Investment Rating - The report maintains a target price of HKD 8.00 for SANY International, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current price of HKD 6.41 [2]. Core Insights - SANY International is expected to report exciting results for Q1 2024, despite a projected year-on-year net profit decline of approximately 15% due to various challenges, including decreased domestic coal production and intense competition in certain product lines [1]. - A recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by improvements in the solar business and strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and telescopic handlers [1]. - The mining equipment segment is under pressure, with a forecasted revenue decline of about 15% due to decreased sales of coal mining equipment and a slowdown in the sales of wide-body trucks [1]. - Logistics equipment revenue is expected to grow by approximately 25% year-on-year, supported by significant growth in small port machinery and a backlog of large machinery orders [1]. - The solar power segment is currently in a loss-making phase, but potential project completions may help mitigate future losses [1]. Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, the expected net profit is around RMB 550 million, reflecting a 15% decrease year-on-year, while total revenue is projected to grow by about 4% [1][17]. - The report outlines a steady increase in revenue from RMB 20,278 million in 2023 to RMB 26,717 million in 2024E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [17]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decline due to competitive pressures in the mining equipment sector and increased operational costs in emerging businesses [1][17]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a performance of 24.2% over the past month and a decline of 31.7% over the past six months [4]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.2x in 2021 to 6.2x in 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [2][17]. Key Assumptions - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue projections across various segments, including mining trucks, logistics equipment, and solar power, highlighting expected growth rates and market dynamics [15][17].

2024 年 5 月 14 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 TME (TME US) 1Q24 得益于强劲的音乐业务增长和 GPM 扩张 目标价格(上一个 US $16.00 TME 公布了第 1 季度的业绩 ： 由于在线音乐收入强劲增长，总收入同比下降 3 ％，至 67.7 亿元 TP上行 / 下行当 US $12.50) 人民币，超出了普遍预期的 3 ％ ； 非 IFRS 净收入同比增长 21 ％，至 17.0 亿元人民币，比普遍 前价格 19.9% 预期高出 7 ％，主要归因于 GPM 的强劲增长 （ 同比增长 7.9 个百分点 ） 和运营支出的有效控制 13.34 美元 （ 同比增长 8 ％ ） 。TME 凭借其强大的现金产生能力进一步提高了股东的回报，并宣布其首个年 中国互联网 度现金股息为每 ADS 0.137 美元 （ 股息收益率为 c.0 ％ ） 。展望未来，我们预计总收入将同比下 Saiyi He, CFA 降 2%，而非 IFRS 净收入将在第二季度增长 20%，原因是音乐收入的强劲增长和 GPM 的扩张。 (852) 3916 1739 我们将 FY24 - 26 ...

半导体设备制造行业是一个周期性行业，该行业在2023年的销售额为1,060亿美元，约占半导体市场总销售额 （5,270亿美元）的20%。展望2024年，我们认为AI需求将会持续拉动半导体基础设施的投资和相关设备的购 买。同时，存储需求的复苏以及支持边缘计算的电子产品的陆续推出，将带动全球半导体市场销售额增长，最 终推动对半导体设备的投资。据SEMI预测，全球半导体设备市场销售额在未来两年的增速为3%和18%。 对于中国而言，半导体国产替代、自主可控将是长期趋势。得益于国家政策和补贴的支持、产业研发的突破， 以及下游国产替代强劲的需求驱动，中国半导体设备行业将迎来蓬勃发展，整个行业正逐步走向正循环轨道。 我们看好半导体设备板块的长期发展：一方面，海外行业龙头将继续保持领先地位；另一方面，中国设备供应 商因国产替代、自主可控对需求的拉动，将会迎来更高的收入增长和份额提升。 我们相信一众中国半导体设备厂商都将是受益者，如北方华创（002371 CH，买入）、中微公司（688012 CH，未评级）与盛美半导体（688082 CH，未评级）等。其中，我们最为看好北方华创 (002371 CH)。公 司是中国领先的半导体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company, with a target price raised to US$16.00 from US$12.50 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3% year-over-year decline in total revenue to RMB6.77 billion for 1Q24, but this was 3% above consensus estimates, driven by strong online music revenue growth [2]. - Non-IFRS net income increased by 21% year-over-year to RMB1.70 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 7%, primarily due to gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 7.9 percentage points year-over-year and effective operating expense control [2]. - The company announced its first annual cash dividend of US$0.137 per ADS, representing approximately a 1.0% dividend yield [2]. Revenue and Profitability - Online music revenue surged by 43% year-over-year to RMB5.01 billion in 1Q24, accounting for 74% of total revenue, with music subscription revenue growing by 39% year-over-year [2][11]. - The GPM improved to 40.9% in 1Q24, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, supported by strong growth in music subscription and advertising businesses [2][11]. - The report forecasts a 2% year-over-year decline in total revenue for 2Q24, while non-IFRS net income is expected to grow by 