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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Coal prices bottomed out and rebounded, and steel industry profits are slowly recovering. Whether it is driven by "anti - involution" remains to be explored [2][89]. - For coal, supply - side factors such as reduced production in major coal - producing areas and shrinking imported coal volumes, along with increased demand from power plants and high - profit steel mills, are expected to lead to a slight year - on - year decrease in coal production this year and a volatile coal price [4][89]. - The steel industry's profit is slowly recovering. Although real estate is a major drag, infrastructure, manufacturing, and exports support demand. However, long - term supply - demand pressure remains significant [4][89]. - In the secondary market, coal bonds have active trading, with the weekly number of traded bonds hitting a new high this year, and medium - to - long - term trading has become more active since the second quarter. Steel bonds have a significantly increased trading proportion in ultra - short - term bonds [4][90]. - In terms of low - valuation trading, there are many low - valuation steel bonds within 1Y, and after the "anti - involution" policy in July, the number of low - valuation medium - to - long - term coal bonds has increased significantly [4][90]. - For investment strategies, for coal enterprises, those with high return requirements can focus on Jizhong Energy, Pingmei Group, and Kailuan Group within 2Y, and high - grade coal bonds can appropriately extend the duration. For steel enterprises, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and Shougang Group can appropriately extend the duration, and within 1.5Y, Hebei Iron & Steel Group and Shandong Iron & Steel Group can be considered [4][91][92]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Anti - Involution Impact 1.1 Coal: Coal Price Bottomed Out and Rebounded - Since 2024, coal prices have been in a downward trend. In 2025, coal prices bottomed out and rebounded in July. The main reasons include reduced coal supply due to extreme rainfall in major coal - producing areas, shrinking imported coal volumes, increased coal demand from power plants due to high temperatures, and high - profit steel mills driving up coking coal demand [4][8][19]. - It is expected that the annual coal production this year may be slightly lower than that in 2024, and coal prices will remain volatile [28][31][89]. 1.2 Steel: Profit Slowly Recovering - Steel prices first declined and then rebounded in 2025. The industry's profit has been repaired to a certain extent, with the total profit from January to July reaching 643.6 billion yuan, a new high in the past three years [32][33]. - On the demand side, real estate is a major drag, but infrastructure, manufacturing, and exports support steel demand. On the supply side, policies are guiding the control of production capacity, and the growth rate of crude steel production has been decreasing [38][39][42]. - Although "anti - involution" may help with profit repair, long - term supply - demand pressure remains [47]. 2. Secondary Market Observation of Coal and Steel Bonds 2.1 Overview of Outstanding Bonds - As of September 23, the outstanding scale of coal bonds is 727.8 billion yuan, and that of steel bonds is 440.6 billion yuan. Both are mainly concentrated in the 1.75 - 2.25% valuation range and are dominated by medium - and short - term bonds [48]. 2.2 Analysis of Coal Bonds - The valuation of coal bonds first increased and then decreased this year. Short - term bond yields are at a historically low level, while long - term yields have increased recently. The credit spreads of 1 - 3Y medium - and high - grade coal bonds have narrowed to a historically low level [56][58]. - For coal enterprises, those with high return requirements can focus on Jizhong Energy, Pingmei Group, and Kailuan Group within 2Y, and high - grade coal bonds can appropriately extend the duration around large and high - quality coal enterprises [61]. 2.3 Analysis of Steel Bonds - The yields of steel bonds with different implicit ratings and maturities have declined to a low level since 2024. After the "anti - involution" policy in July, short - term low - grade steel bonds performed better [64]. - The credit spreads of 1 - 3Y medium - and high - grade steel bonds have continued to decline and are close to a historically low level. The current value of further credit - rating downgrading is not high, and high - grade bonds can appropriately extend the duration to about 3Y [68][70]. - For steel enterprises, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and Shougang Group can appropriately extend the duration, within 1.5Y, Hebei Iron & Steel Group and Shandong Iron & Steel Group can be considered, and Liuzhou Iron & Steel Group can also be of interest to investors with high return requirements [73]. 2.4 Recent Characteristics of Secondary Market Transactions - Coal bonds have active trading, with the weekly number of traded bonds hitting a new high this year. Medium - to - long - term trading has become more active since the second quarter. Steel bonds have a significantly increased trading proportion in ultra - short - term bonds [77][79]. - Since the first quarter of this year, the weekly number of low - valuation steel bond transactions has increased significantly. After the "anti - involution" policy in July, the number of low - valuation coal bond transactions has also increased, especially for medium - to - long - term coal bonds [83][86]. 3. Summary - Coal production decreased year - on - year in July, and it is expected that the annual coal production will slightly decrease year - on - year, with coal prices remaining volatile. The steel industry's profit is slowly recovering, but long - term supply - demand pressure remains [4][89]. - In the secondary market, coal bonds have active trading, and medium - to - long - term trading has become more active. Steel bonds have a significantly increased trading proportion in ultra - short - term bonds. The number of low - valuation medium - to - long - term coal bond transactions has increased recently [4][90]. - For investment strategies, coal enterprises with high return requirements can focus on certain enterprises within 2Y, and high - grade coal bonds can appropriately extend the duration. Steel enterprises should avoid those with deteriorating profitability and high short - term liquidity pressure, and different steel enterprises can be considered according to different duration and return requirements [4][91][92].

