Industry Insights - The beauty industry, particularly domestic brands, is experiencing significant growth, with notable performances from brands like Mao Geping and Juzi Biotechnology, which have shown remarkable sales increases on platforms like Douyin [2][5] - In February, the online GMV for beauty products reached 31.6 billion RMB, marking an 18% year-on-year increase and a 1% month-on-month increase, driven primarily by skincare products [5][6] - The performance of domestic brands on Douyin is particularly strong, with brands like Marubi and Mao Geping showing growth rates of 336% and 274% year-on-year, respectively [5][6] Company Analysis - EHang Intelligent (EH US) reported a 1.9 times year-on-year revenue increase to 164 million RMB in Q4 2024, driven by eVTOL aircraft deliveries [7][8] - EHang aims for a revenue target of 970 million RMB in 2024, representing a 97% increase, with expectations of maintaining a gross margin around 60% [8][9] - 361 Degrees (1361 HK) achieved a 20% year-on-year sales growth to 10 billion RMB in FY24, with net profit increasing by 19% to 1.15 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations [9][10] - 361 Degrees has set a conservative sales growth target of 10-15% for FY25, focusing on volume increases and maintaining a gross margin of 40-42% [10][11] - The report highlights the potential for 361 Degrees' new store expansion strategy, which could serve as a catalyst for future growth [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Adobe with a target price adjusted to $629.00, reflecting a slight decrease in earnings forecasts for FY25-27 [1][12][28]. Core Insights - Adobe's total revenue for Q1 FY25 reached $5.71 billion, showing an 11% year-over-year growth, with non-GAAP net income increasing by 9% to $2.22 billion, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company anticipates that its AI-driven independent products will double their annual recurring revenue by the end of FY25, contributing approximately 1% to total revenue [1]. - Digital media revenue grew by 11% year-over-year to $4.23 billion, driven by strong performance in Acrobat and Creative flagship products [2]. - Adobe's strategic focus on customer-centric innovation and cross-cloud services is expected to drive long-term growth [3]. Financial Summary - For FY25, Adobe's projected revenue is $23.43 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 8.9% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 is estimated at $8.79 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be $19.66 [4]. - The company has accelerated its stock buyback program, repurchasing 7 million shares valued at $3.25 billion in Q1 FY25 [3]. Valuation - Adobe's valuation is based on a 32x price-to-earnings ratio for FY25, resulting in an estimated equity valuation of $281 billion [12][13]. - The target price reflects a 43.4% upside from the current price of $438.60 [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at $14.5 based on an 8x P/E ratio for FY25E [1][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of $457 million for Q4 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of approximately 0% in constant currency, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Non-GAAP net profit increased by 40% year-over-year to $107 million, exceeding expectations by 9% due to effective operational expense control [1][2]. - For FY25E, the overall sentiment among advertisers remains mixed, with certain verticals like 3C products and e-commerce increasing ad budgets supported by national subsidy programs, while others like cosmetics and gaming are cautious in ad spending. The company forecasts a 2% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency for FY25E [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company expects a slight revenue recovery in FY25E, projecting a total revenue of $1.77 billion, which represents a 2% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by growth in advertising revenue from 3C and e-commerce sectors [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at $481 million, with an adjusted EPS of $1.81. The report indicates a decrease in the non-GAAP operating profit margin to 31% for FY25E, down from 33% in FY24, mainly due to increased investments in artificial intelligence [4][14]. User Engagement Metrics - As of December 2024, the monthly active users (MAUs) decreased by 1% year-over-year to 590 million, while the daily active users (DAUs) to MAUs ratio improved to 44.1% from 43.0% in December 2023 [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced an annual dividend policy, planning to pay $200 million in dividends for FY24, which equates to an approximate 8% dividend yield [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Group (1164 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.36, representing a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HKD 1.52 [4][5][25] Core Insights - The profit warning issued by China General Nuclear Power Group indicates a projected net profit decline of HKD 130-180 million for 2024, primarily due to one-off items such as dividend withholding tax and fair value changes from stock exchanges [1][2] - Excluding these one-off factors, the pre-tax profit from ongoing operations is expected to grow by HKD 230-280 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41-50%, slightly above previous forecasts [1][2] - The company reported a significant increase in income tax expenses for the first half of 2024, attributed to changes in Kazakhstan's tax policy regarding dividend withholding tax [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 7,363 million in FY23A to HKD 10,992 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 49.3% [3][12] - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HKD 497.1 million in FY23A to HKD 443.4 million in FY24E, a decrease of 10.8% [3][12] - The company’s earnings per share (adjusted) is forecasted to decrease from HKD 6.54 in FY23A to HKD 5.83 in FY24E [3][12] Shareholder Structure - China General Nuclear Power Group holds a 56.9% stake in the company, with China Chengtong Holdings holding 10.0% [5] Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 2.6% over the past month and 7.9% over the past three months [6]

Inflation Trends - February CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 3% in January, and the month-on-month growth rate fell from 0.47% to 0.22%, below the market expectation of 0.27%[5] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%, with month-on-month growth dropping from 0.45% to 0.23%, also below the expected 0.28%[5] - The most persistent rent prices have seen their growth rate decline to near 2019 levels over the past three months[1] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased to 72 basis points for the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield slightly declining to below 4.3%[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts in March, May, and June, potentially considering a cut in September or December[1] Economic Uncertainties - Trump's tariff policy introduces medium-term inflation uncertainties, with a projected 10% tariff expected to raise PCE inflation by approximately 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months[5] - Consumer and business confidence indices have declined due to factors such as mass deportations and government spending cuts, leading to a potential slowdown in economic momentum[5] Core Services and Rent - Core services inflation has shown a mild decline, with transportation service prices significantly impacting the core CPI, dropping from a growth of 1.8% in January to -0.8% in February[5] - Owner's equivalent rent (OER), which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, has maintained a growth rate of 0.3%, with its annualized growth over the past three months falling to 3.7%[5]