20% [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB28.83 billion in FY24, with a gross margin of 42.4% and adjusted net profit of RMB7.44 billion [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to grow to RMB10.39 billion by FY26, with a gross margin increasing to 44.7% [3][9]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the adjusted net profit margin, expected to reach 29.7% by FY26 [9][10]. Shareholder Returns - The company has enhanced shareholder returns through the announcement of an annual dividend and share repurchases, with 6.9 million ADS repurchased for US$61 million in 1Q24 [2][12]. - The total amount for the announced dividend is US$210 million, which is about 1.0% of the market capitalization [2]. Market Performance - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$20.56 billion, with a 52-week high of US$13.57 and a low of US$6.02 [6]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 12.6% and a 6-month increase of 81.0% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for SANY International with an unchanged target price of HK$8, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current price of HK$6.41 [2][5]. Core Views - SANY International is expected to report a net profit decrease of approximately 15% year-on-year for 1Q24E, primarily due to reduced capital expenditure from miners, increased competition in certain product segments, and losses in the solar power segment. However, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by improvements in the solar business and strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and telescopic handlers [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected to reach RMB 26,717 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.8% [4][19]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2,131.3 million, with a growth rate of 10.5% compared to FY23A [4][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is forecasted to be RMB 0.67, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.8x [4][19]. Segment Performance - Mining equipment revenue is expected to decline by approximately 15% year-on-year due to decreased sales of coal mining equipment and a slowdown in wide-body truck sales, despite some growth in large-size mining trucks [3][4]. - Logistics equipment revenue is projected to grow by around 25% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for small-size port machinery and a solid backlog of large-size machinery [3][4]. - The solar power segment is anticipated to remain loss-making in 1Q24E, but the completion of certain projects may help mitigate losses in the future [3][4]. Market Context - The report highlights that the coal mining sector in China is experiencing a downturn, which is impacting SANY International's performance. However, the company is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand for its products, particularly in the mining and logistics sectors [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep with a target price of HKD 7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HKD 5.43 [3][6]. Core Insights - Xtep's short-term outlook has improved due to increased arrangements, leading to a 2% to 5% upward revision in FY24E - 26E net profit estimates [1][6]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10 times FY24E P/E and a 14% yield, supporting the positive outlook [1][6]. - The strategic disposal of K&P is seen as beneficial, as it alleviates impairment risks and allows Xtep to focus on its core market segments [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are estimated at HKD 15,371 million, HKD 15,713 million, and HKD 17,298 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for sales and 20% for net profit [6][7]. - The net profit for FY24E is revised to HKD 1,275 million, with subsequent years showing growth to HKD 1,479 million in FY25E and HKD 1,763 million in FY26E [7][8]. - The report indicates a projected diluted earnings per share of RMB 0.483 for FY24E, increasing to RMB 0.560 in FY25E and RMB 0.668 in FY26E [7][8]. Strategic Actions - Xtep plans to acquire K&P for USD 151 million, with the entire consideration paid as a special dividend of HKD 0.447 per share, representing approximately 8% of the current market capitalization [1][2]. - The company will redeem Hillhouse's K&P convertible bonds at a total value of USD 65 million, which will further streamline its capital structure [1][2]. - Xtep aims to enhance cash flow and dividend payments, allowing for accelerated expansion of its Saucony brand, which has reached breakeven [2][6].

