Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company has faced performance pressure in the third quarter, primarily due to weak demand in the zeolite molecular sieve and pharmaceutical sectors, alongside increased financial costs and R&D investments [1] - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to gradually alleviate business pressures as the automotive product cycle recovers and new market opportunities are explored in the petrochemical and adsorption sectors [1] - The company emphasizes R&D and collaboration, with significant investments in new materials and semiconductor manufacturing materials, which are projected to contribute to future growth [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan) for 2022A was 5,080, with a projected decline to 4,305 in 2023A and further to 3,744 in 2024E, before recovering to 4,652 in 2025E and 5,587 in 2026E [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan) is expected to decrease from 721 in 2022A to 763 in 2023A, then drop significantly to 408 in 2024E, before rebounding to 547 in 2025E and 718 in 2026E [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan) are projected to decline from 0.78 in 2022A to 0.82 in 2023A, then drop to 0.44 in 2024E, with a recovery to 0.59 in 2025E and 0.77 in 2026E [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its core competitiveness through structural improvements and expanding its market presence in high-potential sectors [1] - The report highlights the company's commitment to innovation and R&D, with a focus on developing next-generation products to meet evolving market demands [1] Future Outlook - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of 408 million, 547 million, and 718 million for the years 2024-2026 respectively [1] - The company is expected to maintain a "Buy" rating due to its potential for high growth in various business segments, despite the current market pressures [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in performance in Q3 2024, with significant order growth expected to drive future growth. The revenue for Q3 reached its highest level in nearly three years, with a year-on-year increase of 6.43% and a net profit growth of 19.34% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its international market presence while consolidating its domestic business. It has made significant strides in emergency markets, international markets, and rental markets, which are expected to contribute to stable growth [1][2]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 predict revenues of 17.9 billion, 22.9 billion, and 27.5 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 28%, and 20% respectively. Net profits are expected to be 2.84 billion, 3.53 billion, and 4.26 billion yuan, with growth rates of 37%, 25%, and 21% [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1,352 million yuan, with a projected increase to 1,794 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 33% [1][6]. - The net profit for 2023 was 206 million yuan, expected to rise to 284 million yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 38% [1][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.20 yuan in 2023 to 0.27 yuan in 2024 [1][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market position in the high-altitude operation vehicle sector, with a significant market share and a focus on high-end development [1][2]. - The strategy of "deepening domestic and expanding internationally" has been adopted, with efforts to build a sales system in Southeast Asia, Russia, and Central Asia [2][5]. Operational Efficiency - The company has reported improvements in gross margin and net profit margin, attributed to high sales growth and a sufficient order backlog [1][2]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 336 million yuan, with expectations of fluctuations in the following years due to various operational factors [5][6].

Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of the recent U.S. presidential election, where Trump is expected to take office, and the potential market impacts of this outcome [2] - It highlights the likelihood of a Republican-controlled Congress, which may facilitate Trump's policy implementation [2] - The report emphasizes Trump's aggressive stance on economic, industrial, and foreign policies compared to his opponent [2] Economic Policy - Trump's economic policies are expected to focus on tax cuts to stimulate the economy, with a preference for domestic tax reductions and increased tariffs on foreign goods [2] - Both candidates support tax cuts, but Trump's approach is more aggressive regarding tariffs and immigration policies [2] Industrial Policy - The report outlines Trump's inclination towards traditional energy sources and the repatriation of manufacturing jobs, contrasting with Harris's focus on modern manufacturing [2] - Both parties aim to maintain U.S. technological superiority, but their methods differ significantly [2] Trade and Foreign Policy - The report notes that Trump's administration is likely to maintain high tariff rates on China, with a strong possibility of implementing these tariffs [2] - The potential for legislative changes regarding China's most-favored-nation status is highlighted as a significant concern [2] Market Expectations - The report suggests that the market should prepare for unexpected outcomes following the election, particularly regarding Trump's potential for more radical policies due to increased control over his cabinet [2] - It indicates that the market has already begun to react to Trump's anticipated victory, with movements in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bond yields observed since late September [2] Domestic Policy Context - The report emphasizes that domestic policy expectations remain a primary driver of market performance, with Trump's victory not directly altering this trajectory [2] - It mentions the importance of upcoming policy announcements and decisions from the Chinese government as critical indicators for market sentiment [2]

