Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dmall Group Co., Ltd. (2586 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 16.00, based on a 6.0x price-to-sales ratio for FY25 [1][10]. Core Insights - Dmall achieved breakeven for FY24, with total revenue increasing by 17% year-on-year to RMB 18.6 billion, and adjusted net profit improving to RMB 298 million from a loss of RMB 2.77 billion in FY23, driven by strong growth in core retail services and operational efficiency [1][2]. - The company is focusing on AI retail to capture new growth opportunities, having launched several AI agent products that are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the long term [1][2]. - For FY25, management anticipates revenue growth of 15-20% and further margin expansion, although revenue forecasts for FY25-26 have been adjusted downward due to slower customer acquisition [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB 18.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved from 35.0% in FY23 to 40.1% in FY24, while the adjusted net profit margin rose from -14.7% to 1.6% [3][12]. - The retail core service cloud revenue grew by 39% to RMB 1.81 billion, with AIoT solutions seeing a 65% increase to RMB 1.02 billion [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY25 are set at RMB 2.19 billion, with expected growth rates of 17.8% for FY26 and 14.1% for FY27 [4][12]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 134.4 million in FY25, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [4][12]. - The report indicates a projected increase in adjusted net profit margins to 6.1% in FY25 and 17.6% in FY27 [10][12].

20 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Earnings Summary | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 1,585 | 1,859 | 2,190 | 2,572 | 2,936 | | YoY growth (%) | 19.4 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 14.1 | | Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) | (233.3) | 29.8 | 134.4 | 337.8 | 517.5 | | YoY growth (%) | na | na | 351.0 | 151.4 | 53.2 | | EPS (Adjusted) (RMB cents) | (44.43) | 5.39 | 14.94 | 37.56 | 57.55 | | P/S (x ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.46% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 3.96% year-to-date [1][2] - European markets saw gains, particularly in Germany, where military stocks surged following a historic parliamentary decision to increase defense spending [3] - US markets declined, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2%, driven by losses in communication services and consumer discretionary sectors [3][4] Industry Insights Real Estate - The report recommends increasing allocation to quality real estate stocks, citing policy support from cities like Shenzhen and Suzhou easing housing purchase restrictions [5] - Strong sales data indicates a robust recovery, with new home transaction volume up 2% year-on-year and second-hand home transactions up 38% [5] - The report anticipates a 70% probability of positive impacts on the sector in Q2, driven by improved consumer sentiment and reduced concerns over financing issues [5] Technology - Tencent Music reported a 8% year-on-year revenue increase to 7.5 billion yuan, with a 45% rise in non-IFRS net profit, driven by improved gross margins and cost control [6] - Xiaomi's revenue and adjusted net profit grew by 49% and 69% respectively, with strong performance in IoT and electric vehicle segments [12] - XPeng Motors achieved a 59% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase, with expectations for continued growth driven by new model launches and international expansion [10][11] Healthcare - WuXi AppTec's revenue decreased by 2.73% to 39.2 billion yuan, but showed signs of improvement in Q4, with a 70.1% revenue growth in TIDES business [13][14] - The company anticipates a 10-15% revenue growth in 2025, supported by a significant increase in orders [14][15] Consumer Goods - Anta Sports is expected to see growth driven by its Saucony brand, which is projected to grow by 30-40% [16][17] - The company is implementing a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects despite short-term sales impacts [17][18] Company Specifics Tencent Music - The company reported a 45% increase in non-IFRS net profit, driven by strong growth in online music services and improved operational efficiency [6] Xiaomi - The company raised its electric vehicle delivery target to 350,000 units for 2025, reflecting strong demand and growth potential in the EV market [12] XPeng Motors - The company expects to achieve quarterly breakeven by Q4 2025, with projected sales growth supported by new model launches [10][11] WuXi AppTec - The company plans to increase capital expenditures by 75-100% in 2025 to support growth in its TIDES business, which has seen significant order increases [14][15] Anta Sports - The company is focusing on expanding its Saucony brand and implementing a DTC strategy to enhance customer experience and drive sales growth [16][17]

年 3 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 零售显示消费放缓 美国 2 月零售增速小幅反弹但仍显著低于市场预期，上月增速也大幅下调。 耐用品、运动文娱商品和服装延续疲软，餐饮服务消费创 2023 年以来最大 跌幅，但网购和个人护理消费反弹。特朗普加征关税、驱逐非法移民和削减 政府支出将减少总需求，推升不确定性，抑制企业投资与家庭耐用消费，导 致经济下行。近期关税政策和远期减税政策将推升中期通胀不确定性。预计 美联储将在本周会议上保持利率不变，重申去通胀目标，但也关注经济下行 风险。点阵图可能维持年内降息两次的指引，同时联储可能进一步减少 QT 规模。鲍威尔可能保持中性观望的政策态度，不会做出因经济下行风险而降 息的承诺，因为他不愿为白宫激进的关税政策保驾护航。预计美联储 5 月、 6 月和 7 月可能继续暂停降息，9 月或 12 月降息 1-2 次。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 同比(%, ...

