Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing growth driven by its electric vehicle (EV) gears and intelligent actuators, with profitability continuing to improve [2][8]. - Revenue for 1H24 reached RMB 4.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with net profit at RMB 470 million, up 28.3% year-on-year [8][9]. - The company is expanding its product lines and enhancing market competitiveness, particularly in the EV sector and intelligent actuators [11][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 9.47 billion in 2024, RMB 10.90 billion in 2025, and RMB 12.49 billion in 2026, with net profit forecasts of RMB 1.06 billion, RMB 1.26 billion, and RMB 1.51 billion respectively [12][7]. - The gross margin for 1H24 was 22.7%, with a net profit margin of 11.4%, both showing year-on-year improvements [10][11]. - The company’s main business segments include passenger car gears (55% of revenue), commercial vehicle gears (11%), construction machinery gears (7%), and intelligent actuators (6%), with respective growth rates of +28.5%, +3.8%, -8.3%, and +82.2% [9][10]. Market Expansion and Product Development - The company is accelerating the construction of its Hungary factory to expand its overseas market presence, aiming to benefit from the transformation of traditional European car manufacturers [11][12]. - The intelligent actuator product line has been expanded to include applications in smart vehicles, aligning with automotive intelligence trends [11][12]. Valuation - The target price has been raised to RMB 29.80, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2025, up from a previous target of RMB 28.70 [12][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Cgn Nuclear Technology Development (000881 CH) Core Views - The company's profit loss narrowed year-on-year in 2024H1, with operating income of 2.828 billion yuan, a decline of 1.26% year-on-year, and a net loss of 86.5778 million yuan, an increase of 18.56% year-on-year [1][3] - The primary reasons for the continued loss include underperformance in the new materials business and losses from incubation period businesses, with the new materials business profit decreasing by 35 million yuan year-on-year [1][2] - The company successfully completed the proton therapy equipment manufacturing base, marking a significant milestone in domestic production capabilities [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024H1, the company reported operating income of 2.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.26%, and a net loss of 86.5778 million yuan, which is an increase of 18.56% year-on-year [1][3] - In Q2 2024, total operating income was 1.518 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.88%, but a year-on-year decline of 7.30% [1][3] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 13.69%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.49 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.69 percentage points [1][3] Business Segments - Electron accelerator and irradiation processing achieved operating income of 186 million yuan, an increase of 18.34% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 31.44% [2][3] - New materials segment reported operating income of 2.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, but with a gross profit margin of 9.44%, down 2.70 percentage points [2][3] - Import and export trade saw a significant decline in revenue, down 71.90% year-on-year, while ocean shipping revenue decreased by 5.10% year-on-year [2][3] Market Position and Growth - The company maintained a leading market share in the domestic industrial electron accelerator sector, with a 12.08% increase in sales contract value year-on-year [2][3] - New order volume in irradiation processing increased by 25.43% year-on-year, with over 100 new irradiation customers acquired [2][3] - The company has developed 12 special incremental products targeting blank markets in mature products, with significant growth in the "three new" market segment [2][3] Innovation and Development - In 2024H1, the company was granted 39 new invention patents and completed the construction of the proton therapy equipment manufacturing base, which is the first domestic commercial proton therapy system localization base [2][3] - The company is actively promoting the Yangtze River Delta Innovation Center for nuclear technology, focusing on key research projects such as proton medical equipment [2][3]

研究报告 Research Report 3 Sep 2024 中国食品饮料 China (A-share) Food & Beverage HTI 中国消费行业 9 月投资报告：多数白酒中报未分红，奶价拐点预计后移 Most Baijiu did not Pay Dividends in the Mid Report, the Inflection Point of Milk Price is Expected to Move Backward [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------|----------| | | | | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform | 燕京啤酒 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform | 重庆啤酒 | | 五粮液 | Outperform | 重庆啤酒 | | 五粮液 | Outperform | 安井食品 | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform | 口子窖 | | 海天味业 | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN, with a GDP of USD 1.37 trillion in 2023, accounting for 36% of the total ASEAN economy [2][7] - Domestic consumption is the main driver of economic growth, with consumption contributing approximately 63% to GDP [10][12] - The retail market in Indonesia reached USD 191.3 billion in 2023, with an expected CAGR of 11.1% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [26][30] Economic Overview - Indonesia's economic growth has been primarily driven by domestic demand, with a significant shift from the secondary to the tertiary sector post-Asian financial crisis [7][12] - The country has a population of 278 million, with a median age of 30.9 years, indicating a young and growing consumer base [19][20] - The government has been investing heavily in infrastructure, with a budget of IDR 423.4 trillion for 2024, aimed at improving connectivity and supporting economic growth [22] Consumption Trends - Per capita consumption expenditure in Indonesia increased from USD 1,870 in 2015 to USD 2,608 in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.2% [16][17] - The middle class is expanding rapidly, with 72 million middle-class individuals and 128 million new middle-class individuals, representing 26% and 47% of the total population, respectively [19][20] - The halal consumption market is significant, with Indonesia being home to the largest Muslim population globally, presenting vast opportunities for growth in this sector [25] Retail Channels - The retail market is characterized by a balanced distribution among traditional, modern, and e-commerce channels, with e-commerce growing the fastest at a CAGR of approximately 38% from 2018 to 2023 [26][30] - In 2023, traditional, modern, and e-commerce channels accounted for approximately 37%, 30%, and 32% of the retail market, respectively [30][31] - Government regulations are in place to maintain a balance between modern and traditional retail channels, impacting the growth dynamics of the retail sector [28][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Shanghai Pharma (2607 HK) with a target price of HKD 13.82, down 5.0% from previous estimates [3][5][17]. Core Insights - Shanghai Pharma's 1H24 results showed revenue of CNY 139.