行 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 31 日 业 研 究 机械设备 超声脑机接口启新篇，中国方案破解脑病治疗困局 投资要点： 技术突破创新，超声精准打开血脑屏障 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日，复旦大学联合华山医院在国家重点研发计划项目启动会上， 发布国内首例采用自主研制超声诊疗一体化装置"UltraBrainPad"的临 床试验成果。该半侵入式技术为全球第三种方案，通过手持式探头结 合 AI 图像识别，3 分钟即可打开胶质母细胞瘤患者血脑屏障，药物浓 度平均提升 8 倍，6 小时后屏障自动关闭，操作便捷、成本可控且安全 性优于国际水平，成功破解传统技术感染风险高、精度不足等难题。 赛道拓展赋能，惠及多种脑病治疗场景 作为国家重点研发计划项目，该技术已启动复发胶质母细胞瘤临 床研究，未来将打造超声脑机接口新赛道。除脑肿瘤药物治疗外，其 科研成果还将向神经调控、脑机融合方向转化，有望为阿尔兹海默病、 头痛、失眠等多种脑病提供全新治疗路径，凭借基层可及的优势，让 更多患者受益于这一"中国方案"。 岩山科技、汉威科技、三博脑科、创新医疗、东方中科、翔宇医 疗、熵基科技、诚益通、伟思医疗、麦澜德、爱朋医疗、倍益康等。 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, the general public budget revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of -1.7%, falling short of the target growth of 0.1%[4] - The general fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates for 2025 were -2.9% and 3.7%, respectively[3] - In December 2025, general fiscal revenue dropped by 13.3 percentage points to -18.5% compared to the previous month[3] Tax Revenue Performance - Tax revenue growth turned negative in December 2025, with a decline of 11.5%[4] - Central government revenue saw a significant drop of 50.3% year-on-year, while local revenue remained stable at 4.1%[4] - In December 2025, the growth rate of corporate income tax fell sharply by 13.1 percentage points, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year[4] Fiscal Expenditure Insights - Total fiscal expenditure in 2025 was CNY 28.7 trillion, with a growth rate of 1%, below the target of 4.4%[5] - The expenditure completion rate for 2025 was 96.8%, slightly lower than the average of 98.9% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed significant improvement, with growth rates in agriculture and community sectors rising by 17% and 29.4%, respectively, in December 2025[5] Future Outlook - The general public budget deficit rate is expected to remain stable in 2026, with plans to expand fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditures[4] - The issuance of government bonds in January 2026 is projected to be significantly higher than the same period in 2025, indicating continued fiscal support[4] - The government aims to mitigate the constraints on fiscal expenditure as prices are expected to stabilize and recover[4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI over three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal price is expected to stabilize due to its high correlation with PPI, with a potential low point for coal prices in 2025, influenced by policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [5] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security demands, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6] - Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 30, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 692 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 61 CNY/ton [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.329 million tons, down 81,000 tons week-on-week but up 1.77 million tons year-on-year [3][42] - The coal inventory index is slightly down to 180.4, indicating a minor decrease in coal stocks [3][53] Coking Coal - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is stable at 1800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 340 CNY/ton [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 771,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4][71] - The coking coal inventory stands at 2.672 million tons, down 7.2% week-on-week [4][71] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily consumption of the six major power plants has decreased to 847,000 tons, down 3.7% week-on-week but up 27.8% year-on-year [42][43] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.185 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [43][44] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 91.2% and 88.3%, respectively, indicating a slight increase [47][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6] - Firms with global resource scarcity attributes, like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are recommended for investment [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November - December 2025, urban investment bonds continued net financing, and the number of first - time bond - issuing entities increased significantly [2]. - The proportion of borrowing new to repay old in the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased in November - December 2025, and there were new financings from 55 association and 118 exchange entities [13]. - In November - December 2025, 57 new urban investment platforms declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, and 2 past new - financing entities borrowed new to repay old after the declaration [13]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. In November - December 2025, urban investment bonds continued net financing, and most of the 94 new bond - issuing entities achieved new financing - The net financing scale of urban investment bonds in November and December was 307 million yuan and 150 million yuan respectively, with a total of 457 million yuan. In November, exchange urban investment bonds changed from net financing in October to net repayment of 82 million yuan, and in December, it turned to net financing of 73 million yuan again; in November, association products turned to net financing of 389 million yuan, and in December, it dropped to 77 million yuan [3][16]. - In December, 14 provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Shandong, Beijing, and Sichuan had positive net financing of urban investment bonds, while 14 provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi had net repayment. In 2025, 18 provinces and cities had positive net financing of urban investment bonds, with Guangdong and Shandong having relatively large scales [3][19]. - The actual early repayment scale of urban investment bonds in November and December was 39 million yuan and 58 million yuan respectively, which decreased compared with 77 million yuan in October, but the scale of announced early repayment and cash tender offer repurchase increased [4][23]. - The number and scale of exchange termination approvals in November and December decreased month - on - month. The number of first - time bond - issuing entities in November and December was 50 and 44 respectively, with the number increasing significantly compared with 27 in October, and the total bond - issuing scale rose to 4.254 billion yuan [4][33]. 