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中国平安:2Q NBV stabilized against a high base; expect to see Group OPAT turnaround
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-27 06:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ping An, with a target price (TP) unchanged at HK$52.0, implying a 0.6x FY24E P/EV [1]. Core Insights - Ping An reported resilient 1H24 results with a year-on-year (YoY) increase in new business value (NBV) of 11% to RMB 22.3 billion, surpassing forecasts by 3.6% and market consensus by 9.5% [1]. - The report anticipates a turnaround in Group operating profit after tax (OPAT) in FY24, driven by improved operating efficiency and a low base effect from the previous year [1]. - The NBV margin improved to 24.2%, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase YoY, indicating a focus on margin expansion rather than volume growth [1]. Summary by Sections New Business Value (NBV) - Ping An's NBV for 1H24 reached RMB 22.3 billion, an 11% increase YoY, with 2Q24 stabilizing at RMB 9.43 billion [1][3]. - The agency and bancassurance channels contributed significantly, with NBV growth of 10.8% and 17.3% YoY, respectively [1][3]. - The NBV margin increased to 24.2%, up 6.5 percentage points YoY, indicating improved profitability [1][3]. Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) - Group OPAT declined by 0.6% YoY in 1H24, with core business lines showing a 1.7% YoY increase to RMB 79.6 billion [1]. - The report expects full-year Group OPAT to grow by 3.9% YoY, supported by stabilized life and health (L&H) OPAT and enhanced property and casualty (P&C) underwriting profit [1]. Property and Casualty (P&C) Performance - The P&C combined ratio (CoR) was 97.8% in 1H24, a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points YoY, with a notable scale-back in high-loss guarantee business [1][10]. - P&C underwriting profits increased by 15.3% YoY to RMB 3.5 billion, driven by higher insurance revenue [1][10]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.42x FY24E P/EV and 0.61x FY24 P/BV, with a dividend yield of 7.6% and an average ROE of 12.3% over three years [1][19]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the Group's OPAT turnaround, particularly in the asset management and technology segments [1][19].
中国铁塔:1H24业绩稳健,维持“持有”评级
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-27 06:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower (788 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 0.95, reflecting a potential downside of 3.2% from the current price of HKD 0.98 [1][3]. Core Insights - The three major telecom operators in China have reduced capital expenditures by 5.4% in 2024, shifting their investment focus from 5G deployment to high-growth areas like cloud computing and computing power [1]. - Traditional communication business revenue growth is slowing, with China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom reporting growth rates of 2.5%, 2.1%, and 4.3% respectively in the first half of 2024 [1]. - Cost control measures have led to a decrease in operating costs as a percentage of revenue for the telecom operators, which is expected to impact China Tower's traditional communication business [1]. - China Tower's traditional tower revenue is projected to grow at a modest rate of around 1% year-on-year for 2024 and 2025, while its indoor distribution and two wings businesses (Smart Connection and Energy) are expected to achieve double-digit growth [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is estimated at RMB 97,865 million, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, and projected to reach RMB 101,661 million in FY25 with a growth of 3.9% [2][7]. - Net profit for FY24 is forecasted to be RMB 10,543 million, reflecting an 8.1% increase, and is expected to grow to RMB 12,302 million in FY25, representing a 16.7% increase [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 6.03 for FY24 and RMB 7.04 for FY25, with respective growth rates of 8.1% and 16.7% [2][7]. Business Segments - Tower business accounted for 79% of China Tower's total revenue in the first half of 2024, maintaining stability with quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 1.7% and 0.3% in the first two quarters [1]. - The Smart Connection business saw a revenue increase of 17.6% year-on-year, while the Energy business grew by 2.4% in the same period, with the tower's Smart Connection revenue growing by 20.9% to RMB 2.5 billion [1].
九毛九:Transforming despite tough macro backdrop
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-27 03:28
27 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) Transforming despite tough macro backdrop HOLD (Maintain) The 1H24 results were inline but the underlying was slightly positive (e.g. resilient GP margin, as well as the restaurant-level OP margin). We agree that both Tai Er and Song are making loads of efforts to transform, but under such a tough industry and macro environment, we would not be able to turn positive, unless we can really see a compelling impr ...
拼多多:2Q earnings beat; investment opportunities arise with overreaction on softened outlook
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-27 02:23
27 Aug 2024 PDD Holdings (PDD US) 27 Aug 2024 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-------|-----------------|-------|-------|-------------------|-------|-------------|----------------|---------| | RMB bn | 2024E | Current 2025E | 2026E | 2024E | Consensus 2025E | 2026E | 2024E | Diff (%) 2025E | 2026E | | Revenue 413.0 544.5 678.3 | | | | 419.9 | 551.9 | | 678.9 -1 ...
