固收+优选组合今年以来跑赢二级债基指数 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 03 日 金 融 工 程 固收+基金上调成长暴露，债基优选组合持续贡献超额 ——固收+及纯债基金月度跟踪（2025 年 12 月） 投资要点： 各类型固收+产品收益表现均有回落 金 今年以来，股票型和混合型固收+净值波动较大，本月各类固收+ 产品收益均有回落。11 月混合型、股票型和转债型固收+分别下跌 0.5%、0.42%、0.16%。 固收+基金上调成长配置 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 将固收+基金净值对各类资产的风格纯因子收益回归，得到固收+ 基金在各类资产上的风险暴露。对比本月与上月的债券风险因子暴露， 我们发现固收+基金整体在债券久期配置上相对持平，在信用策略上更 加谨慎。在股票资产的风险因子暴露测算显示，固收+基金在成长风格 上的暴露有所增配，略微增加了市值因子的风格暴露，股票仓位基本 持平。 我们通过胜率、赔率等多个维度每季度优选 10 只基金等权配置， 构建固收+基金优选组合。从业绩表现来看，今年以来优选组合相对二 级债基指数有一定超额，今年以来跑赢二级债基指数 0.28%。 不同久期类型纯债基金业绩分化 中长期纯债型基 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that various quantitative funds outperformed their benchmarks in November 2025, with active quantitative funds tracking the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices achieving average excess returns of 0.5% and 2.1% respectively [2][26] - Among industry-themed funds, those tracking the digital economy, Hang Seng A-share specialized new enterprises index, and the emerging index ranked highest in excess returns [2][37] - Smart beta funds tracking the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen high dividend index achieved the highest excess returns for the month [2][38] Group 2 - The report highlights that broad-based active quantitative funds tracking 27 indices had average excess returns of 0.6% and 0.3% for the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices respectively in November 2025 [3][42] - Industry-themed funds focusing on the pharmaceutical sector, chip industry, and Chinese semiconductor chip index ranked highest in excess returns among index-enhanced funds [3][54] - The report notes that hedge quantitative funds had an average absolute return of 0.31% in November 2025, with lower net asset value volatility compared to the year-to-date average [4][27] Group 3 - The report categorizes quantitative funds into three types: active quantitative funds, index-enhanced quantitative funds, and hedge quantitative funds, each serving different trading needs [9][12] - Active quantitative funds are further divided into those tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, other broad indices, industry themes, and smart beta strategies [12][18] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various funds, including absolute and excess returns, volatility, and maximum drawdown for November 2025 [17][49]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a multi-strategy stock selection approach, highlighting the importance of value and quality styles in the current market environment [1][2] - In December 2025, the weight allocation for the quality stock selection strategy is the highest at approximately 38.84%, while the growth stock selection strategy has the lowest allocation at about 7.64% [2][19] - The multi-strategy stock selection strategy recorded an absolute return of -3.72% in November, with a relative excess return of -1.48% compared to the CSI All Share Index [2][27] Group 2 - The "High BETA" stock selection strategy has the highest weight allocation in large-cap value stocks at 50%, while the allocation for small-cap value stocks is the lowest at 14.17% [4][46] - In November, the "High BETA" strategy achieved an absolute return of -0.76% and a relative excess return of -1.56% compared to the CSI All Share Index [4][16] - The report indicates that the "High BETA" strategy's performance is closely monitored, with adjustments made based on market conditions [3][46] Group 3 - The "Dividend+" preferred stock strategy achieved an absolute return of 1.99% in November, with a relative excess return of 4.38% compared to the CSI All Share Index [5][18] - This strategy includes a total of 30 selected stocks, with an average market capitalization of 658.36 billion, primarily concentrated in the banking and light manufacturing sectors [5][18] - The report highlights the strong performance of the "Dividend+" strategy relative to its benchmarks, indicating its effectiveness in the current market [5][18] Group 4 - The moving average trend strategy recorded an absolute return of 1.81% in November, with a relative excess return of 4.19% compared to the CSI All Share Index [6][18] - Year-to-date, this strategy has achieved an absolute return of 22.14% and a relative excess return of 1.22% [6][18] - The strategy's holdings are primarily in the oil, petrochemical, and telecommunications sectors, indicating a focus on specific industries [6][18] Group 5 - The sentiment price-volume strategy's top 50 portfolio had an absolute return of -2.52% in November, with a relative excess return of -0.25% compared to the CSI All Share Index [6][16] - The top 100 portfolio recorded an absolute return of -4.41%, with a relative excess return of -2.18% [6][16] - This strategy's holdings are mainly in the electronics, machinery, and automotive sectors, reflecting its targeted investment approach [6][16] Group 6 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board strategy achieved an absolute return of -0.75% in November, with a relative excess return of 5.86% compared to the CSI All Share Index [7][16] - Year-to-date, this strategy has recorded an impressive absolute return of 75.29% and a relative excess return of 30.62% [7][16] - The strategy's holdings are primarily concentrated in the electronics industry, showcasing its focus on high-growth sectors [7][16]

