华福证券 240904 日报：赣州允许房企回购人才房转商品房 投资要点： 板块表现： 9 月 4 日，沪深 300 指数收跌，房地产板块跌幅大于沪深 300。截 至收盘，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.6%，申万房地产指数下跌 1.2%。分板块 来看，各版块均下跌，住宅开发、商业地产、产业地产、物业管理分 别下跌 1.1%、1.8%、0.7%、1.0%。 个股表现： 截至收盘，房地产板块个股涨幅前五名为华丽家族、新湖中宝、 空港股份、金地集团、深物业 A，涨幅分别为 8.77%、4.47%、1.12%、 1.06%、0.79%；个股跌幅前五名分别为 ST 数源、*ST 中迪、大名城、 首开股份、招商蛇口，跌幅分别为-5.00%、-4.93%、-3.10%、-2.76%、 -2.76%。 成交数据： 成交套数：本周至今累计成交 4689 套，环比上周同期-10.3%。其 中一线城市环比上周同期-13.5%；二线城市环比上周同期-4.7%；三线 城市环比上周同期-12.8%。 成交面积：本周至今商品房累计成交 50.1 万方，环比上周同期 -1.4%。其中一线成交 18.8 万方，环比上周同期+5.9%；二线成交 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.277 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.34%, and a net profit of 228 million yuan, up 45.08% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end product offerings and increasing its special steel production capacity, particularly in high-temperature alloys [1]. - The report highlights a decrease in production volume due to maintenance activities, but an increase in product prices has supported revenue growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company produced 329,500 tons of steel, a decrease of 2.83% year-on-year, with steel sales of 238,100 tons, down 3.45% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling prices for key products such as alloy structural steel and stainless steel increased by 14.06% and 3.89% respectively compared to the previous year [1]. - The gross profit margins for alloy structural steel and high-temperature alloys improved, contributing positively to overall profitability [1]. Production and R&D Developments - The company is advancing its "special steel" strategy, with ongoing research and development efforts resulting in 49 projects and a total R&D expenditure of 186 million yuan [1]. - Planned production enhancements include new production lines for military products and high-alloy small bars, aimed at increasing capacity and optimizing product mix [1]. - The company is committed to high-end product development, focusing on high-temperature alloys, which are expected to see increased demand and higher selling prices [1]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 508 million, 644 million, and 825 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to lower-than-expected production volumes [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic special steel and high-temperature alloy market, with strong technical capabilities and ongoing production upgrades expected to capture growth opportunities [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company reported a steady increase in overall performance, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 36.04% for the first half of 2024, reaching 1.11 billion yuan [1]. - The group meal business continues to grow, while the revenue from direct sales stores is under pressure, indicating a mixed performance across different sales channels [1]. - The company is focusing on cost control and refined operations, leading to an increase in profit margins, with a gross margin of 26.17% for the first half of 2024, up 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 764 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion yuan, up 36.04% [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 410 million yuan, a decrease of 1.93% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 75.6% to 720 million yuan [1]. Business Segments - The revenue from franchise sales, direct store sales, and group meal sales for the first half of 2024 was 573 million yuan, 11 million yuan, and 167 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.78%, a decline of 19.74%, and an increase of 10.45% [1]. - The total number of franchise stores reached 5,284, with a net increase of 241 stores in the first half of 2024 [1]. Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 26.17%, with a net profit margin of 14.60%, reflecting improvements in cost management [1]. - The company has reduced its selling and administrative expense ratios compared to the previous year, indicating effective cost control measures [1]. Earnings Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.41 billion yuan, 2.85 billion yuan, and 3.24 billion yuan for the respective years, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times [1].

