2025 年 12 月 14 日 固 定 收 益 如何理解中央经济工作会议的货币政策基调 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 251212 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周央行 7 天逆回购净投放 47 亿，公开市场操作影响有限， 但月初资金需求不高，叠加政府债缴款压力减弱，资金维持宽松，隔夜匿 名下限降至 1.25%，DR001 周二后再度降至 1.30%下方并持续走低，周五 DR001 降至 1.27%，再创下 23 年 8 月以来的新低。此外，周五盘后央行 宣布将于 15 日进行 6000 亿 6M 买断式回购操作，净投放 2000 亿。 益 定 期 报 告 本周质押式回购成交量持续回升，日均成交量较上周上升 0.15 万亿至 8.08 万亿；质押式回购整体规模周二后持续回升，创下 7 月以来的新高。 分机构来看，大行净融出先降后升，股份行净融出上周持续回升后维持高 位，而城商行净融出在周一回升后窄幅波动，各类银行净融出均高于上周， 其中股份行升幅最大；银行整体刚性净融出持续上升，周四再度突破至 5 万亿元以上。非银刚性融出周四前维持震荡但周五明显回升，主要是货基 融出持续上升；各类非银机构刚性融入规 ...

Group 1: Theme Identification and Investment Strategies - The report aims to create a tool for theme investment by identifying theme opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices, allowing investment managers to focus on logical analysis and decision-making[3] - It emphasizes the construction of investable theme indices by mapping stocks and convertible bonds, providing sector classification and institutional holdings as auxiliary indicators[3] - The "right-side breakout" strategy captures signals for theme initiation, focusing on participating in the first wave of market movements, especially in bullish and volatile markets[4] Group 2: Performance Metrics and Backtesting Results - Backtesting results indicate that the right-side breakout strategy shows significant excess returns, particularly in bullish markets, with a holding period success rate of 69.6% and an average return of 5.1% in 2024[24] - The right-side trend strategy is designed to identify long-term upward trends, with a focus on timing exits, showing significant excess returns in both volatile and bullish markets[42] - The bottom stabilization and reversal strategies are aimed at identifying opportunities at low price levels, with backtesting showing a 50.5% success rate and an average return of 0.9% over five days from 2021 to 2024[51] Group 3: Institutional Participation and Risk Factors - As of Q3 2025, indices with a 2-5% fund holding ratio accounted for the highest proportion at 43.4%, with technology theme indices like optical modules having the highest fund holding at 20.4%[56] - The report highlights several risk factors, including historical performance not guaranteeing future results, industry uncertainties, and geopolitical risks[4]

利率回暖信用债企稳 二永债表现相对强势 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251212 投资要点： 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 14 日 ➢ 利率震荡下行信用债企稳，信用利差多数略有走阔。本周利率债总体 震荡偏强，信用债除 7Y 期品种外，收益率多数跟随利率下行。1Y 期 AA 及以上等级信用债收益率下行 1BP，AA-级下行 7BP；3Y 期各等级信用债 收益下行 1-3BP；5Y 期 AAA 级信用债收益率下行 3BP，AA+级持平，AA 级上行 2BP，AA-级下行 1BP；7Y 期各等级信用债收益率上行 1-2BP；10Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1BP。信用利差多数略有走阔。 ➢ 本周城投债利差多数上行 1-2BP。外部评级 AA 和 AA+平台信用利差 总体较上周均上行 2BP，AAA 平台总体上行 1BP。分行政级别来看，省级、 地市级和区县级平台信用利差总体较上周均上行 2BP。 ➢ 产业债利差总体上行，混合所有制和民企地产债利差升幅较大。本周 央国企地产债利差上行 3-4BP，混合所有制地产债利差上行 17BP，民企地 产债利差上行 26BP。各等级煤炭债利差上行 1BP；AAA 等级钢铁 ...

