行 业 研 究 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 11 月 30 日 首例"医保价"脑机接口手术完成，前沿疗法惠及患者 "十五五"重点赛道，脑机接口市场规模有望快速增长 根据 precedence research，2024 年全球脑机接口市场规模约为 26.2 亿美元，预计 2025 年将达到 29.4 亿美元，到 2034 年有望增长至 124 亿美元，十年间复合年增长率为 17.35%；据工信微报，2024 年中国脑 机接口市场规模为 32.0 亿元，预计到 2028 年将达 61.4 亿元。《中共 中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出前 瞻布局未来产业，推动脑机接口等成为新的经济增长点。这些产业蓄 势发力，未来 10 年将再造一个中国高技术产业。 建议关注 华福证券 风险提示 政策破冰推动技术规范化普及 今年 3 月 31 日，湖北省医保局在国家医保局指导下发布全国首个 脑机接口医疗服务价格，破解了该技术因缺乏收费标准难以进入常规 医疗服务体系的难题。此次同济医院的临床实践，标志着植入式脑机 接口技术正式纳入规范化医疗服务体系，为其大规模临床应用奠定制 度基础，助力技术普惠化与产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - The first batch of Sci-tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robot ETFs is expected to be launched, with seven fund companies focusing on new productivity [4][3]. - UBTECH has secured a significant order of 143 million yuan for its humanoid robot Walker S2, contributing to a total order amount of 1.3 billion yuan for the year 2025 [5]. - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030 [6]. Summary by Sections ETF Market Development - The ETF market is experiencing a surge with multiple new products focusing on new productivity sectors, as reported by seven fund companies since November 24 [4]. Company Performance - UBTECH's Walker series humanoid robots have achieved a total order value of 1.3 billion yuan for 2025, with recent orders including 159 million yuan and 264 million yuan, the latter setting a record for the largest single order in the humanoid robot sector [5]. Market Forecast - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to grow significantly, with sales expected to increase from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units by 2030, reflecting a strong demand for intelligent humanoid robots [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The China-Europe Railway Express has cumulatively operated over 120,000 trains, with a total cargo value exceeding 490 billion USD, establishing a comprehensive transportation network covering 128 cities in China and 232 cities across 26 European countries and over 100 cities in 11 Asian countries [3][4]. - The railway's high-quality development is achieved through optimized transportation organization, upgraded technical equipment, and improved service systems, resulting in a 10% increase in transportation capacity and a reduction in customs clearance time to under 30 minutes [4]. - The Chinese government's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand the railway operating mileage to 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching approximately 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Company Summaries - China CNR Corporation: A global leader in rail transit equipment, maintaining the top position in revenue within the industry [5]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A leading provider of rail transit control systems, characterized by its advanced control technology [5]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. - Sifang Control: A specialized enterprise in railway safety assurance, becoming a core supplier in the high-speed rail monitoring field [5]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients including national railways and urban rail systems [5]. - Huifeng Technology: Focused on rail transit services, providing operation and maintenance equipment and integrated solutions with rich experience in technology development and project implementation [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [10][17] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a meeting on November 28, focusing on the "anti-involution" in the power and energy storage battery industry, emphasizing the need to enhance the lithium battery sector [4][7] - High-level attendance at the meeting indicates strong potential for subsequent actions and decisions [5][6] - The meeting addressed critical issues such as production operations, technology research and development, market competition, and intellectual property protection, highlighting the pain points in the industry [7] - MIIT plans to introduce targeted policies to mitigate irrational competition and promote a healthier and more sustainable industry ecosystem [8] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The MIIT meeting included representatives from major companies in the lithium battery sector, indicating a significant focus on addressing industry challenges [4][6] - The discussion centered on the overcapacity issues caused by blind expansion in the lithium battery materials industry over the past two years [7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that most sub-sectors of lithium battery materials are expected to achieve orderly expansion without significant overcapacity in the coming years [8] - Certain sub-sectors with low profitability and long payback periods may see price increases [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in global energy storage, power, and consumer batteries such as CATL, EVE Energy, and others [8] - Specific companies to watch for price increases include those in lithium iron phosphate, copper and aluminum foil, separators, and electrolytes [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on high dividend assets