Group 1 - The report highlights that U.S. Treasury yields have risen to approximately 4.3%, up 70 basis points from the previous month's low, reflecting strong economic fundamentals, an unavoidable increase in fiscal deficits, and the return of the "Trump trade" [1][6][7] - The strong reality of the U.S. economy is supported by better-than-expected economic data, including non-farm payrolls and retail sales, which have driven real interest rates from 1.58% to 1.93% [1][9][12] - The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit for FY2024 is projected to reach $1.833 trillion, with a deficit-to-GDP ratio exceeding 6% for the second consecutive year, leading to increased supply-side pressure on yields [1][12][13] Group 2 - The report indicates a significant differentiation in market pricing regarding Trump's potential policy mix, with risk assets reflecting optimism about economic growth while safe-haven assets show concern over policy uncertainty [2][17] - The current market may be overpricing Trump's chances of winning the election, which could lead to a reversal in asset pricing logic, particularly if Harris's proposed policies result in a lower expansion of fiscal deficits [2][21][23] - Investment recommendations suggest gradually accumulating positions in sectors like non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and power equipment, which are less affected by U.S. election outcomes [2][24]

Investment Rating - Rating: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic expectations have strengthened again, leading to an anticipated rise in coal prices as winter storage approaches, making it easier for prices to increase than to decrease [10] - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the supply-side reform that has effectively reduced excess capacity, with a total of 1.1 billion tons of outdated capacity eliminated [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of buying leading companies with integrated assets and strong dividend attributes, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as coal-electricity integrated companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [10] Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The coal industry is in a high prosperity phase, driven by a supply-side reform that has significantly reduced excess capacity [9] - The demand for coal is expected to grow steadily, supported by national economic growth and the coal's role in the energy system [9][10] 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides various coal price indices, including the Qinhuangdao power coal price and the average price of Shanxi-produced coal, indicating fluctuations in prices [14] - As of October 25, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced main coking coal is reported at 1,760.00 CNY/ton, down 150.00 CNY/ton from the previous week [14] 3. Industry Performance - The report tracks the operational performance of key companies, highlighting production and sales figures for major coal producers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [11][12][13] - For instance, China Shenhua reported a coal production of 26.6 million tons in September 2024, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [11] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and those likely to benefit from improving market conditions, particularly in the coking coal sector [10] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Huaihe Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua (601088.SH) [1][2][4] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations due to improvements in both coal and electricity sectors [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026, with expected revenues of 344.08 billion, 353.30 billion, and 358.87 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 63.52 billion, 65.09 billion, and 67.03 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 6% in 2024 [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 253.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.57% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 46.00 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.53% year-on-year [1] - The average price of self-produced coal in Q3 was 579 yuan/ton, a decrease of 531 yuan/ton year-on-year [1] Coal Sector - The sales structure improved with a significant increase in long-term contracts, leading to a rise in overall sales prices [1] - The company's self-produced coal sales volume reached 3.45 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.91% [1] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 2.84% year-on-year [1] Electricity Sector - Total power generation for the first three quarters was 1681.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.68% [1] - The average selling price of electricity was 396.1 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 3.55% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit from electricity sales was 49.66 yuan/MWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.99% [2] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 40.93 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.8X for 2024, 12.5X for 2025, and 12.1X for 2026 [2][3] - The projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 3.20 yuan, 3.28 yuan, and 3.37 yuan respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the luxury goods industry [2]. Core Insights - The underlying logic of luxury goods demand is driven by individual self-positioning in a democratic society, where luxury brands serve as symbols to satisfy top-tier users' social positioning needs [2][7]. - The luxury goods industry is entering a new normal characterized by significant differentiation, with core customers contributing disproportionately to demand [2][8]. - The best single-brand company, Hermès, demonstrates more stability compared to multi-brand companies like LVMH, achieving the highest revenue and profit growth rates with minimal volatility over the past 14 years [2][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Underlying Logic of the Luxury Goods Industry - Luxury goods fulfill the self-positioning needs of individuals in a democratic society, where consumption becomes a means of social status [7]. - The industry is experiencing a new normal of differentiation, with a clear divide between core and non-core customers [8]. 2. Differentiation: The Case of Hermès - Hermès has established itself as a model for luxury brand operations by continuously enhancing brand prestige and controlling supply to maintain scarcity [2][25]. - The report highlights that Hermès' core product, the Birkin bag, has a customer base that represents only 0.04% of all luxury consumers, showcasing extreme scarcity and strong pricing power [2]. 3. Investment Opportunities in Luxury Goods - Long-term investment should focus on Hermès at the bottom of the cycle, while short-term opportunities can be found in brands like Prada and Gucci, which exhibit fashion elasticity [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adhering to principles over mere resource endowment in luxury brand management, suggesting that Chinese companies have the potential to succeed in this space [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 141 million yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.34%. However, the net profit for the same period slightly decreased by 0.86% to 18.51 million yuan [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 365 million yuan, up 18.15% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 2.69% to 53.21 million yuan [2]. - The company is investing heavily in fixed assets and construction projects, with significant increases of 941% and 422% respectively, indicating a strong focus on distributed photovoltaic and user-side energy storage projects [2]. - A recent capital increase application has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term development [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 555 million yuan, 680 million yuan, and 819 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 99 million yuan, 135 million yuan, and 179 million yuan [1][2]. - The expected P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 45.0, 33.2, and 25.1 respectively, indicating a positive outlook on valuation [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 626 million yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [2] - The revenue growth in Q3 was under pressure due to weak recovery in gifting scenarios, with Q3 revenue at 1.