Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.271 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.40% to 81 million yuan [1][4]. - The decline in profit is attributed to the high base from the previous year due to compensation from store relocation and the significant costs associated with opening new stores during their ramp-up phase [4]. - The company is in a phase of expansion, having opened five new stores in the first half of 2024, with plans for an additional 4-6 stores in the second half of the year [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company's restaurant and accommodation services generated revenue of 1.129 billion yuan with a gross margin of 23.77%, while food sales contributed 142 million yuan with a gross margin of 34.19% [2]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 21.56%, a decrease of 3.17 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]. - The company’s operating expenses increased due to the expansion, with sales expense ratio rising to 5.96% and management expense ratio at 5.13% [3]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the second quarter performance, the profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 282 million yuan, 362 million yuan, and 452 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [4].

华福证券 广州酒家（603043.SH） 省外扩张初见成效，加大投入利润端短期承压 事件：公司发布 2024 年中报，上半年实现营业收入 19.12 亿元，同比+10.29%； 实现归母净利润为 0.58 亿元，同比-26.98%；实现扣非归母净利润为 0.50 亿元， 同比-30.99%。其中公司 2024 单二季度营收为 9.00 亿元，同比+10.57%；单季 度归母净亏损为 0.12 亿元，同比盈转亏；单季度扣非归母净亏损 0.16 亿元， 同比盈转亏。公司收入端稳步增长，各项业务投入加大致使利润端短期承压。 餐饮业务成长显著，淡季月饼业务发展稳健，备战三季度月饼旺季。 公司 2024H1 食品制造业务/餐饮服务业务/其他商品销售业务收入分别为 11.42/7.22/0.28 亿元，同比分别为+8.23%/+14.62%/-9.13%，毛利率分别为 29.17%/18.74%/29.28%；食品制造业务中月饼系列产品/速冻食品/其他产品收 入分别为 0.32/5.40/5.70 亿元，同比分别为+7.14%/-0.51%/+18.12%。上半年公 司持续餐饮拓店，截止 2024H1，公司拥有直营门店 ...

华福证券 힘 मे 成都银行（601838.SH） 中收表现亮眼——2024 半年度业绩点评 投资要点： 业绩承压，净利息收入为主要拖累因素 2024Q2，单季营收增速为 2.45%，较一季度增速下滑 3.8pct。单季 归母净利润增速为 8.75%，较一季度增速下滑 4.1%。 归因来看，主要是净利息收入下滑拖累业绩表现，且量、价都形 成拖累，价格的拖累更为明显。（1）量方面，截至 2024 年上半年， 生息资产增速为 17.6%，较一季度末下滑 2.27pct。（2）价格方面，二 季度测算净息差为 1.52%，同比降幅进一步扩大至 37bp。 非息净收入的贡献有所增加 2024Q2，公司紧跟市场变化，加大对优质债券配比，主动开展波 段操作，单季度其他非息的增速为 23.5%，较一季度明显提升 27pct， 主要是债券转让收入增加。 中收表现亮眼。公司持续巩固"稳健低波"的产品优势，全面强 化投研能力、持续丰富理财产品种类，强化以"芙蓉锦程"为品牌的 区域品牌形象。2024Q2，单季手续费及佣金净收入增速为 43.1%，较 一季度明显提升 27.3pct。拆分结构来看，理财及资产管理业务、担保 及承诺业务、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 899 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35% to 88 million yuan [1]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%, with a net profit of 48 million yuan, up 189% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s micro-inverter and energy communication device sales showed a quarter-on-quarter growth, with Q2 2024 revenue reaching 319 million yuan, a 6.82% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - The company’s inventory management has improved, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, and it is expected that shipments will grow by approximately 20% for the full year 2024 due to increased demand in the European DIY market [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company’s micro-inverter and energy communication device revenue was 620 million yuan, with a gross margin of 41.73% [1]. - The company’s smart control circuit breaker business showed strong performance, with Q2 2024 revenue of 46 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52.1% [1]. - The energy storage business also contributed positively, with total revenue of 178 million yuan for the first half of 2024, including 92 million yuan from industrial and commercial storage systems in Q2 [1]. - The company’s financial projections for 2024-2026 indicate a decrease in net profit estimates due to competitive pressures, with expected net profits of 260 million yuan in 2024, 360 million yuan in 2025, and 450 million yuan in 2026 [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 27.2 for 2024, 19.9 for 2025, and 15.7 for 2026 [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.67 yuan in 2024, 2.29 yuan in 2025, and 2.90 yuan in 2026 [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 40.32 CNY based on a projected PB of 1x for 2024 [1][20]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected to be -0.14%, 5.37%, and 5.51%, respectively, which are lower than previous estimates [1]. - The net profit growth rates for the same period are forecasted at -0.4%, 5.5%, and 5.9%, also reflecting a downward revision from earlier projections [1]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in performance, with Q2 2024 showing a revenue decline of only -1.5%, an improvement of 3.2 percentage points from Q1 [10]. - The main driver for the marginal improvement in performance is the reduction in the drag from net interest income, which saw a decline of -2.1% in Q2 2024, narrowing the drop by 4 percentage points from Q1 [10][40]. Financial Projections - The company's operating revenue for 2024 is expected to be 338.7 billion CNY, with a slight decrease from 339.1 billion CNY in 2023 [21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 146 billion CNY for 2024, down from 146.6 billion CNY in 2023 [21]. - The report indicates that the net interest income is expected to stabilize, with a forecast of 2,146 billion CNY for 2024, consistent with the previous year [31]. Asset Quality and Growth - The report notes a slight increase in non-performing loan ratios, with retail loans showing particular pressure, as the overdue rate for consumer credit rose to 3.00% [19][33]. - The growth rate of interest-earning assets is projected at 7.6% as of Q2 2024, indicating a positive trend in asset expansion [10]. - The capital adequacy ratio is expected to remain strong at 18.2% for 2024, reflecting a solid capital position [33].

