14 Oct 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808 HK) Earnings risk not yet priced in We revise down our 2024E/25E earnings forecast by 5/2%, after incorporating our new industry HDT sales forecast (for details, please refer to our sector report "China Heavy-duty Truck – Headwinds in 4Q24 in both China & export; Eyes on policy-driven recovery in 2025"). We forecast ~20% YoY earnings decline in 2H24E, before recovering in 2025E. We rolled over our targ ...

14 Oct 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Weichai Power (000338 CH) Still positive, but wait for a better entry point after 3Q24E results We trim our HDT engine sales volume forecast by 7%/7%2% in 2024E/25E/26E, after incorporating our new industry HDT sales forecast (for details, please refer to our sector report "China Heavy-duty Truck – Headwinds in 4Q24 in both China & export; Eyes on policy-driven recovery in 2025"). In the near term, we believe th ...

2024 年 10 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀放缓但略超预期 9 月 CPI 增速延续放缓，因油价下跌和房租通胀回落。但食品、核心商品和其 他服务通胀均有反弹，令 CPI 和核心 CPI 增速略超市场预期。二手车、能源等 先行价格预示短期内进一步去通胀可能受阻，预计未来三个月 CPI 环比增速可 能平稳，但同比增速或因低基数效应而小幅反弹，核心 CPI 增速将稳定在高 位。中期内，由于房租通胀仍有补降空间，就业市场延续放缓将带动工资涨幅 和服务通胀回落，CPI 与核心 CPI 增速将延续温和下降。随着美国经济放缓、 通胀下降和实际利率居高，美联储在 9 月大幅降息以实现货币政策"校准"。 短期内美国经济仍具韧性而通胀仍超目标，美联储将转向小幅渐进式降息，预 计 11 月和 12 月各降 25 个基点。中期内美国经济和通胀将延续放缓，美联储明 年可能进一步降息 100 个基点。美国中性利率水平相比之前有所上升，在经济 软着陆情境下政策利率终值可能不低于 3%。 CPI 增速延续放缓，受益于能源价格下跌。9 月 CPI 环比增长 0.18%，高 于市场预期的 0.1 ...

2024 年 10 月 8 日 政策转向强宽松 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 策略观点 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | | | | 宏观：中国经济延续走弱，房地产降幅扩大，消费疲弱和通缩压力持续。中 | 叶丙南 , Ph.D | | 国政策大幅转向强宽松，希望修复房市和股市信心，中国市场情绪大振。但 目前政策仍难以扭转消费疲弱和通缩压力，仍需财政政策扩张、去产能政策 | 刘泽晖 | | 推进和市场化改革加速。美国经济延续温和放缓，从过热趋向偏冷，但有望 避免衰退。美联储 9 月大幅降息之后可 ...

2024 年 10 月 4 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 PMI 显示经济韧性与分化 9 月 PMI 显示美国经济韧性与分化。服务业 PMI 大幅上升连续 3 个月扩张，新订 单、库存和价格指数延续扩张显示内需稳健，但就业指数降至收缩区间预示劳动 力市场延续降温，经济仍有放缓风险。制造业 PMI 连续 6 个月收缩，需求、就业 与价格均在收缩，进出口贸易活动走弱。PMI 数据显示美国以服务业为主的经济 仍有韧性。展望未来，经济可能延续放缓，逐渐从过热走向偏冷，但有望避免衰 退。我们认为，美联储在 9 月超常规大幅降息后，11 月和 12 月可能分别降息 25 个基点，明年进一步降息 100 个基点。 服务业延续扩张，内需依然稳健。ISM 服务业 PMI 从 8 月的 51.5 升至 9 月的 54.9，服务业扩张速度加快。根据历史经验，服务业 PMI 超过 49 预示经济扩 张，9 月服务业 PMI 对应年化 GDP 增速为 1.9。服务业新订单指数从 53 大幅 升至 59.4创去年 3月以来最高，显示服务业需求依然强劲。库存指数和物价指 数分别从 8 月的 52.9 和 57 ...

30 Sep 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥(1378 香港) 预计中国刺激后 ASP 会上升 我们相信铝（Al）是受中国推出一系列强力市场政策影响最为敏感的行业之一 。这将与美元因美国开始降息周期而走弱以及铝相对较有限的新供应量相结合 ，有望在短期内推动铝价上涨，成为虹桥的关键催化剂。我们上调了2024年至 2026年的盈利预测，增幅为9-12%，主要由于铝价假设上调。据估计，每1%的 铝价上涨将使虹桥的每股收益增加4%。目前，虹桥正处于中期估值水平（2024 年市盈率7倍），具有吸引力的股息收益率7%。基于不变的9.8倍2024年市盈率 ，我们新的目标价为19.6港元（此前为17.9港元）。维持 BUY . ... 近期需求将得到政策的支持。 我们估计，中国的建筑（包括房地产和基 础设施）以及汽车市场分别占全球人工智能需求的16%和14%。我们认为，中 国政府的政策将有助于稳定上述需求的预期。从长期来看，我们继续看好汽车 轻量化趋势和太阳能安装的快速增长，这些因素将成为人工智能结构性增长的 动力。 新供应有限... 中国8月份的铝产量同比增长放缓至1.3%（低于6月和 ...

