- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨，同比+39%，环 比+20%，占比17%；12月从尼日利亚进口量8万吨，同比+59%，环比-13%， 占比10%；12月从南非进口量10.9万吨，同比+13%，环比增加约10.9万吨。 2025年锂辉石总进口量约772.67万吨，同比+10%。 碳酸锂：2025年12月碳酸锂进口量2.40万吨，环比+8.77%，同比 -14.43%；2025年碳酸锂总进口量24.30万吨，同比+3.41%，增速较2024 年下滑约44.6pct。2025年12月，碳酸锂出口量911.9吨，环比+20.11%， 同比+45.97%；2025年碳酸锂总出口量5289.6吨，同比+38.17%。 氢氧化锂：2025年12月氢氧化锂进口 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In December, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Industrial enterprise profits increased by 5.3% year-on-year in December, reversing from a -13.1% decline in the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018[3] - The profit margin growth in December was a significant support for profit improvement, while the price drag slightly narrowed, contributing to the overall profit recovery[3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB since late November has led to a repatriation of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales difference reaching 25.9% of the trade surplus for the year, the second-highest since 2015[4] - Weak domestic demand continues to constrain revenue and profit improvements for enterprises, although the RMB appreciation may temporarily support profit growth by encouraging the repatriation of overseas profits[3][4] - In the long term, the RMB appreciation could help curb excessive reliance on price competition among export enterprises, promoting a shift towards quality development driven by technology upgrades and brand building[3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[4][5] - For the year 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[5] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points, with notable performance in smart consumer devices, semiconductors, and medical-related manufacturing[5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in average prices for live pigs, with December showing an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered but a decrease in average selling prices. The average price for live pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, down 1.82% month-on-month and down 27.15% year-on-year [2][12] - The report anticipates that the ongoing capacity reduction policies will lead to a long-term increase in the price center for live pigs, benefiting low-cost and high-quality pig farming companies [36] - The beef market is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to a decrease in the number of breeding cows and the implementation of import restrictions on beef, which will tighten market supply [38] - In the poultry sector, the end of the vaccination period has led to a significant increase in the supply of chicken, resulting in a drop in chick prices. However, the egg market is experiencing a price increase due to pre-holiday stocking [46][51] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - December saw a total of 17 listed pig companies slaughter 17.9872 million pigs, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 8.87% year-on-year [11] - The average selling price for pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [12] - The report notes a slight recovery in the average weight of pigs slaughtered, which was 128.89 kg as of January 22 [25] 2. Cattle Industry - The price of calves has continued to rise, with the price for fattening bulls at 25.66 yuan/kg and calves at 33.09 yuan/kg as of January 23 [38] - The report indicates that the supply of beef is expected to tighten, leading to a favorable long-term price outlook [38] 3. Poultry Industry - The end of the vaccination period has resulted in a drop in chick prices to 2.2 yuan/chick, while chicken prices remain stable at 7.5 yuan/kg [46] - The egg market is seeing an increase in prices, with the average price for eggs at 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.64% week-on-week [46] 4. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The overall and weighted holdings of public funds in the pharmaceutical sector reached a new low since 2018 in Q4 2025, with the pharmaceutical heavy holdings accounting for 8.0% of all public funds, down 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][9] - The total scale of pharmaceutical funds in Q4 2025 was 394.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.2% from the previous quarter, with active pharmaceutical funds at 177.7 billion yuan, down 14% [20] - The proportion of passive pharmaceutical funds has increased significantly from 18% in Q1 2018 to 55% in Q4 2025, indicating a shift towards passive investment strategies in the sector [20] Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q4 2025, the pharmaceutical sector saw a decrease in active fund holdings, with active pharmaceutical funds accounting for 33% of the total pharmaceutical heavy holdings, up 2 percentage points, while non-pharmaceutical active funds accounted for 26%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][13] - The top five holdings by market value in public funds included Heng Rui Medicine (31.7 billion), WuXi AppTec (29.6 billion), and Innovent Biologics (16.6 billion) [6] - The top three increases in active fund holdings were for Tigermed (1.7 billion), Yimeng Biologics (1.4 billion), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1.3 billion) [6] Sector-Specific Trends - The report highlights a shift in fund holdings towards innovative drugs and CXO services, while traditional Chinese medicine and high-value consumables are underweighted [6] - The report notes that the proportion of holdings in traditional Chinese medicine and biotech has increased, while holdings in BioPharma and CXO have decreased significantly [6][28] - The overall market value of holdings in the Bio-Tech sector reached 7.25% in Q4 2025, marking the highest level since Q1 2018, with active pharmaceutical funds holding 4.9% [28]

