2025 年 2 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 昨日（2 月 18 日）中国股票冲高回落。港股涨幅收窄，资讯科技、可选消费 与医疗保健板块领涨，地产与能源板块下跌，南向资金持续净买入 224 亿港 元。A 股回调，机器人、AI 医疗等近期热点概念股下跌，银行等防御性板块 逆势走强。中概股多数下跌。中国股票估值仍有吸引力，2025年恒生指数与 恒生科技指数动态 PE 约 10 倍和 18.5 倍，沪深 300 指数和创业板指数动态 PE 约 13.2 倍和 23.5 倍，而 MSCI 日本指数动态 PE 约 15.5 倍，MSCI 印度 指数和标普印度科技指数动态 PE 约 21 倍和 27.6 倍。 欧股再创新高。军工股持续大涨，特朗普希望减少美国对欧洲的防卫开支， 要求北约成员国将国防预算从 GDP 的 2%提高至 5%，投资者预期欧洲将增 加军费开支以自主承担更多安全责任。银行股领涨，估值优势和股票回购等 因素支撑银行股。年初以来，部分国际资金从美国科技股切换至欧洲股票， 令欧股跑赢美股。目前欧股仍有估值吸引力，欧元区斯托克指数 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for iQIYI, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - iQIYI reported inline 4Q24 results with total revenue declining by 14% YoY to RMB6.61 billion, which aligns with estimates [1]. - Non-GAAP operating income decreased by 56% YoY but increased by 10% QoQ to RMB406 million, slightly above the estimate of RMB395 million [1]. - The management anticipates a recovery in business performance in 1Q25, driven by the launch of several quality drama series [1]. - The target price has been adjusted to US$2.80 based on a 13x FY25E non-GAAP PE, down from the previous target of US$3.00 [1][11]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue is projected to decline by 9% YoY to RMB29.2 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin down by 3.8 percentage points YoY to 8.1% due to operating deleverage and content investment [1]. - Membership services revenue decreased by 15% YoY to RMB4.10 billion in 4Q24, primarily due to a weak content slate in the preceding months [8]. - Online advertising revenue fell by 13% YoY to RMB1.43 billion, mainly due to a decline in brand advertising revenue [8]. - The forecast for total revenue in 1Q25 is expected to grow by 7% QoQ but decline by 11% YoY to RMB7.07 billion [8]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - The revenue forecast for FY25 has been lowered by 4-7% due to a slower-than-expected recovery pace [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 is estimated at RMB1.5 billion, reflecting a decrease of 14.5% from previous estimates [9]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 24.9% in 2024 to 25.0% in 2025, while the non-GAAP operating margin is projected to rise from 8.1% in 2024 to 8.6% in 2025 [9]. Share Performance and Market Data - The current market capitalization of iQIYI is approximately US$2.22 billion, with a current price of US$2.31 and a target price of US$2.80, indicating an upside potential of 21.5% [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 18.8% and a 3-month performance of 10.3% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of USD 149.20, an increase of 3% from the previous target price of USD 144.60 [1][5]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 27.7 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3.5%. The annual core business revenue totaled RMB 104.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1][2]. - Cloud service revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, driven by strong AI-related GPU cloud revenue and cross-selling to CPU cloud and other cloud services. This growth trend is expected to continue into 2025 [1][2]. - The forecast for 2025 core search advertising revenue decline has been adjusted from 1.3% to 0.7%, indicating a smaller-than-expected impact from business adjustments [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Baidu's online advertising revenue was RMB 17.9 billion, a decline of 6.5% year-on-year but still above expectations. Approximately 22% of Baidu's search results were generated by generative AI [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for Q4 2024 was 16.8%, down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased AI-related investments and one-time losses of RMB 1 billion [4][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The report projects Baidu's total revenue for FY 2025 to be RMB 138.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 26.99 billion, showing no growth compared to FY 2024 [9][17]. - The cloud revenue growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from 13% to 26%, reflecting strong growth momentum [2][12]. Valuation - The SOTP valuation for Baidu is set at USD 149.2 per ADS, with contributions from core business, Apollo, and cloud services being significant components of this valuation [14][15]. - The core business is valued at USD 51.7 billion based on a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 5.0x for 2025, while the cloud segment is valued at USD 37.6 billion based on a 3.4x PS ratio for 2025 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Baidu, with a target price of US$149.20, representing a potential upside of 65.5% from the current price of US$90.16 [2][11]. Core Insights - Baidu's 4Q24 results showed Baidu Core revenue of RMB27.7 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3.5%. The non-GAAP operating profit for Baidu Core reached RMB4.6 billion, 1% above consensus [1]. - The cloud services revenue grew by 26% year-over-year, driven by strong AI-related GPU cloud revenue growth and cross-selling opportunities, indicating a sustainable growth trend into 2025 [1][5]. - The forecast for the core search ads business revenue decline has been narrowed to 0.7% for 2025, reflecting better-than-expected business adjustments [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, Baidu Core revenue totaled RMB104.7 billion, a 1.3% year-over-year increase, while non-GAAP operating profit was RMB23.9 billion, down 3% year-over-year [1][6]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is forecasted at RMB26.99 billion, with a slight decline of 0.0% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to grow by 4.3% to RMB138.8 billion [6][15]. - Non-GAAP operating profit margin for Baidu Core was 16.8% in 4Q24, with expectations of recovery alongside the ads business in 2H25 [1][5]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been raised by 1% to RMB138.8 billion, with a 4% increase in non-GAAP net profit forecast [1][9]. - The adjusted EPS for FY25 is projected at RMB77.17, with a P/E ratio of 10.3x [6][15]. - The gross margin is expected to be 51.0% for FY25, reflecting a slight improvement from previous estimates [9][15]. Share Performance and Valuation - Baidu's market capitalization stands at approximately US$31.53 billion, with a 52-week high of US$115.13 and a low of US$77.43 [2]. - The SOTP-based valuation indicates a contribution of US$51.7 for Baidu Core, US$37.6 for Baidu Cloud, and US$59.6 for net cash and other investments [11][12].

资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场，股价截至 17/2/2025上午11:20 如欲了解详尽个股分析，敬请参考英文版焦点股份：https://www.cmbi.com.hk/article/10967.html?lang=en 招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年2月17日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市盈率(倍) | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市净率(倍) | ROE (%) | 股息率 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | ( ...

2025 年 2 月 17 日 ` 每日投资策略 全球市场观察、宏观经济及公司点评 全球市场观察 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 宏观经济 中国经济 - 信贷需求逐渐复苏 1 月社会融资规模和新增人民币贷款增速均好于市场预期，显示信贷需求逐渐复 苏。政府债券发行依然强劲，企业信贷需求小幅改善。去年 4 季度以来，三大先 行指标包括股市、信贷和一二线城市均开始改善，预示 2025 年中国经济可能出 现短期复苏。未来中国货币政策将保持宽松，以进一步支持国内经济复苏和对冲 特朗普 2.0 冲击。2025 年中国可能下调存款准备金率 50 个基点，下调 LPR 20- 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,620 | 3.69 | 32.69 | | 恒生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with a target price of US$230.30, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of US$200.03 [1][3]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks reported solid results for 2QFY25, with total revenue increasing by 14.3% year-over-year to US$2.26 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 1% [1]. - Non-GAAP net income for the same period reached US$566 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth and exceeding consensus by 4%, driven by optimized sales and marketing spending [1]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary in the Gen-AI era, with expected growth in demand for security solutions due to increased AI-related deployments [1]. - The FY25-27 revenue and non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards by 0-2% and 1-3% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected growth [1]. Financial Performance - For FY25, total revenue is projected to be between US$9.14 billion and US$9.19 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) expected to be between 28.0% and 28.5% [8]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is forecasted to be between US$2.286 billion and US$2.286 billion, with a diluted non-GAAP EPS of US$3.18 to US$3.24 [8][10]. - Subscription and support revenue grew by 16% year-over-year to US$1.8 billion, accounting for 81% of total revenue [8]. Key Operating Metrics - The number of active SASE customers increased by 20% year-over-year to over 5,600, with the number of SASE deals exceeding US$1 million rising 2.5 times year-over-year [8]. - Total bookings across Cortex & Prisma Cloud grew approximately 50% year-over-year, with cumulative XSIAM bookings surpassing US$1 billion [8]. - The company achieved 1,150 total Platformizations among its top 5,000 customers, with significant growth in large deal wins [8]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Palo Alto Networks is approximately US$141.23 billion, with an average turnover of US$935.6 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of 17.3% and a 6-month performance of 17.7% [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are US$9.188 billion, US$10.705 billion, and US$12.409 billion respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 14.5%, 16.5%, and 15.9% [2][14]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25 is expected to be US$2.286 billion, with a growth rate of 17.4% year-over-year [2][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 25.2 times FY25 earnings [1][4][19]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to see a significant net profit increase of 130-145% year-on-year for FY24, reaching between RMB 17 billion and 18.2 billion, driven by the recovery in the global smartphone market and product upgrades across various segments [1][2]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends such as AI and foldable smartphones, as well as new orders in automotive audio systems from major clients like Xiaomi and Huawei [1][3][4]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in FY25, with a gross profit margin (GPM) target of 22-25% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY22 revenue was RMB 20.625 billion, with a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while FY23 revenue slightly declined by 1% to RMB 20.419 billion. For FY24, revenue is expected to increase by 35.2% to RMB 27.613 billion, followed by FY25 and FY26 with projected revenues of RMB 31.383 billion and RMB 34.183 billion respectively [5][23]. - Net profit for FY22 was RMB 821.3 million, which decreased by 37.6% year-on-year. In FY24, net profit is expected to rebound significantly to RMB 1.776 billion, with further growth to RMB 2.273 billion in FY25 and RMB 2.751 billion in FY26 [5][23]. Earnings Estimates - The report revises FY24-26 earnings per share (EPS) estimates upward by 1-4%, reflecting improvements in optical, acoustic, and MEMS sectors [1][19]. - The new EPS estimates for FY24, FY25, and FY26 are RMB 1.51, RMB 1.93, and RMB 2.34 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.9, 22.6, and 18.7 [5][19]. Market Position and Catalysts - AAC Tech is positioned to capitalize on the launch of AI and foldable smartphones, new AI smart glasses, and automotive audio orders, which are expected to drive future growth [1][4][19]. - The report highlights the importance of product upgrades in various segments, including acoustic, MEMS, thermal management, and optical, as key growth drivers [1][3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Datadog (DDOG US), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Datadog's total revenue for 4Q24 was US$737.7 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus forecasts [1]. - The company is entering an investment phase aimed at driving long-term growth, with management planning to increase spending on sales and marketing (S&M) and research and development (R&D) in 2025 [1][5]. - The target price for Datadog is set at US$156.4, up from a previous target of US$154.3, based on a valuation of 16.6x 2025E EV/sales [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached US$2.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 26%, and non-GAAP net income increased by 41% to US$653.8 million [1][6]. - Key operating metrics include billings of US$908 million (up 26% YoY), and a net dollar-based retention rate in the high-110s percentage [5][6]. - The company had over 30,000 customers by the end of 2024, with significant growth in large customers contributing to the annual recurring revenue (ARR) [5]. Future Guidance - Management expects 1Q25 revenue to be between US$737-741 million, representing approximately 21% growth YoY, and non-GAAP net income per share to be between US$0.41-0.43 [5]. - For FY25, revenue is projected to be between US$3.175 billion and US$3.195 billion, indicating an 18-19% growth YoY [5][6]. - Operating expenses are expected to grow in the high-20s percentage YoY, which may impact near-term margins but is aimed at supporting long-term growth [1][5]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc (9.2%) and Blackrock Inc. (6.8%) [3]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Datadog is approximately US$48.735 billion, with a 52-week high of US$168.65 and a low of US$104.97 [2][3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -2.3% and a 6-month performance of 19.0% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, implying a 14.9% upside from the current price of HK$46.55 [1][3][15]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to experience significant earnings growth of 130-145% YoY for FY24, driven by a recovery in the global smartphone market, specification upgrades across various segments, and improved operational efficiency [1][8]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends in AI and foldable phones, as well as new product launches such as AI smart glasses and auto acoustics orders [1][8]. - The report anticipates continued earnings growth of 28% and 21% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, supported by a favorable product mix and margin improvements [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in FY23 to RMB 27,613 million in FY24, representing a 35.2% YoY increase [2][21]. - Net profit is projected to rise from RMB 740.4 million in FY23 to RMB 1,776.3 million in FY24, reflecting a 139.9% YoY growth [2][21]. - The report revises FY24-26E EPS forecasts upward by 1-4% due to anticipated specification upgrades and margin improvements [1][9][15]. Revenue Breakdown - For FY24, revenue from acoustics is expected to be RMB 8,680 million, while PSS (Power Supply Solutions) is projected at RMB 3,125 million [13]. - The revenue mix indicates that acoustics will account for approximately 31% of total revenue in FY25, with PSS contributing around 11% [13]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$53.48 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting different growth profiles across business segments [15][16]. - The target price implies a P/E ratio of 25.2x for FY25E, aligning with industry peers [15][16].