Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-Cycle Interest Rate Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines price-volume patterns and interest rate trend states to predict short-term fluctuations and optimize timing decisions[1][3][21] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Short-term Fluctuation Prediction**: - Utilizes futures and stock index trend models instead of traditional technical analysis indicators - Employs time-series networks to process price-volume and trend features, capturing nonlinear relationships for short-term fluctuation predictions[25][27] - Features include: - Price-volume features (e.g., closing price, trading volume, intraday returns, upward/downward amplitude)[26] - Trend features (e.g., adjusted returns over 1 month, 3 months, 1 year)[26] - Volatility features (e.g., short-term and medium-term volatility)[26] - Pattern features (e.g., K-line patterns with a 10-day lookback window)[26] - Time-series data is processed with a rolling window approach, retraining quarterly using historical data up to the current date[26] - **Interest Rate Trend State Recognition**: - Constructs state variables based on the term structure of government bond yields - Identifies trends through yield curve "deformations" using three metrics: 1. **Translation Trend Strength**: Measures the uniformity of yield movements across maturities using information entropy 2. **Twist Degree**: Assesses steepening or flattening of the yield curve using KL divergence 3. **Deformation Magnitude**: Measures yield changes relative to the previous period[30][31][32] - Preprocessed features include translation, twist, and deformation metrics for various maturities[34] - **Signal Synthesis**: - Combines price-volume and trend state features into a feature vector - Inputs the vector into a biLSTM-attn time-series network to generate timing signals (positive for long positions, non-positive for short positions)[41] - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates significant improvement in risk-return and timing accuracy compared to traditional technical analysis and price-volume-only models[27][42] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Short-Cycle Interest Rate Timing Model - **Annualized Return**: 6.63% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 3.93% - **Annualized Volatility**: 0.0252 - **Timing Accuracy**: 58.68% - **Average Profit-Loss Ratio**: 1.02 - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 2.56 - **Benchmark Sharpe Ratio**: 0.71[43] 2. Price-Volume Trend Model (Baseline) - **Annualized Return**: 4.68% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 2.03% - **Annualized Volatility**: 0.0249 - **Timing Accuracy**: 55.29% - **Average Profit-Loss Ratio**: 1.03 - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 1.85 - **Benchmark Sharpe Ratio**: 0.71[29] 3. Traditional Technical Analysis - **Annualized Return**: 2.92% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 0.32% - **Annualized Volatility**: 0.0250 - **Timing Accuracy**: 53.40% - **Average Profit-Loss Ratio**: 0.96 - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 1.16 - **Benchmark Sharpe Ratio**: 0.71[29] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Price-Volume Features - **Construction Idea**: Reflects market sentiment and risk preferences through short-term price-volume dynamics[3][21] - **Construction Process**: - **Closing Price**: Standardized using time-series z-score - **Trading Volume**: Standardized using time-series z-score - **Intraday Returns**: Calculated as `np.log(close/open)` - **Upward Amplitude**: Calculated as `np.log(high/open)` - **Downward Amplitude**: Calculated as `np.log(open/low)`[26] 2. Factor Name: Interest Rate Trend State Features - **Construction Idea**: Captures slow and continuous changes in the central tendency of interest rates through yield curve deformations[3][30] - **Construction Process**: - **Translation Trend Strength**: Measured using information entropy - **Twist Degree**: Measured using KL divergence - **Deformation Magnitude**: Measures yield changes relative to the previous period - Preprocessed features include metrics for various maturities (e.g., 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 years)[34] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Price-Volume Features - **Annualized Return**: 4.68% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 2.03% - **Annualized Volatility**: 0.0249 - **Timing Accuracy**: 55.29% - **Average Profit-Loss Ratio**: 1.03 - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 1.85 - **Benchmark Sharpe Ratio**: 0.71[29] 2. Interest Rate Trend State Features - **Annualized Return**: 6.63% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 3.93% - **Annualized Volatility**: 0.0252 - **Timing Accuracy**: 58.68% - **Average Profit-Loss Ratio**: 1.02 - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 2.56 - **Benchmark Sharpe Ratio**: 0.71[43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the re-evaluation of strategic minerals and the identification of cyclical investment opportunities [16][22] - The report highlights the impact of "de-globalization" and trade friction risks on the value of strategic resources, suggesting that these factors will enhance the strategic attributes of key minerals [16][22] - The anticipated monetary and fiscal policy easing in China and the U.S. in 2025 is expected to create a favorable environment for cyclical metal prices [18][24] Summary by Sections