\ \\\\\\\\\\ 2024 年 6 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 互联网 1Q24 行业业绩总结及三条投资布局主线 回顾年初至今的板块表现及行业 1Q24 业绩，互联网板块在情绪改善及短线资 中国 互联网 行业 金流入助推下的较快速上涨后有所回调，符合我们此前的预期。从全年维度选 股视角来看，在降息交易尚未趋势性启动、流动性仍偏紧的情况下，我们建议 贺赛一, CFA 围绕三条主线选股：1）公司有能力提高或保持股东回报至有吸引力水平，关 (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk 键支撑来自于公司的基本面质量（业务竞争优势稳固，主营业务仍有稳定增 长、且具备稳定的盈利能力）且有意愿（管理层重视提升股东回报）提升股东 陶冶 回报水平，此主线下建议关注：阿里巴巴、腾讯、网易等；2）新业务潜在体 franktao@cmbi.com.hk 量大、业务探索有望在长期带来可观资本利得；目前新业务的探索方向主要集 陆文韬, CFA 中在出海和AI相关，此主线下建议关注：拼多多、腾讯、阿里巴巴、携程等； luwentao@cmbi.com.hk 3）GARP（g ...

M N 18 Jun 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Promising PoC results of the potential FIC asset  IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2) demonstrated encouraging signals in IO-failed and cold Target Price HK$55.75 tumors, especially in IO-resistant sq-NSCLC. IBI363 is a potential FIC PD-1/IL-2 (Previous TP HK$55.00) bsAb with a differentiated α-biased IL-2 arm, distinct from other IL-2 mAbs that Up/Downside 46.5% eliminate the receptor α. IBI363 has shown broad- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cafe De Coral (341 HK) despite lowering the target price to HKD 11.15 from HKD 14.82, reflecting a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 8.68 [2][6][10]. Core Insights - Cafe De Coral has shown resilience in a weak macroeconomic environment, outperforming the industry with a sales growth of 8% year-on-year in FY24, reaching HKD 8.69 billion, although slightly below the estimated 10% [2][6]. - The company’s net profit surged by 200% year-on-year to HKD 333.2 million, attributed to accelerated same-store sales growth (SSSG), significant gross profit margin expansion, stable labor costs, and limited rent increases [6][14]. - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding the new management team and the company's defensive nature, alongside an attractive dividend yield [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at HKD 9.06 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%, and expected to reach HKD 10.4 billion by FY27E [3][14]. - The operating profit is forecasted to increase from HKD 452.8 million in FY24 to HKD 568.7 million in FY25E, with net profit expected to rise from HKD 333.2 million to HKD 384.6 million in the same period [3][14]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in profit margins due to potential operational leverage challenges and the need for discounts to drive customer traffic [2][6]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the Hong Kong market's recovery has been slower than expected, with the SSS recovery rate projected at 88% for FY24, reflecting resilience in the fast-food segment [2][6]. - In mainland China, sales grew by 15% year-on-year in FY24, driven by an impressive SSSG of 11% and a 12% increase in store count, with expectations for further growth in FY25E [2][6]. Store Expansion Plans - Cafe De Coral plans to maintain its store expansion strategy, with a net opening of 4 stores in Hong Kong and 18 in mainland China in FY24, aligning with previous guidance [6][14]. - The company aims to open approximately 5 to 10 new stores in Hong Kong and 20 in mainland China in FY25E, indicating a commitment to growth despite macroeconomic challenges [6][14].

\ \\\\\\\\\\ 2024 年 6 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 互联网 NBS 数据或预示 2Q 电商 GMV 表现有望好于预期 据国家统计局，5M24网上零售额/实物商品网上零售额达人民币5.8万亿元/4.8 中国 互联网 行业 万亿元，同比增长 12.4%/11.5%，对应两年CAGR为13.1%/11.6%，网上零售 额增速持续超过实物商品网上零售额增长。单 5 月份实物商品网上零售额增速 贺赛一, CFA 12.9%，环比上月的 9.6%进一步加速，较高基数下稳健增长趋势延续且好于市 (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk 场预期，直播电商及即时零售持续渗透、购物体验提升下消费者购买习惯持续 向线上迁移或为主要支撑。电商平台围绕高频及核心会员用户展开补贴和驱动 陶冶 franktao@cmbi.com.hk 用户体验提升的投资有望支撑高效增长，基于较为稳定的利润水平提升股东回 报或有望为估值水平提供支撑，而未来消费复苏或有望支撑更进一步的估值重 陆文韬, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk 估。我们维持拼多多 (PD ...

