Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual reduction in production capacity in the pig farming sector, with the number of breeding sows in China dropping below 40 million as of October, reflecting a decrease of over 350,000 from September [2][35]. - The report suggests that the recent losses in pig farming, combined with capacity control policies, are likely to enhance expectations for production capacity reduction, which may lead to a long-term increase in pig prices [2][35]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as TianKang Biological, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture [2][35]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices initially declined but showed slight recovery later in the week, with an average price of 11.62 CNY/kg as of November 21, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 CNY/kg [11]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 128.81 kg, up by 0.33 kg week-on-week, driven by improved weight gain due to lower temperatures [24][35]. - The report indicates that the industry is currently facing losses, but the expected reduction in production capacity may lead to higher long-term price stability for quality pig farming companies [35]. Cattle Farming - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly decreased, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.58 CNY/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week, while calf prices increased to 32 CNY/kg, up 0.63% week-on-week [38]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with prices anticipated to enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [38]. Dairy Farming - The price of raw milk is currently at a low point, recorded at 3.03 CNY/kg, which is a 31% decrease from the peak [39]. - The ongoing losses in the dairy sector are expected to continue driving production capacity reduction, with a potential stabilization and recovery in raw milk prices anticipated as supply contracts [39]. Poultry Farming - The report indicates a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chickens, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.15 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.03 CNY/kg week-on-week [46]. - The price of chicken eggs averaged 6.25 CNY/kg, down 0.24 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery due to supply constraints from ongoing avian influenza outbreaks [46][49]. Agricultural Products - The report notes a correction in soybean meal prices following the USDA report, with spot prices at 3070 CNY/ton, down 28 CNY/ton week-on-week [62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring actual soybean purchases and planting weather in South America for future price movements [62].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of enhanced policy support for the construction materials sector, particularly in Q4, highlighting potential investment opportunities [2][3] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from supply-side reforms and a recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and supportive government policies [4][6] - The report notes that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with a higher sensitivity to policy easing, which may lead to a recovery in the demand for construction materials [4][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has initiated a national urban renewal meeting, focusing on improving housing and community quality [4] - In Beijing, from January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing was 8.159 million square meters, down 3.7% year-on-year, with residential sales down 7.3% [4] - National cement production from January to November reached 1.54 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [4] Market Data - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement was 341.6 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous week and down 18.6% year-on-year [5][13] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1102.9 yuan/ton, down 3.4% from the previous week and down 20.7% year-on-year [5][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [6] 2. Undervalued companies with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [6] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming out, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [6]

基础化工 2025 年 11 月 23 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：光刻材料龙头上市，阿克苏诺贝尔 和艾仕得合并剑指全球第二 团队成员 分析师： 孙范彦卿 (S0210524050021) sfyq30569@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 相关报告 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 4834.46 点，环比下跌 7.34%。 其中，涨幅前五的有晨光新材(16.37%)、彤程新材(14.75%)、上海新阳(9.42%)、 南大光电(8.47%)、八亿时空(2.96%)；跌幅前五的有奥克股份(-19.58%)、三祥 新材(-15.92%)、皖维高新(-15.33%)、中环股份(-14.85%)、斯迪克(-14.74%)。 六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报7153.92点，环比下跌7.08%； 申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1053.67 点，环比下跌 5.9%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 7320.73 点，环比下跌 5.41%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1417.19 点，环比下跌 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug industry is entering a significant commercialization phase in 2025, with major advancements in product launches and new platform validations expected [16]. - Alnylam's AMVUTTRA is projected to exceed $2 billion in sales, marking a significant milestone for small nucleic acid drugs [3][17]. - Ionis is anticipated to have multiple catalysts in 2026, with key products like Olezarsen showing promising results [25]. - Arrowhead has launched its first commercial product, Plozasiran, and is focusing on its innovative Trim platform for weight loss and CNS projects [35]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance of Recommended Pharmaceutical Combinations - The recommended combinations outperformed the pharmaceutical index by 2.4 percentage points but underperformed the broader market by 0.6 percentage points [12]. 