(852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 非耐用品 耐用品 服务扣除房租 房租 (%) 年 3 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀超预期放缓，但不确定性仍在 美国 2 月通胀和核心通胀超预期放缓。食品和能源增速下降，核心商品中进口 商品如服装和家具价格增速超过去 6 个月平均水平。受机票和汽车保险价格等 运输服务价格大幅下降带动，核心通胀延续放缓，最具粘性的房租价格过去 3 月增速降至接近 2019 水平。数据公布后，市场对滞涨担忧略有缓解，对全年降 息幅度预期升至 72 个基点，10 年国债利率小幅下降至 4.3%以下区间。尽管通 胀近期仍保持温和放缓趋势，但特朗普关税政策给中期通胀带来不确定性。美 联储短期内可能对降息态度保持谨慎，在降通胀与防止就 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for EHang Holdings with an unchanged target price of US$30, indicating a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of US$22.45 [3][24]. Core Insights - EHang's net loss in 4Q24 narrowed by 35% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB47 million, supported by a significant increase in electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft deliveries, which grew 2.4 times YoY [1][8]. - For 2025, EHang targets revenue of RMB900 million, suggesting a 97% YoY growth, and is positioned as the first manufacturer in China to obtain essential certifications for mass production of eVTOL aircraft, ahead of competitors by 1-2 years [1][8]. - The potential approval of operator certification for its subsidiaries is expected to be a key catalyst for share price movement [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, EHang's revenue surged 2.9 times YoY to RMB456 million, while the net loss narrowed by 24% YoY to RMB230 million [2][19]. - The company achieved positive operating cash flow for five consecutive quarters, with net cash and short-term investments totaling RMB1 billion at the end of 2024 [1][8]. - Revenue projections for FY25E and FY26E are RMB899 million and RMB1,341 million, respectively, with corresponding YoY growth rates of 97% and 49.2% [2][19]. Delivery and Expansion - EHang delivered 78 units of the EH216 series in 4Q24, contributing to a total of 216 units delivered in FY24, representing a 3.1 times YoY increase [1][8]. - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, securing new orders in China and expanding flight operations to 16 cities in Japan, Thailand, and Mexico [1][8]. Share Performance and Market Data - EHang's market capitalization is approximately US$1.42 billion, with an average turnover of US$41.8 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown significant performance over the past six months, with an increase of 85.4% [5].

2025 年 3 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 预期药品集采政策优化，期待"创新药目录"落地 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 12.9%，跑输 MSCI 中国指数 7.6%。 受益于国内药品价格政策优化、国内宏观环境改善以及海外降息预期，医药行业有 望在 2025 年继续迎来估值修复。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将获得更好 的支付环境。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 百济神州 | ONC US | 买入 | 27,422.2 | 359.47 | 40% | 209 ...

2025 年 3 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 海外 CXO/生命科学上游 2024 和 4Q24 业绩剖析：C(D)MO 和生命科学上游表现亮眼，临床 CRO 需求滑坡 我们总结了海外主要 CXO 和生命科学上游公司的 2024 和 4Q24 业绩情况，所关注的 公司涉及临床 CRO、临床前 CRO、C(D)MO 以及生命科学上游。我们跟踪公司的 24 年收入和利润增长仍然承压，但有一半的公司 2H24 业绩表现相比 1H24 出现改善。 C(D)MO 和生命科学上游公司在业绩改善、需求展望和业绩指引方面均展现出积极趋 势；而临床 CRO 公司在 24 年下半年遇到了需求滑坡，相关公司对 25 年业绩指引普 遍保守。此外，我们认为 24 年 biotech 需求并没有实质改善，这将继续压制 25 年临 床前 CRO 的业绩表现。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | | 收入 CAGR 净利润 CAGR | P/E (x) | | PEG | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

市场盛传的海湖庄园协议构想主要来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran的一篇报告。该报告提出多国 联合干预推动美元贬值、征收对等关税、发行无息"世纪债券"置换美国国债、盟友分摊全球公共品成本等政 策。联合干预汇率政策难度相对较小，可以推动美元短期快速贬值，但难以重振美国制造业，可能推升通胀预 期，打击资本流入。国债置换政策难度相对较大，对降低美债利率作用有限，可能降低美债吸引力，打击美元 国际地位，削弱美国盟友体系。相比1985年广场协议，海湖庄园协议构想面对更具对抗性的地缘政治关系和更 加复杂的经贸关系，政策目标更加多元且相互冲突，推动美元贬值、剥夺美债收益与维持美元地位相矛盾，国 债置换面临市场接受度与法律可行性挑战，关税政策面临盟友、贸易伙伴与国内零售商反对，通胀压力将限制 政策空间，该协议构想落地和实现目标的难度都明显更大。该协议构想凸显特朗普"美国优先"、贸易保护主义 和经济民族主义的世界观。如果特朗普强行推进该协议构想，那么将引发美国金融市场短期动荡，利空美元、 美债与美股，利好黄金、欧元与人民币。 广场协议的启示。1985年9月美国面对贸易逆差扩大和保护主义情绪升温，协调日本、西德、 ...