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing profitability in pig farming while the pet food sector continues to grow [1][5] - The investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the sector [1] Pig Farming - Supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price in July-August 2025 at 14.63 CNY/kg, down from 14.96 CNY/kg in Q2 2025 [5] - The average profitability for self-breeding and purchased piglets in the industry has shifted to losses, with figures of 53.0 CNY/head for self-breeding and -106.7 CNY/head for purchased piglets as of September 19 [5] - The outflow of pigs from listed companies has shown a growth rate of 26.2% in Q2 2025 and 20.0% in July-August 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy guidance for capacity adjustment and weight reduction will likely elevate the price center of pigs in the future [5] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and Tangrenshen [5] Animal Health - Demand for animal health products is on the rise, with significant year-on-year growth in various vaccines, such as a 30% increase for swine fever vaccines in July-August 2025 [5] - Companies like Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological are highlighted for their strong internal growth potential due to new product launches [5] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens has rebounded due to seasonal demand and tighter supply, with an average price of 6.92 CNY/kg as of September 19, 2025 [5] - The report notes a 17.66% year-on-year decrease in the number of breeding chickens updated in the first eight months of 2025, indicating potential long-term benefits for the white feather chicken industry [5] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [5] Pet Food Sector - Domestic sales of pet food are driven by consumption upgrades and domestic substitution, with a reported growth rate of 11% across major e-commerce platforms from January to August 2025 [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new products and the strengthening of brand power among leading companies [5] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [5]

Group 1: Economic Transformation Insights - China's current transformation strategy is more aligned with the U.S. in the 1970s, focusing on "going global" and "common prosperity" akin to the U.S. deindustrialization and Great Society initiatives[1] - The Chinese economy is entering the latter stage of transformation, with cyclical issues becoming less impactful, as evidenced by the decline in old economic drivers like real estate[1] - The transition phase requires patience in policy implementation, as excessive use of counter-cyclical policies may lead to structural issues similar to the U.S. in the 1960s and 70s[1] Group 2: Market and Policy Implications - The easing of cyclical pressures, particularly in real estate, suggests a potential formation of an "L-shaped" economic recovery, supported by counter-cyclical policies[1] - The ongoing structural reforms and technological breakthroughs, although slow, create opportunities for risk appetite and asset revaluation in the capital markets[1] - The A-share bull market since the "924" policy in 2021 reflects the synergy between counter-cyclical policies and technological advancements in sectors like AI and robotics[1] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the possibility that the pace of structural reforms may not meet expectations, and uncertainties surrounding technological breakthroughs and external economic influences[1] - The decline in housing prices, with first-tier city prices dropping by 34.3% from their peak as of August 2025, highlights the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, indicating persistent economic weakness[3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its transition to renewable energy, leading to rapid growth in performance. It is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit increases in the coming years [7][8]. - The company has a strong foothold in the automotive parts sector, particularly in welding and electroplating, which are driving its performance growth [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been a key supplier of automotive parts since the 1990s, initially partnering with major automakers like SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC General Motors. Recently, it has expanded its client base to include electric vehicle manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Tesla, and Li Auto [7][11]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholders having significant industry experience [14]. 2. Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.29 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and a net profit of 200 million yuan, up 27.2% year-on-year [22]. - The welding business accounted for 66% of revenue, while the electroplating business maintained a high gross margin of around 80% [20][22]. 3. Growth Drivers - The company is benefiting from high-demand clients in the electric vehicle sector, which has led to a significant increase in both revenue and profit margins [25][32]. - The company issued 520 million yuan in convertible bonds to enhance its capacity to supply parts to Xiaomi, further solidifying its market position [35]. 4. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.8 billion yuan, 36.6 billion yuan, and 40.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 496 million yuan, 586 million yuan, and 669 million yuan [6][59]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 22%, 19%, and 12% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [59]. 