Trade Data Summary - In October 2024, China's exports reached $309.06 billion, while imports were $213.34 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $95.72 billion, the second highest this year[1] - Year-on-year, exports increased by 12.7%, and imports decreased by 2.3%, showing significant changes from September's figures of +10.3 percentage points and -2.6 percentage points respectively[1] - The combined export growth for September and October was 7.4%, lower than August's 8.7% but higher than the year-to-date average of 5.1%[1] Country-Specific Performance - Exports to ASEAN, EU, and the US saw year-on-year increases of 15.8%, 12.7%, and 8.1% respectively, contributing nearly half of the total export growth of 12.7%[1] - The contribution from these three major trading partners improved by 4.1 percentage points compared to September[1] - Exports to emerging markets, including Russia, Latin America, and Africa, also improved, contributing an additional 2.7 percentage points to total export growth[1] Product-Level Insights - Most key industries, except for the automotive sector, saw an increase in year-on-year export growth in October[1] - The automotive sector contributed 0.5 percentage points to total export growth, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from September[1] - Textile and production equipment exports showed significant improvement, marking their highest growth rates of the year in October[1] Future Outlook and Risks - The trend of weakening exports is expected to continue, with three key variables to monitor: automotive export performance, resilience of demand from emerging economies, and the impact of US-China trade relations post-election[1] - The automotive sector may face further declines due to tariff pressures, particularly with the EU's recent imposition of anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles[1] - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and shifts in international policies[1]

Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, the overall revenue growth rate for A-shares was -0.91%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points from Q2[6] - The net profit growth rate for A-shares was -0.52%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points from Q2[6] - Non-financial and non-petroleum sectors saw a revenue decline of -1.59% in Q3, down 0.65 percentage points from Q2, and a net profit decline of -7.42%, down 0.99 percentage points from Q2[6] Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector experienced a revenue growth rate of 15.7% and a net profit growth rate of 41.2% in Q3[15] - The real estate sector faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of 23.2% and a net profit decline of 148.3% year-on-year, although it showed a 19.5% increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter[15] - The consumer sector, particularly in home appliances and automobiles, showed revenue growth rates of 4.1% and 5.4%, respectively, but faced quarter-on-quarter declines[16] ROE and PB-ROE Trends - The overall ROE for A-shares in Q3 was 8.14%, up 0.12 percentage points from Q2, while the ROE for non-financial sectors was 7.15%, down 0.13 percentage points[12] - The PB-ROE ratio for the non-bank financial sector improved, with ROE percentile rising to 28.5%, an increase of 23.7 percentage points from Q2[22] - The PB values across all sectors improved in Q3 compared to Q2, indicating a recovery in valuations[19] Investment Insights - Industries with both PB and ROE at low levels may present investment opportunities as they show potential for improvement[17] - Caution is advised in sectors where PB has rapidly increased without corresponding ROE growth, indicating potential overvaluation risks[18] - The consumer sector, particularly agriculture, saw a significant ROE percentile increase to 57.1%, up 37.6 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in consumer sentiment[27]