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 宏观定期研究 2024 年 9 月 5 日 宏 观 研 究 行业比较专刊 中游景气有所恢复，上游景气出现分化 ➢ 核心观点 整体来看，上中下游景气均出现了不同程度的修复，其中上游景气走势分 化，中游景气多数上行，下游消费景气出现修复。（1）上游景气走势分 化。8月份，受部分行业生产淡季和极端降雨天气影响，钢铁、煤炭价格 出现了不同程度的下行。原油均价基本保持平稳，库存量有所下降。有色 金属价格方面，铜、铝期货价格小幅回升，稀土价格也出现修复，但是碳 酸锂价格仍在低位运行。建材方面，玻璃和水泥的价格仍在向下。化工方 面，我们跟踪的指标总体走势分化，但是部分产品景气度出现修复。 （2）中游行业景气大多上行。7月份，交通运输方面，快递收入和业务量 同比出现明显增长。机械重卡方面，挖掘机和重卡同比销量出现修复。动 力电池产量和装车量均出现明显增长。电子行业在5月份景气冲高后出现 小幅回调。8月份，光伏行业全产业链产品价格仍保持低位 ...

华福证券 投资要点： 总体来看，8 月份全市场新发基金规模小幅下降，且环比、同比均 有所减少。不过值得注意的是，市场关注度比较高的主动权益以及被 动权益基金发行出现止跌迹象，8 月份发行规模整体有所回暖。而 QDII 型基金和 FOF 基金 8 月份发行数据降温幅度较为显著。具体来看： 8 月份国内新发行开放式基金 526 亿份，较上月减少了 14 亿份， 发行规模持续位于年内较低位。与去年同期 8 月份数据相比，发行规 模同样小幅减少了 259 亿份。从产品数量来看，8 月份总共有 78 只产 品新发行，环比减少 5 只；同比减少 18 只。 从结构上看，8 月新发基金依然以债券型基金为主，其发行规模为 395 亿份，占比 75.1%，环比上升 3.0pct。权益型产品占比 19.5%，环 比提高了 3.3pct，具体看，主动权益型基金共新发行 50 亿份，占比 9.5%，环比提升 0.2pct；被动权益型基金共新发行 53 亿份，占比 10.1%， 环比提升了 3.0pct。 分类型具体来看： （1）主动权益型：8 月份主动权益型基金发行规模为 50 亿份，环 比基本持平，不过目前仍处于底部区间。发行产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company, indicating a cautious approach due to expected performance adjustments in the near term [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recovery in liquor consumption has not met expectations, leading to slower payment collection from distributors [1]. - The company is focusing on strategic improvements and has initiated sample markets to enhance sales performance [4]. - Financial forecasts indicate a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with expectations of gradual recovery in subsequent years [5][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - For 2022A, the company reported revenue of 4,050 million yuan, which is expected to decline to 2,830 million yuan in 2023A, and further to 2,341 million yuan in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of -30% and -17% respectively [1]. - Net profit is projected to decrease from 1,049 million yuan in 2022A to 548 million yuan in 2023A, and further to 339 million yuan in 2024E, with a growth rate of -48% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 3.23 yuan in 2022A to 1.69 yuan in 2023A, and further to 1.04 yuan in 2024E [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to rise significantly from 11.0 in 2022A to 34.1 in 2024E, indicating a potential overvaluation in the near term [1]. Product Performance - The report notes that the company's flagship product series, "Jiugui," experienced a revenue decline of 30.11% in the first half of 2024, with both sales volume and price per ton decreasing [3]. - The "Neican" series saw a more substantial decline of 60.85% in revenue, with significant drops in both sales volume and price [3]. - Conversely, the "Xiangquan" series achieved a revenue increase of 36.33% in the same period, driven by improved sales volume [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a focused strategy to enhance consumer engagement and has launched 11 sample markets to strengthen its market presence [4]. - Ongoing reforms in cost management are aimed at alleviating short-term profit pressures while maintaining flexibility in sales expenses [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Waigaoqiao (600648 SH) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 11 69, based on a 13x PE multiple for 2024 [6][7] Core Views - Waigaoqiao is a comprehensive operator in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone with a 30-year history of bonded zone operations The company has raised its dividend payout ratio to 50%, reflecting its high-dividend characteristics [1] - The company's three main businesses are property leasing, trade and services, and real estate development and sales Property leasing serves as the cornerstone of its revenue, while real estate sales are subject to fluctuations due to project delivery schedules [1][2] - The company's trade and logistics business has seen improved gross margins, supported by the "Global Hub" platform, which facilitates cross-border e-commerce under the "Silk Road E-commerce" initiative [3] - The real estate development business focuses on the Senlan brand, with high-end residential projects contributing to future revenue growth [4] Property Leasing Business - Waigaoqiao holds 4 71 million square meters of leasing assets, with a vacancy rate that has been declining The company plans to deliver 400,000 square meters of industrial properties over the next two years [2] - Industrial leasing accounts for over 80% of the leasing revenue, with gross margins steadily increasing The company's leasing business is supported by the "Three Foundations and Four Key Industries" strategy, ensuring stable future income [2] - The company's leasing revenue in 2023 reached RMB 1 78 billion, a 24 5% YoY increase, with industrial leasing contributing RMB 1 44 billion and commercial leasing contributing RMB 340 million [48] Trade and Services Business - Waigaoqiao's bonded zone ranks among the top in China for import and export volume, accounting for 40% of Pudong New Area's and 25% of Shanghai's total import and export volume [3] - The trade and services segment saw a 10 6 percentage point increase in gross margin from 2019 to 2023, reaching 22 1% The "Global Hub" platform, launched in 2022, has become a core carrier for "Silk Road E-commerce" [3] - The company's trade and services revenue in 2023 was RMB 3 42 billion, with a gross margin of 22 1%, driven by higher-margin import and export agency and logistics businesses [3] Real Estate Development Business - The real estate development business focuses on the Senlan area, with revenue fluctuations due to project delivery cycles In 2023, the segment generated RMB 1 69 billion in revenue, a 42 2% YoY decline [4] - The company has 600,000 square meters of residential project reserves, including high-end low-density residential projects in the Senlan area, which are expected to contribute significant future revenue [4] - The Senlan Island project, with a planned first-phase sale of 30,000 square meters, is expected to generate RMB 3-3 6 billion in revenue based on surrounding property prices of RMB 100,000-120,000 per square meter [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth of 6%, 0%, and 19% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of 10%, -9%, and 54%, respectively EPS is projected to be RMB 0 90, RMB 0 82, and RMB 1 26 for the same period [6] - The property leasing business is expected to grow at 11 8%, 8 0%, and 8 0% from 2024-2026, with gross margins of 38 8%, 38 6%, and 39 5% [67] - The real estate sales business is projected to grow at 5 4%, -16 8%, and 83 7% from 2024-2026, with gross margins of 58 0%, 57 0%, and 60 0% [67] - The trade and services business is expected to grow at 3 0% annually from 2024-2026, with gross margins of 22 1%, 22 5%, and 22 5% [67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant reduction in the revenue decline in Q2, with a revenue of 1.67 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of -100 million yuan, which is an improvement of 39 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The company is experiencing resilience in enterprise customer revenue, which grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while government and financial sector revenues declined by 15.9% and 18.2%, respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with overall expenses down by 7.36% year-on-year, and has invested in AI technology, launching the upgraded version of its security product [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit of -590 million yuan, a decrease of 38 million yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected at 7.78 billion yuan, 8.18 billion yuan, and 9.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 5%, and 10%, respectively [2][3]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is expected to be 240 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 510 million yuan, with growth rates of 22%, 55%, and 38% [2][3]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected EPS of 0.57 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.22 yuan by 2026, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [3][10]. - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 95.6 in 2023 to 36.8 in 2026, indicating an improvement in valuation over time [3][10]. - The asset-liability ratio is reported at 44.24%, suggesting a moderate level of financial leverage [4].