Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of $26.40 per ADS, up from the previous target of $22.00 [1][5][27]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 77.3 billion for Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.53 billion, surpassing expectations by 15% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by strong performance in mobile gaming and advertising sectors, with mobile game revenue increasing by 79% year-on-year [2][3]. - The management has reiterated its long-term operating profit margin target of 15-20%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, total revenue is projected to grow by 19% to RMB 268 billion, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 99% to RMB 2.21 billion [1][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 total revenue to increase by 22% year-on-year, with mobile gaming, advertising, and value-added services (VAS) revenues expected to grow by 73%, 19%, and 10% respectively [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - VAS revenue grew by 8% to RMB 30.8 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue in Q4 2024, driven by increased premium membership and fan payment revenues [2]. - Advertising revenue increased by 24% to RMB 23.9 billion, representing 31% of total revenue, attributed to strong growth in performance advertising [2]. - Mobile gaming revenue surged by 79% to RMB 18 billion, making up 23% of total revenue, mainly due to new contributions [2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points to 36.1% in Q4 2024, while adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rose by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [3]. - For Q1 2025, adjusted OPM is expected to grow by 12 percentage points to 3.3% despite content investments for the Spring Festival Gala [3]. Valuation and Estimates - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the advertising business at $1.05 billion, VAS at $800 million, and mobile gaming at $800 million, with a total valuation of approximately $8.06 billion [16][17]. - The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB 30.42 billion, with a gross profit margin of 37.3% and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.75 billion [12][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $125.50, reflecting an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [2][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable performance in Q4 2024, with total revenue decreasing by 1.4% year-on-year to RMB 26.7 billion, aligning with market expectations. Operating profit increased by 13.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.8 billion, surpassing market expectations by 8% due to cautious control of sales and marketing expenses, which decreased by 33% year-on-year [1][2][3]. - For FY25, the company anticipates the launch of several new game titles to drive revenue growth, although total revenue forecasts for FY25-26 have been adjusted downwards by 2-3%. However, due to prudent operational expense control, the non-GAAP net income forecast for FY25-26 has been revised upwards by 2-3% [1][2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 105.3 billion in FY24 to RMB 110.7 billion in FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 33.5 billion in FY24 to RMB 36.0 billion in FY25, reflecting a growth rate of 7.5% [4][21]. - The operating profit margin is expected to improve, with a forecast of 30.4% for FY25, up from 29.1% in FY24, driven by effective control of sales and marketing expenses [3][11]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the online gaming business at $11.05 billion, accounting for 88% of the total valuation. Other segments include Youdao at $1 million, Cloud Music at $380 million, and innovation and other businesses at $1.8 million, with net cash valued at $8.5 million [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (YAL) with a target price adjusted to HK$36 from HK$38 [1][32]. Core Insights - YAL's net profit for 2024 reached A$1.2 billion, a 33% decline year-on-year, but exceeded expectations by 8% due to unexpected foreign exchange gains of A$149 million [1][2]. - The company announced a final dividend of A$0.52 per share, aligning with its dividend policy and expected to boost investor confidence [1]. - YAL's production guidance for 2025 remains similar to 2024, with an increase in capital expenditure anticipated [1][2]. - The average selling price of coal has decreased, impacting revenue forecasts, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates for 2025E and 2026E by 13% and 12% respectively [1][32]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 decreased by 12% to A$6.86 billion, despite a 14% increase in coal sales volume to 37.7 million tons, offset by a 24% drop in average selling price to A$176 per ton [2][4]. - The company reported