Market Performance - In November 2025, the average return of actively managed equity funds was -2.5%, with over 75% of funds reporting negative returns, and the interquartile range of returns narrowed to 3.1% [9][30] - Value funds performed the best among non-industry equity funds, with a median return of 0.0%. Growth theme funds showed significant divergence, with the best performing fund returning 8.2% and the worst returning -9.4% [25][30] - Industry theme funds had average performance across various sectors, with notable returns from the chemical sector ETF at 2.7% and the technology fund "Yongying Technology Smart Selection A" at 191.7% [28][30] Equity Fund Multi-Strategy Overview - A total of 3733 actively managed equity funds were identified, meeting specific criteria for classification [33] - The average goodness of fit for public funds relative to a single index was 0.7397 in November, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [34] - The distribution of equity fund strategies showed a slowdown in fund reallocation, with the largest inflows into the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and cyclical sectors [38] High-Performance Fund Monthly Tracking - High-rated funds demonstrated excellent overall performance and robust investment management capabilities, showing good alpha persistence in both short-term and long-term performance [52] - New funds, defined as those with high scores and managers with less than three years of experience, totaled 15 this month, primarily targeting the digital economy [59] - Ten funds experienced rating upgrades this month, reflecting significant performance improvements and management optimization [61]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a K-shaped consumption trend, emphasizing the importance of high-end and cost-effective products in the beauty sector. Online sales in the beauty industry for the first ten months of 2025 reached approximately 217.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [2][27] - The retail and trendy toy sectors are expected to see a recovery in high-end department store traffic due to the K-shaped consumption trend and the upcoming consumption peak season [3] - The tourism sector is focusing on Hainan's duty-free and tourism company mergers and acquisitions, with domestic travel increasing by 18.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][42] - The gold and jewelry sector is showing resilience in consumer demand despite tax policy changes, with major brands maintaining strong sales growth [6][49] - The restaurant industry is witnessing a divide, with growth potential in specific segments, particularly for leading brands like Yum China and Xiaocaiyuan [6][51] Summary by Sections Trendy Toys - Online sales in the trendy toy sector for the first ten months of 2025 reached approximately 664.43 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 65% [4][13] Beauty - Online sales in the beauty sector for the first ten months of 2025 reached approximately 217.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [2][27] Duty-Free and Tourism - The new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan is expected to stimulate consumer spending, with a significant increase in shopping amounts and visitor numbers [34][39] - Domestic travel numbers reached 4.998 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [42] Gold and Jewelry - Following the new tax policy, the price of gold jewelry has increased, but consumer demand remains strong, with major brands reporting significant sales growth [6][49] Restaurant - The restaurant sector is seeing a split, with growth in specific segments. Yum China's same-store sales improved by 1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and Xiaocaiyuan is expanding rapidly [6][51][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company is projected to experience fluctuations in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a forecasted revenue of 10.49 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 9.84 billion yuan in 2025, and then recovering to 11.09 billion yuan by 2027 [2][5]. - The net profit is expected to decline to 1.06 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 1.25 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -22% in 2025 and 7% in 2027 [2][5]. - The company is recognized as a leading player in the customized home furnishings industry, with a multi-brand, full-category, and full-channel strategy that emphasizes shareholder returns, projecting a dividend yield of approximately 6% based on current profit forecasts [5]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11.67 billion yuan in 2023, 10.49 billion yuan in 2024, 9.84 billion yuan in 2025, 10.43 billion yuan in 2026, and 11.09 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 4%, -10%, -6%, 6%, and 6% respectively [2]. - Net profit estimates are 1.26 billion yuan for 2023, 1.37 billion yuan for 2024, 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, 1.17 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.25 billion yuan for 2027, with growth rates of 19%, 9%, -22%, 10%, and 7% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.31 yuan in 2023, 1.42 yuan in 2024, 1.10 yuan in 2025, 1.22 yuan in 2026, and 1.30 yuan in 2027 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10.7 in 2023, 9.8 in 2024, 12.6 in 2025, 11.5 in 2026, and 10.7 in 2027 [2]. Shareholder Dynamics - The report highlights a significant equity transfer involving the company's controlling shareholders, with a total of 103,711,180 shares being transferred at a price of 18.00 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.87 billion yuan [5]. - Following this transfer, the new shareholder, Ningbo Yingfeng Ruihe Investment Management Co., Ltd., will hold 12.7% of the company's total shares, indicating confidence in the company's long-term investment value [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [5][72]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance in the pig farming sector continues, leading to downward pressure on pig prices. As of November 