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of $46 based on SOTP valuation [2][12] Core Views - GigaCloud (GCT US) delivered a strong Q1 2024 performance with revenue growth of 96% YoY, beating expectations by 3% [2] - Net profit in Q1 2024 was $27 million, up 71% YoY but 10% below expectations due to new fulfillment center costs and FX volatility [2] - Management guided Q2 2024E revenue of $265-280 million, representing 73-83% YoY growth, with the midpoint 9% above expectations [2] - Positive margin trends expected in 2H24E driven by narrowing NH losses, annual freight contracts, and improved warehouse utilization [2] - BaaS initiative launched in April 2024 is expected to unlock TAM and drive long-term incremental growth [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was $251 million, up 96% YoY, with gross profit of $67 million and net profit of $27 million [2][7] - FY24E revenue is forecasted at $1.112 billion, up 58% YoY, with net profit of $116 million [2][10] - FY25E revenue is projected at $1.353 billion, up 22% YoY, with net profit of $150 million [2][10] - FY26E revenue is estimated at $1.632 billion, up 21% YoY, with net profit of $188 million [2][10] Operational Highlights - Global fulfillment network expanded to 42 locations covering over 10.5 million square feet, up 169% from March 2023 [2] - Outdoor furniture demand is expected to drive Q2 2024E revenue growth [2] - BaaS program charges a competitive 4% fee compared to the industry standard of 10% [2] Valuation - SOTP valuation based on 18x P/E for 3P business and 16x P/E for 1P business, resulting in a target price of $46 [12] - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 15.7% and long-term growth rate of 3%, also supporting the $46 target price [13][14] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue grew 44% YoY to $704 million, with net profit up 293% YoY to $94 million [10] - FY22 revenue increased 18% YoY to $490 million, with net profit of $24 million [10] - FY21 revenue was $414 million, with net profit of $29 million [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for GigaCloud (GCT US) with a target price of US$46, representing a 23.2% upside from the current price of US$37.35 [5][12]. Core Insights - GigaCloud delivered strong 1Q24 results with revenue growth of 96% YoY, reaching US$251 million, and net profit of US$27 million, up 71% YoY. The net profit margin slightly declined due to expenses from new fulfillment centers and foreign exchange fluctuations [2][4]. - The company expects 2Q24 revenue to be between US$265 million and US$280 million, indicating a growth of 73% to 83% YoY, driven by increased demand for outdoor furniture and an expanding fulfillment network [2][4]. - GigaCloud's global fulfillment network has expanded to 42 locations with over 10.5 million square feet, a 169% increase compared to March 31, 2023, which supports robust growth in both first-party and third-party business [2][4]. - The launch of the BaaS (Business as a Service) program is anticipated to unlock total addressable market (TAM) opportunities and enhance engagement between buyers and sellers, with a competitive fee structure [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$704 million in FY23 to US$1,112 million in FY24, with further increases to US$1,353 million in FY25 and US$1,632 million in FY26 [17]. - Net profit is expected to rise from US$94 million in FY23 to US$116 million in FY24, reaching US$150 million in FY25 and US$188 million in FY26 [17]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 27% for FY24E to FY26E, while the net margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24E to 11.5% in FY26E [12][17]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the equity value at US$1,896 million, leading to a target price of US$46 based on a 16x FY24E P/E multiple [13][14]. - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests a target price of US$46, with a terminal value of US$2,356 million, assuming a WACC of 15.7% and a long-term growth rate of 3% [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a new target price of HK$7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HK$5.43 [4][7]. Core Views - The strategic disposal of K&P is expected to enhance short-term growth and improve cash flow, leading to a revision of FY24E-26E net profit estimates upwards by 2% to 5% [2][7]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10x FY24E P/E, compared to an 8-year average of 15x, alongside a 14% dividend yield for FY24E [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 15,371 million, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for FY26E [3][9]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,464.3 million in FY24E to RMB 2,557.2 million by FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 912.3 million in FY24E to RMB 1,775.7 million in FY26E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E net profit to RMB 1,275 million, FY25E to RMB 1,479 million, and FY26E to RMB 1,763 million, with respective growth rates of 3.6%, 2.2%, and 4.6% [8][9]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42.3% for FY24E, while EBIT margin is projected to improve to 14.1% by FY25E [8]. Market Performance - Xtep's stock has shown a 39.9% increase over the past three months, outperforming the market [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$14,307.2 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Ding Shui Po and family at 49% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a target price of HKD 2.40, reflecting a 23.1% upside from the current price of HKD 1.95 [2][10]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng reported a solid Q1 performance, aligning with positive profit warnings and management expectations. The company reiterated its FY24E guidance, projecting a year-over-year revenue decline in the low double digits, a gross profit margin (GPM) increase, and an operating profit margin (OPM) of 5.5% [1][10]. - The recent stock adjustment is viewed as profit-taking after a 101% increase over the past three months, with an optimistic outlook for 2H24E driven by growth in AirPods, integration of Voltaira's automotive electronics business, and successful orders for AI server/network products [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 revenue reached USD 965.06 million, a 12% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of USD 10.2 million, compared to a loss of USD 9.3 million in Q1 of the previous year. This performance was supported by a recovery in the PC/server market and strong results from the Voltaira business [1][5]. - The GPM improved by 450 basis points year-over-year to 20.3%. The electric vehicle (EV) segment saw a remarkable 205% year-over-year growth, while the computing segment grew by 6% and the networking segment by 9% [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For FY24E, revenue is expected to rebound by 12% year-over-year, with net profit projected to increase by 52%. The FY24E earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at USD 2.81, with subsequent years showing continued growth [1][6][9]. - The report indicates that the FY24E revenue forecast remains unchanged at USD 4.715 billion, with gross profit expected to be USD 984 million, maintaining a GPM of 20.9% [8][9]. Market Opportunities - The management highlighted a significant opportunity in AI servers, with expected revenue contribution of 7-9% in FY24E, up from 1% in FY23. The anticipated value per compute tray is estimated between USD 500 and USD 1,000 [1][6]. - The integration of Voltaira's automotive electronics is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth, alongside the anticipated increase in AirPods shipments and enhancements in AI server product offerings [1][10].