Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of enhanced policy support for the construction materials sector, particularly in Q4, highlighting potential investment opportunities [2][3] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from supply-side reforms and a recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and supportive government policies [4][6] - The report notes that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with a higher sensitivity to policy easing, which may lead to a recovery in the demand for construction materials [4][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has initiated a national urban renewal meeting, focusing on improving housing and community quality [4] - In Beijing, from January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing was 8.159 million square meters, down 3.7% year-on-year, with residential sales down 7.3% [4] - National cement production from January to November reached 1.54 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [4] Market Data - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement was 341.6 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous week and down 18.6% year-on-year [5][13] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1102.9 yuan/ton, down 3.4% from the previous week and down 20.7% year-on-year [5][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [6] 2. Undervalued companies with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [6] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming out, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [6]

基础化工 2025 年 11 月 23 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：光刻材料龙头上市，阿克苏诺贝尔 和艾仕得合并剑指全球第二 团队成员 分析师： 孙范彦卿 (S0210524050021) sfyq30569@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 相关报告 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 4834.46 点，环比下跌 7.34%。 其中，涨幅前五的有晨光新材(16.37%)、彤程新材(14.75%)、上海新阳(9.42%)、 南大光电(8.47%)、八亿时空(2.96%)；跌幅前五的有奥克股份(-19.58%)、三祥 新材(-15.92%)、皖维高新(-15.33%)、中环股份(-14.85%)、斯迪克(-14.74%)。 六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报7153.92点，环比下跌7.08%； 申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1053.67 点，环比下跌 5.9%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 7320.73 点，环比下跌 5.41%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1417.19 点，环比下跌 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug industry is entering a significant commercialization phase in 2025, with major advancements in product launches and new platform validations expected [16]. - Alnylam's AMVUTTRA is projected to exceed $2 billion in sales, marking a significant milestone for small nucleic acid drugs [3][17]. - Ionis is anticipated to have multiple catalysts in 2026, with key products like Olezarsen showing promising results [25]. - Arrowhead has launched its first commercial product, Plozasiran, and is focusing on its innovative Trim platform for weight loss and CNS projects [35]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance of Recommended Pharmaceutical Combinations - The recommended combinations outperformed the pharmaceutical index by 2.4 percentage points but underperformed the broader market by 0.6 percentage points [12]. 2. Small Nucleic Acid Industry Update - The small nucleic acid sector is witnessing rapid commercialization and platform breakthroughs, with significant investment opportunities emerging [16]. - Alnylam's AMVUTTRA sales are expected to reach $2.475 to $2.525 billion for the year, reflecting strong market demand [23]. - Ionis's Olezarsen has shown a 72% reduction in triglycerides in patients, indicating a strong commercial outlook [17][25]. - Arrowhead's Plozasiran is now approved for treating familial chylomicronemia syndrome, marking a significant achievement for the company [17]. 3. Weekly Market Review of the Pharmaceutical Sector - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 6.8% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3 percentage points [47]. - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 14.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points [47]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Hainan Haiyao (+23.8%) and Changyao Holdings (+19.7%) [59]. 4. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report suggests a continued focus on innovative drugs, CXO, and the pharmaceutical supply chain, especially with upcoming ASH conference data releases [4]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 28.5, indicating a relative premium over the broader market [54].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential of second-generation 4-1BB agonists, particularly dual-target antibodies, which have shown promising efficacy while addressing safety concerns associated with liver toxicity [4][24] - The report highlights significant recent industry events, including Merck's acquisition of Cidara for approximately $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera, indicating a trend of consolidation in the biopharmaceutical sector [6] - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for China's innovative drug sector, driven by increasing data catalysts and new product sales, recommending specific companies for investment [6] Summary by Sections 4-1BB Overview - 4-1BB (CD137) is a key member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, crucial for T cell activation and immune response enhancement [4][10] - The second-generation CAR-T cell technology utilizing 4-1BB has been validated for inducing prolonged activation and survival of CAR-T cells in vivo [4][12] First-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - First-generation 4-1BB agonists like urelumab and utomilumab faced limitations due to liver toxicity and insufficient efficacy [16][22] - Urelumab demonstrated significant hepatotoxicity at doses ≥1.0 mg/kg, leading to its discontinuation [21][22] Second-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - Second-generation 4-1BB agonists are primarily dual-specific antibodies targeting various pathways, with a focus on balancing efficacy and safety [24][26] - LBL-024, a promising candidate, has shown unprecedented efficacy and is expected to submit a BLA by Q3 2026 [4][6] Recent Industry Events - Merck's acquisition of Cidara for $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera highlight ongoing consolidation in the biopharmaceutical industry [6] - The report notes that the innovative drug sector is under pressure but is expected to rebound with a focus on companies with strong revenue capabilities [6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with differentiated innovation pipelines and strong revenue capabilities, including specific biopharma and pharma leaders [6] - Suggested companies for investment include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and I-MAB, among others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, with lithium salt plants actively mining [2] - The short-term outlook for lithium shows a continued increase in both supply and demand, while long-term projections indicate that energy storage will become a major growth driver for lithium [2] - In the precious metals sector, the