28, the pig price was 11.20 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, up 0.41 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, calf prices have rebounded, and the long-term trend for beef prices is upward. As of November 28, the price for fattened bulls was 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, while calf prices rose to 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows [3][33]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks, with prices slightly adjusting. As of November 28, the price for white feather broilers was 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, while broiler chick prices were 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY [4][40]. - The agricultural products sector, particularly soybean meal, is seeing price fluctuations. As of November 28, the spot price for soybean meal was 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels [4][55]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The supply-demand imbalance persists, leading to a decrease in pig prices. The average price on November 28 was 11.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was -147.99 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -248.82 CNY/head, reflecting ongoing losses in the sector [10]. Beef Industry - Calf prices have shown signs of recovery, with the price for fattened bulls at 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, and calf prices at 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows, leading to a potential upward trend in beef prices in the coming years [3][33]. Poultry Sector - The enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks has decreased, with broiler prices at 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, and broiler chick prices at 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY. The ongoing avian influenza outbreak may lead to a contraction in upstream production capacity [4][40][43]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a spot price of 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels and external factors affecting supply [4][55].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment, leading to a strong performance in U.S. stocks and an increase in gold prices [2][8] - The report highlights that the U.S. retail sales for September increased by 0.2%, which was below the market expectation of 0.4% and the previous value of 0.6% [8] - The report notes that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has increased, with several Federal Reserve officials expressing support for such a move due to concerns about the labor market [9][10] Group 2 - In terms of asset prices, major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with COMEX silver rising by 12.88% and NYMEX platinum by 10.52%, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.71% [28][30] - The report states that the Nasdaq Composite Index had the highest increase among global equity markets, rising by 4.91%, followed by the S&P 500 at 3.73% and the Shenzhen Component Index at 3.56% [33][39] - The materials sector in the U.S. stock market saw the largest gain of 6.43%, while the healthcare sector in Hong Kong also performed well with a 4.94% increase [39] Group 3 - The report indicates that the global commodity market experienced mixed results, with COMEX silver showing the largest gain at 12.88% [46] - The report mentions that the 10-year government bond yields varied globally, with Japan's yield rising to 1.81% and France's yield falling to 3.41% [51][55] - The report highlights that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 [8][9]

行 业 研 究 传媒 2025 年 12 月 01 日 投资要点： 一、模型端竞争激烈：Gemini+OpenAI+Claude 三分天下 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 C 端：ChatGPT C 端领先，Gemini 借助生态优势追赶。截至 2025 年 10 月，ChatGPT 的周活跃用户数已增至 8 亿人，在 C 端保持领先地位。 相比之下，Gemini 虽然整体用户规模不及 ChatGPT，但其增长势头强劲。 据 2025 年 Q3 业绩会，Gemini 目前拥有超过 6.5 亿月活。Gemini 若进一 步深度整合 Google 搜索、Chrome 浏览器、Android 体系等生态入口， 未来在 C 端具有较大成长潜力。 B 端：Claude 引领 B 端，Gemini 基于谷歌云优势紧随其后。根据 Menlo Ventures，Claude 母公司 Anthropic 占企业端领先市场份额，占据 企业 LLM支出的 32%，领先 OpenAI的 25%和谷歌的 Gemini 平台的 20%。 2025 年 10 月 16 日，Google 云推出 Gemini Enterprise，与 Box、Op ...

Group 1: PMI Performance - The national manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still 0.9 percentage points below the median of the past five years[3] - The new orders index rose to 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in demand[5] - The production index reached 50.0%, increasing by 0.3 percentage points, returning to the growth threshold[5] Group 2: Export and Demand Improvement - The new export orders index significantly rebounded to 47.6%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month, reflecting resilience in exports[5] - Tariff reductions from recent US-China trade talks are expected to provide a short-term boost to export demand, similar to previous tariff easing events[4] - The manufacturing purchase price index rose to 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating upward pressure on PPI[19] Group 3: Construction and Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction industry business activity index increased to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, although it remains below the growth threshold[6] - The construction new orders index rose to 46.1%, marking the second highest level this year[6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in service sector activity[25] Group 4: Risks and Economic Outlook - Risks include unexpected changes in fiscal and monetary policy, macroeconomic data, and external factors such as tariffs[7] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to accelerate in the fourth quarter as a key driver for achieving growth targets[4]