略京评报 华福证券 略研 投资要点： 事件：截至2024年8月31日，A股上市公司公布了2024年半年度报告。 从整体上看，A股上市公司盈利基本保持稳定。2024年半年度营收为 34.8万亿，同比增长-1.6%；净利润3.1万亿，同比增长-3%。其中，二季度 营收增速为-2%，净利润增速为-1.5%。二季度营收增速较一季度略有下滑， 净利润增速则有所改善。从半年度的情况来看，营收增速与净利润增速较 前两年的年度表现略有下滑，但差异不是特别大。 从板块上看，主板企业整体业绩最为稳定，而科创板与北交所企业财 务指标下滑较为明显。主板半年度营收为32.26万亿，同比增长-1.95%； 净利润2.94万亿，同比增长-2.59%。创业板半年度营收为1.85万亿，同比 增长2.92%；净利润0.13万亿，同比增长-3.23%。科创板半年度营收为0.65 万亿，同比增长2.71%；净利润304亿元，同比增长-27.42%。北交所半年度 营收为774.1亿元，同比增长-7.2%；净利润53.3亿元，同比增长-19.8%。 主板营收和净利润占到全部A股的九成以上，可以说是A股财务数据的中流 砥柱。主板的营收与净利润保持基本平稳 ...

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业投资策略报告 商贸零售及社会服务行业 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年9月4日 证券分析师： 2024年商社板块秋季策略： 拥抱消费赛道的小确幸 赵雅楠 执业证书编号：S0210524050007 高兴 执业证书编号：S0210522110002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资建议 Ø 截至24H1，消费整体呈现温和复苏趋势，从板块表现来看，受经济环境、谨慎消费及可选消费板块估值压制等因素影响，商 贸零售/社会服务板块年初至今涨跌幅分别为-23.8%/-24.7%，弱于大盘整体表现。我们认为细分板块仍具有一定的增长机会 ，各板块观点如下： Ø 美护板块：美护板块近两年经过板块调整，具有估值性价比；头部品牌国货替代和龙头份额提升逻辑逐步兑现，天猫/抖音增 势亮眼，且部分标的有医美大单品和新产品获批预期催化，建议关注：锦波生物、巨子生物、珀莱雅、上美股份、润本股份、 江苏吴中。 Ø 黄金珠宝：降息之前黄金将持续受益于降息预期交易，逐渐疲软的经济和就业数据将逐渐支撑贵金属价格上行，叠加中东/东 亚冲突和美国大选等不确定因素，黄金价格或有望维持强势。在此基础上，由于 ...

and Tam 华福证券 汇川技术（300124.SZ） 通用自动化结构性增长，新能源车业务超预期 投资要点： 事件：公司24H1实现营收161.83亿元（同比+29.98%），归母净利润21.18 亿元（同比+1.98%），扣非归母净利润20.68亿元（同比+10.77%）。单季 度来看，公司24Q2实现营收96.91亿元（同比+26.36%），归母净利润13.07 亿元（同比-1.72%），扣非归母净利润12.77亿元（同比+2.77%）。 毛利率结构性下滑，非经波动影响较大。2024上半年毛利率31.77%（同 比-4.5pct），主要受新能源车收入占比提升影响，通用自动化业务毛利率 同比下滑2.14pct至44.31%。2024上半年净利率13.27%，其中Q2净利率 13.67%，归母净利润主要受到非经常性损益波动影响，股权投资等公允价 值变动损失0.42亿元，去年同期收益1.43亿元。 新能源车支撑穿越周期。①通用自动化：下游需求分化明显，公司抓 住传统行业需求复苏的结构性机会，收入实现同比10%的稳健增长。光伏锂 电行业需求持续下滑，预计下半年随基数下降而跌幅收窄。其中，Q2通用 变频器/通用伺 ...

