Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [7][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.124 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.29% to 494 million yuan [2][4]. - The food manufacturing business showed stable growth, with revenue from food manufacturing, catering services, and other sales reaching 3.570 billion, 1.455 billion, and 55 million yuan respectively in 2024, with catering services growing by 15.24% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is expanding its presence outside Guangdong province, with significant growth in the number of provincial distributors, indicating successful pilot sales in new cities [5][6]. Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 31.72%, a decrease of 3.90 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 9.64%, down 1.59 percentage points [6]. - The company’s sales expenses, management expenses, and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue were 9.81%, 9.09%, and 1.60% respectively, showing a reduction compared to the previous year [6]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 556 million, 620 million, and 673 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [7][9].

固收定期研究 2025 年 4 月 15 日 【华福固收】不同牛熊阶段低评级信用债 表现如何 ➢ 不同牛熊阶段低评级信用债表现如何 通过复盘过去几年中五个牛市区间和五个熊市区间，可以看出以下规律: 1、 牛市阶段，低等级城投债估值收益率普遍收窄幅度最高，依次是AA>AA+>AAA。如 在2022/12/15至2023/6/14这一区间，城投3年AAA、城投3年 AA+、城投3年AA的收益率 收窄幅度分别为81BP、95BP和104BP，而同期3年国债收益率收窄幅度为30BP；在 2025/3/18至2025/4/7这一区间，城投3年AAA、城投3年AA+、城投3年AA的收益率收窄幅 度分别为25BP、29BP和31BP，而同期3年国债收益率收窄幅度为20BP；类似的规律中票 走势中也存在。体现出债市走牛区间，近几年信用债在前期城投化债、产业地产主体不 断出清的背景下，风险降低的一致性预期下，叠加"资产荒"持续存在，市场风险偏好 提高，带动低等级信用债走势更好。 2、 熊市阶段，一方面近几年债市走牛的趋势性明显，阶段性震荡或走熊时间一般不 长；另一方面，AAA和AA+级别城投债一般走阔幅度在多数走熊阶段要高于A ...

华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 4 月 14 日 策 略 研 究 乱云飞渡仍从容：关税反击与稳市决心——"国 家队"ETF 持仓梳理 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 本周市场逐步修复，全 A 收跌-4.31%。从指数情况看，科创 50、上证 50、沪深 300 较为抗跌，中证 1000、微盘股、创业板指领跌。从风格情况 看，消费、金融地产较为抗跌，医药医疗、先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万 行业涨少跌多，仅农林牧渔、商贸零售、国防军工、食品饮料上涨，机械 设备、通信、电力设备领跌。 "对等关税"下的反击措施与稳市决心 （1）特朗普 2.0 时代中美关税交锋回顾：回顾特朗普 2 月以来的关税政策， 大致可以划分为持续制造关税威胁——>对墨加关税反复摇摆——>尤为针 对中国的全球"对等关税"三阶段。 不难发现，特朗普起初高举关税大棒，之后又利用关税作为谈判筹码， 试图破坏、重塑全球贸易体系。在此期间，特朗普对中国多次进行关税威 胁，不断升级对中国的非理性关税制裁，或试图寻求中国的让步。然而中 国始终采取快速反制举措，保持强硬姿态，最终将所谓的"对等关税"定 义为"数字游戏"。 美国关税具有不可预测性与来 ...

华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 4 月 14 日 投资要点： 本周美国市场因关税政策与通胀问题呈现剧烈波动。美国关税政策反复 无常，使美股市场大幅下挫后又强势反弹，美元指数连续五日下跌并跌破 100 关口，10年期美债收益率上涨47BP至4.48%，黄金持续刷新历史高位。 虽然本周公布的美国3月CPI数据超预期下行，核心CPI（2.8%）低于前值， 但90天的暂停关税政策或引发美国消费者囤货进而推高短期通胀，影响美联 储降息节奏，增加美国滞涨风险。周五美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）豁免 了包含自动数据处理器、电脑、通信设备、显示器与模组、半导体等商品的 关税，称这些商品不受"对等关税"影响，电子产品关税豁免将直接利好科 技企业，也是美国关税政策的一次重大转向。关税政策带来通胀风险和不确 定性，导致降息路径复杂化，未来仍需重点关注关税谈判进展以及各国反制 措施的影响。 美国经济数据方面：（1）美国3月未季调CPI年率录得2.4%，低于前值 2.8%，预期值2.6%；美国3月季调后CPI月率录得-0.1%，低于前值0.2%，预期 值0.1%；美国3月季调后核心CPI月率录得0.1%，低于前值0.2%，预期值 ...

