Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The sports brands reported steady growth in Q2 2025, with Anta Sports, Li Ning, and other brands showing varying degrees of year-on-year growth [3][14] - Anta's retail sales for its main brand, FILA, and other brands grew by low single digits, mid single digits, and 50-55% respectively, although there was a slight slowdown compared to Q1 [3][14] - Li Ning's overall sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) achieved low single-digit growth, with a net increase of 11 stores in Q2 [3][14] - Xtep International's main brand saw low single-digit growth, while Saucony exceeded 20% growth [3][14] - 361 Degrees reported approximately 10% growth for its main brand and children's clothing, with e-commerce growth around 20% [3][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Insights - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policy support and a recovery in domestic demand, with recommendations to focus on major home appliances, pet products, small appliances, and brand apparel [5][20] - Key companies to watch include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees [5][20] Market Data - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.5%, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances showing positive growth [21] - The textile and apparel sector increased by 0.24%, with cotton prices rising by 1.59% to 15,508 RMB per ton [23][21] Industry News - Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, announced a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q2, while Ciele Athletics entered the Chinese market through a partnership with a major sports retailer [37][39] Upstream Tracking - The report includes tracking of raw material prices and shipping trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures in the industry [6.1][6.2][6.3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report identifies a total of 30 theme indices in various stages: 0 at the bottom, 5 in breakout, 24 in main rise, and 1 in acceleration, with the automotive industry being prominent among the breakout indices and the pharmaceutical, computer, and communication industries among the main rise indices [12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes has shown a slight recovery, with both themes reaching a trading heat of 82%, indicating a positive market sentiment [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines two main objectives of the theme database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks in the market [9]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring leading stocks' positions, with Longsheng Bearing's closing price exceeding its 60-day moving average by 9.2% and Daily Interaction's closing price exceeding its 60-day moving average by 2.1% [17][22]. - The report indicates that the trading heat rising to 90%-95% may suggest that the theme or stage is becoming overheated, which could be a critical indicator for investors [20].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aim to support the high-quality development of China's innovative drug industry, injecting new vitality into the sector through 16 specific initiatives across five areas [8][9][14] - In 2024, the number of approved Class 1 innovative drugs reached 46, which is over five times that of 2018, with nearly 40 approvals in the first half of this year alone [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of utilizing healthcare data to guide drug development, helping companies identify research directions and achieve differentiated innovation [8][9] Group 2 - The report notes that as of May 2025, the healthcare fund has paid a cumulative total of 410 billion yuan for negotiated drugs, driving related drug sales to exceed 600 billion yuan, providing strong support for the market promotion of innovative drugs [9] - The commercial health insurance market in China is rapidly growing, with health insurance premium income reaching 977.4 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, approaching the overall funding level of resident health insurance [9] - The report indicates that the innovative drugs listed in the healthcare directory will not be subject to the "one product, two regulations" restriction, further enhancing their accessibility [14] Group 3 - The report reviews the performance of the pharmaceutical sector, noting that the chemical pharmaceutical industry and biological products saw significant gains of +6.86% and +3.68% respectively during the week of July 14-18 [15] - The report provides insights into the valuation levels of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, with the chemical pharmaceutical sector having a PE ratio of 90.83 and biological products at 72.77 [15][18] - The report tracks the performance of the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting that raw materials and chemical preparations had the highest gains of +7.01% and +6.83% respectively [18]

