Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alibaba with a target price of US$157.7, up from the previous target of US$132.2, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of US$125.79 [2][27]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for 3QFY25 was RMB280.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7.6%, which was 1% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net income for the quarter were RMB54.9 billion and RMB51.3 billion, respectively, showing increases of 3.8% and 6.5% year-over-year, both exceeding consensus expectations [1][5]. - The growth outlook for Alibaba's EBITA in FY26E is becoming more positive, driven by factors such as increased merchant adoption of Quanzhantui, quicker-than-expected loss reduction from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), and accelerated cloud revenue growth due to rising AI inference demand across various industries [1][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY25E is projected at RMB1,001.6 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 6.4%. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach RMB159.9 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.0% [6][25]. - The adjusted EBITA margin for the consolidated group is anticipated to be 19.6% for 3QFY25, which is 0.5 percentage points ahead of consensus [23]. Business Segments - **Taobao and Tmall Group**: Revenue was RMB136.1 billion in 3QFY25, up 5.4% YoY, with customer management revenue (CMR) contributing RMB100.8 billion, a 9.4% increase YoY [8][9]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG)**: Revenue reached RMB31.7 billion, up 13% YoY, driven by strong demand for AI-related products. The adjusted EBITA margin was 9.9%, indicating improved operational efficiency [13][24]. - **Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC)**: Revenue grew by 32% YoY to RMB37.8 billion, although adjusted EBITA loss widened to RMB5.0 billion due to increased investments [12][24]. Forecast Revisions - The FY25-27E revenue forecast has been increased by 1-3%, and non-GAAP net profit estimates have been raised by 5-9%, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in CMR and cloud revenue [24][25]. Valuation - The new SOTP-based target price of US$157.7 translates into a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0x for FY25E and 14.9x for FY26E [27][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price raised to $157.7 from $132.2, reflecting a 25.4% upside potential from the current price of $125.79 [1][5][26]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for Q3 FY25 reached RMB 280.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 7.5%. Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net profit were RMB 549 billion and RMB 513 billion, respectively, showing growth of 3.8% and 6.5%, also exceeding expectations [1][4]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to better-than-expected performance from the Taobao Tmall Group (T&T) and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG), with T&T's revenue growing by 5.4% and CIG's revenue increasing by 13% [2][3][12]. - The report highlights improved profitability prospects for Alibaba, driven by higher acceptance of full-link tracking by merchants, faster-than-expected reduction in losses for the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), and increased demand for AI inference driving cloud revenue growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - T&T Group generated RMB 1,361 billion in revenue, with CMR contributing RMB 1,008 billion, reflecting a 9.4% year-on-year growth, driven by increased online GMV and improved commission rates [2][12]. - CIG's revenue reached RMB 317 billion, a 13% increase, benefiting from unexpected growth in GPU cloud computing demand [3][15]. - AIDC's revenue was RMB 37.8 billion, up 32% year-on-year, with management expecting profitability in Q1 FY26, earlier than previously anticipated [3][14]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 have been raised by 1-3%, and non-GAAP net profit estimates have been increased by 5-9%, primarily due to better-than-expected growth in CMR and cloud computing revenues [4][23]. Valuation and Target Price - The new target price of $157.7 corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 15x for FY26, reflecting a valuation adjustment based on improved performance expectations across various segments [1][26]. - The valuation breakdown includes $80.7 for T&T Group, $11.7 for AIDC, and $33.2 for CIG, among others, indicating a comprehensive assessment of Alibaba's diverse business units [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The report highlights that Crystal Tech Holdings (2228.HK) successfully completed a new share placement on February 18, 2025, with a total issuance size of approximately $268 million, making it the largest placement in the Hong Kong market for the year [1] - The placement was well-received, with multiple times coverage during the book-building process, leading to an increase in the issuance ratio to about 8.5% of the expanded share capital [1] - The company operates as an innovative R&D platform leveraging quantum