华福证券 包 研 三生国健（688336.SH） 增长稳健符合预期，自免管线稳步推进 投资要点： 事件：公司发布 2024 半年报，业绩符合预期。 24H1 公司营收 6.0 亿元（+24.9%）,归母净利润 1.3 亿元（+36.7%）， 扣非归母净利润 1.26 亿元（+50.8%）。 单 Q2 营收 3.3 亿元（+21.9%），归母净利润 0.38 亿元（-37.3%）， 扣非归母净利润 0.4 亿元（-27.1%） 上市产品增长稳健，利润端整体符合预期。 分产品来看：1）益赛普收入同比增长 9.4%，集采扩围存在降价 压力，预充针提升患者依从性带动稳定增长；2）赛普汀收入同比增长 48.9%：准入持续推进；3）健尼哌销售收入同比增长 47.8%，加强二 线治疗地位。 利润端来看，H1 毛利率 73.3%，同比-1.73pct，费用率方面：H1 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 费 用 率 为 22.1%/5.8%/24.8% ， 同 比 分 别 -4.3pct/-1.4pct/-2.4pct。 自免研发管线推进顺利收获在即，早研项目 626 中美双报潜力十足 截至 24H1，公司研发管线中共开展 14 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate sector has shown a stronger performance compared to the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 0.3% and the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 1.1% [8] - The report suggests that the expectation of interest rate cuts overseas may open up space for domestic interest rates to decline, potentially leading to a release in housing demand [6] - The adjustment of housing provident fund loan and withdrawal policies in Shaoyang is expected to positively impact the market, allowing for a lower down payment of 15% for first-time homebuyers and enabling parents to withdraw funds for their children's home purchases [4] Market Performance - As of September 2, 2024, the total number of residential transactions in 30 major cities was 1,970 units, representing a week-on-week decrease of 18.6%. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a decline of 26.6% [3][12] - The report notes that the top five gainers in the real estate sector included Shen Zhen Ye A, Jin Di Group, *ST Zhong Di, Chun Lan Co., and Shou Kai Co., with respective increases of 10.03%, 8.33%, 5.18%, 3.37%, and 3.33% [2][10] Individual Stock Valuation - The report lists the price-to-book (PB) ratios of key real estate companies, with China Communications Construction at 3.61, followed by Beijing Investment Development at 1.71, and Lujiazui at 1.48 [5][13] - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate developers such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and regional state-owned enterprises like Waigaoqiao and Pudong Jinqiao [6]

司 研 华福证券 乖宝宠物（301498.SZ） 24H1 业绩点评：自主品牌表现靓丽，盈利能力 持续提振 公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。2024H1 公司实现营业总收入 24.27 亿 元，同比+17.48%，归母净利润 3.08 亿元，同比+49.92%，扣非归母净利润 2.91 亿元，同比+42.28%。单季度来看，24Q2 现营业总收入 13.29 亿元， 同比+14.48%，归母净利润 1.60 亿元，同比+32.64%，扣非归母净利润 1.53 亿元，同比+26.83%。 618 品牌表现靓丽，直销占比明显提升。24H1 公司营收+17%，其中主 粮/零食营收分别同比+18%/+17%；分渠道来看，直销占比提升明显，H1 公司直销营收 8.7 亿元，同比+61%，占主营业务占比约 36%。国内市场： 公司把握国内宠物食品需求快速扩张的行业机遇，已构建以"麦富迪"、 "弗列加特"为核心的自有品牌梯队，618 期间公司自主品牌实现靓丽增 长，根据乖宝宠物食品集团数据显示 24 年 618 期间公司麦富迪+弗列加特 全网销售额突破 4.7 亿元，同比+40%，其中弗列加特同比增长 230%+，麦 富 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.013 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 171 million yuan, down 37.5% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to reduced bidding volumes for ultrasound and endoscopy products due to industry procurement disruptions, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2024 as delayed bidding demands are expected to be released [2][3]. - The company has a strong R&D focus, with an investment of 212 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a 25% increase year-on-year, and a rising market recognition for its products [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 2.546 billion yuan, 3.193 billion yuan, and 4.006 billion yuan respectively, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 26.6% [3]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 561 million yuan, 724 million yuan, and 922 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.30 yuan, 1.67 yuan, and 2.13 yuan [3][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 23, 18, and 14 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][6].