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% [2] - The company benefits from cost advantages, leading to a significant improvement in overall net profit margin, which increased by 2.27 percentage points to 15.55% in Q3 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 6.883 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15%. In 2023, revenue decreased to 6.806 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1%. Forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.441 billion yuan, 8.249 billion yuan, and 9.108 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 11%, and 10% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan in 2022, dropping to 803 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to rise to 1.006 billion yuan in 2024, 1.141 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.315 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 25%, 13%, and 15% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) were 1.93 yuan in 2022, decreasing to 1.58 yuan in 2023, and are projected to be 1.98 yuan in 2024, 2.25 yuan in 2025, and 2.59 yuan in 2026 [2] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product channels and improving demand. It aims to strengthen its high-end sunflower seed brand "Kuaizhen" and enhance its nut product offerings [2] - The company is actively pursuing market expansion in third and fourth-tier cities and county markets, while also developing new channels such as snack wholesale, membership stores, and community group buying [2] - Internationally, the company is concentrating on deepening its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Indonesia [2] Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates continued cost advantages, with a projected net profit of 1.006 billion yuan for 2024, 1.141 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.315 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 improved by 6.31 percentage points to 33.11% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The upcoming winter-spring flight season is expected to see a continuous recovery in international flights, with domestic airlines planning to operate 95,968 domestic flights weekly, which is roughly in line with last year's figures [2][3] - The report highlights that the aviation industry is on a positive recovery trend, with improved flight operation efficiency and a favorable supply-demand balance expected to enhance airline performance [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,254.26 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 29,747.15 billion [2] - The transportation sector saw a weekly increase of 1.9%, outperforming the broader market, with logistics, aviation, and shipping indices showing significant gains [2] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily average flight operations varied among airlines from October 21 to October 25, with Southern Airlines operating 2,210.40 flights (down 0.46% week-on-week) and Eastern Airlines at 2,229.60 flights (down 0.88%) [2][11] - The average aircraft utilization rate for Southern Airlines was 7.80 hours per day, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.27% [2][11] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include: - **Hua Xia Airlines**: Expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 24.72X, 10.55X, and 8.94X, with a focus on regional market growth and government subsidies [11] - **Spring Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios are 15.97X, 12.62X, and 11.85X, benefiting from cost control and market leadership in low-cost travel [11] - **Jixiang Airlines**: Anticipated P/E ratios are 15.54X, 9.16X, and 8.44X, with a strategy to cover all passenger segments [11] - **China Southern Airlines**: Expected P/E ratios are 32.87X, 12.21X, and 9.29X, focusing on building comprehensive international hubs [11] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios are 39.43X, 11.63X, and 8.93X, with a strong position in key international routes [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 38.61% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 2.872 billion yuan, and a 67.79% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 353 million yuan [2][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in liquid cooling technology driven by AI developments, with a projected doubling of related revenue in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [1]. - The company has successfully secured large liquid cooling projects in Southeast Asia and has been recognized for its advanced cooling solutions validated by major tech firms like Intel [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3.529 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.746 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 35% growth rate [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 344 million yuan in 2023 to 552 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 60% growth rate [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.61 yuan in 2023 to 0.75 yuan in 2024 [2][3]. Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of approximately 31.73% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The operating expense ratio has improved, decreasing to 18.88% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 2.97 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin has increased to 12.25%, up 1.89 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a leading provider of precision temperature control and energy-saving solutions, with a comprehensive liquid cooling solution capability [3]. - The expansion into electronic cooling products is expected to further enhance growth opportunities, particularly in the context of increasing AI computing power and energy storage installations [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 36% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 33% year-on-year. The strong performance is attributed to the delivery of automotive customer orders, particularly high-value overseas orders [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a high-quality candidate for domestic substitution in automotive-grade pressure sensors, with ongoing development in torque sensors expected to enhance performance further [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached 662 million yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year [2]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for Q3 2024 was 27.17 million yuan, up 33% year-on-year, while the net profit for the first three quarters was 62.40 million yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year [2]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.55%, a slight increase of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 9.43%, down 1.71 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - **Cash Flow**: The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 92.86 million yuan, a 47% increase year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow generation [2]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth, with projected net profits of 97 million yuan in 2024, 127 million yuan in 2025, and 179 million yuan in 2026. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 47, 36, and 25 times, respectively [3].

洁美科技（002859.SZ） 其他电子Ⅱ 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 25 日 Email：liubw@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------------|----------| | | | | 基本状况 | | | 总股本 (百万股) | 430.91 | | 流通股本(百万股 ) | 405.59 | | 市价(元 ) | 19.89 | | 市值(百万元 ) | 8,570.84 | | 流通市值(百万元 ) | 8,067.09 | 相关报告 1、《【中泰电子】洁美科技：24H1 业 绩稳健，新品放量未来增长可期》 2024-08-18 2、《【中泰电子】洁美科技：23 年业 绩亮眼，新品放量未来增长可期》 2024-04-16 洁美科技：24Q3 业绩稳健，新品放量未来增长可期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------|-------|--- ...