行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 究 报 告 锂价：12月，电池级碳酸锂均价9.99万元/吨，环比+15%，同比+30%。 截至2026年1月26日，电池级碳酸锂价格为17.85万元/吨，较年初上涨50%， 较2025年最低点上涨192%。我们判断，当前仍处于下游淡季，锂价或将 维持高位震荡，节后下游进入产销旺季，锂价或重新开启新一轮上涨趋势。 投资建议：当前需求淡季不淡，带动去库，基本面向好驱动锂价持续 上涨至高位震荡，农历春节后下游有望进入旺季，积极备库的背景下供需 将维持紧张格局，锂价有望进一步上涨。建议关注大中、国城、盛新、雅 化、天华、永兴、藏格、天齐、赣锋等。 风险提示 下游需求低于预期；供给端超预期释放产能。 强于大市（维持评级） 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From January 19 - 23, the market fluctuated upwards, with the All - A index rising 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. In terms of style, the cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the medical and financial real - estate sectors led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, more rose than fell, with building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel leading the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks leading the losses [2][11]. - Trump's frequent actions on geopolitical issues have become an important factor affecting global market pricing. The threat of selling US Treasuries has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have also risen due to geopolitical risks [13]. - Currently, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Thinking: Geopolitical Disturbance, "Selling US Treasuries" and Gold and Silver - Market performance: From January 19 - 23, the All - A index rose 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. Cyclical and advanced manufacturing styles led the gains, while medical and financial real - estate styles led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks led the losses [2][11]. - Geopolitical influence: Trump's actions on geopolitical issues have affected market pricing. The plan to sell US Treasuries by some pension funds has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have risen due to geopolitical risks. In the A - share market, micro - cap stocks and cyclical styles led the gains, and the space - photovoltaic concept was active [13][14]. 2. Market Observation: Decline in Stock - Bond Yield Difference and Industry Rotation Intensity 2.1 Market Valuation - The stock - bond yield difference dropped to 0.4%, less than +1 standard deviation. The valuation differentiation coefficient increased by 13.6% month - on - month, and this indicator usually peaks 0.5 - 1 months ahead of the market [22]. 2.2 Market Emotion - The market emotion index decreased by 24.8% month - on - month to 55.4, indicating an adjustment in the overall A - share emotion. The industry rotation intensity (MA5) dropped to 34, below the 40 warning level. The small - cap style was dominant, the micro - cap stock index outperformed the market, and the theme heat was mainly concentrated in gold and jewelry, selected photovoltaic, and glass fiber (13.1%, 11.8%, 11.6% respectively) [23]. 2.3 Market Structure - The market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The proportion of long - position stocks in petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, and basic chemicals ranked among the top. There may be alpha opportunities within the comprehensive, electronics, and household appliances industries [29]. 2.4 Market Funds - The average daily trading amount of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect during the week decreased by 626.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 2.0243 million transactions. The top three stocks in terms of trading volume of the Stock Connect were Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic Technology, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, with their 5 - day gains being - 5.2%, - 3.6%, and - 1.5% respectively. Margin trading funds had a net outflow of 99.8 billion yuan, mainly flowing into the non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and banking industries. ETF funds mainly played a role in hedging the outflow of funds. The change in major index ETFs was - 107.02 billion shares, with CSI 2000, STAR 100, and China Securities 2000 being more popular. The average daily share of newly established equity - biased funds this week was 78.6 billion shares, a year - on - year increase of 203.9% and a 190.0% increase compared with last week [35]. 3. Industry Hotspots - Tesla may sell its humanoid robot "Optimus" to the public by the end of 2027, accelerating the industrial trend [48]. - Musk plans to deploy space - photovoltaic, opening up the development prospects of the photovoltaic industry [49]. - ChatGPT's advertising business is about to be launched, marking a new step in the AI commercialization process [50]. 