2025 年 03 月 27 日 第三方稳健增长，供应链效率持续提升 买入(首次) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 | 当前股价（港元） | 14.36 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿港元） | 148.9 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,036.7 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,036.7 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | 10.34-18.82 | | 日均成 交额 （百 万港 | 61.4 | | 元） | | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 颐海国际 恒生指数 相关研究 — 颐海国际（1579.HK）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 3 月 25 日，颐海国际发布 2024 年业绩报告，2024 年 实现营收 65.40 亿元（同增 6%），归母净利润 7.39 亿 ...

2025 年 03 月 27 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：57 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-03-26 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-03-25 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-03-24 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 57 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：算力、家电、深海经济 1、算力主题：据媒体报道，我国全面启动"东数西算" 工程已满 3 年，三大运营商、数据中心服务商以及相关产业 链企业积极跟进，多领域发力，各地新型数字基础设施加速 建设，全国一体化算力体系加快形成。据 2024 中国算力大会 数据，我国在用算力中心机架总规模超 830 万标准机架，算 力总规模达 246EFLOPS，位居全球第二。据统计，2024 年我 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time recommendation [1][8]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates stable revenue growth and accelerated profit release, with 2024 revenue and net profit reaching 80.65 billion and 3.73 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.29% and 19.79% [5]. - The beverage segment shows significant growth, particularly in container noodles and tea drinks, with revenues increasing by 3.74% and 8.18% respectively [6][7]. - The company's high-quality development strategy is effective, with a steady recovery in market share and a notable improvement in gross margin, leading to a robust cash flow performance [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 33.10% and a net profit margin of 4.63%, with respective year-on-year increases of 2.68 and 0.75 percentage points [5]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is reported at 12.46 billion, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 50.39% [5][11]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from beverages, instant noodles, and other segments for 2024 is 51.62 billion, 28.41 billion, and 615 million respectively, with the beverage segment showing a positive growth trend [6]. - The company maintains a competitive edge in the packaging water sector by not engaging in price wars, focusing instead on high-quality development [6]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 82.37 billion, 84.45 billion, and 86.67 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.74, 0.81, and 0.88 [10][11]. - The expected PE ratios for the upcoming years are projected at 16, 15, and 14 times, indicating a favorable valuation [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time recommendation [1][8]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates stable revenue growth and accelerated profit release, with 2024 revenue and net profit reaching 80.65 billion and 3.73 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.29% and 19.79% [5]. - The beverage segment shows significant growth, particularly in container noodles and tea drinks, with revenues increasing by 3.74% and 8.18% respectively [6][7]. - The company's high-quality development strategy is effective, with a steady recovery in market share and a notable improvement in gross margin [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 33.10% and a net profit margin of 4.63%, with respective year-on-year increases of 2.68 and 0.75 percentage points [5]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 12.46 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from beverages, instant noodles, and other segments for 2024 was 51.62 billion, 28.41 billion, and 0.615 billion respectively, with the beverage segment showing a year-on-year growth of 1.34% [6]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of 82.37 billion, 84.45 billion, and 86.67 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.74, 0.81, and 0.88 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with significant profit release observed. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 484.4 million and 114 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -9.0% and +89.2% [5] - Successful integration with Mengniu Cheese is anticipated to enhance dual-brand synergy and operational efficiency, solidifying the company's leadership in the cheese category [6] - The company is expected to improve profitability through capacity ramp-up and cost control, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.42, 0.62, and 0.80 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 50, 34, and 26 times [9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 484.4 million yuan, with a net profit of 114 million yuan, reflecting a profit margin of 2.35% and a gross margin of 28.99% [5] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 531 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.3% [5] Business Integration - Revenue from cheese, liquid milk, and trading products for 2024 was 375.7 million, 40.1 million, and 53.1 million yuan, respectively, with cheese revenue growing by 7% [6] - The company has integrated Mengniu Cheese, enhancing channel efficiency and management synergy [6] Channel Development - Revenue from distribution, direct sales, and trading channels for 2024 was 367.3 million, 48.5 million, and 53.1 million yuan, respectively, with a net increase of 488 distributors [7] - The company has a total of 7,797 distributors and nearly 800,000 terminal points [7] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 12.7%, 12.3%, and 11.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11] - The net profit is expected to grow by 88.5%, 49.0%, and 28.8% over the same period [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with significant profit release observed. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 484.4 million and 114 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -9.0% and +89.2% [5] - Successful integration with Mengniu Cheese is anticipated to enhance dual-brand synergy and operational efficiency, solidifying the company's leadership in the cheese category [6] - The company is expected to improve profitability through capacity ramp-up and cost control, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.42, 0.62, and 0.80 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 50, 34, and 26 times [9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 484.4 million yuan, with a net profit of 114 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease in revenue of 9.0% and an increase in net profit of 89.2% [5] - Gross margin and net margin were 28.99% and 2.35%, respectively, with slight improvements year-on-year [5] Integration and Development - Revenue from cheese, liquid milk, and trading products for 2024 was 375.7 million, 40.1 million, and 53.1 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7%, 4%, and a decline of 35% [6] - The company has completed the merger with Mengniu Cheese, enhancing channel integration and operational efficiency [6] Channel Development - Revenue from distribution, direct sales, and trading channels for 2024 was 367.3 million, 48.5 million, and 53.1 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +9%, -10%, and -35% [7] - The company has a robust distribution network with 7,797 distributors and nearly 800,000 terminal points [7] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 12.7%, 12.3%, and 11.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 238 million, 363 million, and 472 million yuan for the same years [11]

