华福证券 公 司 研 究 普门科技（688389.SH） 试剂占比持续提升，国际市场增长稳健 投资要点： 公 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现收入 11.5 亿（同比+0.20%）， 归母净利润 3.5 亿（同比+5.1%），扣非归母净利润 3.3 亿（同比+4.7%）； 2024Q4 实现收入 2.9 亿（同比-13.5%），归母净利润 8798 万（同比-28.9%）， 扣非归母净利润 8482 万（同比-32.1%）； 司 财 报 点 评 试剂占比提升带动毛利率增长，国际市场增长稳健。分业务来看，24 年体外诊断实现收入 9.1 亿（同比+10%），其中试剂占比由 23 年的 63% 提升至 24 年的 72%，拉动公司整体毛利率提升至 67%（+1.4pct）。治疗 康复实现收入 2.2 亿（同比-28%），其中皮肤医美收入 8238 万（同比-12.2%）， 临床医疗业务收入 1.2 亿（同比-40.6%），临床康复同期高基数及医院招投 标影响，拖累收入增速。从区域维度来看，国内收入 7.8 亿（同比-5.58%）， 国际收入 3.7 亿（同比+14.9%），国际市场保持稳健增长。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [19] Core Views - The company's overall performance in 2024 is under pressure due to reduced hospital procurement activities and increased strategic investments, leading to a 5% year-on-year decline in revenue. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop by 68.7% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on increasing R&D and marketing investments, with a significant rise in management and sales expense ratios, indicating a commitment to high-end product promotion and innovation [3] - The introduction of high-end ultrasound and endoscope products is anticipated to drive growth in 2025, with expectations of a recovery in procurement activities [4][3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.01 billion, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 142 million, down 68.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 615 million, a decline of 5.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33.41 million, down 75% year-on-year [2][3] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2026 to be 401 million, 485 million, and 612 million respectively, indicating a recovery trend [4][6] - The revenue growth rate is projected to rebound to 21% in 2025 and maintain a growth rate of 20% in the following years [6] Product and Market Development - The company has launched several high-end products in 2024, including the S80 and P80 ultrasound machines, and the HD-580 series endoscope platform, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025 [4][3] - The domestic revenue from tier-three hospitals has reached a peak, while international revenue has shown a 3% increase, indicating successful market penetration and brand influence [4][3] Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a unique competitive advantage in minimally invasive procedures and is well-positioned for performance improvement once procurement policies are implemented and market conditions stabilize [4][3]

策 华福证券 2025 年 04 月 17 日 略 研 究 消费与医疗周报——CT 球管制造：突破不断， 国产化势在必行 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周（4.7-4.11）关注的 6 个子行业均录得负收益， 表现不佳。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、商务部于 2025 年 4 月 4 日发布第 19 号、第 20 号公告，决定 对原产于美国、印度的进口相关医用 CT 球管发起反倾销立案调查，同 时对进口医用 CT 球管进行产业竞争力调查。CT 球管是 CT 设备的核 心部件，对图像质量影响极大，生产难度高。我国 CT 球管市场存在巨 大需求，但长期依赖进口。近年来，我国企业在 CT 球管制造技术上取 得突破，国产替代进程加速。智束科技、微睿科技、昆山医源等企业 在技术研发和市场推广方面取得了显著成果，推动了国产 CT 球管向高 端化发展。此次反倾销调查及产业竞争力调查，将为国产 CT 球管产业 的发展提供重要机遇，有助于提升我国在该领域的自主可控能力。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、乱云飞渡仍从容：关税反击与稳市决心——" ...

华福证券 eR 固 Table_First|Table_Summary 固定收益专题 2025 年 4 月 17 日 收 研 究 【华福固收】超长期特别国债发行启动， 后续怎么看？ 投资要点： 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 研究助理： 黄紫仪 邮箱：hzy30614@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 Table_First e p yT tro p _ e lb aT |ts r iF _ e lb aT Table_First|Table_ReportDate Table_First|Table_RelateReport 根据财政部公布的发行计划，从策略维度有三个关注点： 固 定 1.随着超长期特别国债发行计划推出，发行时间集中于4月底至9月底，这一时期 会相对增加超长期国债供给，使得目前较高的地方债-国债利差回落，也可能会有 投资者运用国债期货套保而使得TL表现 ...

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 04 月 17 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 关税冲击升级，内需补位利好建材进一步凸显 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 4 月 10 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率进 一步提高至 125%，次日中国宣布调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税 率，由 84%提升至 125%；财政部办公厅、住房城乡建设部办公厅发布关于 开展 2025 年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动通知；湖南发行 94.15 亿土 地储备专项债，覆盖全省 126 个地块，全部为存量闲置土地；上海一季度 高端一手住宅成交均价环比上涨 0.5%至 14.46 万元/平；深圳一季度新建商 品住宅和二手住宅成交超 2.6 万套，同比+67.7%；广州推行"拿地即动工" 模式、减轻企业履约负担；南京推行以旧换新补助活动，购房人最高可获 1%补助；青岛取消异地缴存人使用住房公积金贷款的户籍条件限制；海南 发布政策：购买新建自住住房单方缴存住房公积金最高贷款基准额度调整 至 80 万元；福州住房公积金管理新规发布，困难企业可降缴存比例至 1%。 短期来看：1）稳增长压力下，4 月政治局会议前 ...