Investment Insights - The ongoing competition in computing power chips between China and the US is a significant indicator of long-term global technological deflation [2] - The potential collapse of the US AI bubble could lead to a simultaneous release of global dollar debt risks [2] - Attention should be paid to the risk signals indicated by a potential temporary strengthening of the dollar, which may subsequently lead to a triple hit on the dollar, US bonds, and US stocks [2] - The Chinese market is expected to undergo a long-term style shift during the release of overseas risks, accompanied by a significant and sustained appreciation of the Renminbi [2] Sector and Company Focus - Long-term optimism is noted for sectors such as insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3] - The recent FOMC meeting indicated a shift to a neutral stance, with the Fed no longer pre-setting a path for interest rate cuts, which will depend on future economic data [8][9] - The Fed acknowledged a cooling labor market, with potential negative employment growth, which explains the decision to cut rates despite inflation remaining above target [9] - The report highlights a complex economic scenario characterized by high growth and weak employment, partly attributed to increased productivity [9] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.42% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.29% [13] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.74%, indicating a rebound in growth stocks [20] - Sector performance showed a clear divergence, with technology and advanced manufacturing leading gains, while cyclical, consumer, and healthcare sectors experienced declines [27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company, Yao Liang Song, has shown confidence by increasing his stake through his spouse, Zhang Qiu Fang, who purchased 210,000 shares for a total of 10.47 million yuan, representing 0.03% of the total share capital [2]. - The company has a robust cash position, with a commitment to distribute at least 1.5 billion yuan in cash dividends annually over the next three years, supported by a net cash balance of 9.4 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [3]. - The company's operating profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a solid underlying business performance despite challenges in net profit [4]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.44 billion yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan, with growth rates of -6.1%, +9.3%, and +9.0% respectively, suggesting a recovery trend [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to have revenues of 18.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight decline from 2024, followed by a recovery to 19.30 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.34 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease to 4.01 yuan in 2025, before rising to 4.38 yuan in 2026 and 4.77 yuan in 2027 [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated at 12.6x for 2025, indicating a relatively attractive valuation compared to historical levels [6].