in the coal and highway sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries due to their stable cash flows and defensive characteristics [2][12]. Core Insights - The coal industry is highlighted as a high dividend sector with significant cash flow improvements due to supply constraints and long-term contract policies, making leading companies particularly attractive for investment [4][45]. - The highway sector is characterized by stable cash flows and nearing completion of expansion projects, which will enhance future cash flow releases, thus making these companies appealing for dividends [4][50]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of the stock-bond yield spread, noting that high dividend assets are increasingly valued in a low-interest-rate environment, with bank wealth management products yielding between 1.8%-3.2% and 10-year government bonds yielding 1.6%-1.9% [2][12]. Excess Returns and Stock Price Influences - Coal sector excess returns are closely tied to coal prices, suggesting that investments in coal dividend assets are advisable during periods of rising coal prices and positive stock-bond yield spreads [3][39]. - The highway sector's excess returns are more sensitive to market downturns and bond yield changes, indicating that investments in highway dividend assets are preferable during market declines [3][42]. High Dividend Drivers - In the coal sector, high dividends are driven by supply constraints and improved cash flows from long-term contracts, with leading companies benefiting from higher industry concentration and robust financial health [4][45]. - For the highway sector, high dividends stem from stable cash flows and the completion of expansion projects, which will allow for increased shareholder returns [4][50]. Company-Specific Recommendations - In the coal industry, companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their high dividend levels and strong market positions, while Yanzhou Coal is noted for its growth potential alongside high dividends [5][56]. - In the highway sector, companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway are highlighted for their nearing completion of expansion projects and high dividend levels, with China Merchants Highway recognized for its strong cash flow and profitability [5][60].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for coal investments, emphasizing the potential for price stabilization and upward movement in the coal market [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) is closely linked to coal prices, with expectations for coal prices to stabilize and potentially rise due to policy changes aimed at reducing "involution" competition [5]. - The coal industry is positioned within an energy transformation era, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5]. - Despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, maintaining a fluctuating upward trend [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of November 28, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 4 CNY/ton [3][30]. - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.5 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8 thousand tons week-on-week and a 6.8% year-on-year decline [3][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a small decline in daily coal consumption at major power plants, with inventories showing a slight increase, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [39]. - Methanol and urea operating rates are reported at 89.1% and 83.7%, respectively, indicating robust industrial activity [3][44]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities based on resource endowment, operational stability, and potential for dividend increases, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6]. - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 684 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.0 CNY/ton month-on-month but a decrease of 15.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [26]. - The report also notes fluctuations in international coal prices, with Newcastle coal prices rising to 113.8 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.7 USD/ton [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The six ministries issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming for a significant optimization of the supply structure by 2027, with the formation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [12][2] - The document emphasizes innovation in new technologies and models, including electric vehicles, smart home appliances, and customized services, while highlighting the role of artificial intelligence in upgrading the consumer goods sector [13][14] - There is a focus on expanding the supply of specialty and new products, particularly in areas such as green low-carbon products, rural consumption, health foods, and traditional cultural products [15][18] - The report details the need for precise matching of consumer needs across different demographics, including infants, students, trendy consumers, and the elderly [20][23] - It encourages the cultivation of new consumption scenarios and business formats, supporting the launch of new consumer products and the use of AI to analyze user needs [24] Summary by Sections