Group 1: Policy Changes - The central bank and six departments issued guidelines to boost and expand consumption, highlighting three key changes in consumption policy[3] - The focus is shifting from goods consumption to service consumption, with increased emphasis on supporting service sectors[10] - The guidelines support the listing of quality consumption enterprises, indicating a dual shift in financing and income expansion policies[26] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, retail sales of goods grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service production index showed a weaker growth of 6.2%[12] - Urban residents' per capita annual property income grew by only 2.9% in 2023, significantly lower than the 8.7% compound growth from 2015 to 2021[24] - The guidelines propose a new 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program to enhance service consumption infrastructure[18] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Uncertainties in consumer expectations may affect the effectiveness of consumption policies[5] - The overseas economic environment could influence the pace of policy implementation, given the complexities in global markets[31] - The ability of capital markets to sustainably increase residents' income remains uncertain, with potential volatility in market performance[31]

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Value Added Discrepancy - Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of power generation has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of industrial value added, with industrial value added increasing by 6.3% from January to May, while power generation only grew by 0.3%[7] - The power generation data used refers only to large-scale industrial power generation enterprises, which excludes smaller enterprises that contribute less than 8% to total electricity consumption, thus limiting their impact on overall power generation growth[3] - The divergence between power generation and industrial value added is particularly pronounced in sectors such as electrical machinery, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and general equipment, where power consumption growth is significantly lower than industrial value added growth[23] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Industry Performance - The current economic environment shows a clear differentiation in performance between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises experiencing better profitability compared to smaller ones in the electrical machinery, chemical, non-metallic mineral, and general equipment sectors[35] - Many manufacturing sectors are facing overcapacity, with capacity utilization rates historically low, indicating a potential shift towards more efficient and advanced enterprises as less efficient capacities are phased out[28] - The ongoing divergence between power generation and industrial value added is expected to persist, reflecting weak demand and overcapacity in the industry, similar to conditions observed during the supply-side structural reforms in 2015[36]

Revenue and Expenditure Targets - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, below the annual target of 1.3%[10] - The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years[10] - General public budget expenditure from January to April reached 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth rate of 4.4%[16] Government Financing and Deficit - The narrow fiscal deficit for January to April was 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%[24] - The broad fiscal deficit reached 2.65 trillion yuan, with a usage rate of 19%, slightly above the average of 17.8% for the past five years[27] - Net financing of ordinary government bonds in the first five months was 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target, the highest since 2015[30] Special Bonds and Policy Support - The issuance of special bonds has been slower this year, with a progress rate of 37.1% in the first five months, lower than the levels of 2022 and 2023[32] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at 1.3 trillion yuan, with 363 billion yuan issued by the end of May, achieving a completion rate of 27.9%[32] - The proportion of special bonds used for land reserves has increased, with nearly 110 billion yuan issued, accounting for 7% of special bonds[36] Future Policy Outlook - The estimated revenue gap for broad fiscal income in 2025 is approximately 550 billion yuan, indicating a potential need for additional policy support if revenue performance does not improve[43] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and infrastructure projects[56]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the sector, highlighting potential growth opportunities driven by recent developments in the electric vehicle market, particularly with Tesla's initiatives in China and the U.S. [2][6] Market Performance - During the week from June 2 to June 6, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3385 points, up 1.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42% to 10184 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 2.66% to 2867 points. The large-cap index closed at 3438 points, up 0.75%, and the small-cap index closed at 4476 points, up 2.05%, with a small-cap to large-cap closing index ratio of 1.30 [10][11]. Key Events - **Tesla China Referral Program**: On June 5, Tesla China launched a referral program offering dual benefits for both referrers and buyers. Referrers can earn up to 8000 yuan in Tesla points for successful referrals, while buyers can receive 8000 yuan off paint options upon delivery [14][15]. - **Tesla's Inclusion in "Rural Electrification" Program**: On June 3, Tesla was included in China's 2025 "Rural Electrification" initiative, which features 124 models, marking the first time Tesla has been listed in this program [16][17]. - **Cybertruck Discount in the U.S.**: On June 6, Tesla announced a 5-year interest-free loan for the Cybertruck, available to customers who purchase the Full Self-Driving (FSD) package for $8000, with the promotion ending on June 30 [17][18]. - **Tesla's May Sales Figures**: In May, Tesla's wholesale sales in China reached 61,662 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15% but a month-on-month increase of 5.5% compared to April's sales of 58,459 units [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Yinlun Holdings, and Hengli Hydraulic, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing developments in the electric vehicle sector and related technologies [6][20].

