策略研究 周度报告 科技是否迎来主线契机，哪些消费行业尚未轮动？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-04-13 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略周报《关税加征能否改变市场 结构？—20250406 第 14 周》2025-04- 06 2.策略月报《风起浪动—2025 年 4 月 A 股市场研判及配置机会》2025-03-30 3.策略周报《历年二季度哪些板块容 易出现行情？—20250323 第 12 周》 4.策略周报《消费主线是否迎来机 会？—20250316 第 11 周》 主要观点 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@h ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The essence of the tariff war is a technology war, with the goal of maintaining U.S. dominance in the global economic system. China is encouraged to accelerate technological innovation and build a self-controlled industrial chain to overcome external pressures [4][5] - The semiconductor industry is seeing a push for domestic alternatives, particularly in the context of U.S. export controls on chips. This trend is expected to accelerate in areas such as wafer foundry, analog chip design, and power devices [4][5] - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $117 billion in 2024, reflecting a 10% increase from 2023, driven by investments in advanced technologies and capacity expansion in China [26][27] Summary by Sections Industry News - The global PC shipment in Q1 2025 reached 62.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with Lenovo leading the market [11] - The adoption rate of in-car wireless charging systems has surpassed 50% globally, with significant growth expected in the Chinese market [19][20] Market Performance Review - From April 7 to April 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, while the ShenZhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 5.13% and 6.73%, respectively. The Shenwan Electronics Index decreased by 3.89% [31] - The best-performing sector was analog chip design, with a rise of 6.04%, while printed circuit boards saw a decline of 10.16% [31] Company Performance - The top five performing stocks for the week included Kaide Quartz and Shengbang Co., while GQY Vision and Liyade performed poorly [51] - Year-to-date, the best performers included Chipone Technology and Kaide Quartz, while Guoxing Optoelectronics and Shengyi Technology lagged behind [51]

[Table_IndNameRptType] 电子 行业周报 电子行业周报：构建自主可控产业链，关税战的本质是科技战 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期：2025-04-13 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 电子(申万) 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈耀波 执业证书号：S0010523060001 邮箱：chenyaobo@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：李美贤 执业证书号：S0010524020002 邮箱：limeixian@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：刘志来 执业证书号：S0010523120005 邮箱：liuzhilai@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：李元晨 执业证书号：S0010524070001 邮箱：liyc@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 本周行情回顾 从指数表现来看，本周（2025-04 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.70%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.98% to 177 million yuan. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 32.62% year-on-year, with a net profit of -30 million yuan, down 321.33% [5][7] - New orders continue to grow, with a total of 1.786 billion yuan in new orders signed in 2024, an increase of 18.74% year-on-year, and a cumulative backlog of 3.273 billion yuan, up 27.57% [5] - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 172 million yuan in 2024, a 39.02% increase, accounting for 15.94% of revenue. The company has over 430 R&D projects, with more than 89 new self-research projects initiated [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.70%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 177 million yuan, down 3.98%. The fourth quarter revenue was 162 million yuan, a decline of 32.62%, and the net profit was -30 million yuan, a decrease of 321.33% [5][10] Business Segments - The revenue from pharmaceutical research services in 2024 was 559 million yuan, down 1.74%, with a gross margin of 61.37%. The clinical trial and bioanalysis business generated 512 million yuan, up 41.19%, with a gross margin of 31.17%. Revenue from equity sharing was 6.5336 million yuan [5] R&D Investment - The company has increased its R&D expenses to 172 million yuan in 2024, a 39.02% increase, representing 15.94% of total revenue. The company has over 430 R&D projects, with significant progress in clinical trials for various indications [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 1.290 billion yuan, 1.513 billion yuan, and 1.781 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 17.3%, and 17.7% respectively. Net profit projections for the same period are 213 million yuan, 256 million yuan, and 304 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.3%, 20.0%, and 18.7% respectively [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.62 billion yuan, up 10.1% year-on-year [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in the AI wave, leveraging its technology, customer relationships, and production capacity to capitalize on the growing demand in the consumer electronics market [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of AI features in consumer electronics, with global AI smartphone shipments projected to reach 16% of total smartphone shipments in 2024, growing to 54% by 2028 [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.5% [5]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 21.4%, showing a slight decline compared to previous periods, while total expenses decreased significantly due to positive financial income [5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 4.19 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 5.00 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.81 yuan, 1.99 yuan, and 2.16 yuan [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the market benchmark by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.62 billion yuan, up 10.1% year-on-year [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in the AI wave, leveraging its technology, customer relationships, and production capacity to capture opportunities in the consumer electronics market [5][6]. - The global economic recovery and domestic policies are expected to drive demand for smartphones and consumer electronics, supporting the company's short-term performance [5]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.5% [5]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 21.4%, showing a slight decline compared to previous periods, while total expenses decreased significantly due to positive financial income [5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 4.19 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 5.00 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.81 yuan, 1.99 yuan, and 2.16 yuan [8][10]. Market Outlook - The report cites Canalys' prediction that AI smartphone shipments will account for 16% of total smartphone shipments in 2024, increasing to 54% by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 63% [6]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upgrade of 800G/1.6T optical modules and aims to expand its SLP product offerings in the AI sector [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 255 million yuan, a significant increase of 399.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is experiencing a decline in quarterly performance, with Q4 2024 revenue at 570 million yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year and 27.8% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the exit from low-margin products and customer inventory adjustments [5][6] - The gross margin for 2024 improved to 30.4%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 33.5%, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [6] - The company is expanding its market presence in consumer electronics, industrial interconnect, and automotive electronics, with a 17% increase in customer numbers and a 45% growth in new markets [6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 26.6% for 2025 [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 400 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57% [9] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 1.72 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 36.6 [7][9] - The company anticipates continued improvement in gross margin, reaching 33.2% in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 255 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 399.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is experiencing a decline in quarterly performance, with Q4 2024 revenue at 570 million yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year and 27.8% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 77 million yuan, down 51.6% year-on-year and 10.9% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The gross margin for 2024 improved to 30.4%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 33.5%, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, with high-performance mixed-signal chips contributing 1.39 billion yuan (up 10.9%), power management chips 1.05 billion yuan (up 15.2%), and signal chain chips 490 million yuan (up 40.9%) [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 400 million, 607 million, and 803 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.72, 2.61, and 3.45 yuan per share [7] Market Outlook - The company is expanding into new markets, with a 17% increase in customer numbers and a 45% growth in new markets in 2024, focusing on providing algorithm + hardware + system solutions [6] - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue performance in Q1 2025 due to the rollout of national subsidies for mobile phones and the launch of new customer devices [5] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 36.6, 24.1, and 18.3 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings grow [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Dynamic Two-Step GMM Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model is designed to evaluate the impact of narrative-related disclosures on firm value while addressing endogeneity issues through dynamic panel data estimation [30][47] **Model Construction Process**: The model specification is as follows: $ Q_{ijt} = \beta_0 + \beta_1 Q_{ijt-1} + \beta_2 Tone_{ijt} + \beta_3 FLS_{ijt} + \beta_4 CS_{ijt} + \beta_5 CEO_{ijt} + \beta_6 Firm_{ijt} + \beta_7 BE_{ijt} + \epsilon_{ijt} $ - $ Q_{ijt} $ represents Tobin's Q for firm $ i $ in province $ j $ at time $ t $ - $ Tone_{ijt} $, $ FLS_{ijt} $, and $ CS_{ijt} $ are narrative-related disclosure variables (Tone, Forward-Looking Statements, Complexity) - $ CEO_{ijt} $ includes CEO characteristics such as age, gender, experience, and education - $ Firm_{ijt} $ includes firm-specific characteristics like age, size, and leverage - $ BE_{ijt} $ represents business environment quality variables The model uses dynamic two-step GMM estimation to address endogeneity issues, with Hansen-J test results confirming the validity of instruments [30][47][48] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the relationship between narrative disclosures and firm value, providing robust insights into the impact of tone, forward-looking statements, and complexity [48][51] Narrative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Tone **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the overall sentiment conveyed in annual reports, focusing on positive, negative, and neutral tones [31][37] **Factor Construction Process**: - Sentences in annual reports are classified into positive, negative, or neutral categories using a dictionary-based approach and Naive Bayes algorithm - Positive sentences are assigned a value of 1, negative sentences -1, and neutral sentences 0 - The overall tone is calculated using the formula: $ TONE_{ii} = \frac{1}{K} \sum_{k=1}^{K} tone_{kii} $ - $ tone_{kii} $ represents the sentiment of sentence $ k $ in firm $ i $'s report - $ K $ is the total number of sentences in the report [37][38][39] **Factor Evaluation**: Tone is a significant positive driver of firm value, reflecting management optimism and investor confidence [48][51] - **Factor Name**: Forward-Looking Statements (FLS) **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures future-oriented information in annual reports, indicating strategic vision and growth potential [39][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - Sentences containing future-related keywords are identified using a dictionary-based filtering method - The overall FLS score is calculated using the formula: $ FLS_{it} = \frac{1}{S} \sum_{s=1}^{S} fls_{kit} $ - $ fls_{kit} $ represents the presence of forward-looking statements in sentence $ k $ - $ S $ is the total number of sentences in the report [41][42] **Factor Evaluation**: FLS positively impacts firm value by enhancing investor confidence in the company's strategic direction [51][54] - **Factor Name**: Complexity of Statements (CS) **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the readability and complexity of annual reports, focusing on the potential impact on investor understanding [43][44] **Factor Construction Process**: - Complexity is measured using the Fog Index: $ Fog Index = 0.4 \times (Average \ words \ per \ sentence + Percentage \ of \ complex \ words) $ - Complex words are defined as technical terms frequently used in financial reporting [44][46] **Factor Evaluation**: Complexity generally has a weak negative impact on firm value, as overly complex disclosures may hinder investor understanding [52][62] Model Backtesting Results - **Dynamic Two-Step GMM Model**: - Tone coefficient: 0.4133 (significant positive impact) [50] - FLS coefficient: 0.0315 (significant positive impact) [50] - CS coefficient: -0.0095 (weak negative impact) [50] Factor Backtesting Results - **Tone**: - Tobin's Q: Positive impact (coefficient 0.4133) [50] - EPS: Positive impact (coefficient 0.8272) [60] - Cash Holding: Positive impact (coefficient 0.0258) [60] - **Forward-Looking Statements (FLS)**: - Tobin's Q: Positive impact (coefficient 0.0315) [50] - Operating Cash Flow: Positive impact (coefficient 0.0043) [60] - **Complexity of Statements (CS)**: - Tobin's Q: Weak negative impact (coefficient -0.0095) [50] - ROA: Weak negative impact (coefficient -0.0046) [60]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The offshore wind project in Jiangsu has commenced full construction, indicating a positive sentiment in the wind energy sector [4][18] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a "small spring" due to price increases in N-type products driven by installation rushes [6][12] - The energy storage market is seeing significant activity with a total of 38.1GWh of storage tenders completed in March 2025, indicating robust demand [23][25] - Hydrogen energy policies are being strengthened, focusing on the development of hydrogen applications in transportation [33][34] - The State Grid's investment in power grid construction has increased by 27.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking a historical high for the first quarter [36][37] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - N-type silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules have seen price increases due to installation rushes, with expectations of continued price stability into Q2 2025 [6][12][16] - The overall photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in fundamentals and policy expectations, approaching a right-side startup phase [17] Wind Power - The domestic wind power installation for 2024 is projected at 79.82GW, a 5% increase from 2023, with significant contributions from offshore projects [18][22] - The market sentiment is shifting positively due to the commencement of major offshore wind projects, with specific attention on tower and cable segments [18] Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is experiencing a surge in activity, with significant tenders and competitive pricing for storage systems and components [23][25] - Policies are being implemented to encourage the construction of peak-shaving storage facilities and distributed photovoltaic systems [25] Hydrogen Energy - The government is promoting hydrogen energy projects, with 20 hydrogen projects included in the national green low-carbon technology demonstration project list [33] - Beijing is focusing on the full hydrogen energy industry chain development, particularly in transportation applications [34] Power Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment in power grid construction has reached a historical high, with plans for 28 ultra-high voltage projects in the coming years [36][37] - The investment climate for power grid equipment remains strong, with recommendations to focus on undervalued companies in this sector [37]