4. Industry Allocation - In late January, which is the intensive period for annual report performance pre - disclosures, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92% last week. Despite some equity broad - based indices experiencing fluctuations due to ETF fund outflows, convertible bonds showed strong optimism as they were not affected by such factors. Key asset characteristic indicators in the convertible bond market rapidly increased [3][11]. - The short - term overheating indicators have not been triggered yet, but if the market remains strong in the first half of this week, these indicators may appear in the second half [12][18]. - The call provision remains the main short - term valuation game point. It has a disturbing impact on the pricing of equity - like convertible bonds. Historically, call provisions have generally put pressure on the subsequent trends of convertible bonds [20]. - For the underlying stocks, the call is not just an event - based shock. Converting bonds to stocks for "extending the life" of call - announced convertible bonds does not significantly increase returns. The price recovery of underlying stocks is not a high - probability event after conversion and extended holding [21]. - A set of screening criteria for convertible bond conversion investment to achieve effective "extension of life" has been established. From 2019 to now, convertible bonds meeting these criteria have an arithmetic average return of 3.56%, a median return of 2.13%, and a positive return probability of 72%. For convertible bonds meeting these criteria, it is recommended to actively convert at a negative premium rate at the end of the bond's life and hold for 10 trading days [24]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Section 1: Is There a "Second Chance" for Convertible Bonds after Forced Redemption? - **Market Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92% last week. The weighted average price of the entire market's convertible bonds reached 146 yuan, a record high. The number of convertible bond issues with a price > 130 yuan and a conversion premium rate > 20% reached 222, accounting for 58.58% of the entire market. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity between 110 - 130 yuan increased rapidly [11]. - **Overheating Indicators**: The short - term trading signal indicators mainly include the implied 3 - month yield and the moving - average overheating indicator. As of January 23, neither had been triggered, but if the market remains strong in the first half of this week, overheating indicators may appear in the second half [12][18]. - **Impact of Call Provisions**: Call provisions are the main short - term valuation game point, disturbing the pricing of equity - like convertible bonds. From 2019 to now, the arithmetic average return of 441 call - redeemed convertible bonds from the call announcement date to the last trading day was - 4.78%, the median return was - 4.88%, and the positive return probability was only 32.2% [20]. - **Effect of Conversion and Extended Holding**: For underlying stocks, converting call - announced convertible bonds to stocks and extending the holding period does not significantly increase returns. From 2019 to now, the arithmetic average return during the test period was - 0.50%, the median return was - 1.31%, and the positive return probability was 44.93% [21]. - **Screening Criteria for Conversion Investment**: The screening criteria are: on the trading day before the call announcement, the conversion value is between 120 yuan and 135 yuan; the remaining term of the convertible bond is between 1.5 and 4.5 years; the convertible bond's price change from the call announcement date to the last trading day is between - 5% and 10%. From 2019 to now, 25 convertible bonds meet these criteria, with an arithmetic average return of 3.56%, a median return of 2.13%, and a positive return probability of 72% [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (January 19 - 23), the market fluctuated upward, with the All A index rising 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and CSI 500 led the gains, while CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. In terms of style, the cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the medical and financial real - estate sectors led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, more rose than fell [2][11]. - Trump's frequent actions on geopolitical issues have become an important factor affecting global market pricing. The threat of selling US Treasuries and geopolitical risks have led to an influx of funds into gold and silver, and the price of crude oil has also increased due to geopolitical risk premiums [13]. - In the A - share market, after regulatory "cooling" last week, micro - cap stocks and the cyclical style led the gains this week, and commercial aerospace rebounded. The market is pursuing theme elasticity and also exploring low - lying areas. Attention should be paid to sectors with performance fundamentals and those with elasticity [14][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Thinking - Market performance: The All A index rose 1.81% this week. Micro - cap stocks and CSI 500 led the gains, while CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. Cyclical and advanced manufacturing styles led the gains, and medical and financial real - estate styles led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, while non - bank finance, communication, and banking led the losses [2][11]. - Geopolitical impact: Trump's actions on geopolitical issues, such as threatening to impose tariffs on 8 European countries and then reversing the policy, and the plan of some European pension funds to sell US Treasuries, have weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. The price of silver exceeded $100/ounce and gold approached $5000/ounce. Crude oil prices have risen due to geopolitical risks [13]. - A - share market characteristics: After regulatory "cooling" last week, micro - cap stocks and the cyclical style led the gains this week, and commercial aerospace rebounded. The market is also exploring low - lying areas, and the space photovoltaic concept is active [14]. 3.2 Market Observation 3.2.1 Market Valuation - The equity - bond yield spread decreased to 0.4%, less than + 1 standard deviation. The valuation differentiation coefficient increased by 13.6% month - on - month, and this indicator usually peaks 0.5 - 1 month ahead of the market [22]. 3.2.2 Market Emotion - The market emotion index decreased by 24.8% month - on - month to 55.4, indicating an adjustment in the overall A - share market emotion. The industry rotation intensity decreased to 34, below the warning value of 40. The small - cap style is dominant, and the micro - cap stock index outperformed the market. The theme heat is mainly concentrated in gold and jewelry, photovoltaic selection, and glass fiber [23]. 3.2.3 Market Structure - The market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The proportion of long - position stocks in petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, and basic chemicals ranked among the top. There may be alpha opportunities within the sectors of comprehensive, electronics, and household appliances [29]. 3.2.4 Market Funds - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased by 626.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 2.0243 million transactions. The top three stocks in terms of trading volume were Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, and CATL, with 5 - day declines of 5.2%, 3.6%, and 1.5% respectively. Margin trading funds had a net outflow of 9.98 billion yuan, mainly flowing into non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and banking. ETF funds mainly played a role in hedging the outflow of funds. The change of major index ETFs was - 107.02 billion shares, and CSI 2000, STAR 100, and China Securities 2000 were more popular. The average daily share of newly established equity - oriented funds was 7.86 billion shares, a year - on - year increase of 203.9% and a 190.0% increase compared with last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Hotspots - Tesla may sell its humanoid robot "Optimus" to the public by the end of 2027, which will accelerate the industrial trend. Tesla is already using some Optimus robots in the factory, and it is predicted that they will be able to perform more complex tasks by the end of 2026 [48]. - Musk plans to deploy space photovoltaics. SpaceX and Tesla are working together to increase solar capacity, aiming to achieve an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100GW in the next three years, which opens up the development prospects of the photovoltaic industry [49]. - ChatGPT's advertising business is about to be launched, which is an important step in the AI commercialization process. OpenAI has informed more than a dozen advertisers of the plan to launch a chatbot advertising service in early February, with a trial - run advertising expenditure of less than $1 million [50]. 3.4 Industry Allocation - In late January, during the intensive period of annual report performance pre - disclosure, attention should be paid to sectors with performance fundamentals, such as power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain. In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can also be paid to the small - cap style and the "Musk chain" [5][52].

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 26 日 地缘扰动、"抛售美债"与金银 团队成员 投资要点： 本周（1/19-1/23）市场震荡上行，全 A 收涨 1.81%。从指数情况看， 微盘股、中证 500 领涨，沪深 300、上证 50 领跌。从风格情况看，周期、 先进制造领涨，医药医疗、金融地产领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少， 建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁领涨，非银金融、通信、银行领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 0.4%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度下降。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在黄金珠宝、光伏精选、玻璃纤维。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降，石油石化、建筑材料、基础化工多头个股 占比居前，综合、电子、家用电器内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周下降 627 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周下降 202 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为中 际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅 ...