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钛白粉12月月报:钛白粉价格有企稳迹象,行业仍处景气低谷
华福证券· 2024-12-30 01:39
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [27] Core Viewpoints - The titanium dioxide (TiO2) price has stabilized after a decline, but the industry remains in a low cycle [26] - Demand from developing countries is expected to continue driving exports, with November exports increasing by 19.5% year-on-year [26][70] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize, which will boost demand for coatings, while other downstream sectors like plastics, paper, and automotive are showing steady growth [3] Summary by Sections 1. Titanium Dioxide and Raw Material Price Review - As of December 27, the average price of titanium dioxide in December was 14,250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 198 CNY/ton from November [26] - The average price of titanium ore decreased by 4.7% to 1,960 CNY/ton in December [38] 2. Titanium Dioxide Production Situation - November production of titanium dioxide was 275,000 tons, down 8.8% year-on-year and 5.2% month-on-month [19] - The operating rate as of December 26 was 65.45%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points from the end of November [19] 3. Import and Export Situation - November exports of titanium dioxide reached 149,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with cumulative exports from January to November at 1.743 million tons, up 16.3% year-on-year [70] - Major export markets in November included India (20%), Vietnam (5%), Turkey (5%), UAE (5%), and South Korea (5%) [2][75] 4. Downstream Demand Tracking - The downstream demand for titanium dioxide is primarily from coatings (58%), plastics (22%), paper (7%), and inks (4%) [3] - The real estate sector's recovery is expected to enhance demand for coatings, while other sectors like plastics and automotive are also showing stable growth [3] 5. Titanium Dioxide Sector and Key Company Trends - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with titanium ore advantages, particularly Longbai Group, which has a total titanium dioxide production capacity of 850,000 tons/year using the sulfate process and 660,000 tons/year using the chloride process [26][59] - Longbai Group is expanding its upstream resources and aims to achieve an annual titanium ore production capacity of 2.48 million tons by the end of 2025 [59]
维生素12月月报:VE主流厂商陆续宣布检修计划,预计价格维持高位震荡
华福证券· 2024-12-30 01:02
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [58] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that major manufacturers of Vitamin E have announced maintenance plans, which are expected to keep prices stable at high levels [58] - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the price increases of Vitamin A and E, specifically Zhejiang Medicine and Xinhecheng, as well as Garden Bio benefiting from the price increase of Vitamin D3, and Shengda Bio and Tianxin Pharmaceutical benefiting from the price increase of folic acid [58] Summary by Sections 1. Vitamin and Raw Material Price Overview - Vitamin A price as of December 27 is 137.5 CNY/kg, down 14.6% from 161 CNY/kg at the end of last month [3][58] - Vitamin E price as of December 27 is 142.5 CNY/kg, down 3.4% from 147.5 CNY/kg at the end of last month [58] - Vitamin D3 price as of December 27 is 265 CNY/kg, up 1.9% from 260 CNY/kg at the end of last month [13][58] - Folic acid price as of December 27 is 352.5 CNY/kg, up 2.2% from 345 CNY/kg at the end of last month [95] 2. Export Situation of Various Vitamins - Vitamin A export volume in November was 531.06 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 29.3% from January to November [24] - Vitamin B3 or B5 export volume in November was 2,308.34 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 21.5% from January to October [25] - Vitamin C export volume in November was 19,516.64 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.1% from January to November [26] 3. Production Facility Status - Xinhecheng's Vitamin A production is operating normally with no maintenance plans [11] - Zhejiang Medicine's Changhai Biological subsidiary plans to conduct maintenance from mid-January 2025 for 4-5 weeks [45][90] - DSM-Firmenich announced that its joint venture with China Energy will undergo temporary maintenance from January to February 2025, with another closure planned for June 2025, each lasting about 2 weeks [2][90] 4. Downstream Demand Tracking - As of December 27, the average price of white feather broilers in major production areas is 7.61 CNY/kg, down 0.09 CNY/kg from the end of last month, with breeding profits at -1.22 CNY per bird, an increase of 0.36 CNY per bird from the end of last month [68]
有色金属行业周报:CSPT小组敲定25年Q1铜精矿加工费TC为25美金,矿端偏紧逻辑继续演绎
华福证券· 2024-12-30 00:27
日 强于大市(维持评级) 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 2022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-12 有色金属(申万) 沪深300 【华福有色】20241222 周报:美 12 月点阵图中值 显示降息或放缓,多家矿企确定 2025 年铜精矿长 单 TC 【华福有色】20241215 周报:美 11 月通胀符合预 期增加降息概率,欧洲央行降息 25 个基点 【华福有色】20241201 周报:宏观扰动加剧波 动,供需紧缺支撑氧化铝价格 【华福有色】20241124 周报:地缘局势再度紧 张,周内金价明显走强 【华福有色】20241111 周报:美通胀符合市场预 期,降息交易提振价格走强 【华福有色】20241104 周报:美大选前市场预期 摇摆,货币宽松下长期向上趋势不改 行业定期研究|有色金属 诚信专业 发现价值 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 图表 24: 金属&材料价格跟踪(截至周五中午 12点) . 行业定期研究|有色金属 行业:美国十年 TIPS 国债+2.2 ...
煤炭行业定期报告:煤价阶段性企稳,关注高股息标的提估值机会
华福证券· 2024-12-30 00:26
华福证券 投资要点: 截至 12 月 27 日,京唐港主焦煤库提价 1520 元/吨,环比-90 元/ 吨(-5.6%),产地价格相对平稳。当前处开工淡季,铁水产量环比微 跌,样本钢厂煤焦库存小涨,随着一揽子政策陆续落地,焦煤价格无 需悲观。本周焦炭价格小跌、螺纹钢价格持平,截至 12 月 27 日,山 西临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1650 元/吨,环比-50 元/吨(-2.9%),螺纹 钢现货价格 3350 元,环比持平,焦炭第五轮提降落地,大型焦化开工 率微涨,截至 12 月 27 日,焦化厂产能(>200 万吨)开工率 78.1%, 周环比+0.4pct。 核心观点 风险提示 一年内行业相对大盘走势 正文目录 煤炭 煤价阶段性企稳,关注高股息标的提估值机会 截至 2024 年 12 月 27 日,秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 758 元/吨, 周环比-9 元/吨(-1.2%),连续三天报价持平,已现企稳迹象。产地价 格小跌,晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 83.3%,周环比-0.4pct。本周电厂日 耗微跌,电厂库存微涨、港口库存小跌、煤企库存小涨;非电方面, 甲醇、尿素开工率小跌,仍处于历史同期偏高水平,截至 ...
公用事业周报:多地25年电力交易方案出台推进市场化进程,特许经营使用者付费大势所趋
华福证券· 2024-12-29 13:54
华福证券 北 公用事业 2024 年 12 月 29 日 强于大市(维持评级) 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师: 严家源(S0210524050013) yjy30561@hfzq.com.cn 分析师: 尚硕(S0210524050023) ss30574@hfzq.com.cn 联系人: 闫燕燕(S0210123070115) yyy30238@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、周报(12.16-12.20):长协交易、海风竞配, 江苏好戏连台——2024.12.22 2、周报(12.9-12.13):二批次农村能源革命试 点公布,分布式光伏开发有望提速,节水减排促 进降碳——2024.12.14 3、周报(12.02-06):新型经营主体助力构建新 型 电力系统,世界在役最大火电厂致力于打造能源 超市——2024.12.08 投资要点: 行情回顾:12 月 23 日-12 月 27 日,电力板块上涨 0.38%,燃气板块上涨 1.77%,水务板块上涨 0.52%,环保板块下跌 1.58%,同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.90%。 东南电厂电价降幅较多,北方电厂电价较为坚挺:在 24、25 ...
锡行业月报(2024.11)锡矿趋紧,供需回暖库存下降,锡价有支撑
华福证券· 2024-12-29 13:53
Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" (Stronger than the market) for the next 6-12 months, indicating that the industry's overall return is expected to be higher than the market benchmark by more than 5% [31] Core Views - Long-term optimism for tin prices due to weak supply growth and strong demand from emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [7] - Short-term support for tin prices from inventory declines and pre-holiday restocking demand [29] - Key companies to watch: Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver-Tin [7][29] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Tin concentrate imports in November were 12,136 tons, down 19.2% month-on-month and 56.5% year-on-year [39] - Cumulative tin concentrate imports from January to November were 150,840 tons, down 35.1% year-on-year [39] - Refined tin production in November was 16,990 tons, up 9.2% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month [52] - Cumulative refined tin production from January to November was 167,644 tons, up 9.4% year-on-year [52] Demand - Apparent tin consumption in November was 19,100 tons, up 4.1% month-on-month but down 4.2% year-on-year [20] - Cumulative apparent tin consumption from January to November was 152,100 tons, down 10.8% year-on-year [20] - Strong demand from downstream sectors: - Integrated circuit production in November was 3.76 billion