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a notable growth in the Contract Sales Organization (CSO) business, which achieved sales of CNY 4.0 billion, up 172% year-on-year [11][12]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment faced challenges, reporting a revenue decline of 13.4% year-on-year, primarily due to price reductions in products from SPH No.1 Biochemical & Pharmaceutical [12][14]. - The company successfully introduced 8 import varieties and added 15 new SPD projects in 1H24, contributing to its growth despite the overall industry pressure [11][12]. Revenue and Profitability - In 1H24, Shanghai Pharma's gross profit margin (GPM) was 11.6%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 2.94 billion, reflecting a 12.7% increase year-on-year [14][13]. - The report projects revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be CNY 277.8 billion, CNY 299.9 billion, and CNY 323.5 billion respectively, with growth rates of 6.7%, 8.0%, and 7.9% [16][17]. Accounts Receivable - As of 1H24, Shanghai Pharma's accounts receivable totaled CNY 80.9 billion, with a significant portion due within one year, indicating potential cash flow management challenges [15][4]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model using a WACC of 6.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, leading to the target price of HKD 13.82 [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Fufeng Group [3][12]. Core Insights - Profit attributable to shareholders for 2024H1 decreased by 32.3% year-on-year, with an interim dividend declared at 18 HK cents per share [8][12]. - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2024 decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to approximately RMB 13,368 million, primarily due to a decline in revenue from the Colloids and Others segment [8][12]. - Gross profit decreased by 22.3% year-on-year to RMB 2,298.1 million, mainly due to a decrease in gross profit from the Food Additives and Colloids segment [8][12]. Revenue Breakdown - In the Food Additives segment, revenue was RMB 6.917 billion, an increase of 5.46% year-on-year, with MSG revenue at RMB 5.262 billion, showing a price decrease of 13.8% and a volume increase of 22.2% [9][10]. - The Animal Nutrition segment saw revenue of RMB 4.195 billion, up 2.54% year-on-year, with Threonine revenue increasing by 29.9% to approximately RMB 1,149.3 million [9][10]. - The High-grade Amino Acids segment reported revenue of RMB 1.075 billion, a 29.96% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.8% [9][10]. - The Colloids segment experienced a revenue decline of 44.93% to RMB 899 million, with xanthan gum prices falling by 48.2% [9][10]. Export Performance - Export quantities of Threonine and 98% Lysine increased significantly, with 362,000 tonnes and 548,000 tonnes exported in the first half of 2024, representing increases of 43% and 24% year-on-year, respectively [10][11]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and plans to develop three overseas regional marketing centers, with a focus on establishing a plant in the US [11][12]. - Plans to accelerate the development of a new 98% Lysine production facility and introduce new premium amino acid products are underway [11][12]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 1.21, RMB 1.33, and RMB 1.48, respectively [12]. - The target price is set at HKD 6.51, based on a PE ratio of 4.95 times for 2024 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a focus on Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group as a top pick and suggests attention to other companies such as Suzhou Jinhong Gas, Guangdong Huate Gas, Xi'An Shaangu Power, Hunan Kaimeite Gases [12][13]. Core Insights - In August, the average prices for liquid oxygen and nitrogen increased, while liquid argon prices decreased. Specifically, liquid oxygen averaged RMB 437 per ton (up 2.1% MoM, down 18.56% YoY), and liquid nitrogen averaged RMB 485 per ton (up RMB 40.1 per ton MoM, down RMB 60.79 per ton YoY) [9][10]. - The weekly operating load rate for China's industrial gas sector was reported at 67.21%, reflecting a decrease of 0.28 percentage points MoM [11]. - Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group achieved ExxonMobil's global supplier qualification certification and secured a gas operation contract with Fangda Special Steel Technology, which includes the acquisition of air separation assets and the construction of new air separation units [12][13]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 28, 2024, liquid oxygen prices were RMB 400.88 per ton (down 5.63% MoM, down 20.7% YoY), liquid nitrogen at RMB 454 per ton (down 4.7% MoM, down 17% YoY), and liquid argon at RMB 629 per ton (down 2.02% MoM, down 40.51% YoY) [10]. - Rare gases showed similar trends, with helium prices for bulk 40L bottles averaging RMB 691.07 (down RMB 2.57 MoM, down RMB 535.67 YoY) and xenon at RMB 32,714.29 per cubic meter (down RMB 1,700 MoM, down RMB 25,600 YoY) [10]. Operational Metrics - The industrial gas sector's weekly operating load rate was noted at 67.21%, indicating a slight decline from the previous period [11]. Company Developments - Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group's recent achievements include passing ExxonMobil's supplier qualification and acquiring significant air separation assets from Fangda Special Steel Technology, which will enhance its operational capacity [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price adjusted to HKD 67.8 per share [9][17]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics reported strong revenue growth in H1 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 39.5 billion, a 46.3% increase year-on-year, and product revenue of RMB 38.1 billion, up 55.1% [3][14]. - The company's gross margin improved to 82.9%, reflecting operational efficiency enhancements, while R&D expenses increased by 51.6% to RMB 14.0 billion, accounting for 35.4% of revenue [3][14]. - The report highlights the successful sales performance of key products, including Tyvyt (PD-1 inhibitor) and several biosimilars, contributing to the revenue growth [4][14]. Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported a net loss of RMB 3.9 billion, compared to a loss of RMB 1.4 billion in the same period last year [3][14]. - Adjusted LBITDA for the period was RMB 1.6 billion, a decrease of 39.9% from RMB 2.7 billion in the previous year [3][14]. - As of June 30, 2024, the company had cash and short-term financial assets totaling RMB 101.1 billion [3][14]. Product Pipeline and Growth Potential - The oncology pipeline is rich with catalysts, including the recent NMPA approval of Fulzerasib (KRAS G12C) and expected approval of IBI344 (ROS1) in H2 2024 [5][15]. - Upcoming clinical data updates for several early-stage products are anticipated, including IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2 α-bias) and IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC) [5][15]. - The non-oncology field is also progressing, with NDA submissions for Mazdutide (GLP-1R/GCGR) and Teprotumumab (IGF-1R) expected to bolster future revenue [5][16]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 78.6 billion, RMB 102.5 billion, and RMB 133.9 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 30.3%, and 30.7% [9][17]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability by 2026, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 760 million [9][17].

Market Observation - Japan's stock market showed resilience this week, with the Nikkei 225 closing at 38,647.75, up 0.7% week-over-week, and the TOPIX closing at 2,712.63, up 1.04% [1][14] - After a sharp sell-off at the beginning of the month due to rapid unwinding of carry trades, both major indices have recovered most of their losses by the end of August [1][14] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda expressed confidence in achieving a sustainable 2% inflation rate, indicating that the central bank will continue its normalization of monetary policy as long as economic and inflation data meet expectations [1][2] Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core CPI for August was 2.4%, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month [2] - Nationwide retail sales in July rose by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the 29th consecutive month of positive growth [2] - The recent appreciation of the yen is expected to alleviate the burden on domestic consumers caused by previous currency depreciation, alongside rising overall household income, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic consumption [2] Company Updates - **Toyota** announced a plan to repurchase its own shares worth 806.8 billion yen, equivalent to 2% of its outstanding shares, as part of a broader trend among Japanese companies to reduce cross-shareholdings [8] - **Rakuten** reported significant improvements in its wireless operations, with a net addition of 300,000 users in the first half of the year, leading to a strong stock performance [10] - **Sony** will increase the price of its PS5 console in Japan by 19% due to rising component and manufacturing costs, which is expected to improve overseas revenue and reduce resale activities by tourists [11] - **Seven & i** is evaluating a takeover bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard, which could become one of the largest acquisitions of a Japanese company by a foreign entity, potentially boosting the yen's value [12] - **SBI Holdings** plans to invest 10 billion yen in AI startup Preferred, aiming to collaborate on the commercialization of next-generation AI semiconductors [13] Sector Performance - The overall TOPIX index returned 1.0% this week, with notable sector performances including Industrials at 2.2% and Consumer Discretionary also at 2.2% [7] - The Information Technology sector showed a modest return of 0.3%, while Financials experienced a decline of 0.4% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for MINISO Group (MNSO US) with a target price of USD 25.40, down from a previous target of USD 31.30 [2][6]. Core Insights - MINISO reported solid performance in Q2 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 4.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%. The gross profit margin (GPM) hit a record high of 43.9%, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to implement a share repurchase program with a maximum limit of HKD 2 billion over the next 12 months and declared an interim dividend of RMB 620 million, approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the first half of the year [4][10]. - Domestic revenue was RMB 2.53 billion, up 18% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached RMB 1.51 billion, up 35% year-on-year [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 17.3 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 25.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be RMB 2.82 billion, RMB 3.47 billion, and RMB 4.14 billion [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 625 million, a 9% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5% [10]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio increased to 20.5%, up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the general and administrative expense ratio was 5.6%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Store Expansion and Market Dynamics - As of June 30, 2024, MINISO had 4,115 domestic stores, with a net increase of 81 stores in the quarter. The overseas store count reached 2,753, with a net increase of 157 stores [4][10]. - The company’s O2O (Online to Offline) business grew nearly 80% year-on-year, supporting same-store sales recovery to 98.3% of the previous year's levels [4][10]. - The report highlights that the direct sales market remains a key growth driver, with a 79% year-on-year increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) for direct sales [10].