Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 168.08 RMB, representing a potential upside of 19.6% from the current price of 140.52 RMB [3][6][12]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional equipment manufacturer to a smart imaging solution provider by deeply integrating AI applications into its product line, enhancing diagnostic support and data processing capabilities [1][6]. - The collaboration with its AI subsidiary, United Imaging Intelligence, is expected to strengthen the company's competitive edge in the medical imaging market, particularly through the "Device + AI" synergy [1][12]. - The report anticipates a recovery in performance due to ongoing medical equipment tender activities and a favorable policy environment for equipment upgrades and AI application penetration [13][12]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 9,238 - FY23A: 11,411 (27.4% YoY growth) - FY24E: 10,852 (-4.9% YoY decline) - FY25E: 13,194 (21.6% YoY growth) - FY26E: 16,097 (22.0% YoY growth) [2] - **Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 1,650.1 - FY23A: 1,977.8 (17.6% YoY growth) - FY24E: 1,573.1 (-20.5% YoY decline) - FY25E: 2,123.9 (35.0% YoY growth) - FY26E: 2,611.4 (23.0% YoY growth) [2] - **Adjusted Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 1,328 - FY23A: 1,665 - FY24E: 1,342 - FY25E: 1,962 - FY26E: 2,449 [2] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: - FY23A: 58.6 - FY24E: 73.6 - FY25E: 54.5 - FY26E: 44.3 [2] Market Position and Shareholder Structure - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 106.26 billion RMB and a significant shareholder structure, with United Imaging Technology Group holding 20.3% and Shanghai United Investment Co., Ltd. holding 16.4% [3][4]. - The company has shown strong stock performance, with a 33.5% absolute return over six months [5]. AI Integration and Product Development - United Imaging Intelligence has developed over 100 AI medical products, with numerous certifications including 12 NMPA Class III certificates and 15 FDA approvals, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI medical imaging sector [6][7]. - The integration of AI algorithms into imaging devices enhances operational efficiency and image quality, positioning the company favorably in the market [8][11]. Future Outlook - The report projects a significant recovery in the company's performance in 2025, driven by a resurgence in medical equipment tenders and a supportive policy environment for AI applications in healthcare [13][12]. - The DCF model used in the report estimates a per-share value of 168.08 RMB, based on a WACC of 9.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.1% [18].

行业点评 科技行业 -工业富联2024业绩解读：2025年AI服务器需求依旧强劲 工业富联（601138 CH，未评级）2024年业绩快报显示，收入/净利润同比增长28/10%，受益于云计算和品 牌客户对AI服务器需求驱动云计算业务强劲增长，以及通用服务器市场复苏。展望2025年上半年，尽管市场担 心DeepSeek的影响会导致计算需求放缓，但我们仍然对全球人工智能基础设施投资加速以及GB200/GB300 AI服务器机架增长持正面看法，全球主要CSP 用于2025年算力投入和大模型升级的资本支出指引可作为明 证。我们相信AI服务器供应链将继续受益，包括比亚迪电子、鸿腾精密和立讯精密。 中国保险行业 - 4Q24保险资金年化财务投资收益率连续第五个季度回升 保险资金规模：2024年全行业保险资金运用余额33.26万亿元，同比+15.1%，高于行业保费收入增速 11.2%；其中，人身险公司保险资金运用余额29.95万亿元，同比+15.8% （人身险保费收入增速13.3%）， 占比90.1%；财产险公司保险资金运用余额2.2万亿元，同比+9.7%（财产险保费收入增速5.3%），占比 6.7%。 投资收益率：4Q2 ...

Market Trends - Chinese stock market experienced a pullback on February 24, with technology, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors leading the decline in Hong Kong stocks[1] - U.S. investment policies are increasing risk aversion, benefiting defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities[1] - U.S. restrictions on investments in sensitive industries may prompt China to boost domestic demand, leading to a significant rise in the real estate sector[1] Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, while Treasury futures prices fell, indicating a potential tightening of monetary policy despite a fragile economic recovery[1] - The Chinese yuan remained stable, with the central bank showing intentions to stabilize the currency amid rising interest rates in the money market[1] Corporate Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized support for leading technology firms and strategic enterprises, indicating a continued focus on financing for tech companies[1] - The return of large Chinese companies to Hong Kong is ongoing, but smaller firms face challenges due to strategic, compliance, and regulatory issues[1] European Market Insights - European stocks saw a slight decline, with the German election results providing some clarity, while French stocks dragged down the overall market[2] - Germany's proposed €200 billion defense spending plan is expected to boost defense sector stocks, despite concerns over strict fiscal rules limiting structural deficits[2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets faced consecutive declines, particularly in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, while healthcare and financial sectors showed some resilience[3] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index fell into contraction territory, adding to signs of economic weakness in the U.S.[3] Commodity Movements - Oil prices saw a slight increase, supported by Iraq's compensation commitments, while gold prices reached new highs due to rising risk aversion and a weaker dollar[4] - Gold prices have increased by 12% year-to-date, with significant inflows into gold ETFs marking the largest since 2022[4]

2025 年 2 月 21 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 宏观经济及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 中国经济 - 特朗普 2.0 时期人民币汇率展望 我们预计美元/人民币将于 2025/2026/2027 年底达到 7.48/7.33/7.55，而彭 博调查市场对 2025/2026 年底的预测中位数为 7.45/7.35。未来三年美元兑人 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,577 | -1.60 | 32.44 | | 恒生国企 | 8,323 | -1.66 | 44.28 | | 恒生科技 | 5,500 | -3.04 | 46.11 | | 上证综指 | 3,351 | -0.02 | 12.63 | | 深证综指 | 2,057 | 0.55 | 11.91 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,226 | -0.06 | 17.67 | | 美国道琼 ...

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Investment Policy - Trump's "America First" investment policy emphasizes national security, increasing restrictions on cross-border investments in sensitive industries, which may weaken international investor confidence[1] - The policy is expected to reduce U.S. cross-border investment activities with non-allied countries, slightly lowering U.S. GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026[3] - The restrictions may lead to a decrease in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), which have historically accounted for 1%-1.5% of GDP over the past decade[1] Group 2: Effects on China - The policy will negatively impact China’s cross-border investment activities, potentially reducing China's GDP growth, particularly in the outward-oriented sectors, with FDI and securities investment flows between China and the U.S. averaging 0.5%-1% of GDP from 2014 to 2023[3] - China is likely to increase domestic demand support and accelerate technological self-reliance, while enhancing trade and investment ties with non-U.S. regions[1] - Despite short-term negative impacts on market confidence, China's GDP growth is projected to remain around 5% for the year, with Q4 2024 expected to rise to 5.4%[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price raised to HK$202.5 from the previous HK$115.0, indicating an upside potential of 18.6% from the current price of HK$170.70 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music reported a total revenue of RMB7.95 billion for FY24, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, which aligns with consensus estimates. Adjusted net profit surged by 108% year-over-year to RMB1.70 billion, exceeding consensus by 20%, primarily due to enhanced profitability in the online music segment and effective operational expense control [1][2]. - The company plans to focus on improving user experience to unlock long-term growth opportunities in FY25E, with expectations of a 15% year-over-year growth in online music services revenue driven by subscriber growth [1][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved significantly, rising by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year to 32.4% in the second half of FY24, with forecasts indicating further GPM expansion to 35.4% in FY25 [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: FY24 revenue was RMB7.95 billion, with projections of RMB8.08 billion for FY25E and RMB8.77 billion for FY26E, indicating a gradual recovery and growth trajectory [2][11]. - **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from RMB1.70 billion in FY24 to RMB1.88 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net margins improving from 21.1% in 2H24 to 23.3% in FY25E [2][6][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report values NetEase Cloud Music at a P/E of 21x for FY25E, which is at a discount compared to global peers, reflecting the competitive landscape in China's online content sector [8][9]. User Engagement and Market Strategy - The company has seen steady growth in monthly active users (MAUs) and user engagement, attributed to a distinctive content ecosystem and improved personalized recommendations [5]. - Key initiatives for FY25E include enriching the content library, fostering community development, enhancing user experience to drive payment willingness, and improving operational efficiency [5][6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - NetEase Cloud Music's online music services revenue increased by 20% year-over-year in the second half of FY24, with membership