New Technology and Model Innovation - The document outlines new tracks and models, focusing on smart connected electric vehicles, smart home appliances, and flexible production [13] - It promotes the establishment of flexible manufacturing factories in various sectors, including home appliances and textiles [14] Expansion of Specialty and New Product Supply - The report highlights the need for green product expansion and the development of high-efficiency appliances suitable for rural environments [15][18] - It supports the development of health products and encourages the consumption of organic and geographical indication products [19] Precise Matching of Consumer Needs - The report emphasizes the importance of developing products tailored for specific demographics, such as infants and the elderly [20][23] Cultivation of New Consumption Scenarios - It supports the establishment of flagship stores and the use of AI in consumer product launches [24]

Group 1 - The core message from the November Politburo meeting emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership and ensuring the execution of national development strategies to facilitate high-quality development and clear obstacles for the second centenary goal [2][19] - The meeting indicates that the policy environment will continue to be purified, focusing on high-quality development and identifying potential risks and opportunities in the capital market [2][19] - The integration of inspection rectification with the "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that the top-level design and local practices will be based on a thorough understanding of current development experiences and corrections of existing deviations [8][10] Group 2 - The meeting highlights that inspection rectification will be a key driver for high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing policy execution and reducing discrepancies in local implementation of central decisions [8][9] - The emphasis on a correct performance view and the implementation of new development concepts will guide local governments in aligning with national strategies, promoting sustainable and quality growth [10][11] - The meeting outlines the need for a robust cadre team and governance structure to effectively address complex challenges and enhance decision-making and execution capabilities [16][18]

华福证券 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 29 日 巡视利剑护航"十五五" 事件： 中共中央政治局 11 月 28 日召开会议，审议《关于二十届中央巡视省（自治区、 直辖市）情况的综合报告》。 主要政策解读： （1）彰显巡视利剑作用。从巡视全覆盖的成果来看，中央对省级单位的监督 已形成常态化机制。会议既肯定了各省区市工作的新进展，也直言不讳指出 存在问题，必须从政治上高度重视，这种"以巡促察、以改提质、以治固 本"的系统化治理逻辑，不仅使巡视成为全面从严治党的利剑，更成为十五 五规划精准施策的前置研判机制。 （2）强调动真碰硬整改。"动真碰硬"传递出整改工作绝不能走过场、搞形 式的强烈信号。会议将巡视整改与学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神、谋划 "十五五"规划相结合，将其定位为全面从严治党、净化政治生态、加强领 导班子建设的重要抓手，极大地提升了巡视整改的定位和意义，表明中央正 通过巡视利器，推动政治监督具体化、精准化、常态化，为高质量发展清障 护航，十五五规划的高质量编制，正以巡视整改的实效为底色。 （3）靶向施策强整改。会议重申树立正确政绩观、完善干部考核机制，正是 要破解部分地区在经济发展中可能存在的短 ...

Group 1: Economic Focus and Policy Direction - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of unifying thoughts and focusing on policy priorities to promote high-quality development and strengthen technology innovation leadership in the market[2] - The fifth and sixth rounds of inspections will primarily focus on local government work, addressing common issues identified in previous inspections, such as implementing central decisions and enhancing talent and organizational development[12] - The integration of inspection rectification with economic work is crucial for ensuring effective implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and promoting high-quality development[13] Group 2: Local Development Strategies - Local governments are encouraged to adopt tailored development strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, aligning with the central government's strategic positioning for each region[17] - Emphasis on developing characteristic and leading industries based on local resources is expected to be a core principle for the "14th Five-Year Plan" development[17] - The need for local governments to enhance their understanding of technological innovation and improve political awareness is highlighted as essential for optimizing industrial structures and achieving breakthroughs in high-tech research[17] Group 3: Risk Management and Economic Growth - The meeting underscored the importance of risk prevention and the need to enhance the social governance system to mitigate various risks, particularly in the real estate sector[18] - There is a shift towards a new development model in the real estate market, with plans to accelerate the use of special bond funds for acquiring existing properties and addressing idle land issues[18] - The focus on maintaining systemic financial risk prevention and improving financial regulatory effectiveness remains a top priority[18] Group 4: Encouraging Local Leadership - The meeting called for a correct personnel orientation to motivate local officials to take responsibility and actively engage in economic work, especially in major economic provinces[22] - Fujian, as one of the top ten economic provinces, is expected to leverage the meeting's guidance to unlock greater economic growth potential and technological innovation[22]