Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$24.00, representing a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$20.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's expectations by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 788 million, up 41% year-on-year, also surpassing forecasts [1][2]. - The core OTA business revenue was RMB 3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, driven by strong performance in transportation ticketing and other services [2]. - The report anticipates stable growth in profits for the full year, with a projected 25% increase in operating profit and an 18% rise in non-GAAP net profit for the core OTA business in 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Total revenue was RMB 4.4 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 788 million, reflecting a 41% growth [1]. - The core OTA business saw revenue of RMB 3.8 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in transportation ticketing and accommodation services [2]. Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 4.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% [3]. - The report notes that while core OTA revenue growth may slow due to seasonal factors, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]. Profitability and Margins - The overall operating margin improved to 18.7% in Q1 2025, up from 11.8% in Q1 2024, with the core OTA business margin expanding to 29.2% [4]. - The report predicts continued expansion of the core OTA's non-GAAP operating margin to 25.5% in Q2 2025, supported by healthy revenue growth and optimized sales and marketing expenses [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit expectations remain largely unchanged [1][12]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 19.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BaTeLab is reiterated as "Buy" with a target price maintained at HK$69.5, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current price of HK$50.70 [2][4]. Core Insights - BaTeLab successfully raised HK$120 million through a private placement, which will be used to enhance upstream manufacturing capabilities and for general operational funding. This is crucial for the company's future expansion in the industrial-grade analog IC market [1][2]. - The company is expected to experience robust revenue growth, with projected growth rates of 27%-33% from 2025 to 2027, alongside high profitability with expected gross margins of 53%-54% during the same period [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 770 million in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 216.7 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% [3][11]. - The company's P/E ratio is currently at 12.9x for FY25E, which is significantly lower than the average of 38x for domestic peers, indicating an attractive valuation [2][10]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholders include Li Zhen with 53.5% and Zhang Guangping with 39.5% of the shares [5]. Market Performance - Over the past month, BaTeLab's stock has shown a slight increase of 0.2%, while over three months, it has risen by 59.4% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is trading at a P/B ratio of 0.43, which is appealing compared to the industry average [2]. - The projected EPS for FY25E is RMB 3.61, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.9x, indicating strong earnings potential [3][11].

2025 年 5 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 40,852 | 0.34 | 36.98 | | 恒生工商业 | 13,444 | 0.23 | 45.60 | | 恒生地产 | 16,308 | -0.08 | -11.02 | | 恒生公用事业 | 36,849 | -0.20 | 12.09 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 行业点评 科技行业 - Computex 2025 总结：GB300 NVL72、液冷、GPU/SOCAMM 插槽、AI PC、DGX Spark Computex 2025 于 5 月 19 日至 23 日在台北举行，主要聚焦于 AI 服务器、AI PC 和散热/电源/连接器解决方案。以下为我们从主题演讲及展区走 ...

爱奇艺（IQ US；买入；目标价：2.45 美元）- 1Q25 业绩符合预期；加大营 销及内容投入影响短期利润率 爱奇艺公布 1Q25 业绩：总收入同比下降 9%，但环比增长 9%至 71.9 亿元， 符合一致预期；非 GAAP 营业利润同比下降 58%，但环比回升 13%至 4.59 亿元，符合一致预期。展望 2Q25，我们预计总收入环比基本持平，但非 GAAP 营业利润率将环比下降，主因公司加大对内容生态和微剧获客的投入。 我们认为公司在微剧领域的投入短期会对利润率产生影响，但长期来看将完 善爱奇艺内容生态，并创造增量变现机会。鉴于短期利润率压力，我们下调 FY25-27 年费 GAAP 盈利预测至 7 亿/15 亿/18 亿元（前值：14 亿/16 亿/18 亿元）。我们将目标价下调至 2.45 美元，基于 13x 3Q25-2Q26E non-GAAP EPS（前值：2.60 美元，基于 13x FY25E PE）。公司当前估值仅对应 8x FY26E PE，相较同行仍然有安全边际。维持买入评级。（链接） Boss 直聘（BZ US；买入；目标价：21.0 美元）- 招聘需求维持韧性；全年 盈利指引不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kanzhun Limited, with a target price adjusted to $21.00, reflecting a 17.3% increase from the previous target price of $19.50 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 1.92 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, which aligns with market expectations. The non-GAAP net profit increased by 44% to RMB 764 million, exceeding market expectations by 11 percentage points due to strong operational leverage and effective cost control [1][2]. - For Q2 2025, management anticipates a revenue growth of 6.9%-8.5%, projecting total revenue between RMB 20.5 billion and RMB 20.8 billion, consistent with market expectations [1][2]. - The company remains optimistic about achieving its full-year non-GAAP operating profit target of RMB 3 billion despite macroeconomic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 8.098 billion, with a gross margin of 84.0% and an adjusted net profit of RMB 3.207 billion, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year growth [4][10]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin is expected to be 25.3% for FY25E, with a continued focus on efficiency and cost control [3][10]. User