北新建材(000786) / 装修建材 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.25 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-10-24 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 32.35 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 16.32 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 14.89 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 16.90 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -36% -21% -6% 9% 24% 39% 北新建材 沪深300 上证指数 装修建材 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《一体稳健两翼推进，增长持续兑现》 2024-08-23 2. 《稳健之余迎成长，龙头之外有新机》 2024-07-29 3. 《Q1 业绩略超预期，经营现金流亦 有改善》 2024-04-28 业务稳健、价降费增，Q3 利润率下降 证券研究报告 ❖ 事件：2024Q1-3 营收 203.64 亿元同增 19.44%；归母净利润 3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown continuous high revenue growth, with Q1-Q3 revenue reaching 5.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 280 million yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while the non-recurring profit is 260 million yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, up 34.5% year-on-year, driven by successful new product expansions and increased marketing efforts [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from trends such as consumer downgrading in Europe and America and the online retail shift, with revenue growth anticipated to continue [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 8.27 billion yuan, 10.32 billion yuan, and 12.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 420 million yuan, 590 million yuan, and 710 million yuan [2][4] - The company's Q3 gross margin is 35.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6 percentage points, indicating significant marginal improvement [2][4] - The company’s Q3 net profit margin is 5.3%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s Q3 expense ratio is 29.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased brand marketing investments [2][4] - Sales expense ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while management expenses rose by 0.1 percentage points, and R&D expenses decreased by 0.1 percentage points [2][4] Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19, 13, and 11 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 109.72% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 2.535 billion yuan, with a net profit of 357 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 26,858.78% [2] - The demand for testing machines is recovering, driving rapid growth in the company's performance, with major clients including leading integrated circuit companies [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of domestic component localization, achieving a gross margin of 57.73% in Q3, which is higher than previous quarters, indicating improved profitability [2] - High R&D investment is maintained, with 673 million yuan spent in the first three quarters, accounting for 26.53% of revenue, supporting long-term development and innovation [2] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.254 billion, 4.150 billion, and 5.002 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 498 million, 793 million, and 1.038 billion yuan, leading to PE ratios of 56.13, 35.26, and 26.93 respectively [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 2.576 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 70.49%, while 2023 saw a decline to 1.775 billion yuan, with a projected recovery in 2024 to 3.254 billion yuan [4] - The net profit for 2022 was 461 million yuan, with a significant drop in 2023 to 45 million yuan, expected to rebound to 498 million yuan in 2024 [4] - The gross margin for 2022 was 56.7%, with a slight increase to 57.1% in 2023, and a projected gross margin of 55.2% in 2024 [4] - R&D expenses were 645 million yuan in 2022, increasing to 715 million yuan in 2023, with further increases projected in the coming years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 611 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 187 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.41% [2] - The gross margin improved in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 70.45%, up 8.02 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin software products [2] - The new oil chromatograph product is expected to drive growth, as it meets new requirements for online monitoring systems in substations, with a significant market potential given the number of transformers in China [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.371 billion, 1.610 billion, and 1.855 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 324 million, 420 million, and 533 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 17x, 13x, and 11x [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 208 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.04%, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.41% [2] - The company’s operating income is projected to grow at rates of -12.53%, 12.98%, 25.15%, 17.41%, and 15.22% from 2022 to 2026 [5] - The net profit is expected to grow at rates of 201.91%, 14.64%, 31.82%, 29.70%, and 26.82% over the same period [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.57 yuan in 2022 to 1.41 yuan in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.202 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 149 million yuan, up 15.17% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 139 million yuan, marking a 28.95% increase [2] - The company is a leader in air purification technology, focusing on industrial-grade ultra-clean technology in sectors such as semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, and public health. Its products have leading technical parameters and market share domestically, comparable to renowned overseas companies [2] - The gross profit margin has improved, driven by the expansion of the filter replacement business. The gross margin for Q3 2024 reached 32.22%, the highest in the company's history [2] - The company plans to privatize Jiexinlong, enhancing its product line. This acquisition will allow the company to expand its business scope and strengthen its competitiveness in the global market [2] - The forecast for the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 1.9 billion, 2.338 billion, and 2.850 billion yuan, with net profits of 245 million, 329 million, and 379 million yuan respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 22.95, 17.14, and 14.87 times [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is 1.899 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26.21%. The net profit is projected to be 245 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 41.63% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.83 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 22.95 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 13.09% in 2024, increasing to 15.08% in 2025 [3] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 2.532 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.389 billion yuan by 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.371 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 461 million yuan, up 10.03% year-on-year [2] - The company's Q3 revenue declined by 0.76%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 25.56%, primarily due to weak domestic demand in the LED display sector [2] - The gross margin for Q3 remained high at 54.10%, benefiting from the development of MiniLED technology [2] - The company continues to upgrade its products, enhancing capabilities for major global events such as the Paris Olympics [3] - The maturity of COB technology is accelerating the implementation of MLED projects, with signed investments reaching 68.895 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The company is positioned to leverage high-margin video equipment products and is making forward-looking investments