physics, AI, and robotics to provide drug and material science solutions globally [3] - The report emphasizes the role of CMB International as the sole financial advisor and placement agent, showcasing its ability to identify core investors and attract new ones, thereby enhancing the company's order structure [2][4] Summary by Sections Transaction Overview - On February 18, 2025, Crystal Tech Holdings completed a new share placement with an issuance size of $268 million, representing 8.5% of the expanded share capital, and was priced at HKD 6.10 per share [1] Company Profile - Crystal Tech Holdings is a research and development platform that integrates quantum physics, AI, and robotics to offer solutions in drug and material sciences, including agriculture technology and new chemical products [3] Role of CMB International - CMB International acted as the sole financial advisor and placement agent, successfully bringing in quality long-term Chinese fund orders and enhancing investor interest through frequent communication [2][5]

2025 年 2 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 昨日（2 月 18 日）中国股票冲高回落。港股涨幅收窄，资讯科技、可选消费 与医疗保健板块领涨，地产与能源板块下跌，南向资金持续净买入 224 亿港 元。A 股回调，机器人、AI 医疗等近期热点概念股下跌，银行等防御性板块 逆势走强。中概股多数下跌。中国股票估值仍有吸引力，2025年恒生指数与 恒生科技指数动态 PE 约 10 倍和 18.5 倍，沪深 300 指数和创业板指数动态 PE 约 13.2 倍和 23.5 倍，而 MSCI 日本指数动态 PE 约 15.5 倍，MSCI 印度 指数和标普印度科技指数动态 PE 约 21 倍和 27.6 倍。 欧股再创新高。军工股持续大涨，特朗普希望减少美国对欧洲的防卫开支， 要求北约成员国将国防预算从 GDP 的 2%提高至 5%，投资者预期欧洲将增 加军费开支以自主承担更多安全责任。银行股领涨，估值优势和股票回购等 因素支撑银行股。年初以来，部分国际资金从美国科技股切换至欧洲股票， 令欧股跑赢美股。目前欧股仍有估值吸引力，欧元区斯托克指数 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for iQIYI, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - iQIYI reported inline 4Q24 results with total revenue declining by 14% YoY to RMB6.61 billion, which aligns with estimates [1]. - Non-GAAP operating income decreased by 56% YoY but increased by 10% QoQ to RMB406 million, slightly above the estimate of RMB395 million [1]. - The management anticipates a recovery in business performance in 1Q25, driven by the launch of several quality drama series [1]. - The target price has been adjusted to US$2.80 based on a 13x FY25E non-GAAP PE, down from the previous target of US$3.00 [1][11]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue is projected to decline by 9% YoY to RMB29.2 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin down by 3.8 percentage points YoY to 8.1% due to operating deleverage and content investment [1]. - Membership services revenue decreased by 15% YoY to RMB4.10 billion in 4Q24, primarily due to a weak content slate in the preceding months [8]. - Online advertising revenue fell by 13% YoY to RMB1.43 billion, mainly due to a decline in brand advertising revenue [8]. - The forecast for total revenue in 1Q25 is expected to grow by 7% QoQ but decline by 11% YoY to RMB7.07 billion [8]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - The revenue forecast for FY25 has been lowered by 4-7% due to a slower-than-expected recovery pace [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 is estimated at RMB1.5 billion, reflecting a decrease of 14.5% from previous estimates [9]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 24.9% in 2024 to 25.0% in 2025, while the non-GAAP operating margin is projected to rise from 8.1% in 2024 to 8.6% in 2025 [9]. Share Performance and Market Data - The current market capitalization of iQIYI is approximately US$2.22 billion, with a current price of US$2.31 and a target price of US$2.80, indicating an upside potential of 21.5% [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 18.8% and a 3-month performance of 10.3% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of USD 149.20, an increase of 3% from the previous target price of USD 144.60 [1][5]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 27.7 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3.5%. The annual core business revenue totaled RMB 104.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1][2]. - Cloud service revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, driven by strong AI-related GPU cloud revenue and cross-selling to CPU cloud and other cloud services. This growth trend is expected to continue into 2025 [1][2]. - The forecast for 2025 core search advertising revenue decline has been adjusted from 1.3% to 0.7%, indicating a smaller-than-expected impact from business adjustments [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Baidu's online advertising revenue was RMB 17.9 billion, a decline of 6.5% year-on-year but still above expectations. Approximately 22% of Baidu's search results were generated by generative AI [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for Q4 2024 was 16.8%, down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased AI-related investments and one-time losses of RMB 1 billion [4][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The report projects Baidu's total revenue for FY 2025 to be RMB 138.