7. **Advanced Industries**: Techmore is expected to benefit from the growth of the LCD panel industry and the demand for high-quality materials. [doc 52][doc 53][doc 54][doc 55] 8. **Semiconductors**: Megvii is expected to benefit from the growth of AI and 5G technologies, driven by its strong R&D capabilities and market share. [doc 55][doc 56][doc 57][doc 58] Risks 1. **US-China Trade Relations**: Tensions between the US and China could lead to trade disputes and impact global supply chains. [doc 3][doc 4][doc 5] 2. **Economic Slowdown**: A slowdown in the global economy could impact demand for various industries. [doc 6] 3. **Regulatory Changes**: Changes in regulations could impact certain industries and companies. [doc 7][doc 8] 4. **Competition**: Intense competition in certain industries could impact profitability. [doc 12][doc 13][doc 14][doc 15][doc 16]

Key Points Summary Industry/Company Involved * **Central Economic Work Conference**: Market impact, policy direction, and potential investment opportunities discussed. * **Consumer Stocks**: Theme opportunities identified due to positive conference outcomes. * **Technology Industry**: Focus on AI applications, industrial applications, and security. * **Business Sectors**: Detailed analysis on various sectors including consumer goods, light industry, textiles, machinery, construction materials, chemicals, and media. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Market Impact of Central Economic Work Conference**: * The conference was positive, driving market sentiment and creating new opportunities. * Consumer stocks have thematic opportunities due to the emphasis on consumption. * Debt market yields are expected to decline, and small and medium-sized enterprises are active. * The conference expressed a more positive tone, emphasizing the balance between quality and quantity, acknowledging external challenges, and indicating further monetary policy easing. * Fiscal policy and consumption stimulus measures are expected, including increased deficit ratio, special government bonds, and expanded local government special bonds. * Focus on technology industry security, particularly in AI, AR, AI, and autonomous driving. * Market style and overall direction: Technology remains a mid-term direction, but red chips and state-owned enterprises may be better options in the short term. DPP and other state-industry-oriented sectors are worth attention. * [1] 2. **Consumer Goods Sector**: * Expansion of domestic demand and related sectors are prioritized, with a focus on 2025. * Recommendations include hotel, catering, human resources, and fertility-related sectors. * Shanghai consumption voucher program: Precision targeting, direct impact on offline consumption, and potential for wider implementation. * Hotel sector: RevPAR expected to stabilize or slightly increase, with potential for store expansion and reasonable valuations. * Human resources sector: Policy support and potential for increased valuations. * Catering sector: Potential for increased valuations and rising per capita spending. * [2] 3. **Light Industry and Textiles Sector**: * Focus on the paper industry: Industry bottoming out, competitive rationalization, and potential for improved profitability. * Home furnishings sector: Subsidy opportunities and potential for long-term performance improvement. * [3] 4. **Machinery Sector**: * AI applications in industry: Emphasis on AI's role in industrial production, including product design, production planning, and production processes. * AI detection case studies and benefiting companies: Software-level defect identification, improved detection capabilities, and potential for machine replacement. * [4] 5. **Construction Materials and Chemicals Sector**: * Cyclical direction: Focus on leading white horses with economic recovery expectations and relatively low valuations. * Counter-cyclical direction: Focus on cement-related sectors such as冀东水泥 and新疆板块. * New materials direction: Recommendations for Lianrun New Materials, a leading AI heat dissipation company, and other consumer electronics-related leading companies. * [5] 6. **Media Industry**: * Cyclical direction: Focus on film consumption and advertising marketing in line with the expansion of domestic demand. * Film consumption: Movie subsidy program and potential benefits for cinema line companies and film content production companies. * Advertising marketing: Overall recovery of the marketing industry driven by economic and consumption recovery expectations. * Technology innovation direction: Focus on AI application scenarios in education, companionship, film, marketing, and gaming tools. * State-owned enterprise reform direction: Focus on the integration and development of state-owned cultural enterprises, including tax incentives and resource integration opportunities. * [6]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company is involved in the petrochemical and equipment manufacturing sectors, with a focus on coal chemical projects