Growth and Market Demand - The total number of paid enterprise clients reached 6.4 million, a 12% increase year-on-year, indicating resilient recruitment demand despite macroeconomic challenges [2]. - The company added over 15 million verified users from January to April 2025, with daily active users increasing by 24% year-on-year to 57.6 million [2]. Artificial Intelligence Strategy - The company is making steady progress in artificial intelligence, enhancing recruitment efficiency by 25% through AI functionalities, while maintaining caution regarding large-scale deployment to avoid replacing human recruiters [2][3]. Financial Summary - The financial outlook shows a consistent increase in revenue and profitability, with projected revenues growing from RMB 5.952 billion in FY23A to RMB 8.098 billion in FY25E, alongside a steady improvement in gross margins [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baozun, with a target price adjusted to US$3.55, reflecting a potential upside of 15.3% from the current price of US$3.08 [1][3]. Core Insights - Baozun reported a total revenue of RMB2.1 billion for 1Q25, representing a 4% year-over-year increase, which is 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates. The growth was primarily driven by a 23% year-over-year increase in Baozun Brand Management (BBM) revenue, while Baozun E-commerce (BEC) saw a modest growth of 1.4% year-over-year [1]. - The company is focusing on improving operating efficiency rather than expanding its business for the BEC segment, with expectations of over 20% year-over-year growth in non-GAAP operating profit for 2025 [1]. - The BBM segment is projected to achieve non-GAAP operating profit breakeven by 4Q25, supported by strong performances from brands like Gap and Hunter [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, total revenue is expected to reach RMB9.662 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 2.5%. The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB88.5 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB65.1 million in FY23A [2][11]. - The report indicates a non-GAAP operating profit forecast of RMB119 million for Baozun in 2025, with a focus on improving margins across its business segments [1][11]. - The company’s financial metrics show a projected return on equity (ROE) of 0.4% in FY25E, improving to 1.8% by FY26E [2][11]. Segment Performance - In 1Q25, BEC revenue grew by 1.4% year-over-year to RMB1.7 billion, while BBM revenue surged by 23% year-over-year to RMB387 million, driven by strong brand performance [1][8]. - The report anticipates BEC to achieve a non-GAAP operating profit growth of 33% year-over-year in 2Q25E, with an improvement in non-GAAP operating margin to 3.8% [1][8]. - The BBM segment is expected to narrow its losses to RMB40 million in 2Q25E, compared to a loss of RMB50 million in the same quarter last year [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for iQIYI, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - iQIYI's total revenue for 1Q25 declined by 9% year-over-year but increased by 9% quarter-over-quarter to RMB7.19 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - Non-GAAP operating income fell by 58% year-over-year but saw a recovery of 13% quarter-over-quarter to RMB459 million, also in line with consensus [1]. - The company is increasing investments in its content ecosystem and micro-drama user acquisition, which is expected to impact short-term margins but may provide long-term monetization opportunities [1][6]. - The target price for iQIYI has been adjusted to US$2.45, down from US$2.60, based on a 13x multiple of projected non-GAAP EPS for 3Q25-2Q26 [1][9]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB28.49 billion, RMB28.95 billion, and RMB29.37 billion respectively, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB0.73 billion, RMB1.55 billion, and RMB1.78 billion respectively, indicating a significant downward revision due to short-term margin pressures [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 23.1% in FY25E, with a gradual recovery to 26.1% by FY27E [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - iQIYI's current trading at 8x FY26E PE suggests a safety margin compared to peers, despite the intense competition in China's video streaming sector [1][9]. - The company has made significant progress in its micro-drama ecosystem, with over 15,000 titles available, half of which are free and the other half exclusive to members [6]. Financial Performance - Membership services revenue decreased by 8% year-over-year but grew by 7% quarter-over-quarter to RMB4.40 billion in 1Q25, supported by key titles [6]. - Online advertising revenue fell by 10% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to RMB1.33 billion, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin was down to 6.4% in 1Q25, a decrease of 7.3 percentage points year-over-year, driven by increased content and user acquisition investments [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xpeng Inc. with a target price of US$28.00 for ADR and HK$110.00 for H-shares, indicating an upside potential of 42.2% and 41.8% respectively from current prices [3][7]. Core Views - Xpeng's 1Q25 earnings exceeded expectations due to improved gross profit margin (GPM) and government subsidies, leading to an optimistic outlook for sales volume and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven at the net level by 3Q25, supported by increased R&D investments and new model rollouts [1][7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in