Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alibaba, with a target price of US$157.00, reflecting a potential upside of 49.8% from the current price of US$104.78 [2][9]. Core Insights - Alibaba is expected to achieve in-line revenue growth and adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25, driven by strong GMV growth and improved monetization rates in its core domestic e-commerce business [1][5]. - The cloud business is anticipated to see accelerated year-over-year revenue growth, supported by robust public cloud performance and contributions from AI cloud services [1][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI era and potential consumption stimulus policies, with non-core businesses projected to reach profitability within 1-2 years [1][5]. Financial Performance - For 4QFY25, Alibaba's revenue is estimated at RMB237.5 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITA is forecasted to rise by 36% year-over-year to RMB32.6 billion, resulting in a 13.7% adjusted EBITA margin [5]. - The customer management revenue (CMR) is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year, driven by GMV growth and increased monetization rates [5]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is projected to achieve 18% year-over-year revenue growth, while AIDC is expected to grow by 26% year-over-year [5]. Earnings Summary - Revenue forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB996.979 billion, RMB1,090.438 billion, and RMB1,173.876 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.9%, 9.4%, and 7.7% [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB160.356 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB65.53 [6][8]. Valuation - The target price of US$157.00 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, translating to 16.9x FY25E PE (non-GAAP) [9]. - The valuation includes contributions from various segments, with Taobao and Tmall Group valued at US$80.8 per ADS and the Cloud Intelligence Group at US$33.1 per ADS [9][10].

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Buy" for companies with strong domestic substitution potential, such as SMIC (981 HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK), and Northern Huachuang (002371 CH) [2][3][8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate due to increasing geopolitical risks and potential new tariffs from the U.S. [2][3] - Companies involved in wafer foundry, semiconductor equipment manufacturing, and chip design, particularly those focusing on artificial intelligence and analog semiconductors, are likely to benefit from this trend [2][3] - The report anticipates significant volatility in global stock markets in the near term, prompting investors to seek safer investment strategies, such as high-dividend defensive stocks [2] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Manufacturing - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is not currently affected by the new tariffs, but future policies may impact overseas demand for Chinese companies' foundry services. Local foundries are expected to benefit from a recovery in downstream demand and an increase in orders returning to China. Recommended stocks include Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK, Buy) [3][4] Semiconductor Equipment - Although semiconductor equipment is included in the tariff scope, Chinese manufacturers have minimal exposure to U.S. revenues, suggesting limited impact. European semiconductor equipment companies may face greater challenges. Recommended stock is Northern Huachuang (002371 CH, Buy) [3][4] Semiconductor Chip Design (Logic Chips) - Logic chip design companies are expected to benefit from the trend of localization, with a focus on self-sufficiency in artificial intelligence. However, some advanced process logic chips may still face foundry risks [3] Semiconductor Chip Design (Analog Chips) - Analog chip design companies are also expected to benefit from increased domestic substitution. Recommended stocks include Zhaoxin Microelectronics (300782 CH, Hold) and Beike Microelectronics (2149 HK, Buy), as domestic companies are likely to have a stronger desire to replace U.S. firms like Texas Instruments and ADI [3][4] Overall Market Outlook - Companies with significant revenue from the U.S. may face stock price pressure in the short term due to tariff impacts. In the medium to long term, tariffs could delay downstream demand recovery and lead to order cancellations, affecting the global semiconductor supply chain. Companies benefiting from domestic substitution and self-sufficiency are expected to perform better [3][4]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.51% and the S&P 500 declining by 1.57% [1][3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed with a 3.79% increase year-to-date [1] Industry Insights Internet Industry - Companies with defensive attributes and those benefiting from domestic demand are expected to perform well under current market conditions [4] - Recommended stocks include NetEase (NTES US) and Tencent Music (TME US) for their growth potential in gaming and music sectors [4] - Ctrip (TCOM US) and Meituan (3690 HK) are highlighted for their resilience in domestic and outbound travel demand [4] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. has announced "reciprocal tariffs," which may lead to additional tariffs on the semiconductor sector [5] - The trend towards domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting companies like Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) and North Huachuang (002371 CH) [5] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong domestic replacement capabilities, especially in AI and analog semiconductor sectors [5] Insurance Industry - Recent regulatory changes allow for an increase in equity investment limits for insurance funds, potentially injecting an estimated CNY 1.66 trillion into the stock market [6][7] - The new regulations raise the equity asset allocation limit to 50%, which could significantly enhance the investment capacity of insurance companies [6][7] - The core equity assets of listed insurance companies are expected to increase, reflecting a shift towards higher-yielding stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [8] Engineering Machinery Industry - Strong sales growth in excavators and wheel loaders was reported, with domestic sales increasing by 29% and 23% year-on-year, respectively [8] - Companies like SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH) and Zoomlion (1157 HK) are recommended due to their strong market positions and sales performance [8] Company Analysis Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - The company faces challenges due to new U.S. tariffs, which could significantly impact its revenue, as the U.S. market accounts for nearly 30% of its total income [9][10] - The rating has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of CNY 51, reflecting concerns over future profitability [9][10] Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile (175 HK), Xpeng Motors (XPEV US), and Tencent (700 HK), all showing significant upside potential based on current valuations [11]

2025 年 4 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 科技行业 - 美国关税影响更新：市场波动后对相关问题的解答 继上周发布的报告之后，我们收到了若干投资者提问，我们的回答如下：1） "美国原产部件含量 20%"关税豁免：尽管美国芯片（如高通 SoC/英特尔 CPU/英伟达 GPU）占智能手机/PC/服务器进口产品关税价值的 20%以上， 但我们认为该定义是指在美制造而不是由美国制造，因此这些"美国制造" SoC/CPU/GPU 芯片除非在美国境内制造（如英特尔 CPU），否则不能豁免。 2）中国对美征收 34%关税的影响：我们认为国内 PC 供应链（如联想）可 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | ...