and overseas market expansion [1][5]. Financial Performance - The third-quarter report indicated a significant profit decline of over 30%, primarily due to issues in the growth segment, including pricing mechanisms and bad debts, resulting in a profit impact of approximately 60-70 million [1]. - The equipment segment also experienced a revenue decline, attributed to longer contract execution cycles and delayed shipment schedules, with expectations for recovery in 2025 and 2026 [2][4]. - The gross margin for the equipment segment improved slightly compared to the first half of the year, while the growth segment's gross margin decreased [3]. Order and Sales Insights - As of September 30, the company had an order backlog of approximately 2.476 billion, with exports accounting for over 46% of this total [3]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 2-2.2 billion for the equipment segment in 2024, with optimistic feedback on order fulfillment [4]. - The coal chemical segment constitutes about 30-40% of the company's order backlog, with significant contributions from synthetic ammonia and other related projects [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The company is optimistic about overseas market opportunities, particularly in coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, with ten projects already in progress [8]. - The domestic market has seen a shift in strategy due to intense price competition, leading to adjustments in sales expectations and gross margin levels [4][5]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from rising procurement prices and government price controls, which have negatively impacted profit margins by approximately 40-50 million [14]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, particularly in Shandong, affecting downstream operations and profitability [13][14]. Future Outlook - The company is cautiously optimistic about 2025 and 2026, expecting a recovery in performance based on current order trends and market conditions [15]. - There is a potential for increased dividend payouts in the future, contingent on capital expenditure levels and cash flow stability [11]. Additional Insights - The company has a competitive edge in the overseas market, with gross margins exceeding 40%, compared to domestic margins below 30% [16]. - The equipment investment in coal chemical projects varies significantly, with project costs ranging from several million to over a billion [7]. - The company is actively pursuing market expansion in regions like Europe and the Middle East, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and quality [18][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's current status, market dynamics, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoints - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued the "Guidelines for Market Value Management of Listed Companies," which encourages listed companies to enhance their investment value through mergers and acquisitions, cash dividends, and other legal methods [3] - The guidelines emphasize the need for listed companies to focus on their core business, improve operational efficiency, and profitability, while also encouraging the formulation of medium- and long-term dividend plans [3] - State-owned cultural enterprises are expected to benefit from these policies due to their abundant cash reserves and resource advantages, which could lead to increased competitiveness through resource integration and mergers [3] Industry Analysis - The guidelines specifically target major index component companies, such as those in the CSI 300 and CSI A500 indices, requiring them to establish market value management systems [3] - Long-term undervalued companies are also required to develop valuation enhancement plans [3] - State-owned cultural enterprises are highlighted for their potential to leverage policy support to accelerate resource integration and enhance their competitive position in the industry [3] Investment Opportunities - State-owned cultural enterprises with strong cash reserves and resource advantages are seen as attractive investment opportunities [3] - Private media companies that have already disclosed external mergers and acquisitions are also recommended for attention [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains an **Overweight** rating [1] Core Views - The Chinese traditional medicine industry is experiencing a **slight recovery in terminal demand**, with expectations of a turning point in 2025 [3][5] - The industry's performance is under **short-term pressure**, but **operational quality is improving steadily** [5][12] - **OTC (Over-the-Counter) companies** show resilience, with slight improvements in Q3 2024 [18] - **Cost pressures** from rising raw material prices are expected to ease starting in 2025, leading to a recovery in gross margins [20][25] Key Company Performance - **Huaren Sanjiu (华润三九)**: Maintains a **Buy** rating with EPS projections of 2.61 (2024E), 3.02 (2025E), and 3.47 (2026E) [2] - **Dong-E-E-Jiao (东阿阿胶)**: Rated **Buy** with EPS expected to grow from 2.33 (2024E) to 3.43 (2026E) [2] - **Taiji Group (太极集团)**: Also rated **Buy**, with EPS forecasts of 1.32 (2024E), 1.56 (2025E), and 1.81 (2026E) [2] - **Tongrentang (同仁堂)**: Rated **Buy**, with EPS projections of 1.43 (2024E), 1.67 (2025E), and 1.87 (2026E) [2] - **Fangsheng Pharmaceutical (方盛制药)**: Rated **Buy**, with EPS expected to rise from 0.65 (2024E) to 0.91 (2026E) [2] Industry Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Total revenue for 63 traditional medicine companies in Q3 2024 was **260.8 billion yuan**, a **3.25% YoY decline** [5][12] - **Net Profit**: Non-GAAP net profit was **27.6 billion yuan**, down **8.59% YoY** [5][12] - **Gross Margin**: The industry's gross margin was **42.19%**, a **2.51pp YoY decline**, primarily due to rising raw material costs [5][12] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow was **19.43 billion yuan**, a **17.59% YoY decline** [5][12] Operational Efficiency - **Sales Expense Ratio**: The median sales expense ratio for the industry was **31.9%**, a **1.5pp YoY decline**, reflecting improved cost control [25] - **Accounts Receivable**: Accounts receivable as a percentage of total revenue was **32.8%**, showing a slight improvement in Q3 2024 [27] - **Inventory Turnover**: Inventory turnover improved, with inventory as a percentage of total assets at **13.0%** [27] Market Trends - **Retail Pharmacy Market**: The retail pharmacy market size (including drugs and non-drugs) in China was **384.8 billion yuan** for Jan-Sep 2024, a **2.2% YoY decline** [33] - **Monthly Recovery**: The market showed signs of recovery in July-September 2024, with **0.9% YoY growth in September** [33] - **OTC Segment**: OTC companies demonstrated resilience, with median revenue and non-GAAP net profit growth of **-0.1% and +4.2%** respectively in Q3 2024 [18] Future Outlook - **2025 Recovery**: The industry is expected to return to **normalized growth** in 2025, with easing cost pressures and improving gross margins [6][20] - **Key Investment Themes**: Focus on **state-owned enterprise reform** (e.g., Huaren Sanjiu, Dong-E-E-Jiao) and **companies with strong operational trends** (e.g., Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Zuoli Pharmaceutical) [6]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Jianghai Capacitor (002484 SZ) [2][4] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance under pressure due to weak downstream demand, but strong growth momentum in three key areas: aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors [3] - Significant progress in new energy and AI fields, with MLPC (AI server key component) achieving major breakthroughs, indicating substantial future growth potential [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 1 175 million, down 9 94% YoY and 10 48% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 147 million, down 20 98% YoY and 30 2% QoQ [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 25 27%, down 0 63 ppts YoY and 0 75 ppts QoQ, while net margin was 12 57%, down 1 79 ppts YoY and 3 67 ppts QoQ [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecast for 2024/2025/2026: RMB 5 308/6 211/7 298 million, with YoY growth of 10%/17%/18% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecast for 2024/2025/2026: RMB 719/903/1 094 million, with YoY growth of 2%/26%/21% [2] - EPS forecast for 2024/2025/2026: RMB 0 85/1 06/1 29 [2] - P/E ratios for 2024/2025/2026: 19 2x/15 3x/12 6x [2] Business Highlights - Jianghai Capacitor is one of the few global companies engaged in R&D, manufacturing, and sales of three major types of capacitors, with products widely used in smart home appliances, 5G communication, photovoltaic and wind power, energy storage, rail transit, data and image processing, industrial automation, and robotics [3] - The company has formed strategic alliances through international cooperation and rapidly entered the automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles [3] - In the aluminum electrolytic capacitor sector, the company is consolidating and expanding its market share in industrial control, new energy, and automotive fields, while advancing MLPC and hybrid capacitors in high-end markets [3] - In the film capacitor sector, the company is focusing on new energy and electric vehicle applications, accelerating capacity expansion and technological upgrades to meet rapidly growing customer demand [3] - In the supercapacitor sector, the company is contributing solutions to global grid intelligence transformation, comprehensive energy storage, energy conservation, and green manufacturing [3] Valuation and Recommendations - Based on the closing price on 2024/11/18, the company's P/E ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are 19x/15x/13x, supporting the maintained "Buy" rating [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains an **Overweight** rating [1] Core Views - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with