2. In November - December 2025, the proportion of borrowing new to repay old in the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, and there were new financings from 55 association and 118 exchange entities - In November and December, the proportion of borrowing new to repay old in the issuance of urban investment bonds was 61.5% and 71.2% respectively, both lower than 77.2% in October [43]. - In November - December, 55 association new - financing entities issued 101 association new bonds with a total scale of 10.3105 billion yuan. 118 exchange new - financing entities issued 152 exchange new bonds with a total scale of 10.037 billion yuan [50][51]. 3. In November - December 2025, 57 new urban investment platforms declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, and 2 past new - financing entities borrowed new to repay old after the declaration - As of the end of December 2025, a total of 573 urban investment entities declared themselves as "market - oriented operating entities" when issuing bonds. In November - December 2025, 57 new urban investment platforms declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, with 37 in the association and 29 in the exchange [55][62]. - Among the 31 entities newly declared in the association in November - December, 22 had issued association public bonds from October 2023 to before the declaration, and 2 of them had new financing before the declaration but borrowed new to repay old after the declaration. In December, 3 newly declared entities in the exchange achieved new financing through exchange private bonds [62]. - As of December 31, 2025, the credit spread of AA - rated market - oriented operating entities was 45.62BP, widening by 6.07BP compared with the end of November; the credit spread of non - declared market - oriented operating entities was 47.55BP, widening by 7.79BP compared with the end of November. The credit spread deviation between market - oriented operating entities and non - declared entities widened from 0.21BP at the end of November to 1.93BP. Overall, the credit spreads of market - oriented operating entities and non - declared market - oriented operating entities have not shown obvious differentiation [10][74].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with expectations[1] - Two members voted against the pause, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, while the remaining ten supported the decision[1] Employment and Inflation - The Fed removed previous language indicating increased downside risks to employment, suggesting some stabilization in the unemployment rate[2] - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE slightly above 2% after excluding tariff impacts, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[2] Economic Growth Outlook - The Fed upgraded its economic outlook to "expanding at a moderate pace," reflecting improved economic data compared to previous assessments[2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stabilization, driven by resilient consumer spending and reduced negative impacts from investment[2] Market Reactions and Future Projections - Market expectations for rate cuts in March and April have decreased, with probabilities rising to 86.5% and 74% respectively[3] - The necessity for further rate cuts by the Fed is diminishing, as the labor market shows signs of stabilization and inflation lacks upward momentum[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and a downturn in the U.S. economy exceeding expectations[3]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "tightening then loosening" approach, with potential rate cuts anticipated in the second half of the year if Powell maintains a hawkish stance during his term[19] - The US dollar is projected to weaken further, especially as the dollar index has already fallen below 97, influenced by a loose monetary policy environment and increased global demand for safety[20][23] Currency and Exchange Rates - The RMB is entering a mid-term appreciation channel, with a potential rise above 6.8, aligning with current export growth trends[5][26] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as a rebalancing act between external and internal demand, with policy shifts indicating a growing importance of domestic consumption[6][28] Consumption and Inflation - Service consumption is expected to grow significantly, supported by policy shifts towards the service sector, following a recovery in consumer sentiment post-pandemic[7][29] - CPI is anticipated to show stronger elasticity compared to PPI, driven by a potential recovery in pork prices and sticky core inflation in services[8][35] Market Performance - The stock market is likely to reach new highs due to ample liquidity and a rebound in profit growth, despite the current economic backdrop being influenced by real estate challenges[10][39] - The technology sector is expected to remain robust, supported by liquidity-driven debt financing and continued interest in high-growth tech assets amid an asset shortage[11][45] Commodity Trends - Gold prices are forecasted to rise further, bolstered by a weakening dollar and ongoing central bank purchases of gold, which are expected to continue throughout the year[12][49]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the lithium industry [7] Core Insights - The lithium supply-demand situation is tight, with a shortage of 0.4 million tons in December 2025, marking four consecutive months of supply shortfall. Total supply for 2025 is projected at 138.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%, while demand is expected to reach 134.54 million tons, up 42.2% year-on-year [4][73] - Lithium prices are expected to remain high, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 99,900 CNY per ton in December, reflecting a 15% month-on-month increase and a 30% year-on-year increase. Prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating at high levels, especially as the market enters a peak season post-Chinese New Year [5] Supply Side Summary - In December 2025, lithium spodumene imports reached approximately 766,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 19%. Total imports for 2025 are estimated at 7,726,700 tons, up 10% year-on-year [3][13] - Lithium carbonate imports in December 2025 were 24,000 tons, reflecting an 8.77% month-on-month increase but a 14.43% year-on-year decrease. Total imports for the year are projected at 243,000 tons, a 3.41% increase year-on-year [20] - Lithium hydroxide imports surged to approximately 5,093 tons in December, a 259% month-on-month increase and a 738% year-on-year increase, with total imports for 2025 estimated at 18,400 tons, up 125.75% year-on-year [25][29] Demand Side Summary - The demand for lithium salts in December 2025 was 144,000 tons, a 1.7% month-on-month increase. The total demand for 2025 is projected at 134.54 million tons, reflecting a 42.2% year-on-year increase [57][73] - The demand for NCM cathodes in December 2025 was 81,400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The total production for the year is expected to be 795,000 tons, up 23.5% year-on-year [34] - The demand for lithium in the power battery sector is projected to increase by 52.1% in 2025, with total production of power batteries expected to reach 1,670.5 GWh, a 53.3% year-on-year increase [58][66] Price and Inventory Summary - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,900 CNY per ton, with a significant increase expected as the market transitions into a peak demand season [5] - Inventory levels are expected to continue decreasing, with a total inventory of 108,900 tons as of January 22, 2026 [9]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In December, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Industrial enterprise profits increased by 5.3% year-on-year in December, reversing from a -13.1% decline in the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018[3] - The profit margin growth in December was a significant support for profit improvement, while the price drag slightly narrowed, contributing to the overall profit recovery[3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB since late November has led to a repatriation of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales difference reaching 25.9% of the trade surplus for the year, the second-highest since 2015[4] - Weak domestic demand continues to constrain revenue and profit improvements for enterprises, although the RMB appreciation may temporarily support profit growth by encouraging the repatriation of overseas profits[3][4] - In the long term, the RMB appreciation could help curb excessive reliance on price competition among export enterprises, promoting a shift towards quality development driven by technology upgrades and brand building[3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[4][5] - For the year 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[5] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points, with notable performance in smart consumer devices, semiconductors, and medical-related manufacturing[5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in average prices for live pigs, with December showing an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered but a decrease in average selling prices. The average price for live pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, down 1.82% month-on-month and down 27.15% year-on-year [2][12] - The report anticipates that the ongoing capacity reduction policies will lead to a long-term increase in the price center for live pigs, benefiting low-cost and high-quality pig farming companies [36] - The beef market is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to a decrease in the number of breeding cows and the implementation of import restrictions on beef, which will tighten market supply [38] - In the poultry sector, the end of the vaccination period has led to a significant increase in the supply of chicken, resulting in a drop in chick prices. However, the egg market is experiencing a price increase due to pre-holiday stocking [46][51] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - December saw a total of 17 listed pig companies slaughter 17.9872 million pigs, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 8.87% year-on-year [11] - The average selling price for pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [12] - The report notes a slight recovery in the average weight of pigs slaughtered, which was 128.89 kg as of January 22 [25] 2. Cattle Industry - The price of calves has continued to rise, with the price for fattening bulls at 25.66 yuan/kg and calves at 33.09 yuan/kg as of January 23 [38] - The report indicates that the supply of beef is expected to tighten, leading to a favorable long-term price outlook [38] 3. Poultry Industry - The end of the vaccination period has resulted in a drop in chick prices to 2.2 yuan/chick, while chicken prices remain stable at 7.5 yuan/kg [46] - The egg market is seeing an increase in prices, with the average price for eggs at 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.64% week-on-week [46] 4. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [59]