华福证券 投资要点： 本周高频数据 截至 2024 年 12 月 27 日，根据中国水泥网数据显示，全国散装 P.O42.5 水泥市场均价为 412.7 元/吨，环比上周下降 0.5%，较上月同比下降 1.5%， 较去年同比增长 14.0%。分地区来看，本周华北/东北/华东/中南/西南/西北 地区市场均价分别为 377.6 元/吨、484.3 元/吨、393.6 元/吨、400.2 元/吨、 418.0 元/吨、437.3 元/吨，较上周环比分别下降 0.3%、增长 0.0%、增长 0.0%、 下降 1.1%、下降 1.1%、下降 0.3%。 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资建议 我们认为，利率下行有利购房意愿修复，收储及城改货币化有助于购 房能力修复，购房意愿及能力预期的边际修复预计推动房地产市场基本面 企稳的概率增加，亦有望推动地产后周期需求的修复及产业链公司信用风 险缓释。与 22 年年底相比，本轮建材板块基本面进一步恶化的空间不大（地 产销售的量价位在更低位，头部企业对大 B 渠道的依赖度更低），而估值 分位亦低于彼时低点，我们判断板块基本面与估值均有望进一步修复。投 资标的方面，建议关注 3 条主线：1 ...

Group 1: Healing Economy Market Insights - The healing economy market in China is substantial, with an estimated total market size reaching 10 trillion RMB, encompassing various sectors such as culture, tourism, and hospitality [9][11]. - In 2023, over 830 million urban residents are estimated to require healing services, with 73.6% of urban residents experiencing sub-healthy psychological states [11][9]. - The attendance at healing expos has increased, indicating a growing acceptance and interest in healing services among users, with the second expo seeing a rise in visitors to 28,701 from 19,474 in the first expo [11][39]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical index showed negative returns across all six sub-sectors, indicating a general underperformance in the market [1]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the pharmaceutical industry included blood products (+0.37%) and medical devices (-0.08%), while medical consumables saw a decline of -1.04% [14]. - The government is enhancing support for pharmaceutical innovation, with a focus on high-quality development and regulatory reforms to boost the industry [15][18]. Group 3: Policy Support for Innovation - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, with 113 new drugs approved during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a market size of 100 billion RMB [18]. - Recent government meetings emphasized the need for a comprehensive policy framework to support the innovation of drugs and medical devices, including expedited approval processes and financial backing [15][28]. - There is a notable trend of mergers and acquisitions in the innovative drug sector, driven by supportive government policies aimed at industry consolidation [32].

海外市场周观察（1223-1229） ➢ 本周美国处于关键数据真空期，但周五美股却出现较大调整。周五美国 三大股指集体受挫，标普500指数跌1.11%，道指跌0.77%，终结日线五连 涨，纳指跌1.49%，失守20000点，此外，科技七巨头全线下跌，特斯拉一度 重挫超6%，英伟达下跌2%。一方面是由于本周美股出现的资金抛售潮，使 市场出现短期波动，据美国银行数据显示，本周美股出现约350亿美元的资 金外流，是自2022年12月以来的最高单周资金流出；另一方面，在近期市场 预期美联储2025年降息次数减少的情况下，本周10Y国债收益率上行10BP至 4.62%，创7个月以来新高，使股市承压。当前市场预期2025年首次降息时点 已从明年3月后移至明年5月，通胀和劳动力市场的韧性使美联储考虑放缓降 息步伐，加之特朗普1月上台后通胀和货币政策不确定性，我们仍然认为若美 联储能够保持政策独立性且在特朗普不更换联储主席的情况下，美联储降息 可能会更加谨慎。此外，值得关注的是，除了七名美联储理事和纽约联储主 席威廉姆斯外，2025年其余4名FOMC票委将调整为芝加哥联储主席古尔斯 比、波士顿联储主席柯林斯、圣路易斯联储主席 ...