a stable unit cash cost of A$86 per ton in the second half of 2024, with a significant cash balance of A$2.35 billion, representing 30% of its current market capitalization [2][4]. - The earnings forecast for 2025E is A$1.016 billion, reflecting a 16.4% decline from 2024, with a projected revenue of A$6.55 billion [4][35]. Operational Guidance - YAL's 2025 production guidance is set between 35 million to 39 million tons, with operating cash costs expected to range from A$89 to A$97 per ton [2][35]. - Capital expenditure is projected to be between A$750 million to A$900 million, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6% to 28% [2][35]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that YAL's valuation is not overly inflated, with a projected P/E ratio of less than 8 times for 2025E and a yield exceeding 6% [1][32]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HK$37.9 billion, with a current share price of HK$28.70 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for NetEase, with a target price of US$125.50, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the current price of US$104.17 [3][12]. Core Insights - NetEase's 4Q24 performance showed total revenue of RMB26.7 billion, down 1.4% YoY, but operating profit increased by 13.9% YoY to RMB7.8 billion, exceeding consensus estimates due to effective control of selling and marketing expenses [1][2]. - For FY25E, new game titles such as Marvel Rivals and Where Winds Meet are expected to drive revenue growth, despite a slight reduction in total revenue forecasts for FY25-26E by 2-3% [1][9]. - The company is focusing on prudent operational expense control, which is anticipated to support operating profit margin (OPM) improvement in FY25E [1][8]. Financial Summary - FY24 total revenue was RMB105.3 billion, with a gross margin of 62.5% and adjusted net profit of RMB33.5 billion, reflecting a YoY growth of 2.8% [2][19]. - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB110.7 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB36.0 billion, indicating a 7.5% growth [9][19]. - The company reported a significant improvement in OPM, which rose by 3.9 percentage points YoY to 29.2% in 4Q24 [1][8]. Business Segments - The online gaming segment remains the primary revenue driver, contributing 88% to the total valuation, with a projected valuation of US$110.5 billion based on a 15x EV/EBIT multiple [12][13]. - Non-gaming businesses, including Youdao and Cloud Music, are focusing on quality growth, although revenues in these segments have seen declines [1][8]. - The innovative businesses segment is valued at US$1.8 billion, reflecting a cautious approach to customer acquisition and prioritizing higher ROI engagements [12][13]. Market Position - NetEase's market capitalization stands at approximately US$66.7 billion, with a strong share performance over the past months, showing a 19% increase over the last three months [3][5]. - The company has a solid shareholder return strategy, having returned RMB20.0 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in FY24 [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili, with a target price raised to US$26.4 from the previous US$22.0, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% from the current price of US$22.11 [3][11]. Core Insights - Bilibili's 4Q24 earnings exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in mobile games and advertising, with total revenue increasing by 22% year-over-year to RMB7.73 billion [1][6]. - The company reported an adjusted net income of RMB453 million, a significant improvement from an adjusted net loss of RMB556 million in 4Q23, reflecting a narrowing of the adjusted net loss for FY24 to RMB22.1 million [1][2]. - Management has set a long-term operating profit margin (OPM) target of 15-20%, up from 6% in 4Q24, which is expected to enhance investor confidence [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached RMB26.8 billion, marking a 19% year-over-year growth, while the adjusted net loss narrowed by 99% year-over-year [1][2]. - Revenue projections for FY25E and FY26E are set at RMB30.4 billion and RMB32.6 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 13.4% and 7.1% [2][7]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 37.3% in FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB1.75 billion [2][7]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mobile games surged by 79% year-over-year to RMB1.80 billion in 4Q24, contributing 23% to total revenue [6]. - Advertising revenue grew by 24% year-over-year to RMB2.39 billion, driven by a 40% increase in performance ad revenues and a 30% rise in the number of advertisers [6]. - Value-added services (VAS) revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to RMB3.08 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue, supported by premium