Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Rotation Timing Model for High Growth and Dividend Strategies - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to determine the optimal allocation between high-growth and dividend strategies based on effective single-factor signals, such as term spreads, social financing growth, CPI & PPI quadrants, US bond yields, and capital flow dynamics. [56] - **Model Construction Process**: - At the end of each month, the model selects effective signals from single-factor tests: term spreads, social financing growth, CPI & PPI quadrants, US bond yields, and capital flow indicators (ETF, insurance funds, foreign capital). - Each factor provides a buy signal for either high-growth or dividend strategies. - The average score across all factors is used as the final allocation signal. - Example: Rapid narrowing of term spreads, continued negative growth in CPI & PPI, and high volatility in 10-year US bond yields support a preference for dividend strategies. [56] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures shifts in market dynamics and provides actionable allocation signals. [56] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Rotation Timing Model - **Annualized Return**: +14.86% - **Excess Annualized Return (vs. Benchmark)**: +11.90% - **Performance Period**: From September 2024, the model shifted to growth allocation driven by capital flows, while in October, it signaled a return to dividend strategies due to market volatility. [56] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Fear and Greed Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: This index aggregates seven market behavior indicators, including market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put-call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe-haven demand. It measures the overall sentiment of fear or greed in the market. [19] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Each component is calculated individually and normalized. - The aggregated score is used to determine the market's sentiment level, with higher values indicating greed and lower values indicating fear. [19] 2. Factor Name: Gold Timing Indicators - **Factor Construction Idea**: These indicators assess gold's short-term and medium-term investment value based on macroeconomic and technical factors. [23][26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - Commercial bank total liabilities (monthly data, 25 trading days lag). - Economic policy uncertainty index (30-day moving average). - CFTC gold speculative net long positions (weekly data, 6 trading days lag). - Central bank gold purchases (monthly data, 6 trading days lag). - **Technical Indicators**: - MAMA (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) with parameters fastlimit=0.1 and slowlimit=0.01. [23][26] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Fear and Greed Index - **Latest Value**: 53.51, indicating limited upside potential in the US stock market. [19] 2. Gold Timing Indicators - **Commercial Bank Total Liabilities**: Positive correlation (+1). - **Economic Policy Uncertainty Index**: Positive correlation (+1). - **CFTC Gold Speculative Net Long Positions**: Latest value: 36,140, positive correlation (+1). - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: Latest value: 7,383 ounces, positive correlation (+1). - **Technical Indicator (MAMA)**: Indicates continued bullish momentum for gold. [23][26][28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is the largest manufacturer of auxiliary electric heaters for air conditioning in China and ranks among the top two in the PTC electric heater sector for new energy vehicles. It is also the only supplier of mass-produced pre-plated nickel materials for power applications [4]. - The company plans to focus on three main business areas: enhancing its automotive thermal management product matrix, leveraging its technical and channel advantages in automotive parts and lithium battery casing materials to develop core products in robotics, and developing solid-state battery materials [4]. - The company has entered into a strategic partnership with Shanghai Zhishi to expand its business in flexible fabric pressure sensors and robot electronic skin applications [5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 38.21 billion, 41.34 billion, and 45.16 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.19, 0.23, and 0.24 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 25.6, 21.8, and 20.2 times for the respective years [6]. Summary by Sections Business Focus - The company aims to transition from a supplier of automotive thermal management components to an integrated service provider, significantly increasing the value per vehicle [4]. - The company will also focus on developing core products in robotics and solid-state battery materials, leveraging its existing technological expertise [4]. Strategic Partnership - The collaboration with Shanghai Zhishi is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in flexible fabric pressure sensors and robot electronic skin, providing a competitive edge in the market [5]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates steady overall performance in 2025, with the home appliance electric heating segment remaining stable, the new energy vehicle PTC segment experiencing rapid growth, and the industrial equipment segment declining slightly. The new materials segment is expected to turn profitable [4]. - Detailed financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth rate of 3.0% in 2025, followed by 8.2% in 2026 and 9.2% in 2027, with a projected decline in net profit for 2025 before recovering in subsequent years [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading private aviation engine technology enterprise in China, focusing on both aviation power systems and new energy solutions, which are expected to drive growth [4][5]. - The company has established a comprehensive manufacturing capability for high-end components, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [8]. - Revenue and profit are projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 138.91 billion, 173.49 billion, and 208.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Aviation Power Systems - The company aims to be a leading service provider for small and medium-sized aviation power systems, leveraging its innovative technology and customer-oriented approach to overcome technical challenges and optimize its product offerings [4]. - It has developed five major aviation power platforms and over 20 engine and propeller products, achieving international certifications that enhance its market credibility [4]. New Energy Strategy - The company has implemented a dual-driven strategy in the new energy sector, focusing on electric drive systems, energy storage, and hydrogen energy, which are expected to interact positively with its traditional business [5][7]. - It has made significant advancements in electric drive technology and energy storage solutions, including customized products for various applications and expanding its global footprint [5][7]. High-End Manufacturing - The company has built a complete manufacturing process from raw materials to finished products, with significant production capacities in both casting and machining [8]. - It has established partnerships with leading domestic and international companies, enhancing its market presence and customer loyalty through high-quality delivery and continuous innovation [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts substantial revenue growth rates of 28.9%, 32.2%, 24.9%, and 20.4% from 2024 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 27.5%, 46.0%, 39.3%, and 28.1% respectively [9][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.40 yuan in 2024 to 1.05 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [9][12].

