Industry Rating - The industry rating is "Stronger than the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Injection pens are a key tool for self-administration of drugs and a core cost component of GLP-1 drugs [3] - The market space for injection pens is expected to double due to the demand for weight loss, with a total market size exceeding 40 billion yuan by 2030 [3] - Injection pens are composed of a cap, cartridge holder, cartridge (with rubber stopper), needle, and mechanical device, presenting opportunities in production and OEM, as well as in the rubber stopper industry [3] - The global GLP-1 market is expanding rapidly, driven by weight loss indications, with significant demand for related devices [8] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to see a surge in injection pen demand by 2025 as GLP-1 drugs enter mass production [8] Injection Pens - Injection pens are primarily used for self-administration and are a core cost component of GLP-1 drugs [6] - The global GLP-1 market is growing rapidly, with significant demand for injection pens driven by weight loss indications [8] - The market for injection pens is expected to reach 26.4 billion yuan by 2030, with a total market size exceeding 40 billion yuan [16] - Global supply of injection pens is limited, with domestic manufacturers rapidly expanding and securing large orders [18] - Ypsomed, a global leader in injection pen OEM, has seen steady growth and holds a strong patent portfolio [22] Rubber Stoppers - Rubber stoppers are widely used in pharmaceutical packaging, with the global market expected to reach 10 billion USD [27] - Film-coated rubber stoppers are replacing conventional rubber stoppers due to their superior barrier properties and ability to maintain drug quality and safety [27] - Domestic penetration of film-coated rubber stoppers is low compared to developed countries, but demand is expected to grow due to higher drug quality requirements and the development of high-end biologics [27] - The global market for film-coated rubber stoppers is expected to grow from 3.34 billion yuan in 2021 to 4.06 billion yuan in 2025 [27] Beneficiary Companies - **Meihao Medical**: A leader in precision medical devices, with a strong position in liquid silicone rubber technology and a growing injection pen OEM business [37] - **Hualan Biological**: A domestic leader in pharmaceutical rubber stoppers, benefiting from the increasing penetration of film-coated rubber stoppers and the demand for GLP-1 drugs [40]

华福证券 医药生物 2024 年 09 月 17 日 नी 研 医药生物 延迟退休将显著增厚医保收入，继续重视创新主线 投资要点： 行情回顾：本周（2024 年 9 月 9 日- 9 月 13 日）中信医药指数下跌 2.5%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.2pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 19 位；2024 年初 至今中信医药生物板块指数下跌 25.8%，跑输沪深 300 指数 17.8pct，在中 信行业分类中排名第 26 位。 延迟退休对医保收支的量化测算：23-50 年收入增速中枢预计提升 0.3pct，2050 年将医保收入规模增厚 5000 亿元：2024 年 9 月 13 日，全国 人大常务委员会公布启动渐进式延迟法定退休年龄，我们认为延迟退休将 对医保基金的收支产生较为正面的影响。从定性层面来看，延迟退休一方 面增加了在职职工的人数及缴纳年限，另一方面减少了退休职工的人数， 职工医保的在职退休比将得到优化。从定量层面来看，延迟退休预计将拉 动医保基金收入中长期增长中枢（23-50 年 CAGR）提升 0.3pct（从 2.5% 提升至 2.8%），在职职工参保人数曲线将发生明显上移，退休职工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 81.89 [5]. Core Insights - The company’s drug, Ivosidenib, has shown unprecedented results in the HARMONi-2 study, nearly doubling the median progression-free survival (mPFS) compared to Keytruda, achieving 11.14 months versus 5.82 months [1][9]. - Ivosidenib's single-agent "de-chemotherapy" regimen is expected to become the first-line treatment for lung cancer patients with positive PD-L1 expression, with a New Drug Application (NDA) accepted in August [2]. - The overseas value of Ivosidenib is anticipated to be re-evaluated, with peak sales in the U.S. projected to exceed USD 4.5 billion [3][26]. Summary by Sections HARMONi-2 Study Results - The HARMONi-2 study demonstrated that Ivosidenib significantly outperformed Keytruda in mPFS, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.51, indicating a 49% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death [1][11]. - The study included a diverse patient population, with 42.2% having high PD-L1 expression, and showed consistent results with previous studies, enhancing the credibility of the findings [10][11]. Single-Agent Efficacy - Ivosidenib achieved an mPFS of 11.1 months, outperforming Keytruda combined with chemotherapy in two Phase III studies, indicating its potential as a first-line treatment option [2][13]. - The safety profile of Ivosidenib is favorable, with a discontinuation rate of only 1.5% due to adverse events [16]. Clinical Development and Market Potential - The company is accelerating clinical development for Ivosidenib, with plans for further studies in various cancers, including colorectal and triple-negative breast cancer [3][26]. - Financial projections estimate revenues of CNY 26.5 billion, CNY 40.6 billion, and CNY 64.2 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a net profit forecasted to turn positive by 2025 [4][27].

