Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Important news: The total scale of domestic public funds in China has exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time; the returns of the first batch of new floating - rate funds are promising; the number of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs has exceeded 100 [2]. - Market review: Last week (from September 22, 2025, to September 26, 2025), the major broad - based indices in the A - share market showed an upward trend, while most overseas indices showed a downward trend [2]. - Fund market review: Half of the active equity funds achieved positive returns last week, with the median interval return of active equity funds at 0.38%. The cycle and manufacturing theme funds performed outstandingly [2]. - ETF fund statistics: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance last week were technology, commodity futures, and manufacturing theme ETFs. There were 435 ETFs with net capital inflows and 593 with net outflows [2]. - Fund market dynamics: 41 public funds had new fund managers last week; 61 public funds were newly established, with a total issuance share of 366.07 billion; 16 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time; as of September 28, 2025, there were 68 public funds waiting to be issued [2]. - Equity fund issuance tracking: The issuance scale of equity funds last week reached 240.73 billion yuan, an increase of 17.15 billion yuan from the previous week. It is expected to bring incremental funds to industries such as electronics, power equipment and new energy, and computers [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - The total scale of domestic public funds in China has exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time, with open - end funds being the main driving force for growth [7]. - The returns of the first batch of new floating - rate funds are promising, with an average return close to 13% [8]. - The largest money market fund, Yu'E Bao, has announced a fee reduction, which may drive other large - and medium - sized money market funds to follow suit [9]. 1.2 Product Hotspots - Xingzheng Global Fund has submitted an application for its first ETF, aiming to meet investors' diversified allocation needs [10]. - The first batch of index fund Y - shares has achieved excellent results, with 84 out of 85 funds achieving positive returns [11]. - The number of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs has exceeded 100, forming a multi - level index product system [11]. - The China Securities Index Company has officially released the CSI Smart - Selected Hangzhou Innovation 50 Index [12]. 1.3 Overseas/Overseas Markets - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its overweight view on China [13]. - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) has launched a new offshore RMB income bond fund [14]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the major broad - based indices in the A - share market showed an upward trend, while most overseas indices showed a downward trend. The electronics and non - ferrous metals industries had the highest increases [14][16]. 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the short - term, manufacturing and technology theme funds performed well; in the medium - and long - term, technology and manufacturing theme funds also had outstanding performance [20]. 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - The top five active equity funds last week were mainly technology - themed funds, with Southern Information Innovation A ranking first [24]. 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - The top three ETF categories in terms of performance last week were technology, commodity futures, and manufacturing theme ETFs [26]. 4.2 ETF Fund Capital Flow Statistics - Last week, the ETF categories with the largest net capital inflows were technology, bonds, and financial real estate, while the categories with the largest net outflows were strategy style, cycle, and others [29]. 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - As of September 26, 2025, the top three ETFs in terms of premium rate were Bosera CSI All - Share Free Cash Flow ETF, Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF, and Puyin AXA CSI A500 ETF [34]. 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - Last week, 41 public funds had new fund managers, involving 32 fund managers from 23 fund management companies; 52 public funds had fund manager departures, involving 27 fund managers from 20 fund management companies [36][39]. 5.2 Newly Established Funds Last Week - 61 public funds were newly established last week, with a total issuance share of 366.07 billion. The largest number and the largest issuance share were from passive index funds [42]. 5.3 First - Time Issued Funds Last Week - 16 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time last week, with the largest number being passive index funds [2]. 5.4 Funds Waiting to be Issued - As of September 28, 2025, there were 68 public funds waiting to be issued [2]. 5.5 Equity Fund Issuance Tracking - The issuance scale of equity funds last week reached 240.73 billion yuan, an increase of 17.15 billion yuan from the previous week. It is expected to bring incremental funds to certain industries [2].

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, particularly cement, following the release of the "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments [4][6]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The building materials sector has shown a decline of 11% over the past 12 months, while the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased by 5% [2]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The stabilization plan aims to enhance profitability and innovation in the building materials industry, with a target for green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion by 2026 [6]. - Key measures include restricting supply by prohibiting new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity, promoting the unification of actual and registered production capacities, and fostering green building materials through various initiatives [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that while there is a temporary pressure on real estate and infrastructure demand, recent policies have led to a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for a slow price recovery in the cement market [6]. - Cement production increased by 1.7% month-on-month in August, supported by significant government bond issuances and major project launches, which may lead to a turning point in infrastructure work in Q4 [6]. Investment Recommendations - The cement sector is recommended for investment due to its high dividend yield and the anticipated recovery in demand and prices. The report suggests focusing on companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, while also considering companies in the photovoltaic supply chain such as Qibin Group [6]. - The consumer building materials sector is expected to stabilize, with companies like Sankeshu, Rabbit Baby, Dongfang Yuhong, and Keshun Co. being highlighted for potential growth [6].

Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rise of 21.9 percentage points compared to July[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in August was approximately 5.82%, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, which is a major support for the substantial profit increase[6] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) in August decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to July, indicating marginal improvement in price pressure[6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The low base effect is a significant reason for the substantial growth in industrial profits in August, with the PPI tail effect improving from -1.4% to -0.7%[4] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises is expected to further decline in September, indicating a seasonal downturn despite the low base effect providing short-term support[4] - The "anti-involution" policy and the upcoming National Day holiday have positively impacted certain industries, such as coal mining and non-ferrous metallurgy, suggesting initial effectiveness of the policy[4] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not be as effective as anticipated, and international geopolitical changes could exceed expectations[14] - There may be measurement errors in calculating the profit margins of industrial enterprises, which could affect the accuracy of the data[14] - If terminal demand does not improve significantly, midstream processing and manufacturing enterprises may face profit pressures, while industries benefiting from external demand and "anti-involution" may see increased concentration and cost transmission capabilities[4]

Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the 10-year Treasury bond futures may be approaching, and investors should actively respond to the adjustment. T2512 may be in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th and is currently in a short-term rebound. The 5th wave may see another decline, but considering it might be at the end of the decline since May, it could be a good opportunity to participate when the futures reach last Thursday's low or the spot bond yield reaches Thursday's high [2]. - Treasury bond futures fell across the board this week. Trading activity declined overall, and the CTD net basis and IRR of the 2512 contracts showed differentiation. The current IRR is still relatively low, and the value of the cash-and-carry strategy is not high, so investors should wait for a better opportunity [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Previous Trend Review - T2512 continued to decline at the beginning of the week and rebounded significantly on Thursday. It is currently in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th. The Treasury bond futures fell first and then rebounded this week, with a negative weekly line, but the decline slowed down significantly. T and TL rebounded significantly on Thursday afternoon and may be in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th [8]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - T2512 may still have a 5th wave of decline after the 4th wave of rebound ends. Investors can participate at low levels and make long-term layouts. The subsequent trend may form a slanting triangle [9]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures fell across the board this week. As of September 26th, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures were 102.342, 105.540, 107.680, and 114.19 yuan respectively, down 0.022, 0.135, 0.155, and 0.61 yuan from the previous week [14]. - Trading activity declined overall. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of various maturities decreased to varying degrees compared with last week. The trading volume/holding volume ratio decreased for all maturities [14]. - As of September 26th, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, except for the 10-year contract, which decreased [14]. - The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of various maturities showed differentiation. The net basis of 2-year and 10-year contracts increased, while that of 5-year and 30-year contracts decreased. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures was +0.03, +0.04, +0.07, and +0.07 yuan respectively [18]. - From the perspective of IRR, the IRR of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures was 1.41%, 1.34%, 1.22%, and 1.29% respectively. The IRR of 2-year and 10-year contracts declined, while that of 5-year and 30-year contracts increased. Overall, the value of the cash-and-carry strategy is still not high, and investors should wait for a better opportunity [18]. - The spread between the 2512-2603 contracts showed differentiation. The spreads of 2-year and 30-year contracts increased, while those of 5-year and 10-year contracts showed no significant change [18].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the market with a projected increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by over 10% to above 3800 points [6][9] - The report identifies three main driving forces for the market: old economy cycles, new technology, and new consumer trends, suggesting a robust market environment in the fourth quarter [6][10] Group 1: Old Economy and Cyclical Trading - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has reached a bottom, indicating a favorable environment for trading in non-ferrous metals and a potential soft landing for the economy [3][10] - It highlights the positive impact of domestic stabilization and policy expectations on sectors such as coal, steel, and renewable energy [3][10] - The report suggests that large financial institutions, including internet finance, brokerage firms, and insurance companies, are likely to benefit from these trends [3][10] Group 2: New Economy and Technology - The report discusses the benefits of AI and overseas expansion for technology sectors, emphasizing the importance of hardware performance and application sentiment [3][10] - It identifies key areas such as North American computing power, semiconductor equipment, and AI chips as critical for performance release [3][10] - The report also highlights the significance of liquidity in innovative pharmaceuticals related to technology exports [3][10] Group 3: New Economy and Consumer Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and service consumption, identifying sectors such as pet economy, IP toys, and travel as key areas of focus [3][10] - It categorizes consumer spending into emotional resources, emotional resolution, and emotional release, indicating a diverse range of opportunities in the consumer market [3][10] Group 4: National Holiday Market Dynamics - The report analyzes the market behavior around the National Day holiday, indicating a pattern of volume adjustments and potential for gains post-holiday [4][11] - It notes a high success rate for holding stocks before and after the holiday, with a 67% success rate for the two days before and an 80% success rate for the five days after [4][11] - The report suggests that the market may experience a shift in style, with small-cap stocks gaining momentum post-holiday [4][11] Group 5: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - The report indicates that leverage funds typically flow out before the holiday and return afterward, suggesting a cyclical pattern in fund movements [4][11] - It highlights that the risk of missing out on gains by exiting the market may outweigh the risks of remaining invested [4][11] - The report concludes that the overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations for continued inflows into equity markets [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (initial coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a local automotive parts manufacturer in Chongqing, primarily engaged in power transmission and touch display businesses. The power transmission segment has become the main contributor to the company's performance, accounting for 54% of revenue in the first half of 2025. After experiencing losses in 2023 due to goodwill impairment, the company is expected to return to profitability in 2024 and 2025, with net profits of 124 million and 109 million yuan respectively [8][12]. - The company's new energy business is rapidly expanding, with significant increases in sales and revenue share. The new energy products include integrated assemblies, new energy gear shafts, motor shafts, and differential gears. The sales proportion of new energy products in the power transmission segment is projected to rise from 5% in 2022 to 18% in 2024, with revenue share increasing from 5% to 15% [8][46]. - The Chongqing government is actively supporting the robotics industry, and the company has invested in Qianzhibo to enter this sector. The company has successfully launched an integrated joint module in the first half of 2025, which is expected to become a new growth point for the company [8][49][52]. - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 4.23 billion, 5.01 billion, and 5.69 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 240 million, 300 million, and 390 million yuan. The expected PE ratios for these years are 42.9, 34.2, and 26.4 respectively [8][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as Landa Industrial in 1996, has evolved through various business expansions and rebranding to become Landa Technology. It has shifted focus from motorcycle parts to power transmission and touch display businesses, with a significant investment in the automotive sector [8][12]. Business Segments - The main business segments include power transmission and touch display. The power transmission segment has seen a continuous increase in revenue share, while the touch display segment has experienced a decline in its revenue contribution [20][26]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections indicate a recovery and growth trajectory, with total revenues expected to increase significantly from 2025 to 2027. The company anticipates a steady rise in gross margins due to the growing share of new energy products and improvements in operational efficiency [54][56]. Market Position and Competitiveness - The company is positioned in a competitive market with a focus on both domestic and international clients. It has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and is expanding its footprint in the new energy sector [45][46]. Valuation - The relative valuation compared to peer companies indicates that while the company has lower revenue and profit margins, its growth potential in new energy and robotics could provide significant upside [58][59].