Core Insights - The report indicates a current market sentiment score of 72, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive market outlook and potential for upward movement in stock prices [4][10]. - Key themes identified include storage, energy metals, and stablecoins, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [5]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 72, indicating a "relatively hot" market environment. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [10][22]. - The report emphasizes that the recent improvement in market sentiment, supported by policy measures, is contributing to a bullish trend in the market [10]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Storage Theme**: Major manufacturers are phasing out DDR4 production, leading to a significant price increase of 53% in May, the largest since 2017. Relevant companies include Jiangbolong (301308) and Zhaoyi Innovation (603586) [5]. - **Energy Metals Theme**: The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended a temporary ban on cobalt exports due to high inventory levels. Companies of interest include Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) [5]. - **Stablecoins Theme**: The People's Bank of China discussed the transformation of monetary policy and the rise of digital currencies at the Lujiazui Forum, highlighting the impact of new technologies on cross-border payments. Companies mentioned include Sifang Jingchuang (300468) and Jingbeifang (002987) [5]. Major Capital Flows - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, including Tianyu Dike (300047) with a net inflow of 620.34 million and Rongfa Nuclear Power (002366) with 505.39 million [11]. - It also details the top ten stocks with net outflows, with Tianfu Communication (300394) showing the highest outflow of 677.41 million [13]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the top ten industries with net inflows, led by the computer sector with 226.86 million, followed by electric equipment and pharmaceutical industries [17]. - Conversely, the report notes the top ten industries with net outflows, with the communication sector experiencing the largest outflow of 211.63 million [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [11]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, which will support gold prices [5]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, supporting prices [11]. - Tin prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to weak supply and demand conditions, while antimony prices may stabilize due to supply constraints [11]. Summary by Sections Gold - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a potential interest rate cut within the year, which is expected to drive gold prices higher [5]. - Current gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation and employment rates [4]. Copper - Recent data shows a mixed performance in copper prices, with LME copper closing at $9,652 per ton, reflecting a 0.82% increase [38]. - Domestic copper inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential supply tightness [38]. - The report notes a decline in downstream operating rates, suggesting a weakening demand in the short term [8]. Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices are currently at 20,700 RMB per ton, with a slight decrease observed [39]. - The report highlights that while short-term demand may be weak, the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight [11]. - Operating rates in the aluminum sector are also showing signs of decline, particularly in construction-related applications [39]. Tin - The report indicates that domestic refined tin prices are at 263,070 RMB per ton, with a slight decrease noted [40]. - Supply and demand conditions are weak, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [10]. Antimony - Antimony prices are currently stable at 189,500 RMB per ton, with many smelting plants ceasing operations due to supply issues [11]. - The demand for antimony remains stable, particularly in the flame retardant and photovoltaic sectors [11]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in each sector, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining for gold; Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum for copper; and Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum for aluminum [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the industry and specific companies mentioned [9][50]. Core Insights - Huawei's release of the Pangu Model 5.5 is a significant advancement in AI, particularly in natural language processing (NLP) and multimodal capabilities, positioning it as a core driver for industry digital transformation [15][20]. - The MiniMax launch week introduced several models, including the MiniMax-M1, which is noted for its cost-effectiveness and performance, marking a competitive edge in the AI model landscape [26][30]. - The AI financing landscape is highlighted by Thinking Machines Lab's completion of a $2 billion seed round, indicating strong investor interest in innovative AI solutions [36][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Computing Power Dynamics - The report notes slight fluctuations in computing power rental prices, with specific rates for various configurations [14]. - Huawei's Pangu Model 5.5 was launched, featuring five foundational models aimed at enhancing industry intelligence [15][16]. 2. Application Dynamics - The average weekly traffic for Wenxin Yiyan increased by 4.08%, indicating growing user engagement [25]. - MiniMax's launch week featured the introduction of the MiniMax-M1 model and the Hailuo 02 video generation model, which achieved notable performance metrics [26][28]. 3. AI Financing Trends - Thinking Machines Lab secured $2 billion in seed funding, achieving a valuation of $10 billion, showcasing the potential for advanced AI technologies [36][38]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Jiahe Meikang, iFlytek, Cambricon, and others that are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and related technologies [49][50].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 33, indicating a "cold" market environment. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or around 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [6][10]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Storage Theme**: Major manufacturers are phasing out DDR4, with Micron confirming a halt in shipments over the next 2-3 quarters. In May, DDR4 prices surged by 53%, the highest increase since 2017. Related stocks include Jiangbolong (301308) and Zhaoyi Innovation (603586) [7]. - **Robotics Theme**: A new lower limb rehabilitation exoskeleton robot developed by the Shenyang Institute of Automation aims to assist patients with lower limb paralysis. This technology has shown effectiveness in achieving key rehabilitation goals. Related stocks include Zhenjiang Co. (603507) and Everbright Tongchuang (301387) [7]. - **Stablecoin Theme**: The Governor of the People's Bank of China discussed the transformation of monetary policy frameworks and the rise of digital currency stablecoins at the Lujiazui Forum. This development is reshaping traditional payment systems and poses challenges for financial regulation. Related stocks include Sifang Jingchuang (300468) and Jingbeifang (002987) [7]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include C Xinhenghui (49,492.23 million), Qiangli New Materials (46,294.02 million), and Chuanrun Co. (37,280.46 million) [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Shenghong Technology (-53,587.46 million), Zhongwen Online (-45,463.41 million), and Ningde Times (-43,949.98 million) [13]. - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include SW Medical Biology (77,676 million) and SW Food and Beverage (73,440 million), while SW Nonferrous Metals and SW Electric Equipment show significant outflows [17][18]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - In a "cold" market, it is advisable to seek value investment opportunities while maintaining risk control. In a "cool" market, cautious operations are recommended, focusing on fundamentally sound stocks and avoiding high-risk investments [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The trend of innovation going overseas remains unchanged, with significant business development (BD) opportunities expected to continue driving valuation increases [2] - The market for gout and hyperuricemia treatment presents substantial potential, with a growing patient population in China and globally [4] - The dual antibody and antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) sectors in tumor immunotherapy are anticipated to yield groundbreaking products [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The value reassessment of innovative drugs is significantly driven by overseas business development, particularly for PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies, with transaction values rapidly increasing [2] - In Q1 2025, the number of pharmaceutical transactions in China rose by 34% year-on-year, while total transaction value surged by 222% [2] 2. Market Opportunities - The American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference highlighted the focus on GLP-1 drugs, with several domestic companies showcasing their research [3] - The potential market for gout treatment is vast, with an estimated 1.7 billion patients globally by 2030, and current treatments showing poor adherence and efficacy [4] 3. Clinical Developments - Significant clinical data from the ADA conference is expected to influence the weight loss drug market, with partnerships and new drug developments being announced [3] - The report notes that several innovative drugs targeting gout are entering critical clinical phases, with promising results from recent studies [4] 4. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks in various sectors, including: - **Weight Loss and GLP-1 Drugs**: Recommended companies include Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and others [7] - **Gout Treatment**: Recommended companies include Changchun High-tech and Yipin Pharmaceutical [9] - **Tumor Immunotherapy**: Companies like Fuhong Hanlin and Innovent Biologics are highlighted for their advancements in PD-1 dual antibodies and ADCs [9] 5. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Yuyue Medical and others [10]

2025 年 06 月 22 日 先为不败再为胜 | 分析师：吕思江 | S1050522030001 | | --- | --- | | lvsj@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：马晨 | S1050522050001 | | machen@cfsc.com.cn | | 相关研究 3、《港股交投情绪低迷， 推荐关注豆粕 ETF》2025-01-13 —定量策略周观点总第 168 周 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点：上周仓位择时中，我们将美股、A 股、港股均 降为较低仓位。本周如期调整，更多理解为借事件扰动的 盈利兑现。先控制仓位，寻找中报基本面可能向好、底部 调整充分、拥挤度较低的板块，保证组合"不败"；再于 合适时间寻找进攻机会，寻求"胜利"。大类资产中，增 加长债和欧股、日股仓位。 美股：联储流动性方面小幅回落；降息预期方面， FOMC 没给市场提前交易降息的契机，第一次降息预期仍在 9 月。美股资金流向中，跨境资金本周流入较多，对冲基金 仓位仍保持多头买入但力度继续下行。板块中生物医药转 为空头信号，TMT、AI、金融、能源为多头信号。 日股：日本 5 月份全国新核心 CPI（不包括 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [9]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with total operating income reaching 1.293 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%, and a net profit of 141 million yuan, up 6.45% [4]. - The launch of Nintendo's Switch 2 has exceeded expectations, with sales surpassing 3.5 million units within four days, indicating a strong market demand [5]. - The company is actively pursuing a globalization strategy to mitigate domestic price competition, achieving foreign sales of 364 million yuan, a growth of 25.09% [4]. - The demand for high-end PCB products is expected to rise due to the increasing need for computing power driven by AI applications, positioning the company favorably in this emerging market [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 1.293 billion yuan and a net profit of 141 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 19.45% and 6.45% [4]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 1.854 billion yuan, 2.105 billion yuan, and 2.341 billion yuan, with EPS projected at 1.44 yuan, 1.71 yuan, and 1.96 yuan respectively [9][11]. Market Opportunities - The Switch 2's first-year sales are projected to reach 20 million units, which will benefit the company's PCB supply chain involvement [5]. - The company plans to invest 135 million yuan in a high-density interconnect (HDI) production technology upgrade project, expected to enhance its capabilities in high-end PCB manufacturing by Q1 2026 [8]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-end PCBs in AI-related applications, with plans to expand its product offerings in this sector [6][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing its product penetration in emerging fields, particularly in AI computing infrastructure [8].