行 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 31 日 业 研 究 机械设备 超声脑机接口启新篇，中国方案破解脑病治疗困局 投资要点： 技术突破创新，超声精准打开血脑屏障 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日，复旦大学联合华山医院在国家重点研发计划项目启动会上， 发布国内首例采用自主研制超声诊疗一体化装置"UltraBrainPad"的临 床试验成果。该半侵入式技术为全球第三种方案，通过手持式探头结 合 AI 图像识别，3 分钟即可打开胶质母细胞瘤患者血脑屏障，药物浓 度平均提升 8 倍，6 小时后屏障自动关闭，操作便捷、成本可控且安全 性优于国际水平，成功破解传统技术感染风险高、精度不足等难题。 赛道拓展赋能，惠及多种脑病治疗场景 作为国家重点研发计划项目，该技术已启动复发胶质母细胞瘤临 床研究，未来将打造超声脑机接口新赛道。除脑肿瘤药物治疗外，其 科研成果还将向神经调控、脑机融合方向转化，有望为阿尔兹海默病、 头痛、失眠等多种脑病提供全新治疗路径，凭借基层可及的优势，让 更多患者受益于这一"中国方案"。 岩山科技、汉威科技、三博脑科、创新医疗、东方中科、翔宇医 疗、熵基科技、诚益通、伟思医疗、麦澜德、爱朋医疗、倍益康等。 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, the general public budget revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of -1.7%, falling short of the target growth of 0.1%[4] - The general fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates for 2025 were -2.9% and 3.7%, respectively[3] - In December 2025, general fiscal revenue dropped by 13.3 percentage points to -18.5% compared to the previous month[3] Tax Revenue Performance - Tax revenue growth turned negative in December 2025, with a decline of 11.5%[4] - Central government revenue saw a significant drop of 50.3% year-on-year, while local revenue remained stable at 4.1%[4] - In December 2025, the growth rate of corporate income tax fell sharply by 13.1 percentage points, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year[4] Fiscal Expenditure Insights - Total fiscal expenditure in 2025 was CNY 28.7 trillion, with a growth rate of 1%, below the target of 4.4%[5] - The expenditure completion rate for 2025 was 96.8%, slightly lower than the average of 98.9% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed significant improvement, with growth rates in agriculture and community sectors rising by 17% and 29.4%, respectively, in December 2025[5] Future Outlook - The general public budget deficit rate is expected to remain stable in 2026, with plans to expand fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditures[4] - The issuance of government bonds in January 2026 is projected to be significantly higher than the same period in 2025, indicating continued fiscal support[4] - The government aims to mitigate the constraints on fiscal expenditure as prices are expected to stabilize and recover[4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI over three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal price is expected to stabilize due to its high correlation with PPI, with a potential low point for coal prices in 2025, influenced by policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [5] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security demands, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6] - Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 30, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 692 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 61 CNY/ton [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.329 million tons, down 81,000 tons week-on-week but up 1.77 million tons year-on-year [3][42] - The coal inventory index is slightly down to 180.4, indicating a minor decrease in coal stocks [3][53] Coking Coal - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is stable at 1800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 340 CNY/ton [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 771,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4][71] - The coking coal inventory stands at 2.672 million tons, down 7.2% week-on-week [4][71] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily consumption of the six major power plants has decreased to 847,000 tons, down 3.7% week-on-week but up 27.8% year-on-year [42][43] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.185 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [43][44] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 91.2% and 88.3%, respectively, indicating a slight increase [47][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6] - Firms with global resource scarcity attributes, like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are recommended for investment [6]

固 定 收 益 2026 年 01 月 29 日 25 年 11-12 月城投债延续净融资 首次发债主体 数量继续放量——25 年 11-12 月城投债发行审批跟踪 25 年 11-12 月城投债延续净融资 首次发债主体数量明显增加 固 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 11、12 月城投债净融资规模分别为 307 亿元和 150 亿元，合计 457 亿元。其中，11 月交易所城投债由 10 月的净融资转为净偿还 82 亿元， 12 月再度转为净融资 73 亿元；11 月协会产品转为净融资 389 亿元， 12 月回落至 77 亿元。12 月广东、山东、北京、四川等 14 个省市城投 债净融资为正，江苏、浙江、陕西等 14 个省市 12 月城投债净偿还。 2025 年全年共 18 个省市城投债净融资规模为正，其中广东和山东的 净融资规模较大，其余 13 个城投债净偿还的省市中江苏、湖南、重庆 等地净偿还规模较大。相比于 2024 年，近一年内天津的城投债净偿还 规模大幅减少，广东的净融资规模大幅上升，浙江和甘肃由大规模净 偿还转为净融资，而福建、四川的净融资规模大幅减少，重庆、湖南 的净偿还规模大幅上升，江西、上海 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with expectations[1] - Two members voted against the pause, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, while the remaining ten supported the decision[1] Employment and Inflation - The Fed removed previous language indicating increased downside risks to employment, suggesting some stabilization in the unemployment rate[2] - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE slightly above 2% after excluding tariff impacts, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[2] Economic Growth Outlook - The Fed upgraded its economic outlook to "expanding at a moderate pace," reflecting improved economic data compared to previous assessments[2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stabilization, driven by resilient consumer spending and reduced negative impacts from investment[2] Market Reactions and Future Projections - Market expectations for rate cuts in March and April have decreased, with probabilities rising to 86.5% and 74% respectively[3] - The necessity for further rate cuts by the Fed is diminishing, as the labor market shows