in MLED detection equipment and chips [3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.805 billion yuan, with net profits of 752 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 25x [3] - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 24.59% for 2024, 27.07% for 2025, and 28.11% for 2026 [4] - The company’s net profit growth rates are expected to be 23.82% for 2024, 48.48% for 2025, and 31.22% for 2026 [4] - The gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 56.0% by 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations with structural optimization and improved cost efficiency [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 897 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 186 million yuan, up 64.79% year-on-year [2][3] - The company anticipates continued double-digit revenue growth and sustained high efficiency in cost management [3] Revenue Summary - Q3 revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, driven by increased sales of sausage and cured meat seasonings, with significant structural improvements [3] - Revenue growth by product category in Q3 2024: hot pot seasonings +1.14%, Chinese cuisine seasonings +18.07%, sausage and cured meat seasonings +19.68%, and other products -2.96% [3] Profit Summary - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 38.83%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 21.19%, up 7.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The improvement in gross profit margin is attributed to a favorable cost environment and an increased proportion of high-margin sausage and cured meat seasonings [3] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.49 billion yuan in 2024, 3.97 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.46 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.90%, 13.82%, and 12.16% respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 608 million yuan in 2024, 714 million yuan in 2025, and 803 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 33.23%, 17.33%, and 12.54% respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.57 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24.33x, 20.74x, and 18.43x [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In September, titanium ore prices remained high, and the price gap for titanium dioxide improved [1] - The report suggests focusing on Longbai Group, which has a strong production capacity and cost advantages in the titanium dioxide industry [2][28] Summary by Sections Titanium Ore - In September, domestic titanium ore production and sales slightly declined, with production at 610,200 tons (down 4.36% month-on-month) and sales at 428,700 tons (down 2.62% month-on-month) [2][6] - Import and export volumes were 26,770 tons and 520 tons respectively, with significant declines of 57.17% and 17.40% month-on-month [9] - The average price of titanium concentrate was approximately 2,175 RMB/ton at the end of September, showing a month-on-month increase of about 2.26% [11][2] Titanium Dioxide - In September, titanium dioxide production was 395,100 tons (down 0.55% month-on-month), while sales increased by 0.84% to 225,500 tons [12][18] - The average price of titanium dioxide was approximately 15,231 RMB/ton at the end of September, down 1.19% from the beginning of the month [19][20] - The price gap for sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was about 9,617 RMB/ton, benefiting from a decrease in raw material prices [20] Sponge Titanium - Sponge titanium production in September was 21,700 tons (down 4.82% month-on-month), with consumption at 4,800 tons (down 33.54% month-on-month) [21][24] - The average price of sponge titanium was around 43,000 RMB/ton, with prices under pressure due to weak downstream demand [28][27] - The inventory of sponge titanium increased to approximately 780 tons by the end of September [24][22] Investment Recommendations - Longbai Group is recommended for investment due to its annual production capacity of 1.51 million tons of titanium dioxide and 80,000 tons of sponge titanium, along with significant cost advantages and a complete industry chain [28][2]

Policy and Market Trends - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "M&A 6 Measures" in September to support listed companies in upgrading through M&A, particularly in strategic emerging industries and traditional industries aiming to improve industrial concentration[2][5] - With stricter IPO requirements, M&A is expected to become a significant channel for asset inflows and corporate financing in the A-share market, potentially leading to a wave of M&A activities[2][6] M&A Capability and Demand - Companies with strong policy support, such as those in strategic emerging industries,科创板 (STAR Market), and state-owned enterprises (SOEs), are more likely to engage in M&A due to easier access to funding and policy backing[2][8] - Companies with sufficient cash reserves (cash ratio >25%) and moderate ROE (5-15%) are better positioned for M&A, as they have the financial strength and operational capability to integrate acquired businesses[2][13][14] - Companies with moderate revenue growth (5-30%) and profit growth (5-30%) are more likely to pursue M&A to expand their product lines, enhance profitability, or seek new growth opportunities[2][16][17] Historical M&A Trends - During the 2013-2018 M&A wave, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecom) and pharmaceutical companies accounted for over 1/3 of all M&A cases, with annual M&A activity reaching nearly 20% of the total companies in these sectors[11][12] - Companies with medium-sized assets (15-40 billion RMB) and moderate ROE (5-15%) were more active in M&A compared to smaller or larger companies, indicating a preference for mid-sized firms with balanced financial metrics[13][14] M&A Evaluation Framework - A multi-dimensional evaluation system was developed to assess the M&A potential of tech and pharmaceutical companies, with factors including STAR Market listing, SOE status, asset size, cash ratio, ROE, and revenue/profit growth[19][20] - Companies scoring high in this framework, such as those with moderate asset size (15-40 billion RMB), high cash ratios (>25%), and moderate ROE (5-15%), were identified as potential M&A targets[19][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant performance exceeding expectations, with a revenue of 69.646 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.82%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.345 billion yuan, up 162.88% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2][3] - The company is benefiting from the AI-driven growth in consumer electronics, particularly in high-end microphones and TWS earphones, which are expected to see increased market penetration. The XR industry is also anticipated to provide substantial growth opportunities for the company [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.70% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 38.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.120 billion yuan, up 138.16% year-on-year and 32.48% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.36%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 2.27 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 2.618 billion yuan, 3.663 billion yuan, and 4.403 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.77 yuan, 1.07 yuan, and 1.29 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 31.61, 22.60, and 18.80 [3][4] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the XR manufacturing sector, with a comprehensive layout across various components, which is expected to leverage the growth in AI and XR markets [3] - The report anticipates a significant long-term growth potential driven by the integration of AI in consumer electronics and the expansion of the XR market [3][4]