中泰证券研究所 专业｜领先｜深度｜诚信 ｜证券研究报告｜ 出版三季报总结：主业平稳，稳中前行 2024 . 1 1 . 0 7 中泰证券·传媒互联网研究团队 康雅雯 S0740515080001 李昱喆 S0740524090002 资料来源：各公司公告 Wind 中泰证券研究所（备注：股价与市值数据截至2024年11月06日） 2 核心观点 出版观点总结： 2024Q1-Q3出版行业营收1,030.6亿元，同比减少2.0%；归母净利润93.6亿元，同比减少27.1%。2024Q3营收319.5亿元，同比减少6.9%；归母净利润22.0亿元，同比减少36.7%。营收 及利润在税收政策变化带来所得税费用增加叠加教材教辅征订节奏偏慢、一般图书消费复苏偏弱情况下有所承压。其中，央企出版集团经营端面临一定挑战，费用率稳定；地方国企 出版集团经营整体平稳，稳控费用支出，分红金额稳中有升；民营出版公司业绩继续分化，费用率波动较大。出版市场景气度后续有望随着步入Q4图书促销活动密集期带动图书销售 量上升，逐步回暖。 我们持续看好出版公司运用国有背书、账上现金优势，加大对外并购以及资本运作力度，提高资金使用效率。同时，出版公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The gaming industry is gradually recovering, but business adjustments have impacted revenue release [1] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue due to structural adjustments in its digital marketing segment and fluctuations in gaming recharge flow [1] - The company's flagship fishing game product has shown signs of recovery, which is expected to positively influence future revenue [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 3,915 - 2023A: 4,307 (10% YoY growth) - 2024E: 3,978 (-8% YoY) - 2025E: 4,324 (9% YoY) - 2026E: 4,612 (7% YoY) [1] - **Net Profit (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 349 - 2023A: 562 (61% YoY growth) - 2024E: 618 (10% YoY growth) - 2025E: 705 (14% YoY growth) - 2026E: 753 (7% YoY growth) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (CNY)**: - 2023A: 1.36 - 2024E: 1.50 - 2025E: 1.71 - 2026E: 1.83 [2] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 17% - 2024E: 16% - 2025E: 16% - 2026E: 14% [1] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - 2023A: 19.7 - 2024E: 17.6 - 2025E: 15.4 - 2026E: 14.4 [1] - **Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)**: - 2023A: 3.4 - 2024E: 2.9 - 2025E: 2.5 - 2026E: 2.2 [1] Market Performance - The company's stock price has been affected by adjustments in the digital marketing sector and fluctuations in gaming revenue, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue [1] - The company aims to focus on higher-margin businesses in its marketing segment, which is expected to improve profitability in the future [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing high growth in orders and performance, with a significant recovery in the consumer electronics sector driving sales of its flagship product, the drilling and milling machine [1][2] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, contributing to revenue growth [1] - The introduction of high-end five-axis CNC machines is gaining traction, with several models achieving mass sales, indicating a growing revenue stream from this segment [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 4,527 - 2023A: 3,529 - 2024E: 4,652 - 2025E: 5,856 - 2026E: 7,272 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -22% - 2024E: 32% - 2025E: 26% - 2026E: 24% [1] - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 335 - 2023A: 194 - 2024E: 376 - 2025E: 514 - 2026E: 686 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -42% - 2024E: 94% - 2025E: 36% - 2026E: 33% [1] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2022A: 0.20 - 2023A: 0.12 - 2024E: 0.23 - 2025E: 0.31 - 2026E: 0.41 [1] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized as a leader in the drilling and milling machine market, with a strong market share in the consumer electronics sector [1] - The flagship drilling machine is utilized for precision machining of mobile phones, tablets, and metal structural components, competing effectively with international leaders [1] - The company has established strong relationships with major domestic electronics manufacturers, enhancing its market position [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth driven by several factors, including increased demand for titanium alloy mobile phone frames, ongoing recovery in the consumer electronics sector, and rising mobile phone sales [1] - The five-axis high-end machine segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with increasing brand recognition and customer acceptance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 386 million in Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 92% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 210 million, up 154% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 990 million, a 91% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 520 million, reflecting a 170% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company’s product, Wei Yi Mei, has surpassed one million units sold since its launch, and it has established a presence in over 3,000 medical beauty terminals as of the first half of 2024 [1]. - The collagen sector remains highly prosperous, with stable pricing and a declaration from the company to not authorize online platforms or social media for sales, suggesting expected price stability [1]. - The company has received its first overseas medical device registration certificate for its subcutaneous filler in Vietnam, marking a significant step in its international expansion [4]. - The company has formed a strategic partnership with L'Oréal to incorporate recombinant human collagen into its products, further enhancing its international market presence [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 1.412 billion for 2024, 1.977 billion for 2025, and 2.570 billion for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 81%, 40%, and 30% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 701 million in 2024, 1.013 billion in 2025, and 1.304 billion in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 134%, 44%, and 29% respectively [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 93.6%, with a year-over-year increase of 2.3 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [3]. - The company’s overall net profit margin reached 54.6%, remaining stable compared to Q2 while improving by 13% year-over-year [3]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the high-demand collagen market, with a strong product pipeline and ongoing research and development efforts [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the progress of new product registrations and market expansions as potential catalysts for future growth [4].

周大生（002867.SZ） 饰品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 06 日 金价抑制需求，基本面短期承压 ——周大生 2024Q3 业绩点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...