sales area and sales amount improving in October 2024, driven by policy relaxation and market confidence restoration [6][19] - Investment in the real estate sector continues to decline, with new construction starts falling, while completion data shows a slight improvement [7][33] - Funding sources for real estate developers have shown a slight recovery, with expectations of further improvement due to policy support [8][37] - Policy relaxation continues, with housing prices showing a year-on-year decline, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize [38] Key Company Performance - **Poly Development**: Current stock price is 10.11 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 1.53 in 2022 to 1.27 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **China Merchants Property Operation & Service**: Current stock price is 10.95 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.56 in 2022 to 1.19 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services**: Current stock price is 30.75 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.97 in 2022 to 2.23 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **Poly Property**: Current stock price is 31.30 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 2.01 in 2022 to 3.93 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [3] Industry Macro Data Summary - From January to October 2024, the sales area of commercial housing was 77,930 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, with residential sales area down by 17.7% [15] - The sales amount of commercial housing was 7,685.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, with residential sales amount down by 22.0% [15] - National real estate development investment was 8,630.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with residential investment down by 10.4% [15] Sales Recovery and Policy Impact - Sales area and sales amount in October 2024 showed significant improvement, with sales area up by 1.3 percentage points and sales amount up by 1.8 percentage points compared to September 2024 [19] - Policy relaxation, including lower mortgage rates and relaxed purchase restrictions, has contributed to the recovery in sales [19] Investment and Construction Trends - Real estate investment in January-October 2024 decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, with new construction starts down by 22.6% and completion area down by 23.9% [33] - Despite the decline in investment, the completion area showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.5 percentage points compared to September 2024 [33] Funding Sources and Future Outlook - Funding sources for real estate developers improved slightly, with a 0.8 percentage point increase in the growth rate of funds received compared to September 2024 [37] - Policy support, including increased credit quotas for project financing, is expected to further improve funding conditions [37] Policy Relaxation and Housing Prices - Housing prices continue to decline year-on-year, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize due to ongoing policy relaxation [38] - The central government's policy stance of "stabilizing the market" is expected to support a gradual recovery in housing prices [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong performance and high safety margins, particularly those operating in first- and second-tier cities [45] - Key companies to watch include **Binjiang Group**, **Chengdu Hi-Tech**, **China Merchants Shekou**, **Huafa Group**, and **Poly Development** [45] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like **Beike**, **Greentown China**, **Yuexiu Property**, and **China Resources Land** are recommended [45]

Group 1 - The report discusses the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024, which includes 24 specific aluminum product codes [1][17]. - Export tax rebates have been a significant policy since 1985, contributing to China's position as the world's largest goods trader, with rebates increasing from 1.04 trillion yuan in 2012 to 1.71 trillion yuan in 2023 [18]. - Historical analysis shows that the cancellation of export tax rebates in 2007 led to a significant decline in aluminum exports, with aluminum alloy hollow profiles experiencing a 22% year-on-year drop in July 2007 [20][23]. Group 2 - The impact of the recent cancellation of export tax rebates varies by industry; while aluminum and copper industries may face short-term cost increases and profit declines, it could encourage a shift towards higher value-added products in the long run [29][30]. - The solar and battery industries will still benefit from some level of tax rebate, helping maintain their competitiveness in international markets despite a reduction in rebate rates [29][30]. - The report indicates that the overall economic environment is showing signs of stabilization, with industrial production and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing remaining strong, supported by fiscal policy [42][43].