report notes a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, while global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold [11] - For industrial metals, the report indicates that copper prices have a solid support at the bottom, with expectations of price increases driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong demand from the new energy sector [12][13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report discusses the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, which limits the price increase of gold. However, long-term value remains intact due to geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [11] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to a tightening supply and strong demand from the new energy sector. The report notes a recent accident in a Congolese copper mine that has raised supply concerns [12][13] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a potential for increases in the long term due to supply constraints and strong demand [16] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with strong production from lithium salt plants. The report anticipates a continued high demand for lithium, particularly in energy storage applications [2][17] - Key companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [18] Other Minor Metals - The report notes a stable market for antimony, with a significant increase in exports in October. The outlook for antimony prices remains stable [19][21] - Other minor metals such as tungsten and molybdenum are also highlighted, with specific companies recommended for investment [21]

- **Pring Cycle and its construction** - **Model Name**: Pring Cycle - **Construction Idea**: The Pring Cycle divides the economy and market into six stages based on the rotation performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities, helping investors adapt to different economic environments [13][16][17] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Stage Division**: - Stage 1: Recovery Early Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks slightly rise, commodities remain flat - Stage 2: Recovery Acceleration - Stocks lead, bonds weaken - Stage 3: Expansion Peak - Commodities start rising, stock growth slows, bonds decline - Stage 4: Overheat Phase - Commodities perform best, stocks decline, bonds remain flat or slightly drop - Stage 5: Growth Slowdown - Bonds improve, stocks and commodities weaken - Stage 6: Recession Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks rebound slightly, commodities perform worst [16][17][18] 2. Historical validation of Pring Cycle stages and their corresponding market performances [18] - **Evaluation**: Pring Cycle provides forward-looking insights by extracting "implied economic expectations" from market variables like prices, interest rates, and commodities, reflecting the broad economic direction [47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS) and its construction** - **Factor Name**: Trend Score (TS) - **Construction Idea**: TS is built using monthly macroeconomic data to reflect real economic activities, corporate profits, and liquidity trends, offering a stable and cross-industry consistent confirmation signal [47] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Factor Selection**: Core macro factors include PMI New Orders, PPI YoY/MoM, M1 YoY, and M2 YoY, representing demand, profitability, and liquidity [26][29][30] 2. **Standardization**: Apply 12-month rolling Z-score to each factor for comparability [33] 3. **Weighted Aggregation**: Combine Z-scores using normalized weights to derive monthly raw TS [33] 4. **EWMA Smoothing**: Apply EWMA (α=0.5) to stabilize TS and clarify trend segments [33] 5. **Anti-Jump Rule**: Use 60-period rolling distribution with dual thresholds (35/65 outer, 45/55 inner) to classify TS into "Cautious/Neutral/Positive" states, ensuring stable macro state transitions [34] 6. **Practical Application**: Extend monthly TS to daily frequency with a 15-day lag for real-time use [33] - **Evaluation**: TS complements Pring Cycle by providing confirmation signals from the fundamental side, enhancing reliability and cross-industry consistency [47] - **Backtesting Results for Models and Factors** - **Pring Cycle**: Historical validation shows that recovery and positive macro signals yield the strongest positive returns across industries, with recovery > overheat > recession in certainty [45][47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS)**: Positive TS signals outperform cautious and neutral states, with clear positive effects on market returns [45][47] - **Combined Strategy**: The Pring Cycle and TS framework consistently outperform benchmarks like CSI 300 in most years, with stable long-term excess returns and controlled drawdowns [56][59] - **Performance Metrics for Macro States** - **CSI 300**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.24%, Recession -0.08%, Overheat 0.50% - Neutral: Recovery 0.23%, Recession -2.50%, Overheat 6.21% - Positive: Recovery 2.74%, Recession 0.34%, Overheat 1.29% [41] - **CSI 2000**: - Cautious: Recovery 4.42%, Recession -1.06%, Overheat -0.16% - Neutral: Recovery 2.85%, Recession -0.54%, Overheat -3.76% - Positive: Recovery 3.14%, Recession 0.37%, Overheat 1.77% [42] - **Growth Enterprise Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 3.69%, Recession -0.67%, Overheat -2.90% - Neutral: Recovery -0.97%, Recession -1.64%, Overheat 1.62% - Positive: Recovery 4.31%, Recession 2.95%, Overheat 0.51% [43] - **Low Volatility Dividend Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.13%, Recession 0.76%, Overheat 0.60% - Neutral: Recovery -0.69%, Recession -3.12%, Overheat 8.05% - Positive: Recovery 1.51%, Recession 1.42%, Overheat 1.86% [44] - **Sector Performance under Macro States** - **Positive-Recovery**: Sectors like New Energy, Basic Chemicals, Consumer Services, and Growth Enterprise Index show strong returns [60][62] - **Positive-Overheat**: Sectors like Electronics, Basic Chemicals, Electric Equipment, and Nonferrous Metals exhibit sustained performance, shifting towards cyclical sectors [63][64] - **Risk-Adjusted Returns**: Manufacturing chains (e.g., Chemicals, Nonferrous Metals) maintain mid-to-high rankings across all macro states, while defensive sectors (e.g., Food & Beverage, Banks) dominate during downturns [64][66] - **Strategy Effectiveness** - The combined Pring Cycle and TS framework systematically captures trends and filters noise, demonstrating long-term executability and adaptability to macroeconomic changes [56][59]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [15] Core Insights - The domestic humanoid robot industry is entering a phase of large-scale development, with eight companies, including UBTECH and ZhiYuan Robotics, securing orders exceeding 100 million yuan or over 1,000 units, totaling 2.4 billion yuan in orders [3] - The price threshold for humanoid robots is continuously decreasing, driven by domestic manufacturers' self-research on core components and increased localization rates, leading to significant cost reductions [4] - The humanoid robot market in China is