membership and the Fan Charging program [6]. Margin and Profitability Outlook - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points year-over-year to 36.1% in 4Q24, with adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rising by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [6]. - For FY25E, the adjusted OPM is expected to expand to 5.8%, with long-term targets set at 40-45% for GPM and 15-20% for OPM [6][11]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP valuation indicates a target price of US$26.4 per ADS, with the advertising business valued at US$10.5, VAS at US$8.0, and mobile games at US$8.0 [11][12]. - The report highlights that the target price reflects a 2.6x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025E [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Yancoal Australia (YAL) with a target price revised down to HK$36 from HK$38, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of HK$28.70 [3][29]. Core Insights - YAL's net profit for 2024 was A$1.2 billion, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, but 8% above estimates due to a significant foreign exchange gain of A$149 million. The company declared a final dividend of A$0.52 per share, with a pay-out ratio of 56%, aligning with its dividend policy and boosting investor confidence [1][9]. - The guidance for 2025 indicates stable output and unit costs compared to 2024, although capital expenditures are expected to increase. Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 13% and 12% respectively, primarily due to lower coal average selling prices (ASP) and slightly higher cost assumptions [1][29]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was A$6.86 billion, down 12% year-on-year, with coal sales volume increasing by 14% to 37.7 million tonnes, offset by a 24% decline in blended coal ASP to A$176 per tonne. Other income surged fivefold to A$159 million, driven by the aforementioned FX gain [9][10]. - The company achieved a unit cash cost of A$86 per tonne in 2H24, remaining stable year-on-year, while net cash at the end of 2024 stood at A$2.35 billion, representing 30% of the current market capitalization [9][10]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for FY25 is A$1.016 billion, reflecting a 16.4% decline from FY24, with a projected EPS of A$0.77. For FY26, net profit is expected to rise slightly to A$1.075 billion, with an EPS of A$0.81 [2][32]. - The report outlines a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of -4.5% for FY25, followed by slight increases of 0.8% and 2.2% in FY26 and FY27 respectively [2][32]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is approximately 6.3x for FY24, with a projected decrease to 7.6x for FY25. The dividend yield is expected to decrease from 9.0% in FY24 to 6.6% in FY25 [2][32]. - The report emphasizes that despite the earnings cut, the current valuation remains attractive, with a yield exceeding 6% and a P/E ratio below 8x for FY25 [1][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alibaba with a target price of US$157.7, up from the previous target of US$132.2, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of US$125.79 [2][27]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for 3QFY25 was RMB280.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7.6%, which was 1% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net income for the quarter were RMB54.9 billion and RMB51.3 billion, respectively, showing increases of 3.8% and 6.5% year-over-year, both exceeding consensus expectations [1][5]. - The growth outlook for Alibaba's EBITA in FY26E is becoming more positive, driven by factors such as increased merchant adoption of Quanzhantui, quicker-than-expected loss reduction from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), and accelerated cloud revenue growth due to rising AI inference demand across various industries [1][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY25E is projected at RMB1,001.6 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 6.4%. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach RMB159.9 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.0% [6][25]. - The adjusted EBITA margin for the consolidated group is anticipated to be 19.6% for 3QFY25, which is 0.5 percentage points ahead of consensus [23]. Business Segments - **Taobao and Tmall Group**: Revenue was RMB136.1 billion in 3QFY25, up 5.4% YoY, with customer management revenue (CMR) contributing RMB100.8 billion, a 9.4% increase YoY [8][9]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG)**: Revenue reached RMB31.7 billion, up 13% YoY, driven by strong demand for AI-related products. The adjusted EBITA margin was 9.9%, indicating improved operational efficiency [13][24]. - **Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC)**: Revenue grew by 32% YoY to RMB37.8 