华福证券 240913 日报：广东云浮试行"商转公" 投资要点： 板块表现： 9 月 13 日，沪深 300 指数收跌，房地产板块收涨。截至收盘，沪 深 300 指数下跌 0.4%，申万房地产指数上涨 0.8%。分板块来看，住宅 开发、商业地产、产业地产、物业管理分别上涨 0.7%、1.1%、0.4%、 0.2%。 个股表现： 截至收盘，房地产板块个股涨幅前五名为凤凰股份、电子城、空 港股份、中交地产、海泰发展，涨幅分别为 10.20%、10.03%、10.01%、 9.97%、9.90%；个股跌幅前五名为张江高科、新城控股、万业企业、 中洲控股、新大正，跌幅分别为-2.63%、-1.53%、-1.28%、-0.83%、-0.82%。 成交数据： 成交套数：本周累计成交 9538 套，环比上周同期-1.5%。其中一 线城市环比上周同期+26.9%；二线城市环比上周同期-18.8%；三线城 市环比上周同期-13.5%。成交面积：上周商品房累计成交 94.8 万方， 环比上周同期-8.4%。其中一线城市环比上周同期+17.8%；二线城市成 交环比上周同期-13.6%；三线城市成交环比上周同期-33.7%。 行业新 ...

华福证券 消费电子 2024 年 09 月 14 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 陈海进(S0210524060003) chj30590@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 陈妙杨(S0210524070002) cmy30509@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、苹果秋季发布会在即，消费电子新周期开启— —消费电子系列跟踪——2024.09.07 2、折叠屏和果链标的涨幅居前， 持续关注 9 月 消 费 电 子 新 品 — — 消 费 电 子 系 列 跟 踪 — — 2024.09.01 3、中报绩优标的涨幅居前，关注 9 月苹果、Meta、 华为新品发布会——消费电子系列跟踪—— 2024.08.24 消费电子 苹果、华为新机持续亮相，Meta9 月发布会在即 ——消费电子系列跟踪 投资要点： 消费电子指数-2.4%，折叠屏标的调整，PCB 板块回暖。本周（9 月 9 日-9 月 13 日）消费电子指数下跌 2.4%，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 2.23%，电子指 数下跌 2.35%。折叠屏供应链：本周，华为三折叠屏手机正式发布。本周， 精研科技、凯盛科技、科森科 ...

华福证券 房地产 开发投资、销售边际改善，单月国内贷款同比增长 投资要点： 事件：9 月 14 日，国家统计局公布 2024 年 1-8 月行业数据，前 8 个月 房地产开发投资同比下降 10.2%；商品房销售面积和销售额分别同比下降 18.0%和 23.6%，到位资金同比下降 20.2%。 开发投资累计降幅企稳，单月降幅环比缩窄 1-8 月全国房地产累计开发投资 6.9 万亿，同比下降 10.2%，降幅与 1-7 月 持平。8 月房地产开发投资 8407 亿，环比增长 0.7%，同比下降 10.2%， 降幅较前值缩窄 0.6pct。 8 月开发投资环比改善，1-8 月总体企稳，随着"三大工程"建设积极推 进以及项目"白名单"制度的持续健全，有望带动开发投资额持续修复。 团队成员 分析师： 陈立(S0210523080003) cl30270@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 于怡然(S0210124060064) yyr30611@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、华福地产日报：广东云浮试行"商转公"—— 2024.09.13 2、华福地产日报：武汉启动第三期"以房换房" ——2024.09.12 3、 ...