汽车 2024 年 12 月 30 日 1、近期行情： 本周申万汽车指数上涨 0.7%、申万一级行业排名 7/31 位。 强于大市（维持评级） | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | 分析师： 卢宇峰 lyf30531@hfzq.com.cn | (S0210524050001) | | 相关报告 | | | 1 、周观点（ 1216-1220 值关注整车—— 2024.12.22 | ）：弹性关注机器人，价 | | 2 、宁德时代启动巧克力换电生态 Day 2024 —— 2024.12.22 | 蔚来举办 NIO | | 3 、周观点（ 1209-1213 | ）：低空板块技术面调整 | 行业定期报告 | 汽车 4、投资策略： 优选整车龙头和布局机器人的汽零标的。 1、近期行情： 1）12 月 23 日，宇树发布 B2-W 机器狗最新视频，已经能够在野外山坡、 森林、水里面行走、弹跳自如，且能承载成年男子体重，引起国内外广泛 关注。 ...

投资要点： 3、中国加速全球化或推动人民币长期进入升值趋势，中期关注美 国逆全球化政策兑现和美股风险释放加速人民币升值的时间窗口。 证 券 研 究 报 告 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 图表 1:11月工业企业利润增速延续修复 分产业链来看,下游消费利润改善较为明显。继中游利润改善后，11月下游利 润改善明显。工业企业利润增速改善较为明显的行业集中在下游消费，农副产品、 食品制造、纺织量增价稳;上游原材料加工多数行业价格增速改善;中游制造业多 数行业价稳量增。 工业增加值(吉月网比,8) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|---------------------------------|---------|---------|--------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------- ...

11月,我国进口锑矿 5,723吨,环比+3,108吨/+118.8%,同比+4,500吨/+368%。 1-11月，我国累计进口锑矿 49,117吨，同比+16,455吨/+50.4%。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------------------------|-------| | 图表 1: 鲜矿进口情况 | | | | | | 图表 2: 鲜矿进口价格情况 | | | 60,000 | | 200% | | 8,000 | | | 200% | | 50,000 | | | | 7,000 | | | 150% | | | | 150% | | 6,000 | | | | | 40,000 | | 100% | | 5,000 | | | 100% | | 30,000 | | | | 4,000 | | | 50% | | 20,000 | | 50% | | 3,000 | | | 0% | | ...

汽车 车企纷纷入局具身智能 强于大市（维持评级） 行业定期报告 | 汽车 | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 图表 1: | 各板块周涨跌幅对比. | | 图表 2: | 各板块年涨跌幅对比. | | 图表 3: | 子板块周涨跌幅对比… | | 图表 4: | 子板块年涨跌幅对比… | | 图表 5: | 汽车行业 PE-TTM | | 图表 6: | 汽车行业 PB | | 图表 7: | PE-TTM、PB 当周估值及十年历史分位 | | 图表 8: | 行业涨跌幅前十名个股 | | 图表 9: | 行业涨跌幅后十名个股 | | | | | 图表 10: | 乘用车主要厂商 12 月周度日均零售数（单位： 辆）和增速 ...................... 6 | | 图表 11: | ...