billion, although adjusted EBITA loss widened to RMB5.0 billion due to increased investments [12][24]. Forecast Revisions - The FY25-27E revenue forecast has been increased by 1-3%, and non-GAAP net profit estimates have been raised by 5-9%, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in CMR and cloud revenue [24][25]. Valuation - The new SOTP-based target price of US$157.7 translates into a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0x for FY25E and 14.9x for FY26E [27][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price raised to $157.7 from $132.2, reflecting a 25.4% upside potential from the current price of $125.79 [1][5][26]. Core Insights - Alibaba's total revenue for Q3 FY25 reached RMB 280.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 7.5%. Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net profit were RMB 549 billion and RMB 513 billion, respectively, showing growth of 3.8% and 6.5%, also exceeding expectations [1][4]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to better-than-expected performance from the Taobao Tmall Group (T&T) and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG), with T&T's revenue growing by 5.4% and CIG's revenue increasing by 13% [2][3][12]. - The report highlights improved profitability prospects for Alibaba, driven by higher acceptance of full-link tracking by merchants, faster-than-expected reduction in losses for the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), and increased demand for AI inference driving cloud revenue growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - T&T Group generated RMB 1,361 billion in revenue, with CMR contributing RMB 1,008 billion, reflecting a 9.4% year-on-year growth, driven by increased online GMV and improved commission rates [2][12]. - CIG's revenue reached RMB 317 billion, a 13% increase, benefiting from unexpected growth in GPU cloud computing demand [3][15]. - AIDC's revenue was RMB 37.8 billion, up 32% year-on-year, with management expecting profitability in Q1 FY26, earlier than previously anticipated [3][14]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 have been raised by 1-3%, and non-GAAP net profit estimates have been increased by 5-9%, primarily due to better-than-expected growth in CMR and cloud computing revenues [4][23]. Valuation and Target Price - The new target price of $157.7 corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 15x for FY26, reflecting a valuation adjustment based on improved performance expectations across various segments [1][26]. - The valuation breakdown includes $80.7 for T&T Group, $11.7 for AIDC, and $33.2 for CIG, among others, indicating a comprehensive assessment of Alibaba's diverse business units [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The report highlights that Crystal Tech Holdings (2228.HK) successfully completed a new share placement on February 18, 2025, with a total issuance size of approximately $268 million, making it the largest placement in the Hong Kong market for the year [1] - The placement was well-received, with multiple times coverage during the book-building process, leading to an increase in the issuance ratio to about 8.5% of the expanded share capital [1] - The company operates as an innovative R&D platform leveraging quantum physics, AI, and robotics to provide drug and material science solutions globally [3] - The report emphasizes the role of CMB International as the sole financial advisor and placement agent, showcasing its ability to identify core investors and attract new ones, thereby enhancing the company's order structure [2][4] Summary by Sections Transaction Overview - On February 18, 2025, Crystal Tech Holdings completed a new share placement with an issuance size of $268 million, representing 8.5% of the expanded share capital, and was priced at HKD 6.10 per share [1] Company Profile - Crystal Tech Holdings is a research and development platform that integrates quantum physics, AI, and robotics to offer solutions in drug and material sciences, including agriculture technology and new chemical products [3] Role of CMB International - CMB International acted as the sole financial advisor and placement agent, successfully bringing in quality long-term Chinese fund orders and enhancing investor interest through frequent communication [2][5]

2025 年 2 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 昨日（2 月 18 日）中国股票冲高回落。港股涨幅收窄，资讯科技、可选消费 与医疗保健板块领涨，地产与能源板块下跌，南向资金持续净买入 224 亿港 元。A 股回调，机器人、AI 医疗等近期热点概念股下跌，银行等防御性板块 逆势走强。中概股多数下跌。中国股票估值仍有吸引力，2025年恒生指数与 恒生科技指数动态 PE 约 10 倍和 18.5 倍，沪深 300 指数和创业板指数动态 PE 约 13.2 倍和 23.5 倍，而 MSCI 日本指数动态 PE 约 15.5 倍，MSCI 印度 指数和标普印度科技指数动态 PE 约 21 倍和 27.6 倍。 欧股再创新高。军工股持续大涨，特朗普希望减少美国对欧洲的防卫开支， 要求北约成员国将国防预算从 GDP 的 2%提高至 5%，投资者预期欧洲将增 加军费开支以自主承担更多安全责任。银行股领涨，估值优势和股票回购等 因素支撑银行股。年初以来，部分国际资金从美国科技股切换至欧洲股票， 令欧股跑赢美股。目前欧股仍有估值吸引力，欧元区斯托克指数 20 ...