5. Valuation - The report suggests that the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 17.8, 15.0, and 13.2, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [6][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Important news: Ant Fund released data on the profitability of its fund investors; the scale of newly issued funds in a single week reached a new high in nearly three years, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs becoming the absolute main force; multiple bond funds announced adjustments to net value precision [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - The reform of fund fees may affect short - term bond funds, and wealth management companies are considering three alternative paths. The CSRC's proposed regulations on redemption fees may increase the cost of short - term redemptions, affecting the investment value of short - term bond funds. Wealth management companies are considering direct bond trading, bond allocation through dedicated accounts, and investing in bond ETFs and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds [8]. - Ant Fund released data on the profitability of its fund investors. With the rise of the A - share market, the overall returns of active equity funds have recovered, and 90% of fund net values have exceeded last year's high. As of September 19, 215 million fund investors on the Ant Fund platform have achieved cumulative profits [8]. - Tibet Dongcai Fund officially changed its name to Dongcai Fund. The company completed the industrial and commercial change registration on September 15 and will subsequently change the names of its public fund products [9]. - The Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) released the public fund sales ranking for the first half of 2025, and securities firms are on the "fast - track" of index investment. In the first half of 2025, the overall public fund sales and custody scale of various institutions increased, and securities firms performed well in the field of index fund sales. The top ten institutions in the equity fund custody scale remained the same as at the end of 2024, while there were some changes in the non - monetary market fund and stock index fund custody scales [9]. 1.2 Product Highlights - The subscribers of the second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs were announced, mostly institutional investors. The second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs will be listed on September 24, and most of the funds are held by institutional investors, with the proportion of institutional holdings in some funds exceeding 90% [10]. - The scale of newly issued funds in a single week reached a new high in nearly three years, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs becoming the absolute main force. From September 15 to 21, 56 new funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 76.715 billion yuan. Bond funds were particularly prominent, with 21 new bond funds established and a total issuance scale of 48.621 billion yuan, accounting for 63% of the total [12]. - Multiple bond funds announced adjustments to net value precision. Since July, more than 20 bond funds have announced adjustments to net value precision, mainly to avoid the adverse impact of large - scale redemptions on the interests of fund holders [14]. 1.3 Overseas Market - The acceleration of the "going - global" strategy of public funds is expected to bring a second growth curve. Recently, Huatai - Peregrine Asset Management (International) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Huatai - Peregrine Fund in Hong Kong, obtained relevant licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Many public funds have established overseas subsidiaries in recent years, which is expected to enhance the influence of China's capital market and introduce more funds [14]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%, restarting the interest - rate cut process suspended since December last year [15]. 2. Market Review - Last week (from September 15 to 19, 2025), most of the A - share market's major broad - based indices showed a downward trend, while most overseas indices showed an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 1.30%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4501.92, down 0.44%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7170.35, up 0.32%; the CSI 800 Index closed at 4951.69, down 0.24%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7438.19, up 0.21%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3091.00, up 2.34%. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.09%, the China Internet 30 Index rose 3.34%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.21% [3]. - The power equipment and new energy, and coal industries led the gains last week. The top five industries in the CSI primary industry index in terms of gains and losses were power equipment and new energy (3.61%), coal (3.59%), consumer services (3.52%), automobiles (3.43%), and electronics (2.75%). The bottom five industries were comprehensive (-4.09%), banking (-4.09%), non - ferrous metals (-3.93%), non - bank finance (-3.80%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.77%) [19]. 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the short - term performance of active equity funds, manufacturing and technology theme funds performed outstandingly. In the past week, the average interval returns of manufacturing and technology theme funds were 2.67% and 2.26% respectively; in the past three months, they were 30.99% and 44.66% respectively; in the past year, the technology and pharmaceutical theme funds performed prominently, with average interval returns of 96.18% and 59.78% respectively [20]. - Half of the active equity funds achieved positive returns last week, and the median interval return of active equity funds was 0.35%. Among different sectors, manufacturing and technology theme funds had the most prominent performance, with median interval returns of 2.56% and 1.95% respectively [23]. 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - The top - performing active equity fund last week was Jinxin Steady Strategy A (007872.OF), a technology - themed fund, with an interval return of 15.24% [25]. - The report also listed the top five industry - themed funds in terms of interval returns last week, including their basic information and performance [26]. 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - In terms of the average interval return last week, the top three ETF categories were technology (2.34%), manufacturing (1.78%), and international broad - based (0.84%) theme ETFs. In the past month, the top three were technology (15.57%), manufacturing (12.69%), and A - share broad - based (10.30%) theme ETFs [27]. 