行业热点：全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，中金拟吸收合并东兴、 信达。（1）全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，上线 4 天突破百万下载。 （2）中金拟吸收合并东兴、信达，券业格局再迎改变。（3）2025 量子科 技和产业大会在合肥举行，量子领域多项重大成果集中发布。 行业配置：阶段性再平衡 策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 如何看待全球风险偏好的降温？ 投资要点： 本周（11/17-11/21）市场普遍承压，全 A 收跌-5.13%。从指数情况看， 上证 50、中证红利跌幅较窄，创业板指、微盘股受挫严重。从风格情况看， 金融地产跌幅较窄，先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万行业全部收跌，银行、 传媒、食品饮料跌幅较窄，基础化工、综合、电力设备领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差上升，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差上升至 0.8%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度上升。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑输市场，主题热度主要聚集在水产、拼多多合作商、中船系。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降 ...

行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 11 月 24 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：静待十五五规划 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 11 月 18 日，解放军报报道，日前，海军福建舰航母编队组织海上多 科目训练，这是福建舰入列后首次海上实兵训练。歼-35、歼-15T、歼-15DT、 空警-600 等多型舰载机在福建舰陆续完成了多架次弹射起飞和着舰训练， 有效检验了福建舰电磁弹射、回收和甲板作业能力。 2）隐身材料：【佳驰科技】、【华秦科技】； 3）深海：【西部材料】、【中国海防】； 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 11 月 17 日，2025 迪拜国际航空展开幕,，中航工业集团组织中航技以 "全面迈向高端新时代"为主题参展。本届航展，航空工业集团"翼龙" -X、"20 家族"等高端航空装备悉数亮相，进一步开拓国际市场。其中， 阿联酋空军"骑士"表演队换装 L15 高级教练机后带来精彩全球首秀，新 型高商载货运无人机概念方案首次面向全球市场进行展出，"翼龙"-X 无 人机首次以静展形式亮相境外航展。展区展示了由战斗机、直升机、教练 机、运输机、无人机组成的谱 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that US stocks are under pressure, showing a volatile adjustment trend influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, delayed economic data releases, and earnings reports from major tech companies [1][7] - The non-farm payroll data for September was significantly higher than expected, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, compared to a previous value of -4,000 and an expectation of 50,000 [2][8] - The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.4% in September, exceeding both the previous value and the expectation of 4.3% [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the market anticipates a 71% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by comments from various Fed officials [1][9] - The report notes that the short-term outlook for US stocks is challenged by high valuations and economic data uncertainty, while AI and technological innovation remain long-term growth drivers [1][7] Group 3 - In the global asset market, major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 1.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 5.13%, marking the largest decline [2][26] - The report details that the major equity markets primarily exhibited a downward trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index and Hang Seng Index experiencing significant declines [2][29] Group 4 - The report provides updates on key economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone economic sentiment index and a decline in the UK consumer confidence index [3][45][49] - Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase, indicating inflationary pressures [3][59]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on enhancing industrial quality and efficiency, ensuring housing security, fostering a technology innovation ecosystem, and promoting financial connectivity to solidify the foundation for high-quality economic development [12][14][19] - The report indicates that the A-share market experienced a downward trend across major sectors, with the largest declines seen in industrial trade and comprehensive (-12.10%), electrical equipment (-9.54%), and daily consumer retail (-8.88%) [23][26] Group 2: Industry Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments have initiated the "East Silk West Solid" project to optimize the silk industry layout, aiming to establish around 10 leading enterprises with over 10 billion yuan in revenue by 2028 [13] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association is set to implement a cost disclosure system for lithium iron phosphate, addressing the industry's ongoing losses and promoting fair pricing practices [14] - The Ministry of Finance has announced early budget allocations for housing security projects, emphasizing the importance of effective fund management and oversight [15] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the automotive sector, sales of various types of truck-mounted cranes reached 1,907 units in October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with domestic sales growing by 2.41% [18] - The semiconductor design industry in China has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 19.6% from 2006 to 2025, indicating robust growth potential driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles [19] - The consumer market for collectible toys has seen significant growth, with retail sales projected to reach 55.83 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting a new economic growth point within the toy industry [20]