Employment Data - In March, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 140,000[1] - The private sector saw job growth increase from 116,000 in February to 209,000 in March[4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% in February to 4.2% in March, with a minimal actual increase from 4.14% to 4.15%[4] Economic Outlook - Despite strong job growth, recession risks are rising due to potential tariff impacts and market signals indicating economic downturn[4] - Financial markets have issued recession warnings, with the S&P 500 index falling over 20%, marking a bear market[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in June or July, with another potential cut in September or December[1][4] Sector Performance - Job growth in the service sector surged from 90,000 to 197,000, driven by improved weather and the end of strikes in retail and healthcare[4] - Durable goods manufacturing jobs decreased, with mining and durable goods manufacturing losing 2,000 and 3,000 jobs respectively[4] - Government employment rebounded from 1,000 to 19,000, although federal government jobs decreased by 4,000[4]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 53.5 in February to 50.8 in March, below the market expectation of 52.9, indicating a slowdown in service sector expansion[2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.3 in February to 49 in March, also below the expected 49.5, signaling a return to contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] Demand and Employment Trends - The New Orders Index for services decreased from 52.2 to 50.4, nearing a nine-month low, reflecting weakened demand[2] - The Employment Index for services plummeted from 53.9 to 46.2, marking the first contraction in six months, indicating reduced hiring demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Price Index for services remained elevated, decreasing slightly from 62.6 to 60.9, while the Manufacturing Price Index surged from 62.4 to 69.4, the highest since June 2022, suggesting significant inflationary pressures[2] - The report indicates that inflation may rise initially due to supply cost increases but could decline later as economic slowdown and demand contraction take precedence[1] Market Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The report suggests a risk of stagflation in the short term, with potential for the S&P 500 to decline further, especially if it drops more than 20%[1] - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in June or July, with another potential cut in September or December, in response to rising recession risks and market volatility[1]

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows signs of short-term stagflation risk as the March services PMI fell more than expected, with demand and employment weakening significantly while the price index continues to expand [2] - The trade war is expected to elevate the risk of stagflation followed by recession, as rising supply costs and inflation expectations outweigh the effects of demand contraction [2] - The S&P 500 index has issued a recession warning after dropping over 20%, leading to expectations that the Trump administration may slow down aggressive tariffs and government spending cuts while accelerating tax cuts and deregulation [2] Industry Insights Technology Sector - The new tariffs imposed by the US on imports are expected to have a limited direct impact on component suppliers, as most do not export directly to the US [5] - However, OEM/ODM companies will face direct impacts due to assembly operations primarily located in China, Vietnam, and India [5] - Apple is anticipated to be the most affected brand, with over 40% of its sales in the US, while Xiaomi's impact is expected to be minimal due to its limited revenue exposure in the US market [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing weak overall growth, with average revenue growth at 4.2% and net profit growth at 1.0% for 142 listed companies [6] - The innovative drug sector is performing well, with average revenue growth of 36.8%, driven by favorable healthcare payment environments and overseas licensing revenues [6] - The medical device sector shows stability with an average revenue growth of 8.9% and net profit growth of 2.6%, despite ongoing price pressures from procurement policies [7] Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is witnessing a divergence in profitability, with companies like Xpeng and Geely expected to outperform due to strong sales and reduced discounts [8] - The average discount in the industry has narrowed slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing strategies among leading brands [8] - New model launches during the Shanghai Auto Show are anticipated to boost sales in the second quarter of 2025 [8] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xiaomi, and BYD Electronics, which are expected to benefit from current market conditions and potential recovery in their respective sectors [13]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,203, down 0.02% for the day but up 36.11% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the US rose by 0.67% and 0.87% respectively, while European markets experienced declines, particularly in healthcare and real estate sectors [3] Company Analysis 用友 (Yonyou) - Reported total revenue of 9.2 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, attributed to macroeconomic