30 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Expect higher ASP following China's stimulus We believe aluminum (Al) is one of the sectors that is highly sensitive to the launch of the series of forceful pro-market policies in China. This, together with the weakness of dollar as a results of the start of rate-cut cycle in the US and a relatively limited new supply of Al, will likely boost the near-term Al price which will serve as ke ...

Investment Rating - Maintain **Buy** rating with a revised target price of HK$107.84, up from HK$97.05, reflecting a 24.2% upside potential [2][3] - The new target price is based on a 20x FY25E P/E multiple, up from 18x, due to improved investor sentiment following central government stimulus measures [2] Core Views - The company's new retail formats, such as the "ANTA Super Store," "ANTA Champion Store," "ANTA SNEAKERVERSE," "ANTA Arena," and "ANTA Palace," are successfully driving growth and expanding the customer base [1] - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a monthly sales estimate of RMB 1.5 million, outperforms regular ANTA stores, with annual sales per square meter reaching RMB 21,000, compared to RMB 16,000 for regular stores [6] - The company aims to open 10 ANTA Super Stores in FY24 and expand to 40 stores within three years, potentially contributing 2% to ANTA brand sales by FY26 [6] - The company's market segmentation strategy, including targeting mass-market, premium, and niche markets, is well-executed and supports future growth [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from FY23 to FY26E, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 16% [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB 70.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 13.7 billion, representing a 12.8% YoY growth in revenue and 21.4% YoY growth in net profit [3][19] - FY25E revenue is forecasted at RMB 78.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 15.0 billion, reflecting an 11.4% YoY revenue growth and 9.7% YoY net profit growth [3][19] - FY26E revenue is expected to reach RMB 87.1 billion, with net profit of RMB 17.6 billion, indicating an 11.2% YoY revenue growth and 17.5% YoY net profit growth [3][19] Store Performance and Strategy - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a floor area of 670 sqm (860 sqm including warehouse), achieves monthly sales exceeding RMB 1 million, with an average ticket size of RMB 330 [6] - The store offers a wide range of products, including training gear, professional sports, outdoor products, and sports culture, with approximately 1,000 SKUs [1] - The store's product mix differs from regular ANTA stores, with only 10% overlap in SKUs, and a higher proportion of evergreen products [1] - The company's strategy to attract new customers, particularly families and students, is successful, with over 90% of customers being first-time visitors to ANTA Group [6] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's FY25E P/E of 16x is below its 5-year historical average of 25x, indicating undervaluation [2] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, at 24.7% in FY26E, compared to 26.0% in FY21A [3][19] - Peer comparison shows ANTA Sports trading at a lower P/E multiple compared to some international brands like Nike and Adidas, which trade at higher multiples [17] Growth Drivers - The company's new retail formats and market segmentation strategy are key growth drivers, supported by strong execution and financial performance [1][6] - The ANTA Super Store model, with its high sales per square meter and attractive pricing, is expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [6] - The company's focus on expanding its customer base, particularly through family and student segments, is expected to contribute to long-term growth [6]

27 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Anta Sports (2020 HK) Takeaways from the Anta Superstore visit The Anta Superstore we visited is fairly competitive and should be a decent growth driver onwards, supported by its superior price to quality and great variety of choices. Moreover, it can also acquire more family-type customers, and it has reasonable room for store expansion and decent financials (both sales per store and sales per sq.m are better t ...

点击蓝字 关注我们 免重 责要 招商银行全资附属机构 百度（BIDU US， 买入， 目标价：180.50美元）：2024云智大会：进一步推动大模型产业化落地 我们参加了百度于25-26日举办的2024云智大会。针对算力、模型、AI应用三个方面，百度升级百舸AI异构计 算平台4.0、千帆大模型平台3.0两大AI基础设施，并升级智能客服（客悦）、代码助手（文心快码）、数字人 （曦灵）三大AI原生应用产品，进一步推动大模型产业化落地、赋能企业生产力效率提升从而提升云业务的用 量并获取大模型时代增量的变现机会。我们看好百度云业务在GPU时代的增长前景，基于较为领先的基础设施 架构及技术实力、受益于GPU云业务营收持续起量、及基于GPU云服务交叉销售CPU云服务，百度云业务营收 增速有望稳步恢复、利润率水平有望受益于规模效应扩大及相对较高利润率GPU云业务营收占比提升而持续提 升。我们基于SOTP的目标价对百度的估值为每ADS 180.5美元，其中云业务的估值为每ADS 32.2美元，占比 目标估值17.8%。维持买入评级。 本档仅供参考，投资者应仅依赖此发售之发行通函所载资料作出投资决定。版权归招银国际及相关内容提 ...