Group 1 - The report highlights a combination of strong non-farm payrolls and dovish Federal Reserve actions as illogical, suggesting that the resulting decline in U.S. markets may become a norm in the upcoming quarter [3][9] - The ongoing technological revolution may face a "bubble burst" moment, emphasizing the need to monitor whether technology positively impacts demand [3][9] - Market sentiment is expected to remain weak in the short term, recommending a cautious approach to positioning and waiting for better opportunities [3][9] Group 2 - Fiscal stimulus is anticipated to be a primary support mechanism for the U.S. economy moving forward [3][9] - The allocation towards the energy sector is seen as a response to overheating expectations regarding U.S. AI investments, suggesting a focus on short to medium-term trading strategies [3][9] - Long-term optimism is expressed for sectors such as insurance, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3][9] Group 3 - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 119,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 51,000 [8] - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in the previous month, indicating a healthy increase in labor force participation [8][10] - The report notes that the increase in labor force participation suggests more individuals are entering the job market, which may lead to a temporary rise in unemployment rates as they seek employment [8][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual reduction in production capacity in the pig farming sector, with the number of breeding sows in China dropping below 40 million as of October, reflecting a decrease of over 350,000 from September [2][35]. - The report suggests that the recent losses in pig farming, combined with capacity control policies, are likely to enhance expectations for production capacity reduction, which may lead to a long-term increase in pig prices [2][35]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as TianKang Biological, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture [2][35]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices initially declined but showed slight recovery later in the week, with an average price of 11.62 CNY/kg as of November 21, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 CNY/kg [11]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 128.81 kg, up by 0.33 kg week-on-week, driven by improved weight gain due to lower temperatures [24][35]. - The report indicates that the industry is currently facing losses, but the expected reduction in production capacity may lead to higher long-term price stability for quality pig farming companies [35]. Cattle Farming - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly decreased, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.58 CNY/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week, while calf prices increased to 32 CNY/kg, up 0.63% week-on-week [38]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with prices anticipated to enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [38]. Dairy Farming - The price of raw milk is currently at a low point, recorded at 3.03 CNY/kg, which is a 31% decrease from the peak [39]. - The ongoing losses in the dairy sector are expected to continue driving production capacity reduction, with a potential stabilization and recovery in raw milk prices anticipated as supply contracts [39]. Poultry Farming - The report indicates a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chickens, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.15 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.03 CNY/kg week-on-week [46]. - The price of chicken eggs averaged 6.25 CNY/kg, down 0.24 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery due to supply constraints from ongoing avian influenza outbreaks [46][49]. Agricultural Products - The report notes a correction in soybean meal prices following the USDA report, with spot prices at 3070 CNY/ton, down 28 CNY/ton week-on-week [62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring actual soybean purchases and planting weather in South America for future price movements [62].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of enhanced policy support for the construction materials sector, particularly in Q4, highlighting potential investment opportunities [2][3] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from supply-side reforms and a recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and supportive government policies [4][6] - The report notes that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with a higher sensitivity to policy easing, which may lead to a recovery in the demand for construction materials [4][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has initiated a national urban renewal meeting, focusing on improving housing and community quality [4] - In Beijing, from January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing was 8.159 million square meters, down 3.7% year-on-year, with residential sales down 7.3% [4] - National cement production from January to November reached 1.54 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [4] Market Data - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement was 341.6 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous week and down 18.6% year-on-year [5][13] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1102.9 yuan/ton, down 3.4% from the previous week and down 20.7% year-on-year [5][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [6] 2. Undervalued companies with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [6] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming out, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [6]

