Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with a target price of US$230.30, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of US$200.03 [1][3]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks reported solid results for 2QFY25, with total revenue increasing by 14.3% year-over-year to US$2.26 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 1% [1]. - Non-GAAP net income for the same period reached US$566 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth and exceeding consensus by 4%, driven by optimized sales and marketing spending [1]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary in the Gen-AI era, with expected growth in demand for security solutions due to increased AI-related deployments [1]. - The FY25-27 revenue and non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards by 0-2% and 1-3% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected growth [1]. Financial Performance - For FY25, total revenue is projected to be between US$9.14 billion and US$9.19 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) expected to be between 28.0% and 28.5% [8]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is forecasted to be between US$2.286 billion and US$2.286 billion, with a diluted non-GAAP EPS of US$3.18 to US$3.24 [8][10]. - Subscription and support revenue grew by 16% year-over-year to US$1.8 billion, accounting for 81% of total revenue [8]. Key Operating Metrics - The number of active SASE customers increased by 20% year-over-year to over 5,600, with the number of SASE deals exceeding US$1 million rising 2.5 times year-over-year [8]. - Total bookings across Cortex & Prisma Cloud grew approximately 50% year-over-year, with cumulative XSIAM bookings surpassing US$1 billion [8]. - The company achieved 1,150 total Platformizations among its top 5,000 customers, with significant growth in large deal wins [8]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Palo Alto Networks is approximately US$141.23 billion, with an average turnover of US$935.6 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of 17.3% and a 6-month performance of 17.7% [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are US$9.188 billion, US$10.705 billion, and US$12.409 billion respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 14.5%, 16.5%, and 15.9% [2][14]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is expected to be US$2.286 billion, with a growth rate of 17.4% year-over-year [2][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Coinbase, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Coinbase reported strong 4Q24 results with total revenue growing by 138% YoY and 88% QoQ to US$2.27 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 21% [1]. - The favorable regulatory environment is expected to support long-term growth for Coinbase, leading to a revision of FY25-26 total revenue forecasts upward by 24-27% [1][7]. - The target price for Coinbase has been raised to US$352.00 from a previous US$250.00, reflecting a 28.3% upside from the current price of US$274.31 [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, Coinbase's revenue is projected at US$6.564 billion, with net profit expected to reach US$2.579 billion, resulting in an EPS of US$10.43 [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 4Q24 was reported at US$1.29 billion, a 298% increase YoY, driven by strong operating leverage [1]. - The transaction revenue in 4Q24 grew by 194% YoY to US$1.56 billion, while subscription and services revenue increased by 64% YoY to US$641 million [6]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY25E and FY26E have been revised to US$7.204 billion and US$7.602 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 23.7% and 26.8% compared to previous estimates [7]. - The net profit for FY25E is estimated at US$1.529 billion, with an EPS of US$6.18, which is above the consensus estimate of US$5.96 [2][8]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 58.7% in 4Q24, up by 23 percentage points YoY, indicating strong operating leverage [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Coinbase plans to focus on three key initiatives in FY25E: driving core business revenue growth, enhancing utility for crypto payments, and engaging with regulators to shape crypto regulation in the US [6]. - The company aims to expand its asset offerings and improve user experience to capture more market share [6]. Valuation - The valuation of Coinbase is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with the transaction business valued at US$286.0 per share, accounting for 81% of the total valuation [9]. - The custodial and asset management business is valued at US$19.7 per share, while the interest and stablecoin business is valued at US$22.7 per share [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 25.2 times FY25 earnings [1][4][19]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to see a significant net profit increase of 130-145% year-on-year for FY24, reaching between RMB 17 billion and 18.2 billion, driven by the recovery in the global smartphone market and product upgrades across various segments [1][2]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends such as AI and foldable smartphones, as well as new orders in automotive audio systems from major clients like Xiaomi and Huawei [1][3][4]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in FY25, with a gross profit margin (GPM) target of 22-25% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY22 revenue was RMB 20.625 billion, with a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while FY23 revenue slightly declined by 1% to RMB 20.419 billion. For FY24, revenue is expected to increase by 35.2% to RMB 27.613 billion, followed by FY25 and FY26 with projected revenues of RMB 31.383 billion and RMB 34.183 billion respectively [5][23]. - Net profit for FY22 was RMB 821.3 million, which decreased by 37.6% year-on-year. In FY24, net profit is expected to rebound significantly to RMB 1.776 billion, with further growth to RMB 2.273 billion in FY25 and RMB 2.751 billion in FY26 [5][23]. Earnings Estimates - The report revises FY24-26 earnings per share (EPS) estimates upward by 1-4%, reflecting improvements in optical, acoustic, and MEMS sectors [1][19]. - The new EPS estimates for FY24, FY25, and FY26 are RMB 1.51, RMB 1.93, and RMB 2.34 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.9, 22.6, and 18.7 [5][19]. Market Position and Catalysts - AAC Tech is positioned to capitalize on the launch of AI and foldable smartphones, new AI smart glasses, and automotive audio orders, which are expected to drive future growth [1][4][19]. - The report highlights the importance of product upgrades in various segments, including acoustic, MEMS, thermal management, and optical, as key growth drivers [1][3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Datadog (DDOG US), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Datadog's total revenue for 4Q24 was US$737.7 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus forecasts [1]. - The company is entering an investment phase aimed at driving long-term growth, with management planning to increase spending on sales and marketing (S&M) and research and development (R&D) in 2025 [1][5]. - The target price for Datadog is set at US$156.4, up from a previous target of US$154.3, based on a valuation of 16.6x 2025E EV/sales [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached US$2.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 26%, and non-GAAP net income increased by 41% to US$653.8 million [1][6]. - Key operating metrics include billings of US$908 million (up 26% YoY), and a net dollar-based retention rate in the high-110s percentage [5][6]. - The company had over 30,000 customers by the end of 2024, with significant growth in large customers contributing to the annual recurring revenue (ARR) [5]. Future Guidance - Management expects 1Q25 revenue to be between US$737-741 million, representing approximately 21% growth YoY, and non-GAAP net income per share to be between US$0.41-0.43 [5]. - For FY25, revenue is projected to be between US$3.175 billion and US$3.195 billion, indicating an 18-19% growth YoY [5][6]. - Operating expenses are expected to grow in the high-20s percentage YoY, which may impact near-term margins but is aimed at supporting long-term growth [1][5]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc (9.2%) and Blackrock Inc. (6.8%) [3]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Datadog is approximately US$48.735 billion, with a 52-week high of US$168.65 and a low of US$104.97 [2][3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -2.3% and a 6-month performance of 19.0% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, implying a 14.9% upside from the current price of HK$46.55 [1][3][15]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to experience significant earnings growth of 130-145% YoY for FY24, driven by a recovery in the global smartphone market, specification upgrades across various segments, and improved operational efficiency [1][8]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends in AI and foldable phones, as well as new product launches such as AI smart glasses and auto acoustics orders [1][8]. - The report anticipates continued earnings growth of 28% and 21% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, supported by a favorable product mix and margin improvements [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in FY23 to RMB 27,613 million in FY24, representing a 35.2% YoY increase [2][21]. - Net profit is projected to rise from RMB 740.4 million in FY23 to RMB 1,776.3 million in FY24, reflecting a 139.9% YoY growth [2][21]. - The report revises FY24-26E EPS forecasts upward by 1-4% due to anticipated specification upgrades and margin improvements [1][9][15]. Revenue Breakdown - For FY24, revenue from acoustics is expected to be RMB 8,680 million, while PSS (Power Supply Solutions) is projected at RMB 3,125 million [13]. - The revenue mix indicates that acoustics will account for approximately 31% of total revenue in FY25, with PSS contributing around 11% [13]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$53.48 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting different growth profiles across business segments [15][16]. - The target price implies a P/E ratio of 25.2x for FY25E, aligning with industry peers [15][16].

2025 年 2 月 10 日 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 5.3%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 0.9%。 受益于海外降息以及国内宏观环境改善，医药作为高弹性行业有望在 2025 年跑赢 市场。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将借助商业医疗保险的覆盖获得更好的 支付条件。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 药明康德 | 603259 CH | 买入 | 23,044.0 | 78.51 | 35% | 15.0 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | | 百济神州 | ONC US ...