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 26.99 billion, showing no growth compared to FY 2024 [9][17]. - The cloud revenue growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from 13% to 26%, reflecting strong growth momentum [2][12]. Valuation - The SOTP valuation for Baidu is set at USD 149.2 per ADS, with contributions from core business, Apollo, and cloud services being significant components of this valuation [14][15]. - The core business is valued at USD 51.7 billion based on a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 5.0x for 2025, while the cloud segment is valued at USD 37.6 billion based on a 3.4x PS ratio for 2025 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Baidu, with a target price of US$149.20, representing a potential upside of 65.5% from the current price of US$90.16 [2][11]. Core Insights - Baidu's 4Q24 results showed Baidu Core revenue of RMB27.7 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3.5%. The non-GAAP operating profit for Baidu Core reached RMB4.6 billion, 1% above consensus [1]. - The cloud services revenue grew by 26% year-over-year, driven by strong AI-related GPU cloud revenue growth and cross-selling opportunities, indicating a sustainable growth trend into 2025 [1][5]. - The forecast for the core search ads business revenue decline has been narrowed to 0.7% for 2025, reflecting better-than-expected business adjustments [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, Baidu Core revenue totaled RMB104.7 billion, a 1.3% year-over-year increase, while non-GAAP operating profit was RMB23.9 billion, down 3% year-over-year [1][6]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is forecasted at RMB26.99 billion, with a slight decline of 0.0% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to grow by 4.3% to RMB138.8 billion [6][15]. - Non-GAAP operating profit margin for Baidu Core was 16.8% in 4Q24, with expectations of recovery alongside the ads business in 2H25 [1][5]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been raised by 1% to RMB138.8 billion, with a 4% increase in non-GAAP net profit forecast [1][9]. - The adjusted EPS for FY25 is projected at RMB77.17, with a P/E ratio of 10.3x [6][15]. - The gross margin is expected to be 51.0% for FY25, reflecting a slight improvement from previous estimates [9][15]. Share Performance and Valuation - Baidu's market capitalization stands at approximately US$31.53 billion, with a 52-week high of US$115.13 and a low of US$77.43 [2]. - The SOTP-based valuation indicates a contribution of US$51.7 for Baidu Core, US$37.6 for Baidu Cloud, and US$59.6 for net cash and other investments [11][12].

资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场，股价截至 17/2/2025上午11:20 如欲了解详尽个股分析，敬请参考英文版焦点股份：https://www.cmbi.com.hk/article/10967.html?lang=en 招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年2月17日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市盈率(倍) | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市净率(倍) | ROE (%) | 股息率 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Meidong Auto, with a target price of HK$2.80, indicating an upside potential of 28.4% from the current price of HK$2.18 [3][9]. Core Insights - Meidong's core earnings for 2H24E are projected to remain stable quarter-on-quarter, with profit improvements expected from BMW and Lexus, potentially offset by Porsche's declining profits [1][9]. - The report highlights rising impairment risks in 2H24E due to Porsche's worsening profit, with an estimated impairment loss of RMB1.3 billion for FY24E [1][9]. - The FY25E net profit estimate has been revised upward by 7% to RMB408 million, reflecting a more positive outlook for Porsche dealers and reduced interest expenses following the redemption of convertible bonds [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB21,859 million, a decline of 23.4% year-on-year, while FY25E revenue is expected to be RMB20,968 million, a further decline of 4.1% [2][11]. - Net profit for FY24E is expected to be a loss of RMB1,105 million, with a recovery to RMB408 million in FY25E, representing a significant turnaround [2][11]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 7.3% for FY24E, with an improvement to 8.3% in FY25E [11][12]. Earnings Projections - New-car sales volume is expected to rise by 12% quarter-on-quarter in 2H24E, contributing to a 6% increase in new-car revenue [1][9]. - The overall gross margin is projected to narrow by 0.5 percentage points to 7.1% in 2H24E, resulting in a gross profit of RMB792 million [1][10]. - The report estimates a net loss of RMB1.1 billion for 2H24E, but a net profit excluding impairment of RMB70 million is anticipated [1][10]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a 1.4% increase over the past month, but a decline of 13.1% over the past three months [5]. - The market capitalization of Meidong Auto is approximately HK$2,934.8 million [3]. Shareholding Structure - Apex Sail Limited holds a significant 52.3% stake in Meidong Auto, indicating concentrated ownership [4].

2025 年 2 月 17 日 ` 每日投资策略 全球市场观察、宏观经济及公司点评 全球市场观察 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 宏观经济 中国经济 - 信贷需求逐渐复苏 1 月社会融资规模和新增人民币贷款增速均好于市场预期，显示信贷需求逐渐复 苏。政府债券发行依然强劲，企业信贷需求小幅改善。去年 4 季度以来，三大先 行指标包括股市、信贷和一二线城市均开始改善，预示 2025 年中国经济可能出 现短期复苏。未来中国货币政策将保持宽松，以进一步支持国内经济复苏和对冲 特朗普 2.0 冲击。2025 年中国可能下调存款准备金率 50 个基点，下调 LPR 20- 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,620 | 3.69 | 32.69 | | 恒生 ...