[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 轻工制造 2024年04月28日 轻工制造 周观点：Q1 业绩陆续披露，布局超预期 背后的确定性 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001  家居：Q1业绩陆续出炉，不同企业Q1业绩分化，整体基本面仍良好，底部布局 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn Q1 绩优标的。从地产数据看，24 年 3 月房屋住宅新开工面积同比增速、商品房 住宅销售面积同比增速、房屋住宅竣工面积同比增速分别为-28.7%、-23.4%、- 研究助理 11.7%，地产销售降幅收窄，但新房销售仍偏弱，从销售到竣工传导链条看，整 体竣工将仍有压力，短期看仍会压制板块估值；从社零数据看，家具类零售额同 比+3.0%，反映出家居消费仍有韧性；从 Q1 业绩看，慕思股份、瑞尔特 24Q1 营收同比增速分别为+25%、+32%，归母净利润同比增速分别为+39%、+47%， 市场表现 呈现普遍增长韧性；展望后市，我们认为受地产情绪影响板块估值前期已处于历 轻工制造 沪深300 史底部，虽然地产销售仍 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 轻工制造 2024年04月28日 轻工制造 周观点：Q1 业绩陆续披露，布局超预期 背后的确定性 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001  家居：Q1业绩陆续出炉，不同企业Q1业绩分化，整体基本面仍良好，底部布局 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn Q1 绩优标的。从地产数据看，24 年 3 月房屋住宅新开工面积同比增速、商品房 住宅销售面积同比增速、房屋住宅竣工面积同比增速分别为-28.7%、-23.4%、- 研究助理 11.7%，地产销售降幅收窄，但新房销售仍偏弱，从销售到竣工传导链条看，整 体竣工将仍有压力，短期看仍会压制板块估值；从社零数据看，家具类零售额同 比+3.0%，反映出家居消费仍有韧性；从 Q1 业绩看，慕思股份、瑞尔特 24Q1 营收同比增速分别为+25%、+32%，归母净利润同比增速分别为+39%、+47%， 市场表现 呈现普遍增长韧性；展望后市，我们认为受地产情绪影响板块估值前期已处于历 轻工制造 沪深300 史底部，虽然地产销售仍 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024年04月28日 主流企业业绩亮眼，加大重视 食品饮料 低估值核心资产 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 食品饮料行业周报 20240422-20240426 熊鹏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn  白酒：财报业绩亮眼，建议加大低估值核心资产的重视。本周多家白酒上市公司年 报和一季报业绩披露，多数酒企业绩符合预期，部分公司有超预期表现，白酒行业 市场表现 基本面无虞。我们春节以来提出2024年白酒主线是千元价格带，全年维度首推泸 州老窖、五粮液，当前位置我们认为可以加大重视。当前白酒龙头公司估值低位， 食品饮料 沪深300 24 年老窖、五粮液估值均为 17X，在业绩高增较为确定背景下，老窖五粮液均明 6% 确表示提升分红率，核心资产低估值+高增长确定+分红率提升，建议加大白酒板块 0% 重视程度。全年维度，我们重点推荐千元价格带，推荐泸州老窖、五粮液、山西汾 -6% 酒，其他推荐今世缘、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒，重点关注顺鑫农业、珍酒李渡等反转 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 |行业周报 传媒 2024年04月28日 传媒互联网行业周报：中宣部制 传媒 定版权产业发展指导；24 年 4 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 月下发 95 款国产游戏版号 马笑 资格编号：S0120522100002 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 邮箱：maxiao＠tebon.com.cn 投资组合：腾讯控股、网易、恺英网络、上海电影、三七互娱、神州泰岳、吉比特、  姚记科技、汤姆猫、快手、芒果超媒、皖新传媒、百度集团、美团、分众传媒等。 研究助理  投资主题：游戏，AI和VR，教育，短剧，影视动漫，广告，数据要素等。 王梅卿  受益标的：港股海外公司阿里巴巴-SW、京东集团-SW、拼多多、爱奇艺、移卡、 邮箱：wangmq＠tebon.com.cn 阅文集团、美图公司、哔哩哔哩-W、猫眼娱乐、泡泡玛特、云音乐、祖龙娱乐、中 手游、心动公司、东方甄选、巨星传奇等；A股主要有慈文传媒、掌阅科技、三人 市场表现 行、万达电影、浙数文化、电广传媒，南方传媒，中文传媒、电魂网络、冰川网络、 中文在线、昆仑万维、万兴科技、游族网络、力盛体育、遥望科技、东方时 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2024年04月28日 有色金属周报：贵金属短期回 有色金属 落，高通胀下不改长期趋势 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002  本周核心关注美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数季调后环比加速。美国第一季度核 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 心 PCE 物价指数季调后环比折年率初值为 3.7%，预估为 3.4%，前值为 2.0%， 张崇欣 一年来首次环比加速。 资格编号：S0120522100003 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn  下周重要数据发布: 4月30日（周二09:30）中国4月官方制造业PMI；5月2日 高嘉麒 （周四02:00）美国联邦基金目标利率；5月3日（周五20:30）美国4月失业率： 资格编号：S0120523070003 季调。 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn  贵金属：黄金小幅回调。本周，COMEX黄金期货收盘价（活跃合约）跌2.6%， 研究助理 COMEX银期货收盘价（活跃合约）跌4.