2025 年 03 月 25 日 大单品势能延续，全渠道渗透再拓空间 —劲仔食品（003000.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-03-25 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 12.09 | | 总市值（亿元） | 55 | | 总股本（百万股） | 451 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 304 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 10.19-15.89 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 113.61 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 劲仔食品 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《劲仔食品（003000）：线上渠 道延续调整，品类迭代打开盈利空 间》2024-10-25 2、《劲仔食品（003000）：利润延 续高增，产品渠道持续发力》2024- ...

2025 年 03 月 26 日 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 44 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：44 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 今日热点主题：算力、家电、深海经济 1、算力主题：据媒体报道，我国全面启动"东数西算" 工程已满 3 年，三大运营商、数据中心服务商以及相关产业 链企业积极跟进，多领域发力，各地新型数字基础设施加速 建设，全国一体化算力体系加快形成。据 2024 中国算力大会 数据，我国在用算力中心机架总规模超 830 万标准机架，算 力总规模达 246EFLOPS，位居全球第二。据统计，2024 年我 国数字经济增加值占 GDP 比重已超过 45%，其中算力相关产 业 贡 献 了 约 三 分 之 一 的 增 量 。 相 关 标 的 ： 众 合 科 技 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in popular reading and is actively engaging in the construction of a culturally strong nation through its business strategies [2][9] - The company’s main revenue streams include book publishing and distribution, digital services, and urban cultural space operations, with total revenue for 2024 projected at 1.687 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 1.72% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its publishing capabilities and has seen significant growth in its IP-related businesses, particularly in the animation sector, which grew over 25% year-on-year in 2024 [5][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.687 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 119 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [11] - The company’s gross margin improved by 4.09 percentage points, driven by the application of digital technologies that enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4][9] - Forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate revenue growth to 1.739 billion yuan, 1.820 billion yuan, and 1.905 billion yuan respectively, with net profit expected to reach 163 million yuan, 202 million yuan, and 224 million yuan [9][11] Industry Insights - The overall book retail market in China is projected to decline slightly in 2024, with a total market value of 112.9 billion yuan, down 1.52% year-on-year [6] - The government is promoting reading through new regulations aimed at enhancing public access to reading facilities, which may provide growth opportunities for the company [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in operating margins, with a continuous optimization of gross profit margins. In 2024, total operating revenue was 238.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of falling product prices outweighing sales growth. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.50 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 0.97 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year [5] - The company is experiencing an increase in sales volume for its main products, with ample incremental channel space. In 2024, revenue from kitchen foods was 145.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with sales volume of 24.07 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year. The company is focusing on high-end product development and expanding into the health sector to diversify its business [6] - The company is expected to recover further as raw material and end-product prices stabilize. The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.52, 0.65, and 0.84 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 62, 50, and 38 times [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total operating revenue was 63.41 billion yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.07 billion yuan, up 49% year-on-year. The improvement was mainly due to better performance in the flour business and enhanced product profitability from the feed raw materials and oil technology industry chain [5] Sales and Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its wholesale distribution channels and has established a dedicated team to tap into lower-tier markets. Additionally, rice oil products are being gradually introduced into overseas markets such as the US, Canada, and Japan, which is expected to contribute to performance growth [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to see steady sales volume growth despite short-term revenue pressure from raw material cost fluctuations. The anticipated revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 7.3%, 8.0%, and 9.4%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 12.4%, 24.6%, and 29.4% [11]