4.2 ETF Fund Capital Flow Statistics - In terms of capital inflows last week, the top categories were financial real estate (134.94 billion yuan), technology (87.83 billion yuan), and manufacturing (66.85 billion yuan) theme ETFs. The top categories in terms of capital outflows were A - share broad - based (148.82 billion yuan), bond (40.96 billion yuan), and commodity futures (16.30 billion yuan) theme ETFs [3]. - There were 448 ETFs with net capital inflows and 592 ETFs with net capital outflows last week. The top three ETFs in terms of capital inflows were Cathay CSI All - Share Securities Company ETF, Fullgoal CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, and E Fund China Securities Robot Industry ETF. The top three in terms of capital outflows were Huaxia SSE STAR Market 50 ETF, Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF, and Huatai - Peregrine SSE 300 ETF [34]. 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - As of September 19, 2025, the top three ETFs in terms of premium rate were Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF (2.87%), Bank of Communications 180 Governance ETF (1.87%), and Cathay CSI Consumer Electronics Theme ETF (1.06%). The top three in terms of discount rate were Huatai - Peregrine CSI A100 ETF (0.58%), Huaxia ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (0.51%), and ICBC Daiwa Nikkei 225 ETF (0.49%) [36]. 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - Last week, 47 public funds had new fund managers, involving 39 fund managers from 24 fund management companies. The fund management companies with the largest number of public funds with new fund managers were BOC Fund, Morgan Fund, CCB Fund, E Fund, and Invesco Great Wall Fund [38]. - Last week, 46 public funds had fund manager departures, involving 29 fund managers from 23 fund management companies. The fund management companies with the largest number of public funds with departing fund managers were Zheshang Fund, BOC Fund, and Morgan Fund [41]. 5.2 Newly Established Funds Last Week - A total of 63 public funds were newly established last week, with a combined issuance share of 74.828 billion. The fund type with the largest number of new funds was passive index funds, with 16 newly established and a combined issuance share of 9.095 billion. The fund type with the largest combined issuance share was passive index bond funds, with 15 newly established and a combined issuance share of 44.943 billion [44]. - The fund management company with the largest combined issuance share was Tianhong Fund, with newly established public funds including Tianhong CSI A500 Index Enhanced A, Tianhong China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index A, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong, with a combined issuance share of 6.408 billion [44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is lower than expected. Excluding automobiles, the year-on-year increase is 3.7% [6][13] - For the first eight months, the total retail sales amounted to 323,906 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a 5.1% increase excluding automobiles [6][13] - The jewelry sector continues to show high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% in August, driven by self-indulgent consumption and rising gold prices [6][20] - Online retail sales for the first eight months grew by 9.6%, with August online retail sales at 12,993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [6][29] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Data - In August, retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while dining revenue rose by 2.1% [6][14] - The CPI in August decreased by 0.4%, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [6][14] Retail Sales by Category - Essential goods showed weak demand for tobacco and alcohol, possibly due to stricter regulations, while other categories remained relatively stable [6][20] - In August, the retail sales of household appliances increased by 14.3% year-on-year, and furniture sales rose by 18.6% [6][22] Online Retail Data - The online retail sales of physical goods for the first eight months reached 80,964 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accounting for 28.2% of total retail sales [6][29] - The online sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities saw year-on-year increases of 15%, 2.4%, and 5.7%, respectively [6][29]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][56]. Core Views - The company is a leading global foundry in integrated circuit manufacturing, ranking fifth in global market share and is a leader in China's semiconductor industry [8]. - The semiconductor market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of $185.11 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% [33]. - The company has a comprehensive process platform that meets diverse customer needs, benefiting from the localization of chip manufacturing [41]. - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of $9.26 billion, $10.82 billion, and $12.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [51][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 and has established itself as a major player in the foundry market, providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry services [12]. - It has a strong management team with extensive industry experience and no single controlling shareholder [21][24]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese semiconductor market is experiencing robust growth, driven by local production demands and geopolitical factors that favor domestic foundries [34]. - The foundry industry has high entry barriers due to significant capital requirements, leading to a concentrated market structure [38]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.53% from 2018 to 2024 [26]. - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 22.04% year-on-year, indicating a return to profitability [26]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $9.26 billion in 2025, with a net profit of $679 million, reflecting a profit margin improvement [51][54]. - The projected gross margins for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.17%, 23.31%, and 26.14% respectively, indicating a positive trend in profitability [52]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a diverse customer base across various sectors, including telecommunications and consumer electronics, which supports its revenue expansion [43]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a current monthly capacity of 991,300 equivalent 8-inch wafers [46].