绿城服务:Solid 1H24 against industry headwinds
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-27 02:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Greentown Service with a target price (TP) revised up by 3% to HK$ 6.13, reflecting a better outlook than peers, representing a 25x 2024E P/E [2][4]. Core Views - Greentown Service's revenue and core operating profit increased by 11% and 26% YoY in 1H24, respectively, driven by stable parent company support, robust third-party expansion, and a diversified value-added services (VAS) business [2][3]. - The company anticipates core operating profit growth exceeding 20% and cash growth over 15% for 2024E, indicating strong operational performance despite industry challenges [2][3]. - The net increase in managed gross floor area (GFA) from Greentown Real Estate surged 227% YoY, contrasting with a -42% decline from third parties, enhancing the company's competitive position [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 1H24, Greentown Service achieved a revenue of RMB 9,068 million, a 10.6% increase YoY, and a core operating profit of RMB 893 million, reflecting a 25.8% growth YoY [7][9]. - The gross profit margin improved to 19.2%, up 0.6 percentage points YoY, while the core operating margin expanded to 9.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points YoY [7][9]. - The company expects a cash balance of RMB 4.3 billion by the end of 2024, anticipating a 15% YoY increase in cash on hand [2][3]. Growth Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 17,393 million in FY23A to RMB 19,364 million in FY24E, representing an 11.3% growth rate [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 605.4 million in FY23A to RMB 724.6 million in FY24E, indicating a 19.7% growth [3][11]. - The company has lifted its full-year core operating profit growth guidance from over 15% to over 20% for FY24E [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a P/E ratio of 13.3x for FY24E, which is competitive compared to peers in the property management sector [3][15]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 4.5% in FY23A to 5.3% in FY24E, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3][15].
爱奇艺:Short-term headwind continues
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-26 13:48
26 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update iQIYI (IQ US) Short-term headwind continues iQiyi announced 2Q24 results: total revenue decreased by 5% YoY to RMB7.4bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-GAAP operating income was down by 36% YoY to RMB501mn (in line with our/consensus estimate), due to the intense competition in the long-form video sector. For 3Q24E, we expect membership and ads revenue growth will remain under pressure, and it will take time for the im ...
翰森制药:领先的创新生物制药公司
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-26 03:23
Investment Rating - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for Hansoh Pharmaceutical with a target price of HKD 22.06, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price of HKD 17.24 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharmaceutical has successfully transitioned from a traditional generic drug manufacturer to an innovative biopharmaceutical company, with innovative drug sales reaching RMB 6.87 billion in FY2023, a 37.1% year-on-year increase, accounting for 68% of total revenue [1][8][14]. - The company is expected to continue strong revenue growth driven by its innovative drug portfolio, particularly key assets like Aumolertinib (Ameile), Tenofovir Amibufenamide (Hengmu), and Pegmolesatide (Saintrolai) [1][8][14]. - Hansoh's R&D spending has increased significantly, reaching RMB 21 billion in FY2023, representing 21% of total revenue, with ongoing development of over 50 clinical trials across more than 30 innovative drug products [1][11][62]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drug Growth - Hansoh's innovative drug sales are projected to grow by 37% in FY2024, reaching RMB 9.5 billion, which will constitute 79% of total revenue [2][12][129]. - Aumolertinib is expected to maintain strong sales momentum, particularly after being included in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) for first-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [1][17][36]. Diverse Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with significant potential in areas such as antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), GLP-1 receptor agonists, and TYK2 inhibitors, with ongoing clinical trials for multiple indications [1][11][62]. - ADC assets like HS-20093 and HS-20089 have gained global recognition through licensing agreements with GSK, enhancing their development prospects [1][12][120]. Global Collaboration - Hansoh is actively seeking global collaboration opportunities to strengthen its product pipeline, having established various exclusive licensing partnerships with both domestic and international entities [2][12][120]. - The company aims to become a leading platform for biotechnology collaborations in China, leveraging its R&D and commercialization capabilities [2][12][120]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY2024 is expected to grow by 19% to RMB 12 billion, with oncology-related sales projected to increase by 25% to RMB 7.7 billion [2][12][129]. - The report anticipates organic revenue growth rates of 12% and 14% for FY2024 and FY2025, respectively, with net profit expected to reach RMB 4.1 billion in FY2024 [2][12][129].