sales volume and GPM for FY25, with a revised forecast of 460,000 units sold, reflecting a 20,000 unit increase from previous estimates [7][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are raised to RMB 86,862 million, representing a 112.6% year-over-year growth [2][9]. - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB 13,971 million in FY25E, with a gross margin of 16.1% [9][11]. - The net loss forecast for FY25E has been revised down to RMB 907.2 million, a significant improvement from previous estimates [9][11]. - For FY26E, net profit is projected at RMB 3,683 million, reflecting a positive trajectory in profitability [9][11]. Earnings Performance - In 1Q25, Xpeng reported a revenue of RMB 15,811 million, a 141.5% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 15.6% [8][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in 1Q25 was RMB 168,184, showing a decline of 44.0% compared to the previous year [8][11]. - The company’s net loss for 1Q25 was RMB 664 million, which was narrower than expected, indicating improving financial health [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a P/S ratio of 1.6 for FY25E, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [2][9]. - The P/B ratio is projected to be 4.4 for FY25E, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential [2][9]. - The report justifies a higher valuation based on Xpeng's leading AI capabilities and clearer profit growth path [7][9].

Group 1: Company Insights - Northern Huachuang (002371 CH, Buy, Target Price: 512 RMB) is expected to see a 25% year-on-year increase in new orders in 2024, driven by strong demand for integrated circuit equipment, with this momentum continuing into Q1 2025 [2] - Baidu (BIDU US, Buy, Target Price: 144.6 USD) reported Q1 2025 core business revenue of 25.5 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 10%, primarily due to strong cloud business performance [2][6] - Weibo (WB US, Buy, Target Price: 14.5 USD) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 397 million USD, flat year-on-year, but non-GAAP net profit grew 12% to 120 million USD, exceeding expectations by 26% [6] - Palo Alto Networks (PANW US, Buy, Target Price: 229.7 USD) achieved Q3 FY25 revenue growth of 15.3% to 2.3 billion USD, with non-GAAP net profit rising 23% to 560.9 million USD [6] - ZTO Express (ZTO US / 2057 HK, Buy, Target Price: 22.2 USD / 174 HKD) reported Q1 2025 core net profit growth of 5% to 1.96 billion RMB, supported by government subsidies [6][8] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US / 9868 HK, Buy, Target Price: 28 USD / 110 HKD) exceeded Q1 2025 revenue expectations, driven by improved gross margins and government subsidies [6][8] Group 2: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,828, up 0.62% for the day and 39.77% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,342, up 0.51% for the day and 41.92% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,388, up 0.21% for the day and 13.87% year-to-date [3] - The US Dow Jones closed at 41,860, down 1.91% for the day but up 11.07% year-to-date [3] - The S&P 500 closed at 5,845, down 1.61% for the day and up 22.53% year-to-date [3] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market saw gains in materials, healthcare, and energy sectors, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities lagged [5] - In the US market, real estate and healthcare sectors faced the largest declines, while consumer staples and materials outperformed [5] - The report indicates that the period from May to July is a critical window for US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of potential fiscal stimulus and consumption-boosting measures from China [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Naura Technology, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Naura Technology's new orders increased by approximately 25% year-over-year in 2024, driven by strong integrated circuit (IC) orders, with continued momentum into the first quarter of 2025 [1]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio through internal R&D and external acquisitions, including a planned acquisition of a 17.9% stake in Kingsemi, a photolithography coating equipment maker [1]. - Naura is positioned as a leading player in China's semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the country's push for semiconductor localization amid tightening export restrictions [1][9]. - The target price remains unchanged at RMB 512, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.8x for 2025 estimates, reflecting an 18.1% upside from the current price of RMB 433.66 [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 22,079 million in FY23A to RMB 38,909 million in FY25E, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3,899.1 million in FY23A to RMB 7,426.9 million in FY25E, with a year-over-year growth of 32.1% [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 41.1% in FY23A to 43.4% in FY25E, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2]. Market Context - The semiconductor equipment capital expenditure in China is estimated to exceed US$50 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand amid geopolitical uncertainties [9]. - Naura anticipates a normalization of demand for overseas products, which may create more opportunities for local vendors [9]. - The company expects investment in domestic mature nodes to stabilize over the next 2-3 years, while advanced logic and memory segments are projected to drive future growth [9].