政府关门迫在眉睫 ——全球经济观察第 14 期 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.09.27 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《美国零售仍有韧性——全球经济观察第 13 期》 2025-09-20 2.《初请失业金人数创新高——全球经济观 察第 12 期》 2025-09-13 3.《美国就业全面降温——全球经济观察第 11 期》 2025-09-06 4.《特朗普降息再施压——全球经济观察第 10 期》 2025-08-30 5.《美国房地产市场仍弱——全球经济观察 第 9 期》 2025-08-23 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 全球资产价格：金价继续上行。股市方面，日欧市场上涨，而美股市场下 跌。美股三大指数来看，本周标普 500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下 跌 0.9%、0.8 和 0.7%。债市方面，全球国债收益率普遍上行，10 年期美债 收益率上行 6bp。商品方面，原油价格上涨，WTI 原油和布伦特原油本周分 别上涨 2.7%和 2.5%，伦敦金价上 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in excess returns for index-enhanced strategies, indicating a positive shift in market performance [1] - The analysis is based on a deep learning framework that constructs alpha and risk models to create low-frequency index-enhanced strategies [4] Market Index Performance - As of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.07%, with the STAR 50 showing strong performance [6][9] - The performance of index-enhanced funds for the week ending September 26, 2025, showed the CSI 300 index-enhanced fund had an excess return ranging from -1.59% to 0.86%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds had similar ranges [6][14] Index Enhanced Fund Performance - Year-to-date, the CSI 300 index has increased by 15.6%, while the CSI 300 index-enhanced portfolio has risen by 22.8%, resulting in an excess return of 7.2% [6][22] - The CSI 500 index has seen a year-to-date increase of 26.5%, with its enhanced portfolio rising by 29.8%, yielding an excess return of 3.3% [6][27] - The CSI 1000 index has increased by 24.2% year-to-date, while its enhanced portfolio has risen by 35.1%, resulting in an excess return of 10.9% [6][33] Tracking Portfolio Performance - The report emphasizes the construction of index-enhanced portfolios for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 using a deep learning framework, which optimizes alpha signals and risk signals [18] - The CSI 300 index-enhanced portfolio has shown a year-to-date return of 22.8%, outperforming the index itself [22][23] - The CSI 500 index-enhanced portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 29.8%, while the CSI 1000 index-enhanced portfolio has returned 35.1% [27][33]

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