行 业 研 究 医药生物 2025 年 12 月 14 日 生物安全法案出现积极变化，重视 CXO 机会！ 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 12 月 8 日- 2025 年 12 月 12 日）中信医药指 数下跌 1.1%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.0 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 15 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 15.6%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.8 pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 16 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：昭衍新 药（+23.4%）、热景生物（+16.8%）、海创药业（+13.9%）、万泽股份（+13.4%）、 重药控股（+13%）。 降息落地及政策不确定性消除，重视外需型 CXO 投资机会：（1）美联 储 12 月降息如期落地，26 年预期再降 25 个基点。从海外生物科技一级市 场（PE/VC）投融资情况来看，25Q2-Q3 环比 25Q1 有所波动，我们认为主 要系美联储降息预期有所延后所致。随着美联储降息继续落地，海外生物 科技的一级市场投融资金额有望持续改善，带动 CDMO 的海外订单需求持 续回暖。（2）新版《生物安全法 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) rather than merely addressing internal competition. Seasonal demand during the "迎峰度冬" period has led to a 4.1% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in PPI, marking two consecutive months of increase. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that stabilizing coal prices is crucial. The lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies as "involution" competition is addressed in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Despite unclear demand changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with a focus on high-quality core assets as primary investment targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of December 12, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 745 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 49 CNY/ton. The average daily output of 462 sample mines is 5.571 million tons, up 59,000 tons week-on-week but down 5.6% year-on-year. Power plant daily consumption has slightly increased, while coal inventory at Qinhuangdao has surged, with a coal inventory index of 212, up 10.7% [3][5]. Coking Coal - As of December 12, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is stable at 1,630 CNY/ton. The average daily output of 523 sample mines is 750,000 tons, down 0.4% year-on-year. The daily iron output is 2.291 million tons, down 1.4% year-on-year. The coking plant operating rate is 77.3%, slightly up week-on-week [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the coal sector based on several criteria: 1. Companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. 2. Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., Guanghui Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and Gansu Energy. 3. Companies with globally scarce resources benefiting from long-term supply tightness, such as Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coal International. 4. Companies with coal-electricity integration models that stabilize cyclical fluctuations, including Shaanxi Energy, Xinji Energy, and Huaihe Energy [6][5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes domestic demand as a priority, with a focus on subsequent consumption policies to stimulate both goods and service consumption [3][15] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting investment opportunities within the AI industry chain [4][14] - The report indicates that the government will continue to implement policies to boost consumption, including potential extensions of subsidies and consumption vouchers [15] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference - The conference outlined eight key points, prioritizing domestic demand and the construction of a robust domestic market, alongside innovation, reform, and external openness [3][13] - Specific actions include implementing consumption enhancement initiatives and urban-rural income increase plans, as well as optimizing the supply of quality goods and services [3][15] Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 1.9% this week, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances seeing drops of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively [5][16] - Raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with LME copper increasing by 0.82% and LME aluminum decreasing by 0.03% [5][16] Industry Tracking - The report tracks various segments within the home appliance industry, noting significant sales data and price trends for key brands and products [29][30][34][35] - For instance, brands like Haier and Midea have reported varying sales performance across different product categories, with some experiencing substantial declines [29][30][34] Upstream Tracking - The report includes tracking of raw material prices and shipping trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures within the industry [37][40] - It highlights the importance of monitoring these factors as they can significantly impact the profitability of home appliance manufacturers [37][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December is expected to improve demand in the U.S. real estate sector, which could positively impact related export-oriented companies [3][7]. - The price of hardwood and softwood pulp has increased by $20 per ton, with softwood pulp priced at $700 per ton and hardwood pulp at $570 per ton, providing cost support for the pulp industry [3][7]. - The actual controller of Oppein Home announced a plan to increase shareholding by investing between 50 million to 100 million yuan, highlighting the company's strong cash position and potential for dividend support [3][7]. Summary by Sections Export Chain - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut aligns with market expectations, and further cuts are anticipated next year, which may lead to improved orders for export-oriented companies [7]. - Home Depot's cautious sales guidance for the upcoming year reflects consumer hesitance in making large purchases due to high-interest rates, but growth in home renovation is expected as housing market pressures ease [7]. - Shipping costs have shown slight increases, with the CCFI and SCFI indices rising by 0.3% and 7.8% respectively [7]. Home Furnishing - Oppein Home's major shareholder has initiated a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in the company's financial health and potential for future growth [7]. - The home furnishing sector is still in an adjustment phase, but valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [7]. Paper Industry - As of December 12, 2025, prices for various paper products have shown mixed trends, with white cardboard prices increasing by 20 yuan per ton, while double glue paper and copper plate paper prices have decreased [7][49]. - The pulp price increases are expected to support cost structures in the paper industry, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [3][7]. Packaging - The packaging sector is experiencing changes in control among companies, with potential impacts on stock performance [7]. - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and stable operations in the packaging sector [7]. Light Industry Consumption - E-commerce sales for personal care products have shown positive growth, with specific brands outperforming the market [7]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies involved in oral care and medical products, as well as those expanding their product lines [7]. New Tobacco Products - British American Tobacco anticipates growth in its new tobacco segment, driven by the Velo brand, while facing challenges in the HNB segment due to increased competition [11]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International for their diverse product offerings in the new tobacco market [11]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown a decline in exports, with specific categories experiencing varying performance [25][31]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are adapting to changing consumer demands in the apparel market [25].

Group 1 - The report highlights that only one of the six sub-industries in the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns in the recent week [2] - The innovative drug industry in China is characterized by high investment, high risk, and long development cycles, focusing on cutting-edge technologies such as targeted therapy and gene editing [3][8] - The market size of China's innovative drug industry is projected to grow from approximately 819.8 billion RMB in 2020 to 1.14 trillion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.53%, and is expected to reach 1.22 trillion RMB by 2025 [3][9] Group 2 - The number of approved innovative drugs in China has significantly increased from 3 in 2015 to 48 in 2024, with 50 new first-class innovative drugs expected to be added to the medical insurance catalog in 2025 [9][21] - The report indicates that the innovative drug sector is becoming the core driving force for the pharmaceutical industry's upgrade, transitioning China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug powerhouse" [9][21] - The report notes that the innovative drug industry is currently facing both opportunities and challenges, including policy support and intensified competition, which may compress profits [10] Group 3 - The recent addition of 114 new drugs to the national medical insurance catalog includes 50 first-class innovative drugs, with a success rate of 88% [21] - The report emphasizes that the central economic work conference has outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, including optimizing drug procurement and deepening medical insurance payment reforms [25] - The establishment of the medical device technology review center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has led to a 150% increase in the approval of innovative medical devices over the past five years [26]