Group 1: Macro Policy and Industry Trends - The report highlights a focus on accelerating new infrastructure, energy system innovation, and upgrading consumption scenarios to build a new high-quality development pattern [1][11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated 168 pilot projects for 10G optical networks, while the Beidou industry chain and spatiotemporal information industry planning are advancing [1][11] - The capital market shows characteristics of policy-driven and risk-averse sentiment, with defensive sectors like consumption leading the gains, reflecting cautious expectations for weak economic recovery [1][11] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is positively impacted by the newly released "origin" recognition rules, with a slight increase of 0.31% in the sector [1][33] - The report suggests that the origin of integrated circuits should be declared based on the location of the wafer fabrication plant, regardless of whether they are packaged or unpackaged [33] Group 3: Energy Sector - The report discusses the scale development of virtual power plants and the establishment of hydrogen energy standards, which are expected to promote the coordination of new power systems and green economy [1][21] - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the importance of sharing technology and experience with South Africa to enhance its energy supply capabilities [19] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with residential land transaction prices increasing significantly, reaching CNY 0.4 trillion in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 26.5% [23] Group 5: Consumer Electronics - The approval of national standards for voice interaction technology in smart home appliances is set to take effect on September 1, 2025, which will enhance the safety and functionality of these devices [24] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report outlines measures to support the high-quality development of innovative pharmaceuticals in Beijing, encouraging local production and the introduction of significant drug varieties from abroad [28] Group 7: Sports Industry - Financial support for the construction of sports infrastructure and the development of the sports industry is emphasized, with a focus on integrating sports with culture, tourism, and health [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for 2024, achieving a total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The growth in the company's express logistics business volume reached 13.26 billion parcels, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase, with a notable 15.3% growth rate excluding the Fengwang business [3]. - The company has successfully improved its profitability through cost control measures and operational efficiency, resulting in a gross profit margin of 13.9%, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.19 billion yuan, representing a 21.1% increase compared to 2023 [4]. - The capital expenditure for 2024 was 10.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.9% year-on-year, indicating a focus on lean resource planning [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 12.22 billion yuan and 13.64 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 15.4 billion yuan [4].

专注高质量服务，24Q4 散单同比增长超 50%。量：公司 2024 年实现快递件量 340.1 亿件，同比+12.6%，市占率 19.4%，同比 -3.4pp，24Q4 看，单季度公司实现快递件量 96.7 亿件，同比+11%， 市占率 18.8%，同比-3.5pp，公司持续提升散件业务规模，24Q4 散件日均件量突破 700 万单，较 23 年同比增长近 50%。价：2024 年公司单票快递业务收入 1.20 元，同比+2.5%；从 24Q4 单季度看， 中通的直客结构优化抵消了单票重量下降及增量补贴增加的负面 影响，单票快递业务收入 1.24 元，同比+11%，快递核心单票收入 提升 0.13 元。成本：2024 年公司单票快递业务成本 0.68 元，同 比-6%；单季度看单票运输加分拣成本下降了约 6 分。 经营性现金流稳定，25 年包裹量增长同比预期超+20%。2024 全年公司实现毛利润 137.2 亿元，同比+18%，净利润 88.9 亿元， 同比+1.5%，实现调整后净利 101.5 亿元。单季度看，24Q4 实现 毛利润 37.6 亿元，同比+20.2%，净利润 24.5 亿元，同比+10. ...

行 业 研 华福证券 汽车 2025 年 04 月 14 日 究 行 业 周观点（0407-0411）：关税交易钝化后，机器人 板块可开始左侧布局 投资要点： 汽车板块：关税影响边际转弱，关注年报行情 1、近期行情： 本周申万汽车指数下跌 5.5%，申万一级行业排名 21/31 位。 2、行业变化： 定 期 报 告 1）据乘联会，4 月 1-6 日，乘用车零售 21 万辆，同比去年同期增长 2%， 较上月同期下降 14%；乘用车批发 21.2 万辆，同比去年同期增长 11%，较 上月同期下降 21%。 2）4 月 7 日，大众汽车集团与地平线在高阶智驾领域展开合作。 3）4 月 10 日，上汽集团联合华为、Momenta、地平线、火山引擎、OPPO 等十几家合作伙伴召开"上汽之夜"发布会。 3、行情复盘： 据乘联会，1-3 月狭义乘用车批发销量增长 11%，其中新能源乘用车批发销 量增长 42%，属于较强表现，行业β较好。以旧换新政策加码，如上海补 贴范围扩大至外牌旧车。上海车展临近，新车发布预计密集催化。4 月年 报及一季报将密集发布，聚焦头部车企的利润兑现。2024 年中国汽车对美 出口仅占中国汽车出口总 ...

行 业 研 究 3 月信贷、社融超预期，M1 增速回升 投资要点： 3 月信贷、社融数据超预期 当月新增社融 5.89 万亿元，同比多增 1.05 万亿元。3 月末存量社融同 比增长 8.4%，增速环比提升 0.2pct，为近一年来最高。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 从社融增量结构来看，社融同比多增主要来自贷款和直接融资的贡献。 3 月信贷"开门红"顺利收官，信贷增量超预期，社融口径人民币贷 款新增 3.83 万亿元，同比多增 5358 亿元。政府债继续保持较快的发 行节奏，3 月直接融资新增 1.43 万亿元，其中政府债新增 1.48 万亿元， 同比多增 1.02 万亿元。 银行 2025 年 04 月 14 日 企业短贷支撑信贷同比多增 3 月是传统信贷投放大月，实体信贷需求旺盛，贷款同比多增主要来 自企业短贷贡献。企业贷款新增 2.84 万亿元，同比多增 5000 亿元。 其中，企业中长期贷款新增 15800 亿元，增量与上年同期基本持平； 企业短贷新增 14400 亿元，同比多增 4600 亿元。票据融资减少 1986 亿元，银行将更多信贷投放额度向实体企业倾斜。 居民信贷增量与上年同期基本持平。3 月居 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.901 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 574 million, representing a 14% increase [3][5]. - The report highlights significant growth in overseas orders, with foreign sales projected to reach 1.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%, while domestic sales are expected to decline by 11% due to pressures in the renewable energy sector [4]. - The company is actively expanding its global production capacity and enhancing its AIDC modular product competitiveness, with a notable increase in orders for data center solutions [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.102 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit of 171 million, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 24.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 8.3%, up by 0.7 percentage points [3]. - The overall sales order for the group in 2024 is anticipated to be 8.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.63%, with a backlog of 6.5 billion at the end of 2024, up 35% year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit is forecasted to reach 740 million in 2025, 1.07 billion in 2026, and 1.51 billion in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 14, and 10 times [5][7].