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant investment in water conservancy projects, with a record completion of 193.3 billion yuan in Q1, marking a 4.4% year-on-year increase [5][54] - The energy sector is seeing a shift towards green energy, with initiatives in Jilin province focusing on hydrogen energy and green electricity as key growth areas [5][55] - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition to low-carbon energy structures during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with rapid growth expected in wind and solar power installations [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes mixed performance across sectors, with the Shenwan (2021) utility index down 1.1% and the environmental index up 1.2% [5][16] - Within the utility sector, gas saw a significant decline of 3.2%, while the environmental sector's monitoring and detection instruments rose by 5.5% [5][17] Industry Dynamics - In Q1, water conservancy investment reached 193.3 billion yuan, the highest for the same period historically, with a total of 23,500 projects implemented [5][54] - The National Energy Administration reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in total installed power generation capacity, with solar power capacity growing by 55% [5][51] - Jilin province is developing green electricity and hydrogen energy industries, aiming to create several large-scale green energy industrial parks [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, highlighting companies like Guolin Technology and Beijiete as key investment opportunities [7] - It suggests paying attention to companies involved in renewable energy and storage solutions, such as China Nuclear Power and Huadian Heavy Industries [7] Natural Gas Market Update - The report indicates a 5.9% year-on-year increase in natural gas production in early 2024, with significant growth in coalbed methane and LNG production [6][45] - The domestic LNG price index rose by 2.22% week-on-week, reflecting increasing demand [30] Carbon Market Overview - The national carbon market saw a total transaction volume of 2.46 billion yuan, with a weekly trading volume of 1.26 billion yuan [23]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 计算机 2024年04月28日 计算机 海外算力与国产算力共振 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004  AI推动海外云巨头业绩超预期。近期，海外云巨头发布最新季报，充分展示AI投 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 资对业绩的积极作用。谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度总营收805.4亿美元，同比增 长15%，高于市场预期的790.4亿美元，净利润同比跃升57%至236.6亿美元， 研究助理 高于预期的189.5亿美元。其中，云业务收入同比增长28.4%至95.7亿美元，高 于分析师预期的93.7亿美元。在AI的驱动下，微软当季财报关键指标和各项业务 全面超预期，其中整体微软云收入同比增23%至351亿美元，智能云收入增21% 至267亿美元，Azure收入逐季加速增长。Meta在2024Q1营收与净利润也均取 市场表现 得亮眼成绩，实现营收364.55亿美元，同比增长27%，高于预期；净利润为123.69 计算机 沪深300 亿美元，同比大增117% ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 山煤国际(600546.SH) 2024年04月28日 山煤国际：量价齐跌业绩承 买入（维持） 所属行业：煤炭 压，分红提升凸显配置价值 当前价格(元)：14.19 证券分析师 投资要点 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 事件：公司发布2024年度一季度业绩报告。公司一季度实现营业收入63.56亿，  邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 同比-40.31%；归母净利润5.83亿元，同比-65.81%；扣非归母净利润6.03亿元， 薛磊 同比-65.44%。 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 价格&成本：价格回落，成本略增。1）价格方面，2024年一季度公司煤炭综合售  研究助理 价667.17元/吨，同比-21.33%；其中自产煤售价662.31元/吨，贸易煤售价674.09 元/吨。2）成本方面，2024年一季度公司煤炭综合成本448.21元/吨，同比+0.38%； 谢佶圆 其中自产煤成本308.37元/吨，贸易煤成本647.44元/吨。 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control despite a decline in coal production and sales, with a focus on future growth opportunities [4] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing projects and capacity expansions, which will contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.363 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, and a net profit of 1.59 billion, down 24.7% [4] - The coal business saw a production volume of 5.2364 million tons, a decrease of 7.73%, and sales volume of 4.0261 million tons, down 21.08% [4] - The average selling price of coal was 1,178 yuan per ton, down 15.1%, while the cost per ton was 593 yuan, down 16.92% [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company has several projects in progress, including the Inner Mongolia Taoqitu coal mine expected to start production by the end of 2025 with a designed capacity of 8 million tons per year [4] - The company is also advancing its methanol comprehensive utilization project, which is expected to begin production in June 2024 with a capacity of 600,000 tons per year [4] - A new power generation project in Huai Bei City is planned, with an estimated total investment of 5.261 billion, projected to generate an average annual profit of 196 million [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 76.6 billion, 81.5 billion, and 86.9 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 6.4 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.0 billion [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.39, 2.42, and 2.60 for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.49, 7.37, and 6.87 [5][6]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Revenue and performance in 2023 met expectations, with a significant increase in prepayments likely driven by the price hike of Qinghua 20 [2] - Strong mid-to-high-end consumption during the Spring Festival, with a notable product structure in Q1 2024 [2] - Synchronous development in both domestic and external markets in 2023, with faster growth in external markets in Q1 2024 [2] - Profitability optimization driven by gross margin improvement or sales expense ratio reduction [3] - Continued deepening of marketing reforms, solid market foundation, and accelerated channel expansion in 2023 [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue and net profit were RMB 31,928 million and RMB 10,438 million, up 21.80% and 28.93% YoY respectively [2] - Q1 2024 revenue and net profit were RMB 15,338 million and RMB 6,262 million, up 20.94% and 29.95% YoY respectively [2] - Gross margin and net margin in 2023 were 75.31% and 32.76%, with a slight decrease in gross margin and an increase in net margin [3] - Q1 2024 gross margin and net margin were 77.46% and 40.86%, up 1.90pcts and 2.75pcts YoY respectively [3] Market and Product Structure - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2023 was RMB 23,203 million, up 22.56% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 8,540 million, up 20.15% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was RMB 11,860 million, up 24.90% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 3,436 million, up 9.88% YoY [2] - Domestic revenue in 2023 was RMB 12,084 million, up 20.41% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 19,659 million, up 22.84% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 domestic revenue was RMB 5,597 million, up 11.44% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 9,700 million, up 27.61% YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: RMB 38,902 million, RMB 46,773 million, and RMB 56,142 million [3] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: RMB 13,284 million, RMB 16,370 million, and RMB 19,994 million [3] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026: 23.2x, 18.8x, and 15.4x [3] Analyst Background - Xiong Peng, head of DBS Securities' consumer group and chief analyst for the food and beverage industry, with 6 years of industry research experience [6]