signs of stabilization and inflation lacks upward momentum[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and a downturn in the U.S. economy exceeding expectations[3]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "tightening then loosening" approach, with potential rate cuts anticipated in the second half of the year if Powell maintains a hawkish stance during his term[19] - The US dollar is projected to weaken further, especially as the dollar index has already fallen below 97, influenced by a loose monetary policy environment and increased global demand for safety[20][23] Currency and Exchange Rates - The RMB is entering a mid-term appreciation channel, with a potential rise above 6.8, aligning with current export growth trends[5][26] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as a rebalancing act between external and internal demand, with policy shifts indicating a growing importance of domestic consumption[6][28] Consumption and Inflation - Service consumption is expected to grow significantly, supported by policy shifts towards the service sector, following a recovery in consumer sentiment post-pandemic[7][29] - CPI is anticipated to show stronger elasticity compared to PPI, driven by a potential recovery in pork prices and sticky core inflation in services[8][35] Market Performance - The stock market is likely to reach new highs due to ample liquidity and a rebound in profit growth, despite the current economic backdrop being influenced by real estate challenges[10][39] - The technology sector is expected to remain robust, supported by liquidity-driven debt financing and continued interest in high-growth tech assets amid an asset shortage[11][45] Commodity Trends - Gold prices are forecasted to rise further, bolstered by a weakening dollar and ongoing central bank purchases of gold, which are expected to continue throughout the year[12][49]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨，同比+39%，环 比+20%，占比17%；12月从尼日利亚进口量8万吨，同比+59%，环比-13%， 占比10%；12月从南非进口量10.9万吨，同比+13%，环比增加约10.9万吨。 2025年锂辉石总进口量约772.67万吨，同比+10%。 碳酸锂：2025年12月碳酸锂进口量2.40万吨，环比+8.77%，同比 -14.43%；2025年碳酸锂总进口量24.30万吨，同比+3.41%，增速较2024 年下滑约44.6pct。2025年12月，碳酸锂出口量911.9吨，环比+20.11%， 同比+45.97%；2025年碳酸锂总出口量5289.6吨，同比+38.17%。 氢氧化锂：2025年12月氢氧化锂进口 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In December, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Industrial enterprise profits increased by 5.3% year-on-year in December, reversing from a -13.1% decline in the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018[3] - The profit margin growth in December was a significant support for profit improvement, while the price drag slightly narrowed, contributing to the overall profit recovery[3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB since late November has led to a repatriation of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales difference reaching 25.9% of the trade surplus for the year, the second-highest since 2015[4] - Weak domestic demand continues to constrain revenue and profit improvements for enterprises, although the RMB appreciation may temporarily support profit growth by encouraging the repatriation of overseas profits[3][4] - In the long term, the RMB appreciation could help curb excessive reliance on price competition among export enterprises, promoting a shift towards quality development driven by technology upgrades and brand building[3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[4][5] - For the year 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[5] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points, with notable performance in smart consumer devices, semiconductors, and medical-related manufacturing[5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in average prices for live pigs, with December showing an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered but a decrease in average selling prices. The average price for live pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, down 1.82% month-on-month and down 27.15% year-on-year [2][12] - The report anticipates that the ongoing capacity reduction policies will lead to a long-term increase in the price center for live pigs, benefiting low-cost and high-quality pig farming companies [36] - The beef market is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to a decrease in the number of breeding cows and the implementation of import restrictions on beef, which will tighten market supply [38] - In the poultry sector, the end of the vaccination period has led to a significant increase in the supply of chicken, resulting in a drop in chick prices. However, the egg market is experiencing a price increase due to pre-holiday stocking [46][51] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - December saw a total of 17 listed pig companies slaughter 17.9872 million pigs, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 8.87% year-on-year [11] - The average selling price for pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [12] - The report notes a slight recovery in the average weight of pigs slaughtered, which was 128.89 kg as of January 22 [25] 2. Cattle Industry - The price of calves has continued to rise, with the price for fattening bulls at 25.66 yuan/kg and calves at 33.09 yuan/kg as of January 23 [38] - The report indicates that the supply of beef is expected to tighten, leading to a favorable long-term price outlook [38] 3. Poultry Industry - The end of the vaccination period has resulted in a drop in chick prices to 2.2 yuan/chick, while chicken prices remain stable at 7.5 yuan/kg [46] - The egg market is seeing an increase in prices, with the average price for eggs at 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.64% week-on-week [46] 4. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [59]