友邦保险:1H24 VNB 以利润率回升击败 ; 预计 24 财年股东现金回报总额超过 70 亿美元
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-26 03:23
26 Aug 2024 620,675.6 1,647.8 73.80/46.00 11399.0 股权结构 10.0% 9.0% 绝对 相对 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 来源 : FactSet 友邦保险集团有限公司(1299 香港) 现金回报总额超过 70 亿美元 泛亚保险公司公布了2024年1月至6月的财务结果,其中纯可比新业务价值(VNB )增长了25%(以常设汇率计算),达到2455百万美元,超出了我们的预测和彭 博社共识的1.4%/1.4%,主要由VNB边际环比反弹4.5个百分点(以常设汇率计算 )所驱动。 CMBI est. 在2Q24期间,相较于2Q24的2.1百分点(按持续年增长率 计算)的增加,我们看到了香港和中国大陆地区的持续利润率恢复,分别增加了8. 8百分点/6.4百分点(按持续年增长率计算),达到65.7%/56.6%在上半财年(截 至2Q24:64.3%/54.6%)。这导致了稳定的可变净保费收入(VNB)增长,分别 增长26%/36%(按持续年增长率计算),占总VNB的67%。集团经营利润(OPA T)和每股经营利润(OPAT per share)在上半财年增长了7%/ ...
石药集团:传统产品面临定价压力
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-23 03:23
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a revised target price of HKD 6.21 (down from HKD 8.51) [2][3] Core Views - CSPC Pharmaceutical reported moderate growth in 1H24, with total revenue increasing by 1.3% YoY to RMB 16.28 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 1.8% YoY to RMB 3.02 billion [1] - The company faces pricing pressure on key products like Jinyouli and Duomeisu due to the "3+N" provincial volume-based procurement policy, leading to significant price reductions [1] - New product sales targets for FY24 have been revised downward from RMB 3 billion to RMB 2 billion due to delays in hospital listings caused by regulatory challenges [2] - The company expects four assets to enter the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) by the end of 2024, which could offset the decline in sales of oncology products [2] Financial Performance - In 2Q24, CSPC's revenue declined by 8.1% YoY and 20.8% QoQ to RMB 5.99 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 42.2% YoY and 35.7% QoQ to RMB 2.19 billion [1] - Gross margin improved to 71.6% in 1H24, up from 69.9% in 1H23, driven by a higher proportion of revenue from finished drugs [1] - R&D expenses in 2Q24 reached RMB 1.37 billion, up 17.4% QoQ [1] - Sales of oncology, cardiovascular, and respiratory products declined by 30.6%, 27.0%, and 23.1% YoY, respectively, in 2Q24 [1] Product Performance - Jinyouli's price was reduced by 58.4% to RMB 666 per 3mg, while Duomeisu (10mg) and Duomeisu (20mg) saw price reductions of 10.0% and 21.8%, respectively [1] - NBP (Neurology Business Platform) performed well in 1H24, with sales of neurological products increasing by 4.2% YoY to RMB 2.53 billion, driven by strong growth in retail pharmacy channels [1] Future Outlook - CSPC expects new product sales to grow in 2H24 and 2025, with products like Mingfule (rhTNK-tPA), Duoni (Enoxaparin Liposome), and Anfulike (Amoxicillin B) contributing to growth [2] - The company anticipates that Mingfule will gain additional sales potential with the inclusion of acute ischemic stroke in the NRDL negotiations by the end of 2024 [2] - Revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are forecasted to grow by 1.3% and 0.5% in FY24, and by 1.3% and -1.5% in FY25, respectively [2] Valuation - The DCF-based valuation has been revised downward to HKD 6.21, with a WACC of 11.78% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0% [2] - Sensitivity analysis shows a target price range of HKD 5.59 to HKD 7.13 based on varying WACC and terminal growth rate assumptions [6]
药明生物:在充满挑战的环境中保持强劲的性能
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-23 03:23
23 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 无锡生物制品 ( 2269 香港 ) 在充满挑战的环境中保持强劲的性能 无锡生物报告了2024年上半财年的收入为85.7亿人民币,同比增长1.0%,调整后的归属于母公 司的净利润为225亿人民币,同比下降20.7%。2024年上半财年的收入和调整后的归属于母公 司的净利润分别占我们全年预测的47.9%和44.5%,略高于历史水平。如果排除COVID相关的 收入,2024年上半财年的总收入将同比增长7.7%,而后期项目和合同制造组织(CMO)项目 的收入则同比增长11.7%。公司在2024年上半财年新增了61个集成项目,这一数字仅在其历史 上超越了2022年上半财年的记录。截至2024年年末,总订单保持稳定在2011亿美元,三年内 订单增长4%。尽管存在地缘政治不确定性以及全球生物科技资金复苏的波动性,管理层已确认 其2024年的全年指导方针,预计收入和调整后的归属于母公司的净利润都将实现高个位数的增 长。. 来自海外客户的强劲需求。在2024年上半年, WuXi Bio 增加了61个集成项目,包括52个 预临床项目和5个I/II期临床项 ...