subscriptions growing by 19% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company has adopted a more prudent operational approach, particularly in social entertainment, leading to a 33% year-over-year decline in related revenue as it focuses on its core music business [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price of HK$94.0, implying a potential upside of 62.1% from the current price of HK$58.0 [1][7]. Core Insights - AIA's share price fell 17.3% in FY24, underperforming key benchmarks despite resilient Value of New Business (VNB) growth and a solid financial position [1]. - The report anticipates a 20% increase in full-year VNB on a Constant Exchange Rate (CER) basis, with Group Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) expected to grow 7% YoY in FY24 [1][7]. - Total shareholder return is projected to rise to approximately 8% in FY24, driven by a 3% dividend yield and around 5% return from buybacks [1][7]. Financial Performance - AIA's VNB is expected to reach US$4.77 billion in FY24, reflecting a 20% increase on a CER basis, with a slowdown in growth anticipated in the second half of the year [7]. - Group OPAT is projected to increase to US$6.639 billion in FY24, with a corresponding Operating EPS of US$0.59 [8]. - The report highlights a significant buyback program completion of US$12 billion, with expectations for a new buyback announcement in mid-March 2025 [1][7]. Market Position - AIA's share price performance has lagged behind major indices, with the stock trading at 1.0x FY25E Price to Embedded Value (P/EV), near historical lows [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustained long-term value growth to enhance investor confidence and facilitate further buybacks [7]. Shareholder Returns - The report indicates that AIA's management remains focused on shareholder returns, with an estimated US$3.5 billion allocated for buybacks in FY24 [7]. - The underlying free surplus generation is projected to be US$6.7 billion, up 11% YoY, which could strengthen the Group's capital position for additional shareholder paybacks [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price set at HKD 202.5, based on a 21x P/E ratio for FY2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music reported a total revenue of RMB 7.95 billion for FY2024, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth, in line with expectations. Adjusted net profit surged by 108% to RMB 1.7 billion, exceeding expectations by 20%, primarily due to improved profitability in the online music segment and effective cost control [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance user experience to unlock long-term growth opportunities, focusing on content library expansion, community development, user payment willingness, and operational efficiency [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the overall gross margin increased by 3.6 percentage points to 32.4%, driven by improved revenue monetization and prudent cost management. The gross margin is projected to further increase to 35.4% in FY2025 [3][4]. - The online music service revenue for the second half of FY2024 grew by 20% year-over-year, reaching RMB 2.8 billion, with subscription revenue increasing by 19% to RMB 2.3 billion [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit margin for FY2024 was 21.1%, up by 8.8 percentage points year-over-year [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 8.08 billion in FY2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 1.6%, and projected to grow to RMB 9.28 billion by FY2027 [4][14]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 1.88 billion in FY2025, reflecting a 10.7% year-over-year growth [4][14]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The target price of HKD 202.5 is based on a lower P/E ratio compared to global peers, reflecting the competitive landscape in China's online content sector [10][11]. - The report highlights that the stock has shown significant price performance, with a 51.5% increase over the past month and an 82.5% increase over the past six months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of $26.40 per ADS, up from the previous target of $22.00 [1][5][27]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 77.3 billion for Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.53 billion, surpassing expectations by 15% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by strong performance in mobile gaming and advertising sectors, with mobile game revenue increasing by 79% year-on-year [2][3]. - The management has reiterated its long-term operating profit margin target of 15-20%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, total revenue is projected to grow by 19% to RMB 268 billion, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 99% to RMB 2.21 billion [1][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 total revenue to increase by 22% year-on-year, with mobile gaming, advertising, and value-added services (VAS) revenues expected to grow by 73%, 19%, and 10% respectively [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - VAS revenue grew by 8% to RMB 30.8 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue in Q4 2024, driven by increased premium membership and fan payment revenues [2]. - Advertising revenue increased by 24% to RMB 23.9 billion, representing 31% of total revenue, attributed to strong growth in performance advertising [2]. - Mobile gaming revenue surged by 79% to RMB 18 billion, making up 23% of total revenue, mainly due to new contributions [2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points to 36.1% in Q4 2024, while adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rose by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [3]. - For Q1 2025, adjusted OPM is expected to grow by 12 percentage points to 3.3% despite content investments for the Spring Festival Gala [3]. Valuation and Estimates - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the advertising business at $1.05 billion, VAS at $800 million, and mobile gaming at $800 million, with a total valuation of approximately $8.06 billion [16][17]. - The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB 30.42 billion, with a gross profit margin of 37.3% and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.75 billion [12][22].