Economic Overview - In February, U.S. retail sales showed a slight rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.2%, but this was below market expectations of 0.6%[4] - January's retail growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%[4] - The largest category, automotive and parts sales, fell by 0.4% in February after a significant drop of 3.7% in January[4] Consumer Spending Trends - Durable goods and food service sectors continued to show weakness, with food service sales experiencing the largest decline since 2023 at -1.5%[4] - E-commerce rebounded from -2.4% in January to 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from the previous year[4] - Personal care retail sales increased from negative growth to 1.7%, while sports and apparel categories declined by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively[4] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Outlook - The uncertainty from Trump's tariffs, immigration policies, and government spending cuts is expected to reduce overall demand and suppress business investment and durable goods consumption, leading to economic downturn risks[4] - Inflation uncertainty is rising, with long-term inflation expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with guidance suggesting two potential rate cuts later in the year[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XtalPi, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - XtalPi is positioned as an AI-driven innovative R&D platform with stable revenue growth, focusing on drug discovery solutions and intelligent automation services [1][2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its capabilities in drug discovery and automation [1]. - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 174 million in FY23 to RMB 251 million in FY24 (44% YoY) and further to RMB 434 million in FY25 (73% YoY) [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - XtalPi's revenue is forecasted to increase significantly, with FY24E revenue at RMB 251 million and FY25E at RMB 434 million, reflecting growth rates of 44% and 73% respectively [4][16]. - The company has a diverse revenue stream from both drug discovery and intelligent automation, which are on stable growth trajectories [3]. Financial Position - XtalPi completed two financing arrangements in 2025, raising HKD 3.2 billion to strengthen its cash reserves and support future growth plans [3]. - The financial summary indicates a net loss reduction from RMB 1,906 million in FY23 to RMB 1,491 million in FY24E, and further to RMB 310 million in FY25E [4][16]. Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has a broad network of partnerships across various industries, including collaborations with GCL Group for new energy materials and with Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine for traditional medicine R&D [2]. - XtalPi's partnerships with major firms like Microsoft China and JW Pharmaceuticals highlight its potential in biomedicine and new materials innovation [2]. Valuation - The target price for XtalPi is set at HKD 7.57 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for XtalPi, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [20]. Core Insights - XtalPi is leveraging its AI-driven innovative R&D platform to achieve stable revenue growth across its two core businesses: drug discovery solutions and intelligent automation solutions. The company has established strategic collaborations with leading pharmaceutical firms, enhancing its market position [9]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, from RMB 174 million in FY23 to RMB 251 million in FY24 (+44% YoY), and further to RMB 434 million in FY25 (+73% YoY) [2][9]. - The company has strengthened its financial position by completing two fundraising placements in 2025, raising HK$3.2 billion to enhance cash reserves and fund future growth initiatives [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth from FY22 to FY26 is expected to be substantial, with a forecast of RMB 841 million by FY26, reflecting a growth rate of 93.8% YoY [2][15]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,491 million in FY24 to a loss of RMB 86 million by FY26 [2][12]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 640 million in FY24 to a loss of RMB 158 million by FY26 [12][15]. Share Performance - The current price of XtalPi is HK$ 6.68, with a target price set at HK$ 7.57, indicating an upside potential of 13.3% [4]. - The market capitalization of XtalPi is approximately HK$ 26.85 billion [4]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Tencent Holdings with 10.9% and QuantumPharm ROC with 7.4% [5]. Partnerships and Collaborations - XtalPi has formed diverse partnerships across various industries, including collaborations with GCL Group for new energy materials and with Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine for TCM drug R&D [9]. - The company is also working with Microsoft China on biomedicine innovations and has a joint venture with Indonesia's Sinar Mas Group to promote AI applications across different sectors [9]. Valuation - The target price of HK$ 7.57 is derived from a DCF model, with a WACC of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [10].

招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年3月18日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市盈率(倍) | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市净率(倍) | 股息率 | ROE (%) | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | (十亿美元) | (百万美元) | （当地货币) | （当地货币) | 空 | 间 | FY23A | FY24E | FY23A | FY23A | FY23A | 分析师 | | 长 | 仓 | 买入 | 史迹/ 窦文静 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion, and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a share consolidation to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1% [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, reflecting a 3.7% increase [2][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 13.0% to RMB 12.1 billion in FY25E, with earnings per share projected at RMB 0.69 [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][1]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is HKD 12.24, with a potential upside of 11.9% to the target price [3]. - The stock has shown a 26.2% absolute return over the past six months [5]. Business Segments - The traditional tower business is expected to face continued pressure due to low single-digit growth forecasts for domestic telecom operators, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth rates [7][1]. - The indoor distribution business is projected to grow by 14.0% and 11.6% in FY25E and FY26E respectively, driven by market opportunities [7]. - The two wings business, particularly the Tower Intelligence segment, is expected to see significant revenue growth due to projects related to national disaster warning and agricultural protection [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a stock consolidation plan to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1%, followed by RMB 104.4 billion in FY26E and RMB 108.4 billion in FY27E [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, with a net profit forecast of RMB 12.1 billion, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][10]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 13.3% increase over the past three months, although it has underperformed relative to the market by 7.5% [5].