2. Small Nucleic Acid Industry Update - The small nucleic acid sector is witnessing rapid commercialization and platform breakthroughs, with significant investment opportunities emerging [16]. - Alnylam's AMVUTTRA sales are expected to reach $2.475 to $2.525 billion for the year, reflecting strong market demand [23]. - Ionis's Olezarsen has shown a 72% reduction in triglycerides in patients, indicating a strong commercial outlook [17][25]. - Arrowhead's Plozasiran is now approved for treating familial chylomicronemia syndrome, marking a significant achievement for the company [17]. 3. Weekly Market Review of the Pharmaceutical Sector - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 6.8% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3 percentage points [47]. - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 14.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points [47]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Hainan Haiyao (+23.8%) and Changyao Holdings (+19.7%) [59]. 4. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report suggests a continued focus on innovative drugs, CXO, and the pharmaceutical supply chain, especially with upcoming ASH conference data releases [4]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 28.5, indicating a relative premium over the broader market [54].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential of second-generation 4-1BB agonists, particularly dual-target antibodies, which have shown promising efficacy while addressing safety concerns associated with liver toxicity [4][24] - The report highlights significant recent industry events, including Merck's acquisition of Cidara for approximately $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera, indicating a trend of consolidation in the biopharmaceutical sector [6] - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for China's innovative drug sector, driven by increasing data catalysts and new product sales, recommending specific companies for investment [6] Summary by Sections 4-1BB Overview - 4-1BB (CD137) is a key member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, crucial for T cell activation and immune response enhancement [4][10] - The second-generation CAR-T cell technology utilizing 4-1BB has been validated for inducing prolonged activation and survival of CAR-T cells in vivo [4][12] First-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - First-generation 4-1BB agonists like urelumab and utomilumab faced limitations due to liver toxicity and insufficient efficacy [16][22] - Urelumab demonstrated significant hepatotoxicity at doses ≥1.0 mg/kg, leading to its discontinuation [21][22] Second-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - Second-generation 4-1BB agonists are primarily dual-specific antibodies targeting various pathways, with a focus on balancing efficacy and safety [24][26] - LBL-024, a promising candidate, has shown unprecedented efficacy and is expected to submit a BLA by Q3 2026 [4][6] Recent Industry Events - Merck's acquisition of Cidara for $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera highlight ongoing consolidation in the biopharmaceutical industry [6] - The report notes that the innovative drug sector is under pressure but is expected to rebound with a focus on companies with strong revenue capabilities [6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with differentiated innovation pipelines and strong revenue capabilities, including specific biopharma and pharma leaders [6] - Suggested companies for investment include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and I-MAB, among others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, with lithium salt plants actively mining [2] - The short-term outlook for lithium shows a continued increase in both supply and demand, while long-term projections indicate that energy storage will become a major growth driver for lithium [2] - In the precious metals sector, the report notes a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, while global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold [11] - For industrial metals, the report indicates that copper prices have a solid support at the bottom, with expectations of price increases driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong demand from the new energy sector [12][13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report discusses the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, which limits the price increase of gold. However, long-term value remains intact due to geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [11] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to a tightening supply and strong demand from the new energy sector. The report notes a recent accident in a Congolese copper mine that has raised supply concerns [12][13] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a potential for increases in the long term due to supply constraints and strong demand [16] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with strong production from lithium salt plants. The report anticipates a continued high demand for lithium, particularly in energy storage applications [2][17] - Key companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [18] Other Minor Metals - The report notes a stable market for antimony, with a significant increase in exports in October. The outlook for antimony prices remains stable [19][21] - Other minor metals such as tungsten and molybdenum are also highlighted, with specific companies recommended for investment [21]