headwinds and a strategic shift towards subscription models [4] - Net loss expanded to 2.1 billion RMB from 967 million RMB in 2023, primarily due to reduced revenue and increased costs related to employee compensation and goodwill impairment [4] - Target price adjusted to 14.49 RMB based on a 2025E EV/sales multiple of 5.3x, maintaining a "Hold" rating [4] 新希望服务 (New Hope Service) - Achieved a revenue increase of 17% to 1.48 billion RMB in 2024, exceeding expectations by 5% [4] - Net profit rose by 5% to 230 million RMB, driven by a 29% increase in basic property management revenue [4] - Target price set at 2.67 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating, with a projected dividend yield of 9.7% for FY25E [4] 滨江服务 (Binjiang Service) - Revenue grew by 28% to 3.6 billion RMB, surpassing estimates by 3% [5] - Net profit increased by 11% to 550 million RMB, with a core net profit growth of 21% to 600 million RMB after adjusting for tax impacts [6] - Target price adjusted to 32.86 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating, with a projected dividend yield of 7.0% for FY25E [6] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.39% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a decline of 14.03% [2] - The technology sector within the Hang Seng Index performed well, with a year-to-date increase of 44.16% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Yonyou, with a target price (TP) raised to RMB14.49 from RMB9.08, reflecting a 5.3x 2025E EV/sales valuation, in line with its two-year average [1][3][9]. Core Insights - Yonyou's total revenue for 2024 was RMB9.2 billion, a decrease of 7% year-over-year (YoY), primarily due to postponed customer demand and a strategic shift towards a subscription business model [1][2]. - The net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders increased to RMB2.1 billion in 2024 from RMB967 million in 2023, driven by revenue decline, employee compensation, and goodwill impairment provisions [1][2]. - Management aims for significant loss reduction in 2025 by enhancing labor productivity and improving product delivery quality and efficiency [1]. - Despite a positive long-term outlook due to increasing digitalization demand and international expansion plans, caution is advised in the near term due to already priced-in market sentiment following a 40% stock price increase year-to-date [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 18% to RMB9.982 billion and RMB11.081 billion, respectively, reflecting slower-than-expected growth in large and mid-sized enterprises [9][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 55.0% in 2025, up from 47.5% in 2024, while the operating margin is projected to remain negative at -5.3% [10][16]. - The number of employees decreased by 15% YoY to 21,283, which is anticipated to enhance labor productivity and operational efficiency [9][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB9.982 billion, with a YoY growth of 9.1%, followed by RMB11.081 billion in 2026, representing an 11.0% growth [2][15]. - The net profit is projected to improve to a loss of RMB426 million in 2025, narrowing from a loss of RMB2.061 billion in 2024, and is expected to turn positive with a profit of RMB768 million by 2027 [2][15]. Market and Share Performance - Yonyou's market capitalization stands at RMB51.22 billion, with a current share price of RMB14.99, reflecting a slight downside of 3.4% from the target price [3][4]. - The stock has shown a strong performance with a 47.4% increase over the past three months [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for New Hope Services with a target price revised down by 4% to HK$2.67, reflecting lower earnings forecasts [1][8]. Core Insights - New Hope Services' FY24 revenue grew 17% YoY to RMB 1,480 million, exceeding CMBI estimates by 5%, driven by stable managed GFA growth and strong retail & catering services [1][8]. - Net profit increased by 5% YoY to RMB 230 million, aligning with the company's guidance, despite a decline in gross margin and a reduction in SG&A ratio [1][8]. - The company reported impressive third-party expansion, with new contract value reaching RMB 600 million, a 192% increase YoY, and expects FY25 third-party expansion to rise by 16% to RMB 700 million [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue: RMB 1,481 million, a 17.5% increase YoY [2]. - FY24 net profit: RMB 227 million, a 5% increase YoY [2]. - EPS for FY24: RMB 0.28, reflecting a 5.5% growth YoY [2]. - Average PM fee for new third-party projects rose by 51% to RMB 2.63, indicating a shift towards higher-end projects [1][8]. - The company expects a dividend yield of 9.6% in 2025E based on the current price [1][8]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY25E: RMB 1,644 million, with a YoY growth of 11% [2][10]. - Net profit projections for FY25E: RMB 250 million, with a YoY growth of 10.4% [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 29.5% in FY25E from 30.4% in FY24A [10][11]. Shareholder Structure - Golden Rose Developments holds a 66.9% stake in New Hope Services, indicating a strong controlling interest [4]. Market Data - Current market capitalization: HK$ 1,619.9 million [3]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 6.0x for FY25E [3][11]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a 1.5% decline over the past month and a 0.5% increase over the past three months [5].