华福证券 电子 2024 年 12 月 30 日 CES 2025 启幕在即，AI 浪潮涌动 一年内行业相对大盘走势 投资要点： AI 终端落地将成为核心主题，创新产品将密集推出。人工智能在 CES 2025 展会中将继续扮演着至关重要的角色，今年将围绕 AI 底层技术革新 的加速及 AI 应用落地场景深度探讨。本次大会众多科技硬件、智能出行等 品牌将带来 AI 加持下的创新产品，AI 手机、AIAR、AI 眼镜、AIAIoT 等 AI+产品的亮相将掀起创新浪潮，三星、LG 等品牌都已为本次展会制定了 以 AI 为中心的议程。 PC：联想将发布搭载 14 英寸"卷轴屏"的 ThinkBook Plus Gen 6 Rollable 等多款新品，华硕、ROG 等 PC 品牌也将推出新品。 汽车：围绕智能化与电动化的智能产品和全新操作系统将密集亮 相。宝马、本田、铃木汽车等公司将在现场发布智能座舱、自动驾 驶等技术和产品。其中，宝马将首发新世代超感智能座舱，涵盖了 视平线全景显示、3D 抬头显示、超感智控方向盘和向心中控四项 新技术；大陆集团将展示一款具有生物识别交互功能的智能产品。 证 券 研 究 报 告 面板 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [27] Core Viewpoints - The titanium dioxide (TiO2) price has stabilized after a decline, but the industry remains in a low cycle [26] - Demand from developing countries is expected to continue driving exports, with November exports increasing by 19.5% year-on-year [26][70] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize, which will boost demand for coatings, while other downstream sectors like plastics, paper, and automotive are showing steady growth [3] Summary by Sections 1. Titanium Dioxide and Raw Material Price Review - As of December 27, the average price of titanium dioxide in December was 14,250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 198 CNY/ton from November [26] - The average price of titanium ore decreased by 4.7% to 1,960 CNY/ton in December [38] 2. Titanium Dioxide Production Situation - November production of titanium dioxide was 275,000 tons, down 8.8% year-on-year and 5.2% month-on-month [19] - The operating rate as of December 26 was 65.45%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points from the end of November [19] 3. Import and Export Situation - November exports of titanium dioxide reached 149,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with cumulative exports from January to November at 1.743 million tons, up 16.3% year-on-year [70] - Major export markets in November included India (20%), Vietnam (5%), Turkey (5%), UAE (5%), and South Korea (5%) [2][75] 4. Downstream Demand Tracking - The downstream demand for titanium dioxide is primarily from coatings (58%), plastics (22%), paper (7%), and inks (4%) [3] - The real estate sector's recovery is expected to enhance demand for coatings, while other sectors like plastics and automotive are also showing stable growth [3] 5. Titanium Dioxide Sector and Key Company Trends - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with titanium ore advantages, particularly Longbai Group, which has a total titanium dioxide production capacity of 850,000 tons/year using the sulfate process and 660,000 tons/year using the chloride process [26][59] - Longbai Group is expanding its upstream resources and aims to achieve an annual titanium ore production capacity of 2.48 million tons by the end of 2025 [59]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [58] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that major manufacturers of Vitamin E have announced maintenance plans, which are expected to keep prices stable at high levels [58] - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the price increases of Vitamin A and E, specifically Zhejiang Medicine and Xinhecheng, as well as Garden Bio benefiting from the price increase of Vitamin D3, and Shengda Bio and Tianxin Pharmaceutical benefiting from the price increase of folic acid [58] Summary by Sections 1. Vitamin and Raw Material Price Overview - Vitamin A price as of December 27 is 137.5 CNY/kg, down 14.6% from 161 CNY/kg at the end of last month [3][58] - Vitamin E price as of December 27 is 142.5 CNY/kg, down 3.4% from 147.5 CNY/kg at the end of last month [58] - Vitamin D3 price as of December 27 is 265 CNY/kg, up 1.9% from 260 CNY/kg at the end of last month [13][58] - Folic acid price as of December 27 is 352.5 CNY/kg, up 2.2% from 345 CNY/kg at the end of last month [95] 2. Export Situation of Various Vitamins - Vitamin A export volume in November was 531.06 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 29.3% from January to November [24] - Vitamin B3 or B5 export volume in November was 2,308.34 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 21.5% from January to October [25] - Vitamin C export volume in November was 19,516.64 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.1% from January to November [26] 3. Production Facility Status - Xinhecheng's Vitamin A production is operating normally with no maintenance plans [11] - Zhejiang Medicine's Changhai Biological subsidiary plans to conduct maintenance from mid-January 2025 for 4-5 weeks [45][90] - DSM-Firmenich announced that its joint venture with China Energy will undergo temporary maintenance from January to February 2025, with another closure planned for June 2025, each lasting about 2 weeks [2][90] 4. Downstream Demand Tracking - As of December 27, the average price of white feather broilers in major production areas is 7.61 CNY/kg, down 0.09 CNY/kg from the end of last month, with breeding profits at -1.22 CNY per bird, an increase of 0.36 CNY per bird from the end of last month [68]