华福证券 公 司 研 究 五芳斋（603237.SH） 毛利改善盈利稳定，增质提效修炼内功 事件：公司披露 24 年年报，报告期内，公司实现营收 22.51 亿元，同比-14.57%； 归母净利润 1.42 亿元，同比-14.24%；扣非归母净利润 1.30 亿元，同比-9.66%。 其中，24Q4 实现营收 2.03 亿元，同比-7.61%；归母净亏损 0.68 亿元，同比 +9.64%，扣非归母净亏损 0.69 亿元，同比+19.99%，同比亏损均有所收窄。 研 究 报 告 盈利预测与投资建议:考虑到 24 年公司业绩不及此前预期，我们下调盈利 预测，预计 25-26 年归母净利润为 1.73/1.95 亿元（原 25-26 年为 1.99/2.19 亿元）， 并引入 27 年归母净利润预测为 2.17 亿元，对应 25-27 年 EPS 为 0.87/0.99/1.10 元，当前股价对应 P/E 为 22/20/18 倍，维持"买入"评级。 公 司 财 报 点 评 Q4 淡季需求弱恢复，粽子及经销渠道恢复正增长。分产品看，24 年粽子 系列/月饼系列/餐食系列/蛋制品、糕点及其他实现收入 15.8/2. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][21]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.026 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 229 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 44.54% and 13.40%, respectively, reflecting a decline of 1.06 percentage points and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year due to increased market competition and rising costs [4][5]. - The company is focusing on improving equipment utilization in traditional sectors while exploring new fields such as commercial aerospace and aviation [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 619 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 83.02 million yuan, down 11.64% year-on-year [4]. - The revenue from testing equipment was 623 million yuan, down 17.25% year-on-year, while revenue from environmental and reliability testing services was 1.009 billion yuan, up 0.64% year-on-year [4]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit, projecting 292 million yuan for 2025 and 371 million yuan for 2026, with a further increase to 454 million yuan by 2027 [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a unique advantage by integrating testing equipment and services, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [6]. - The company has expanded its capabilities in integrated circuit testing services through acquisitions and is continuously enhancing its laboratory testing capabilities to capture new market opportunities [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing product value through a strong IP and functional strategy, aiming to meet diverse consumer needs and expand its market presence internationally [4][15]. - The overseas market is showing initial signs of contribution, with a projected revenue of 1.039 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 22% year-on-year growth [4][15]. - The company plans to strengthen its IP strategy in 2025, targeting high-value stationery products that appeal to younger consumers [4][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 23.351 billion yuan - 2024A: 24.228 billion yuan - 2025E: 27.566 billion yuan - 2026E: 31.143 billion yuan - 2027E: 35.125 billion yuan - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1.527 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.396 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.607 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.831 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.075 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023A: 1.65 yuan - 2024A: 1.51 yuan - 2025E: 1.74 yuan - 2026E: 1.98 yuan - 2027E: 2.25 yuan - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 18 times, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [3][4]. Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The company emphasizes product strength through a combination of strong IP and functionality, which has been a key driver for product upgrades [8][14]. - The independent brand "Qi Zhi Hao Wan" is rapidly developing, focusing on popular two-dimensional IPs and expanding its product offerings [20][22]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where it has established a significant market presence [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, with a combined ratio of 73% in 2024 [4][15]. - The report anticipates steady growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected increases of 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively [4][15].

2025年04月15日 二次抢出口正在孕育,但更陡峭下滑风险亦增 -- 国际贸易数据点评(2025.3) 团队成员 周欣然(S0210525040005) 投资要点: > 别除春节提前导致的3月偏强效应,3月出口同比约5.7%,显著低于抢出口 集中的2月。美国关税局部缓和但仍旨在隔离我国供给,我国出口仍然面临较大 不确定性。3月出口(美元计价,下同)同比12.4%,较2月反弹达15.4个百分点, 但主要原因是春节提前导致的3月偏强效应。由于春节提前至1月,节后复工和出 口恢复期集中于2月,从而令3月出口同比错位性暂时走强。甚于我们团队率先构 建的出口春节调整定量模型,剔除这一暂时性因素后,3月出口同比5.7%,转而 显著低于2月达7.8个百分点。这显示出特朗普前期分两次加码对华加征关税至 20%所引发的首轮"抢出口"效应已经有所衰减。3月进口同比-4.3%,较2月下滑 5.8个百分点,当月货物贸易顺差达 1026亿美元。4月以来,特朗普关税计划一方 面日益凸显对华针对性,另一方面亦暴露出产业链向美国回流的巨大成本掣肘。全 球产业链"极限拉扯"过程中,出口面临短期震荡、长期走弱的巨大不确定性。 > 本轮"抢出口 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 04 月 15 日 二次抢出口正在孕育，但更陡峭下滑风险亦增 ——国际贸易数据点评（2025.3） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 剔除春节提前导致的 3 月偏强效应，3 月出口同比约 5.7%，显著低于抢出口 集中的 2 月。美国关税局部缓和但仍旨在隔离我国供给，我国出口仍然面临较大 不确定性。3 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比 12.4%，较 2 月反弹达 15.4 个百分点， 但主要原因是春节提前导致的 3 月偏强效应。由于春节提前至 1 月，节后复工和出 口恢复期集中于 2 月，从而令 3 月出口同比错位性暂时走强。基于我们团队率先构 建的出口春节调整定量模型，剔除这一暂时性因素后，3 月出口同比 5.7%，转而 显著低于 2 月达 7.8 个百分点。这显示出特朗普前期分两次加码对华加征关税至 20%所引发的首轮"抢出口"效应已经有所衰减。3 月进口同比-4.3%，较 2 月下滑 5.8 个百分点，当月货物贸易顺差达 1026 亿美元。4 月以来，特朗普关税计划一方 面日益凸显对华针对性，另一方面亦暴露出产业链向美国回流的巨大成本掣肘。全 球产业链"极限拉扯"过程中，出口面临短 ...