- **Pring Cycle and its construction** - **Model Name**: Pring Cycle - **Construction Idea**: The Pring Cycle divides the economy and market into six stages based on the rotation performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities, helping investors adapt to different economic environments [13][16][17] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Stage Division**: - Stage 1: Recovery Early Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks slightly rise, commodities remain flat - Stage 2: Recovery Acceleration - Stocks lead, bonds weaken - Stage 3: Expansion Peak - Commodities start rising, stock growth slows, bonds decline - Stage 4: Overheat Phase - Commodities perform best, stocks decline, bonds remain flat or slightly drop - Stage 5: Growth Slowdown - Bonds improve, stocks and commodities weaken - Stage 6: Recession Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks rebound slightly, commodities perform worst [16][17][18] 2. Historical validation of Pring Cycle stages and their corresponding market performances [18] - **Evaluation**: Pring Cycle provides forward-looking insights by extracting "implied economic expectations" from market variables like prices, interest rates, and commodities, reflecting the broad economic direction [47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS) and its construction** - **Factor Name**: Trend Score (TS) - **Construction Idea**: TS is built using monthly macroeconomic data to reflect real economic activities, corporate profits, and liquidity trends, offering a stable and cross-industry consistent confirmation signal [47] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Factor Selection**: Core macro factors include PMI New Orders, PPI YoY/MoM, M1 YoY, and M2 YoY, representing demand, profitability, and liquidity [26][29][30] 2. **Standardization**: Apply 12-month rolling Z-score to each factor for comparability [33] 3. **Weighted Aggregation**: Combine Z-scores using normalized weights to derive monthly raw TS [33] 4. **EWMA Smoothing**: Apply EWMA (α=0.5) to stabilize TS and clarify trend segments [33] 5. **Anti-Jump Rule**: Use 60-period rolling distribution with dual thresholds (35/65 outer, 45/55 inner) to classify TS into "Cautious/Neutral/Positive" states, ensuring stable macro state transitions [34] 6. **Practical Application**: Extend monthly TS to daily frequency with a 15-day lag for real-time use [33] - **Evaluation**: TS complements Pring Cycle by providing confirmation signals from the fundamental side, enhancing reliability and cross-industry consistency [47] - **Backtesting Results for Models and Factors** - **Pring Cycle**: Historical validation shows that recovery and positive macro signals yield the strongest positive returns across industries, with recovery > overheat > recession in certainty [45][47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS)**: Positive TS signals outperform cautious and neutral states, with clear positive effects on market returns [45][47] - **Combined Strategy**: The Pring Cycle and TS framework consistently outperform benchmarks like CSI 300 in most years, with stable long-term excess returns and controlled drawdowns [56][59] - **Performance Metrics for Macro States** - **CSI 300**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.24%, Recession -0.08%, Overheat 0.50% - Neutral: Recovery 0.23%, Recession -2.50%, Overheat 6.21% - Positive: Recovery 2.74%, Recession 0.34%, Overheat 1.29% [41] - **CSI 2000**: - Cautious: Recovery 4.42%, Recession -1.06%, Overheat -0.16% - Neutral: Recovery 2.85%, Recession -0.54%, Overheat -3.76% - Positive: Recovery 3.14%, Recession 0.37%, Overheat 1.77% [42] - **Growth Enterprise Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 3.69%, Recession -0.67%, Overheat -2.90% - Neutral: Recovery -0.97%, Recession -1.64%, Overheat 1.62% - Positive: Recovery 4.31%, Recession 2.95%, Overheat 0.51% [43] - **Low Volatility Dividend Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.13%, Recession 0.76%, Overheat 0.60% - Neutral: Recovery -0.69%, Recession -3.12%, Overheat 8.05% - Positive: Recovery 1.51%, Recession 1.42%, Overheat 1.86% [44] - **Sector Performance under Macro States** - **Positive-Recovery**: Sectors like New Energy, Basic Chemicals, Consumer Services, and Growth Enterprise Index show strong returns [60][62] - **Positive-Overheat**: Sectors like Electronics, Basic Chemicals, Electric Equipment, and Nonferrous Metals exhibit sustained performance, shifting towards cyclical sectors [63][64] - **Risk-Adjusted Returns**: Manufacturing chains (e.g., Chemicals, Nonferrous Metals) maintain mid-to-high rankings across all macro states, while defensive sectors (e.g., Food & Beverage, Banks) dominate during downturns [64][66] - **Strategy Effectiveness** - The combined Pring Cycle and TS framework systematically captures trends and filters noise, demonstrating long-term executability and adaptability to macroeconomic changes [56][59]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [15] Core Insights - The domestic humanoid robot industry is entering a phase of large-scale development, with eight companies, including UBTECH and