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline as the previous month[10] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate recorded 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month[10] - The CPI month-on-month growth rate turned negative at -0.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[10] Group 2: Energy Prices Impact - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month and decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.13 and 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline, respectively[10] - The oil and gas extraction industry saw prices drop by 5.6%, while refined petroleum product manufacturing prices fell by 3.5%[28] - The coal mining industry experienced a price decline of 3.0%, with coal processing prices down by 1.1%[28] Group 3: PPI Trends - The PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded -3.3%, with a decline of 0.6 percentage points compared to last month[24] - The PPI month-on-month decline remained at -0.4%, consistent with the previous month[26] - Production material prices decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, while living material prices saw a decline of 1.4%[24] Group 4: Consumer Demand and Price Changes - Consumer demand showed marginal improvement, with seven major categories of prices rising, except for transportation and communication, which fell by 4.3%[10] - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables and eggs contributing to the decline[17] - Hotel accommodation and tourism prices increased by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, exceeding seasonal levels[20]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, continuing a downward trend from previous months[2] - The combined downward revision for March and April was 95,000, indicating a potential overestimation of current employment levels[2][5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%[2][10] Sector Analysis - Job growth in May was primarily driven by the service sector, which added 145,000 jobs, while government employment decreased by 22,000[8] - Manufacturing jobs saw a decline of 13,000, influenced by tariff policies[2][8] - The federal government has reduced employment by 59,000 since January, reflecting ongoing layoffs[5][8] Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9%[13] - The average workweek remained steady at 34.3 hours, suggesting stable wage growth may support consumer spending[13] Market Expectations - Following the release of the May non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly adjusted to two potential cuts within the year, with the earliest possible in September[21] - Despite the overall stability in unemployment rates, the declining labor force participation and continuous downward revisions in employment data suggest a cooling job market[21] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[25][26]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Insights - The current macroeconomic policy framework has significantly changed compared to the past, with a notable impact on risk appetite in the market[2] - Fiscal policy, traditionally seen as a counter-cyclical tool, may exhibit pro-cyclical characteristics due to constraints on government borrowing and spending patterns[4][6] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure has not kept pace with GDP growth in recent years, primarily due to the limitations of land finance[7] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Dynamics - The government debt level in China is relatively low, at less than 90% compared to over 210% in Japan and 110% in the US, indicating room for increased leverage[13] - The fiscal deficit target has been set at 4%, breaking the previous constraint of 3%, allowing for more flexible budget adjustments[16] - The shift in fiscal focus from public investment to public consumption is evident, with a decrease in spending on infrastructure-related projects and an increase in social services[29] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investment strategies should align with fiscal policy directions, particularly focusing on technology and consumption sectors[31] - Fiscal support for consumption is characterized by "inclusive consumption," with policies like the large-scale replacement of old consumer goods driving sales in sectors like automobiles and home appliances[38] - The trend of equity investment replacing debt investment in state-owned capital operations suggests a new direction for fiscal funding, particularly favoring technology leaders[34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights positive topline results from the clinical trial of STSA-1002 for ARDS, indicating a significant reduction in clinical relief time and mortality rates compared to the control group [6] - The application for the market approval of Bomitase α has been accepted, and the company has completed changes to its drug production license [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 294 million, 448 million, and 1.096 billion respectively, with a forecasted net profit of -76 million, -56 million, and 289 million [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 364 million, with a projected decline to 294 million in 2025 before increasing to 1.096 billion by 2027 [5][8] - The net profit is expected to improve from -399 million in 2023 to a positive 289 million in 2027 [5][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from -0.84 in 2023 to 0.61 in 2027 [5][8] Clinical Trial Results - The clinical trial for STSA-1002 showed that the low-dose and high-dose groups had risk ratios of 1.04 and 1.55 respectively, with a reduction in the time to clinical relief by 2 to 5 days [6] - The 28-day all-cause mortality rates were 26.67% for the low-dose group, 5.88% for the high-dose group, and 40% for the control group, indicating a significant reduction in mortality [6] Market and Regulatory Developments - The company has received acceptance for the market application of STSP-0601 (Bomitase α), which is a significant regulatory milestone [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the drug production license changes, which allow for the contracted production of Bomitase α [6]

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...