华福证券 行 业 定 期 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工制造 2024 年 09 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 轻工制造 8 月出口景气延续，内需关注估值修复 投资要点： 【周观点】细分出口景气延续，美国降息预期渐近，关注嘉益股份、哈尔 斯、匠心家居、永艺股份、共创草坪；包装龙头内需稳健&海外扩张、盈利 具备改善空间，金属包装关注昇兴股份、奥瑞金，纸包装关注裕同科技； 市场情绪底部，关注内需家居、文具龙头估值修复。 ➢ 1）出口链：8 月我国出口金额同比+8.7%，达 23 年 4 月以来最高， 前值+7.0%；其中家具及零件出口金额同比-4.5%，前值-5.5%，基数 提升行业表观增速下降。截止 9 月 13 日海运费 CCFI 综指环比-4.9%， SCFI 综指环比-7.9%，运价高位持续回落，建议关注 2H24 及 25 年中 大件跨境电商盈利修复。7 月美国家具零售店销售额季调同比-2.4%， 前值-4.8%，线下家具零售仍偏弱但环比有所改善，建议关注终端需求 仍有修复预期的美国地产链相关，以及业务动能充足&盈利内驱向上的 企业。7 月保温杯出口+18%维持景气，建议关注保温杯出口哈尔斯、 嘉 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a decline, with the overall A-share market down by 2.00%, while the ChiNext index showed resilience, reflecting a preference for previously oversold sectors like new energy [1][9] - In August, new social financing exceeded expectations, driven significantly by government bonds, with an increase of 30,298 billion yuan, which was notably higher than the consensus forecast of 27,044 billion yuan [1][14] - The M1 growth rate declined by 7.3% year-on-year, while M2 growth remained steady at 6.3%, indicating a widening gap between M1 and M2, which expanded from -12.9% in July to -13.6% in August [1][17] Group 2 - Market sentiment has converged, with the first batch of 10 CSI A500 ETFs officially issued, raising a total of 21 billion yuan, which is expected to channel funds into emerging sectors [2][29] - The stock-bond yield spread has risen to 2.2%, exceeding the +2 standard deviation level, indicating that A-share assets are relatively attractive compared to bonds [2][21] - The release of OpenAI's new model o1 represents a significant advancement in AI capabilities, which is expected to increase demand for computing power and related sectors such as optical modules and PCB [2][36] Group 3 - The communication sector performed well, driven by multiple industry catalysts, including the launch of OpenAI's new model and the promotion of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology [2][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a shift in market expectations regarding mortgage rates, which may catalyze the sector's performance [2][12] - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend following the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, with spot prices reaching historical highs [2][12] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with deterministic growth amidst weak domestic and external demand, suggesting a focus on internet, optical modules, and inverters benefiting from emerging market demand [2][42] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities within industries such as non-bank financials, computing, and electric equipment, where bullish stocks are prevalent [2][26]

华福证券 美路研究 适应人口发展新常态，推行渐进式延迟退休改革 ——产业经济周观点(2024.9.9-2024.9.13) 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业中，医疗服务录得正收益，其 余 5 个子行业均录得负收益。 2、9 月 13 日，十四届全国人大常委会第十一次会议通过《全国 人民代表大会常务委员会关于实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄的决定》。 自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起，按照文件要求，延迟退休将以小步调整、弹性 实施、分类推进、统筹兼顾的原则渐进式推进。 略定期招 风险提示 技术研发不及预期、宏观需求变化、地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 16 日 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 男职工延迟法定退休年龄对照表（部分） 策略定期报告 正文目录 | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 4.02%, marking the largest weekly gain since November last year[1] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year for August was reported at 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.6%, and the lowest level since February 2021[1] - Core inflation month-on-month exceeded expectations, driven by stronger housing inflation, which reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut next week are both at 50%[1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a dovish stance, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rising to 50%[1] - The overall resilience of the labor market suggests that significant rate cuts may not be urgently necessary[1] Asset Performance - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with NYMEX platinum (+8.13%) and COMEX silver (+7.55%) leading gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index (-2.23%) recorded the largest decline[1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 5.95%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.60%[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties[1]