ZhiYuan Robotics, securing orders exceeding 100 million yuan or over 1,000 units, totaling 2.4 billion yuan in orders [3] - The price threshold for humanoid robots is continuously decreasing, driven by domestic manufacturers' self-research on core components and increased localization rates, leading to significant cost reductions [4] - The humanoid robot market in China is expected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, as sales are projected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5] Summary by Sections Orders and Market Demand - Major companies are experiencing an explosion in orders, with applications across various scenarios such as industrial, cultural tourism, and logistics, and some firms have already set delivery timelines for 2026 [3] Cost Reduction and Supply Chain Maturity - The price of humanoid robots has significantly decreased, with models like Yushu Technology's R1 priced at 39,900 yuan and others dropping to as low as 9,998 yuan, indicating a maturing supply chain in China [4] Future Market Potential - The demand for humanoid robots in industrial and commercial settings is projected to exceed 3.8 million units by 2030, with the market size potentially reaching over 100 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with October's PPI year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, and the lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom. The report anticipates further supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is viewed as being in a golden era due to energy transformation, with limited supply elasticity and increasing extraction difficulties. The report suggests that coal's status as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and coal prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Market Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal closing price is 834 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in prices from Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi [3][29] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.508 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 13,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [3][37] - The inventory index for thermal coal is 188.8, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.6 [3][37] 2. Coking Coal - As of November 21, 2025, the price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1780 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 CNY/ton [4][66] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 758,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [4][66] - The coking coal inventory has increased by 20.9 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 43.2% [4][66] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly increased to 805,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1% [37][39] - The operating rates for methanol and urea are at 88.8% and 83.9%, respectively, indicating a high level of activity compared to historical levels [3][39] - The report highlights that coal supply is expected to remain tight due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also recommended, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal-electricity integration models to mitigate cyclical fluctuations, recommending companies like Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Insights - The company, Yuanbao, is a leading technology-driven online insurance distribution and service platform in China, focusing on personal life and health insurance products. It leverages big data and AI technology to provide a comprehensive insurance service cycle, including personalized recommendations, convenient underwriting, policy management, intelligent claims, and after-sales support [3][14]. - Yuanbao has achieved rapid growth and profitability within three years of establishment, establishing a strong foundation for continued leadership in the online insurance market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yuanbao is recognized as a pioneer in internet insurance technology in China, holding national insurance brokerage and agency licenses. The company aims to make insurance more accessible through its technology-driven platform [14]. - The actual controller of the company is Rui Fang, who has extensive experience in financial technology and e-commerce [16]. - The main business model involves online distribution and full-cycle service of personal life and health insurance products, with a focus on short-term insurance [22]. Company Highlights - The company has built a robust competitive moat through its proprietary "Full Consumer Service Cycle Engine," which integrates media, users, and products to optimize the insurance service process [23][33]. - Yuanbao is the largest independent online insurance distributor in China, with significant market share and a strong growth trajectory [39]. - The online insurance distribution market in China has substantial growth potential, with online insurance sales penetration expected to rise significantly by 2028 [40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 47.23 billion, 65.64 billion, and 87.96 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 13.42 billion, 20.94 billion, and 31.30 billion RMB [4][55]. - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue growth rates of 42%, 37%, and 32% for 2025-2027 [49]. - The report uses a relative valuation method, indicating that the company's PE ratio for 2025 is significantly lower than the average of comparable companies, suggesting a potential undervaluation [4][55].