units, up 4.86% month-on-month and 12.37% year-on-year [27] - New energy vehicle production in November was 1.574 million units, up 10.2% month-on-month and 51.1% year-on-year [27] - Solar cell production in November was 68.14 GW, up 2.5% month-on-month and 10.9% year-on-year [27] Inventory and Price Trends - Domestic tin ingot social inventory as of December 20 was 7,805 tons, with global visible tin inventory at 12,565 tons [28] - Domestic social inventory has decreased by 54.9% since June [28] - Tin prices are supported by inventory declines and improving supply-demand dynamics [28] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies: Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver-Tin [7][29] - These companies are expected to benefit from the favorable supply-demand dynamics and rising tin prices [7][29]
电力设备及新能源行业周报:产业周跟踪,1月锂电排产淡季不淡,新增海上风电实施“单30”
华福证券· 2024-12-29 13:37
epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 电力设备及新能源行业周报 ➢ 锂电板块核心观点:海外国内竞速固态电池开发,锂电1月淡季不淡 维持高景气。1)海外国内固态电池量产竞速;2)宁德时代发布磐石底 盘,安全性能大幅提升;3)锂电排产淡季不淡,行业景气度维持高水 平。 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 电力设备及新能源 2024 年 12 月 29 日 风电实施"单 30 " ➢ 光伏板块核心观点:硅料龙头齐发减产公告,硅料/硅片/电池片周价 格小幅上涨。12月24日,硅料两大龙头通威股份/大全能源均公告对高纯 多晶硅产线进行阶段性有序减产控产,表明执行行业自律的决心。我们认 ➢ 风电板块核心观点:海风"单30"政策正式落地,建议重视当下的布 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_C hart 一年内行业相对大盘走势 执业证书编号:S0210522050005 邮箱: dw3787@hfzq.com.cn ➢ 储能板块核心观点:国内11月储能装机同环比高增,11月美国大储新 增装机1.61GWh。1)国内储能装机:国内11月新增新型储能项目规模 8.82GWh ...
基础化工行业新材料周报:国家发改委成立低空经济发展司,住友化学出售在华LCD偏光片业务
华福证券· 2024-12-29 12:15
华福证券 投资要点: 强于大市(维持评级) 华福证券 行业定期报告 | 基础化工 风险提示 正文目录 试信专业 发现价值 整体市场行情回顾 नी 国家发改委,成立低空经济发展司。12 月 27 日,记者从国家发展改革 委官网获悉,机关司局栏目设立了低空司,全称为低空经济发展司。国家 发展改革委官网显示,低空经济发展司是负责拟订并组织实施低空经济发 展战略、中长期发展规划,提出有关政策建议,协调有关重大问题等的职 能司局。12 月 27 日,国家发展改革委官网发布了两个消息,分别是低空 经济发展司在近日开展的两项重要工作。一是低空经济发展司负责同志与 通信、导航方面有关专家进行座谈,就低空智能网联系统建设进行交流。 二是低空经济发展司负责同志与自然资源部、生态环境部等部委和有关中 央企业进行座谈,了解相关领域低空经济典型场景应用和相关基础设施建 设发展情况,并就推动低空基础设施有序规划建设进行交流。(资料来源: DT 新材料) 团队成员 分析师: 孙范彦卿(S0210524050021) sfyq30569@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 诚信专业 发现价值 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 图表目录 3 图 ...
钢铁行业周报:焦炭第五轮提降开启,冬储迎最后时刻
华福证券· 2024-12-29 12:14
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电子行业海外科技周跟踪:LightCounting乐观展望铜缆&CPO市场,GB300更多细节曝光
华福证券· 2024-12-29 10:57
电子 2024 年 12 月 29 日 投资要点: 周一美股三大指数盘初齐跌,随后由于科技股、芯片股持续走强, 力撑美股转涨并收于日高附近,纳指涨近 1%,芯片指数收涨 3.1%。 周五 10 年期美债收益率涨超 4 个基点压低股市,科技股、芯片股、 AI 概念股集体走低,拖累美股三大指数盘中齐跌超 1%,纳指跌幅最 深超 2.3%。具体来看,半导体板块中,博通周涨幅 9.49%,超微半导 体周涨幅 5.02%,英特尔周涨幅 4.00%;互联网板块中,Meta 周涨幅 2.49%,阿里巴巴周涨幅 3.38%,Carvana 周跌幅 4.17%;软件板块中, Snowflake 周跌幅 4.59%,CrowdStrike 周跌幅 2.01%,Datadog 周跌幅 2.32%。 近日光通信市场研究机构 LightCounting 对 2029 年之前的高速线 缆、CPO 市场进行了展望。高速线缆方面,预计未来 5 年销售额将增 长两倍多,到 2029 年达到 67 亿美元。并且在人工智能集群需求的推 动下,有源电缆(AEC)和有源铜缆(ACC)的市场份额将逐渐超过 无源直连铜缆(DAC)。与 DAC 相比,AE ...