M N 2024 年 6 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 中国宏桥 (1378 HK) 全球铝供应紧张局面的主要受益者，估值吸引 目标价 17.90港元 恢复覆盖并给予买入评级。在全球铝供应紧张（中国对铝产能的控制和铝土矿 潜在升幅 50.4% 供应不稳）但需求上升（电动汽车轻量化+ 光伏增长 + 中国房地产政策转变后建 当前股价 11.90港元 筑需求转趋稳定）的背景下，我们预测 2024 年电解铝/氧化铝价格将上涨 中国Materials 4.5%/10%，而2025 年将保持高位。我们认为宏桥（按 2023 年电解铝产量计全 冯键嵘, CFA 球市场份额约为 9%）将受益于单位利润大幅扩张，主要由于公司具备拥有海外 (852) 3900 0826 铝土矿参股权、自备电厂和高比例铝水产品的垂直整合模式。我们预计宏桥 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk 2024 年/25 年盈利增长分别为 61%/5%（高于彭博预期 6%/4%）。我们预计电 公司数据 解铝价格每上涨 1%，宏桥的盈利将增加 4%。尽管自今年年初以来股价大幅上 市值(百万港元） 112,758.9 涨，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Cafe De Coral (CDC) despite trimming earnings forecasts due to macroeconomic challenges [2][6]. Core Insights - CDC has outperformed the industry in a weak macro environment, with a notable recovery in fast food sales and a resilient same-store sales (SSS) recovery rate of 88% in FY24 [2][6]. - The company is expected to continue reclaiming market share through innovative product launches and improved marketing strategies [2]. - The report anticipates a SSS recovery rate of 88% in 1H25E and 90% in 2H25E, with potential acceleration in the second half of 2025 due to government initiatives [2][6]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue increased by 8% YoY to HK$ 8.7 billion, while net profit surged by 200% YoY to HK$ 331 million [6][12]. - The report projects revenue growth to HK$ 9.062 billion in FY25E, with a net profit of HK$ 381 million [7][12]. - The company declared a final dividend of HK$ 0.42, resulting in a yield of approximately 7% [6]. Market Segments - In the Hong Kong market, fast food has shown resilience with a recovery rate of 102% during Jan-Feb 2024, outperforming other segments [2]. - The Mainland China market saw a 15% YoY sales increase in FY24, driven by a strong SSSG of 11% and store growth of 12% [2][6]. Valuation - The target price is revised down to HK$ 11.15 from HK$ 14.82, reflecting a 28.4% upside from the current price of HK$ 8.68 [4][6]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 13x FY25E, with an expected yield of 8% [6][10].

2024 年 6 月 17 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥 （ 1378 香港 ） 以具有吸引力的估值进行紧张的铝供应交易的主要受 益者 目标价 17.90 港元 继续购买保险。在全球铝 （ Al ） 供应紧张 （ 中国的产能控制和铝土矿供应中断 ） 但需求 涨 / 跌 50.4% 增长 （ 中国房地产政策掉头后，电动汽车和太阳能发电的增长 + 建筑需求的稳定 ） 的背景 现价 11.90 港元中国材料 下，我们预测铝 / 氧化铝价格 2024E 将上涨 4.5 ％ / 10 ％，并在 2025E 保持高位。我们认为 ，虹桥 （ 2023 年铝产量约 9 ％ 的全球市场份额 ） 将受益于单位利润率的扩张，这要归功于 Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 其与海外铝土矿股权，自备电厂和高比例的熔融铝产品的垂直整合模式。我们预测虹桥在 2024E / 25E 实现 61% / 5% 的盈利增长 （ 比彭博社的共识高出 6% / 4% ） 。我们估计铝价 格每上涨 1% 将使虹桥的收益增加 4% 。尽管自今年年初以来出现了反弹，但虹桥的估值仍处 库存数据 于 ...

M N 17 Jun 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) A key beneficiary of tight aluminum supply trading at attractive valuation Target Price HK$17.90 Resume coverage with BUY. On the back of tight global aluminum (Al) supply Up/Downside 50.4% (capacity control in China & disruption of bauxite supply) but rising demand Current Price HK$11.90 (growth of EV & solar power + stabilisation of construction demand following China’s U-turn on property policy), ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 26.10, indicating a potential upside of 56.1% from the current price of HKD 16.72 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilient growth during the Dragon Boat Festival period, with hotel and transportation growth rates exceeding the market average. The management remains optimistic about the financial guidance for the entire year, expecting a positive performance in Q2 2024 and accelerated revenue growth in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. - The report suggests that the market has overreacted to concerns about profit margin dilution due to international business investments, which are expected to diminish in impact by the second half of 2024. The company's hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) remains stable, contrasting with broader market pressures [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its international business, aiming to increase its revenue contribution from 3%-4% to 10%-15% over the next 2-3 years, particularly in the Southeast Asian market [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 11,896 million in FY23A to RMB 17,607 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.0% [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,199.1 million in FY23A to RMB 2,606.8 million in FY24E, reflecting an 18.5% growth [3][11]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.98 in FY23A to RMB 1.16 in FY24E, indicating a significant recovery from previous declines [3][11]. Market Position and Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in market share, with domestic travel during the Dragon Boat Festival increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, and total spending rising by 8.1% [2][3]. - The hotel ADR is expected to remain stable, with a projected year-on-year hold in the first half of 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of budget hotels in the company's portfolio [2][3]. - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance decline of 8.2% over the past six months, while the overall market has seen a larger drop of 18.8% [5].

2024 年 6 月 17 日 每日投资策略 宏观 / 公司点评 中国 5 月金融数据点评 由于实际利率居高和私人部门信心疲软，信贷增长仍然较低。央行取消按揭贷款 利率全国下限后，新增抵押贷款利率显著下行，仍有进一步下降空间。央行可能 进一步下调 LPR 10-20 个基点，以减轻私人部门偿债负担。央行还可能降低存款 利率以保护银行净息差。同时，央行将继续引导银行扩大信贷投放，以支持经济 增长和缓解通缩压力。我们预计今年下半年到明年上半年信贷增速可能温和反弹。 （链接） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|--------|----------------| | 同程旅行（ 780 HK ，买入，目标价： 26.1 港元） - 端午韧性增长持续，憧憬 \n2H24E 利润率回升 | 港股分类指数上日表现 | 收市价 | 升 / 跌（ 单日 | | | ...