中国汽车行业 - 1月行业折扣扩大，比亚迪、零跑、埃安领衔 根据我们的测算，1月全行业平均折扣环比扩大0.3个百分点，主要由自主品牌（比亚迪、零跑和埃安）以及德 系品牌（宝马和奥迪）推动。昨晚比亚迪宣布将为几乎所有的主销车型标配高阶智驾功能，并且加量不加价， 从行业折扣的角度我们认为这将进一步促使价格战升级。在主要的车企中，我们认为吉利和小鹏今年仍有望交 出好于市场预期的答卷。 蔚小理和零跑：2025年1月，蔚来和理想的平均折扣环比持平，小鹏的平均折扣环比扩大0.8个百分点，主要 是因为G6和X9的折扣环比扩大4-5个百分点。小鹏有望在1Q推出P7大改款，2Q推出全新车型G7。零跑1月份 的平均折扣环比扩大3.1个百分点至9.1%，超出我们的预期。 行业点评 科技行业 - 智能驾驶：比亚迪"汽车智能化战略"发布会要点解读 2月10日，比亚迪在深圳总部举行的"汽车智能化战略"发布会上宣布，将在所有价格超过10万元的车型和3款 价格低于10万元的车型上搭载其"天神之眼"先进智能驾驶系统。首批21款车型均配备行业领先的端到端大型语 言模型LLM、5个毫米波雷达、12个摄像头和12个超声波雷达。由于比亚迪智能驾驶进展 ...

Employment Data - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, below the market expectation of 175,000[1] - The total non-farm employment data for November and December was revised upward by 100,000 to 261,000 and 307,000 respectively[2] - Private sector job growth slowed from 273,000 in December to 111,000 in January[2] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.48% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.33%[2] - Year-on-year wage growth slightly rose from 4.05% to 4.06%[2] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.0% in January[3] - Labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.6%[3] Labor Market Adjustments - Total labor force population was revised upward by 2.1 million, primarily due to foreign-born workers[3] - The three-month moving average of non-farm payrolls rose from 82,000 in August to 237,000 in January[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts in March and May[4] - Further rate cuts of 25 basis points may occur in June and September due to tightening effects from rising real rates and a stronger dollar[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Amazon, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [23]. Core Insights - Amazon's 4Q24 results showed revenue of US$187.8 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of US$21.2 billion, up 61% year-over-year, driven by margin improvements in both North America and AWS segments [1][6]. - For 2025, revenue is projected to grow to between US$151.0 billion and US$155.5 billion, implying a 5-9% year-over-year growth, while operating profit is expected to be between US$14.0 billion and US$18.0 billion [1][6]. - The target price for Amazon has been raised by 14% to US$268.0, based on an 18.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, which aligns with the two-year trading average [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, total revenue reached US$638.0 billion, with a net profit of US$59.2 billion, reflecting a 95% year-over-year increase [1][8]. - For FY25, revenue is estimated at US$702.6 billion, with a net profit of US$71.2 billion, representing a 20.2% year-over-year growth [8][12]. - The operating profit for FY25 is projected to be US$83.8 billion, up 22% year-over-year, despite a negative impact of US$400 million from accounting changes [7][12]. Segment Performance - AWS revenue for 4Q24 was US$28.8 billion, up 18.9% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 36.9% [6][10]. - The North America segment reported revenue of US$115.6 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, with operating margin expanding to 8.0% [6][10]. - Advertising services revenue grew 18.0% year-over-year to US$17.3 billion, contributing 9.2% to total revenue in 4Q24 [6][10]. Valuation and Forecast Changes - The valuation period has been rolled over to 2025E, with updated forecasts reflecting a slight decrease in revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 by 0.4% [12][13]. - The gross profit margin for FY25 is expected to be 50.0%, with an operating profit margin of 11.9% [12][13].

招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 台积电：AI 需求激增推动强劲的业绩和指引 台积电（TSM US，未评级）公布了强劲的 2024年四季度业绩。公司收入达到 268 亿美元（同比增长 36.5%/环比增长 14.1%），比彭博一致预期/公司指引高 3.9%/1.3%，主要受 3 纳米/5 纳米芯片的强劲需求驱动。毛利率扩张至 59.0%，高 于彭博一致预期/公司指引的 58.5%/58.0%，主要受益于更高的产能利用率和生产 效率，部分被 3 纳米产能扩张的稀释抵消。按技术节点划分，3 纳米在四季度的收 入占比为 26%（上季度/去年同期为 20%/15%）。按下游应用领域划分，高性能计 算仍是最大贡献板块，收入占比超过 50%，反映 AI 的强劲需求。2024 财年收入同 比增长 30%至 901 亿美元，毛利率为 56.1%，同比提升 1.7 个百分点。 管理层预计 2025 年一季度收入将在 250-258 亿美元区间。收入中值意味着同比增 长 35%，环比下降 6%。管理层表示，收入环比下降 6%主要受 1）智能手机季节 性因素影响，但 2）部分将被 AI 领域的强劲需求所抵消。 ...