行 业 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 07 月 20 日 研 究 工信部推动人形机器人等未来产业超前布局，宇树科技 开启上市辅导 投资要点： 推动人形机器人等未来产业创新发展，超前布局新领域新赛道 行 业 定 期 报 告 7 月 18 日，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋在国新办新闻发布会 上介绍 2025 年上半年工业和信息化发展情况，会上提到组织实施国家 科技重大专项和国家重点研发计划，开展专项行动，培育新产业、打 造新动能，加快发展生物制造、低空产业。推动人形机器人、元宇宙、 脑机接口等未来产业创新发展，超前布局新领域新赛道。 宇树科技开启上市辅导，实控人王兴兴合计控股近 35% 据券商中国，7 月 18 日，根据中国证监会官网信息，宇树科技已 开启上市辅导，由中信证券担任辅导机构。根据辅导备案报告，宇树 科技控股股东、实际控制人为王兴兴，其直接持有公司 23.8216%股权， 并通过上海宇翼企业管理咨询合伙企业（有限合伙）控制公司 10.9414% 股权，合计控制公司 34.7630%股权。 人形机器人造福全人类，未来有望像汽车般普及 中国机器人网表示，目前来看，发展足够智能的人形机器人把人 类社会的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report discusses the expansion of the consumption tax on ultra-luxury cars and the regulation of the competitive order in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, which is expected to enhance the tax system in the automotive industry [11][12] - The NEV market in China is rapidly growing, transitioning from a fuel-based vehicle market to one dominated by electric vehicles, with recent policy adjustments aimed at guiding this transition [12][13] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - On July 17, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced adjustments to the consumption tax policy for ultra-luxury cars, lowering the taxable price threshold from 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan and including electric and fuel cell vehicles in the tax scope [11][12] - A meeting on July 18, 2025, involving key automotive enterprises and regulatory bodies, aimed to address irrational competition in the NEV sector and promote sustainable development through enhanced supervision, long-term mechanisms, standardization, and industry self-discipline [13] Market Performance - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the automotive sector increased by 3.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points, ranking third among 31 sectors [17][22] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 11.3%, ranking tenth among the sectors [17] Key Data - Retail sales of passenger cars from July 1 to July 13, 2025, reached 571,000 units, a 7% increase year-on-year, while NEV retail sales were 332,000 units, up 26% year-on-year [35][36] - Wholesale figures for the same period showed passenger car sales at 555,000 units, a 34% increase year-on-year, with NEV wholesale sales at 316,000 units, a 37% increase year-on-year [36] Industry News - The report highlights significant developments in the automotive industry, including new vehicle launches and financial performance updates from major companies like North Vehicle Blue Valley and Jianghuai Automobile, which reported substantial losses due to competitive pressures [74][75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Views - The coal price has shown a continuous rebound due to rising daily consumption and decreasing inventory as the peak season approaches [5]. - The global coal shipment volume to China reached 4.166 million tons, a weekly increase of 2.9 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [5]. - The report suggests increasing allocation to coal stocks that benefit from price elasticity, highlighting the significant dividend yield and value of core stocks in the long term [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly decreased by 0.87%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.09% [16]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 12.9%, while the broader index has risen by 3.14% [16]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.6 times, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [17]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of July 18, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 642 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 1.6% [3][30]. - The average daily output of 462 sample mines is 5.697 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.97% [43]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi is 70.7%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 666 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [29]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The spot price for Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal increased by 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The price for Shanxi weakly adhesive coal (5500K) rose by 24 RMB/ton, marking a 4.8% increase [33]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi-Inner Mongolia-Shaanxi region is 81.1%, with a slight increase from the previous week [41]. - Daily consumption at six major power plants rose to 89.9 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [47]. - The total inventory of thermal coal at 462 sample mines is 337.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128.3% [63]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increased to 1440 RMB/ton, a weekly rise of 6.67% [81]. - The average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 77 million tons, with an operating rate of 86.1% [81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price of Shanxi coking coal rose to 1150 RMB/ton, marking a 9.5% increase week-on-week [82]. - The price of Henan coking coal remains stable at 1380 RMB/ton, with no change from the previous week [82].

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 07 月 18 日 经济好转联储反击，美元升值态势延续 ——宏观周报（第 13 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 美国零售大幅反弹，就业连续改善。汽车销售升温，美国 6 月零售大 幅反弹，现有关税影响程度较小。减税法案落地支撑居民收入，美国商品 消费可能加速升温。美国 6 月零售同比大幅反弹 0.6 个百分点至 3.9%，主 要拉动来自汽车。3 月以来美国汽车零售整体位于 2024 年以来较高区间， 显示当前关税对美国耐用消费品需求冲击幅度有限。近期美国新一轮减税 法案落地，中高收入群体收入获得支撑，美国居民消费特别是可选耐用商 品消费需求可能加速升温。美国初请失业金人数连续第 5 周大幅下行，显 示近期就业持续向好，关税对供给侧影响不大。就业和薪资改善的前景可 能意味着美联储降息必要性持续下降。截至 7 月 12 日美国当周初请失业金 人数（季调）仅 22.1 万人，较前周再度下行 0.7 万人，连续第 5 周大幅下 降并创近 13 周新低。预计下半年美国劳动力市场可能再度趋于紧张，就业 和薪资趋于改善，届时美元指数可能迎来大幅反弹。 日本通胀强弩之末，存在重 ...

Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased to 2.7% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from May, while the core CPI rose to 2.9%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase, the first rise in four months[3] - Energy prices contributed significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% in June, up 1.9 percentage points from May, driving the overall CPI rebound[3] Core CPI Drivers - The core CPI's increase was influenced by three main factors: the penetration effect of rising oil prices, initial signs of tariff impacts, and strengthened wage transmission[4] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from May, correlating with the rise in energy prices[4] Economic Outlook - The fiscal stimulus, rising tariff rates, and heated labor market conditions suggest a phase of core CPI recovery in the US, making the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year very low[5] - The anticipated rise in oil prices is viewed as temporary, while the impacts of tariffs and wages are expected to be more sustainable, potentially prolonging inflationary pressures[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations and a significant rebound in the dollar index, which could constrain monetary easing in China[6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - The report highlights that the improvement in chip supply is expected to positively influence capital expenditure (Capex) recovery and tender rhythm, with a focus on the domestic computing power market in the second half of the year [2][4] - Key events include NVIDIA's announcement to resume sales of H20 in China and the introduction of the B30 GPU, which has already received orders worth $1 billion [3][4] - The report indicates that the overall Capex from major manufacturers is anticipated to significantly increase starting Q3, with Alibaba's proposed investment of 380 billion yuan over three years, suggesting a recovery in the power equipment supply chain [4] Supply Side Summary - The chip supply is set to recover, leading to a substantial increase in capital expenditure from major manufacturers, which will accelerate the release of orders for electromechanical equipment [4] - Factors contributing to this improvement include geopolitical stability, the imminent resumption of H20 sales, and strong demand for B30 testing [4] Demand Side Summary - The exponential growth in inference/training tokens is expected to drive demand for computing power, which will, in turn, boost chip shipments and cloud manufacturers' Capex [5] - Notable developments include META's plan to expand Hyperion to 5GW and Tesla's integration of Grok into its AI systems, enhancing vehicle interaction and autonomous driving capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - For power generation: The supply-demand balance may remain neutral to tight, with short-term urgent orders likely to catalyze price increases. Companies to watch include Yuchai International, Chongqing Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Keta Power [6] - For power distribution: Orders and deliveries from leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high growth alongside Capex releases, with potential price reduction risks from large-scale procurement. Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric, Oulu Tong, Kehua Data, and others [6] - For liquid cooling: The demand for cooling in data centers is high, benefiting from increased orders in North America. Companies to focus on include Ice Wheel Environment, Inveck, and others [6] - For HVLP copper foil: The rise in AI server power consumption is expected to drive demand for high-end PCB copper foil. Companies to monitor include Defu Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [6] - Other segments include switchgear and computing power leasing, with companies like Liangxin Stock and Hongjing Technology being highlighted [6]

Economic Performance - In Q2, the actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, supported by durable consumer goods subsidies contributing 2.7 percentage points and net exports contributing 1.2 percentage points[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate fell to 3.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from Q1, indicating insufficient domestic consumption and investment momentum[3] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 5.5% for above-limit retail, both down from May by 1.6 and 2.7 percentage points respectively[4] - The decline in essential goods and dining revenues was attributed to adverse weather conditions, while durable goods related to real estate maintained high growth, with June showing a 10.2% increase[4] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in June fell by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first monthly negative growth since 2022, with real estate development investment down by 12.9%[5] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments decreased by 3.4% and 5.0% respectively, reflecting high base effects and strict control over local government debt[5] Real Estate Market - Residential sales area saw a significant year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with new and second-hand housing prices continuing to drop, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[5] - The price-to-income ratio in the real estate market remains high, with new and second-hand housing prices falling by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively in June[5] Industrial Output - Industrial value added rose by 1.0 percentage points to 6.8% in June, with manufacturing and mining sectors showing increases of 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively[28] - Key manufacturing sectors such as textiles and chemicals showed significant recovery, while automotive manufacturing experienced a slight decline but remained in a high growth range[28] Future Outlook - The sustainability of high economic growth in the second half of the year is uncertain, with potential downward pressures on exports and consumption due to external factors and ongoing real estate market challenges[6] - Monetary and fiscal policies may need to be effectively timed to stimulate the economy, especially if export performance declines rapidly post-August[6] Risks - Risks include the possibility of fiscal expansion falling short of expectations and a greater-than-expected decline in exports[7]