expected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, as sales are projected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5] Summary by Sections Orders and Market Demand - Major companies are experiencing an explosion in orders, with applications across various scenarios such as industrial, cultural tourism, and logistics, and some firms have already set delivery timelines for 2026 [3] Cost Reduction and Supply Chain Maturity - The price of humanoid robots has significantly decreased, with models like Yushu Technology's R1 priced at 39,900 yuan and others dropping to as low as 9,998 yuan, indicating a maturing supply chain in China [4] Future Market Potential - The demand for humanoid robots in industrial and commercial settings is projected to exceed 3.8 million units by 2030, with the market size potentially reaching over 100 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with October's PPI year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, and the lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom. The report anticipates further supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is viewed as being in a golden era due to energy transformation, with limited supply elasticity and increasing extraction difficulties. The report suggests that coal's status as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and coal prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Market Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal closing price is 834 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in prices from Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi [3][29] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.508 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 13,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [3][37] - The inventory index for thermal coal is 188.8, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.6 [3][37] 2. Coking Coal - As of November 21, 2025, the price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1780 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 CNY/ton [4][66] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 758,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [4][66] - The coking coal inventory has increased by 20.9 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 43.2% [4][66] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly increased to 805,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1% [37][39] - The operating rates for methanol and urea are at 88.8% and 83.9%, respectively, indicating a high level of activity compared to historical levels [3][39] - The report highlights that coal supply is expected to remain tight due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also recommended, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal-electricity integration models to mitigate cyclical fluctuations, recommending companies like Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Insights - The company, Yuanbao, is a leading technology-driven online insurance distribution and service platform in China, focusing on personal life and health insurance products. It leverages big data and AI technology to provide a comprehensive insurance service cycle, including personalized recommendations, convenient underwriting, policy management, intelligent claims, and after-sales support [3][14]. - Yuanbao has achieved rapid growth and profitability within three years of establishment, establishing a strong foundation for continued leadership in the online insurance market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yuanbao is recognized as a pioneer in internet insurance technology in China, holding national insurance brokerage and agency licenses. The company aims to make insurance more accessible through its technology-driven platform [14]. - The actual controller of the company is Rui Fang, who has extensive experience in financial technology and e-commerce [16]. - The main business model involves online distribution and full-cycle service of personal life and health insurance products, with a focus on short-term insurance [22]. Company Highlights - The company has built a robust competitive moat through its proprietary "Full Consumer Service Cycle Engine," which integrates media, users, and products to optimize the insurance service process [23][33]. - Yuanbao is the largest independent online insurance distributor in China, with significant market share and a strong growth trajectory [39]. - The online insurance distribution market in China has substantial growth potential, with online insurance sales penetration expected to rise significantly by 2028 [40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 47.23 billion, 65.64 billion, and 87.96 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 13.42 billion, 20.94 billion, and 31.30 billion RMB [4][55]. - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue growth rates of 42%, 37%, and 32% for 2025-2027 [49]. - The report uses a relative valuation method, indicating that the company's PE ratio for 2025 is significantly lower than the average of comparable companies, suggesting a potential undervaluation [4][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the chemical sector [5]. Core Insights - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is expected to create a leading global paint company with annual revenues of $17 billion (approximately 120.9 billion RMB) [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties on imported propanol from the U.S., with rates ranging from 254.4% to 267.4% [3]. - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention, including Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Shares, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is highlighted for its resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with suggested companies including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Shares [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the chemical industry benefiting from economic recovery and demand resurgence, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the ChiNext Index by 6.15%, and the CSI 300 by 3.77%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropped by 8.24% [14]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector were rubber additives (1.75%), potassium fertilizer (-1.21%), tires (-2.84%), modified plastics (-4.32%), and membrane materials (-5.19%) [17]. Major Industry Dynamics - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is set to create a company with a business scope covering various paint solutions and an expected annual revenue of $17 billion [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures on U.S. propanol will continue, affecting pricing and supply dynamics in the market [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its competitive domestic enterprises, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is noted for its tightening supply-demand balance, with several companies recommended for attention [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical industry that are likely to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4].