基础化工 2025 年 11 月 23 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：光刻材料龙头上市，阿克苏诺贝尔 和艾仕得合并剑指全球第二 团队成员 分析师： 孙范彦卿 (S0210524050021) sfyq30569@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 相关报告 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 4834.46 点，环比下跌 7.34%。 其中，涨幅前五的有晨光新材(16.37%)、彤程新材(14.75%)、上海新阳(9.42%)、 南大光电(8.47%)、八亿时空(2.96%)；跌幅前五的有奥克股份(-19.58%)、三祥 新材(-15.92%)、皖维高新(-15.33%)、中环股份(-14.85%)、斯迪克(-14.74%)。 六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报7153.92点，环比下跌7.08%； 申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1053.67 点，环比下跌 5.9%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 7320.73 点，环比下跌 5.41%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1417.19 点，环比下跌 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug industry is entering a significant commercialization phase in 2025, with major advancements in product launches and new platform validations expected [16]. - Alnylam's AMVUTTRA is projected to exceed $2 billion in sales, marking a significant milestone for small nucleic acid drugs [3][17]. - Ionis is anticipated to have multiple catalysts in 2026, with key products like Olezarsen showing promising results [25]. - Arrowhead has launched its first commercial product, Plozasiran, and is focusing on its innovative Trim platform for weight loss and CNS projects [35]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance of Recommended Pharmaceutical Combinations - The recommended combinations outperformed the pharmaceutical index by 2.4 percentage points but underperformed the broader market by 0.6 percentage points [12]. 2. Small Nucleic Acid Industry Update - The small nucleic acid sector is witnessing rapid commercialization and platform breakthroughs, with significant investment opportunities emerging [16]. - Alnylam's AMVUTTRA sales are expected to reach $2.475 to $2.525 billion for the year, reflecting strong market demand [23]. - Ionis's Olezarsen has shown a 72% reduction in triglycerides in patients, indicating a strong commercial outlook [17][25]. - Arrowhead's Plozasiran is now approved for treating familial chylomicronemia syndrome, marking a significant achievement for the company [17]. 3. Weekly Market Review of the Pharmaceutical Sector - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 6.8% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3 percentage points [47]. - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 14.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points [47]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Hainan Haiyao (+23.8%) and Changyao Holdings (+19.7%) [59]. 4. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report suggests a continued focus on innovative drugs, CXO, and the pharmaceutical supply chain, especially with upcoming ASH conference data releases [4]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 28.5, indicating a relative premium over the broader market [54].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential of second-generation 4-1BB agonists, particularly dual-target antibodies, which have shown promising efficacy while addressing safety concerns associated with liver toxicity [4][24] - The report highlights significant recent industry events, including Merck's acquisition of Cidara for approximately $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera, indicating a trend of consolidation in the biopharmaceutical sector [6] - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for China's innovative drug sector, driven by increasing data catalysts and new product sales, recommending specific companies for investment [6] Summary by Sections 4-1BB Overview - 4-1BB (CD137) is a key member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, crucial for T cell activation and immune response enhancement [4][10] - The second-generation CAR-T cell technology utilizing 4-1BB has been validated for inducing prolonged activation and survival of CAR-T cells in vivo [4][12] First-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - First-generation 4-1BB agonists like urelumab and utomilumab faced limitations due to liver toxicity and insufficient efficacy [16][22] - Urelumab demonstrated significant hepatotoxicity at doses ≥1.0 mg/kg, leading to its discontinuation [21][22] Second-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - Second-generation 4-1BB agonists are primarily dual-specific antibodies targeting various pathways, with a focus on balancing efficacy and safety [24][26] - LBL-024, a promising candidate, has shown unprecedented efficacy and is expected to submit a BLA by Q3 2026 [4][6] Recent Industry Events - Merck's acquisition of Cidara for $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera highlight ongoing consolidation in the biopharmaceutical industry [6] - The report notes that the innovative drug sector is under pressure but is expected to rebound with a focus on companies with strong revenue capabilities [6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with differentiated innovation pipelines and strong revenue capabilities, including specific biopharma and pharma leaders [6] - Suggested companies for investment include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and I-MAB, among others [6]