Annual Strategy - The annual strategy focuses on the re-evaluation of strategic minerals and capitalizing on cyclical opportunities, driven by global supply chain shifts and geopolitical tensions [16][22] - The report identifies key strategic minerals in China, including rare earths, antimony, and tungsten, with significant domestic production and reserves [20] - Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth, Jinchuan Group, and Zijin Mining, among others, based on their strategic resource attributes [20][38] Key Assumptions - The re-evaluation of strategic minerals is predicated on the intensification of "de-globalization" and trade friction risks, which could reshape the supply chain dynamics [22][24] - The cyclical investment thesis relies on the expectation of synchronized monetary easing in China and the U.S., which would benefit upstream industrial metal prices [24] Major Weaknesses - The potential for a slowdown in the re-evaluation of strategic minerals if global political and economic conditions stabilize, reducing trade friction [26] - The cyclical investment strategy may face challenges if monetary easing does not meet expectations, leading to pressure on industrial metal prices [26]

Investment Rating - The report rates the nuclear technology application industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The nuclear technology application sector is entering a rapid development phase, driven by the first top-level design aimed at accelerating industry application [23][24] - The industry has significant growth potential, with China's non-power nuclear technology application output value reaching approximately 700 billion yuan in 2022, compared to 300 billion yuan in 2015, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15% [31][34] - The government has set a target for the nuclear technology application industry to achieve an annual direct economic output of 400 billion yuan by 2026 [2][23] Summary by Sections Non-Power Nuclear Technology Applications - Non-power nuclear technology applications are crucial in various fields, including industry, agriculture, healthcare, and public safety, contributing significantly to national defense and economic development [2][10] - In 2022, the output value of non-power nuclear technology applications in China accounted for approximately 0.57% of GDP, indicating substantial growth potential compared to developed countries where the ratio is 2-3% [2][31] Industry Development and Structure - The industry is characterized by continuous improvement across various segments, with upstream and midstream layouts being particularly timely [37] - The accelerator technology is identified as a core device in nuclear technology applications, converting electron potential energy into kinetic energy to provide high-energy particle beams or radiation [39][42] Key Application Areas - **Industrial Sector**: The demand for irradiated materials is rapidly increasing, particularly in sectors like microelectronics, home appliances, and automotive, with the irradiated cable market expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by the end of 2023 [3][88] - **Healthcare**: Nuclear medicine is becoming an essential part of medical diagnostics and treatment, with ongoing efforts to enhance domestic production of medical isotopes and equipment [4][88] - **Agricultural and Environmental Protection**: Nuclear technology is applied in areas such as pest control, food safety, and environmental management, contributing to food security and sustainable agricultural development [4][88] - **Public Safety**: Nuclear detection technologies are widely used in security checks at transportation hubs, utilizing X-ray and neutron detection technologies [4][88] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China General Nuclear Power Technology (accelerators and nuclear technology applications), China Isotope & Radiation Corporation (nuclear medicine and irradiation applications), and others involved in various segments of the nuclear technology application industry [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The "Guzi Economy" is driven by the continuous penetration of ACG (Animation, Comic, Game) culture, with the market for related products growing from 5.3 billion CNY in 2016 to 102.4 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 52.7%[3] - The market for ACG-related products is projected to reach 160 billion CNY by 2026, representing a growth of 1.7 times compared to 2021[3] - The proportion of ACG-related products in the overall ACG industry increased from 28.0% to 46.1% from 2016 to 2023[21] Group 2: Industry Chain Insights - The "Guzi Economy" involves multiple segments including IP development, production, and sales channels, with a focus on upstream IP design and downstream sales channels as core components[27] - Upstream, domestic IP developers are increasingly collaborating with operators to enhance the reach of local IPs, with notable successes in the market[4] - The midstream production segment has low barriers to entry but is expected to benefit from the growth of quality IP resources[5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The Gen Z demographic, which constitutes 95% of the ACG user base, is a significant driver of the "Guzi Economy," characterized by diverse interests and a focus on experiential consumption[25] - The emergence of offline "Guzi stores" and the transformation of traditional malls are expanding the consumer base and influence of the "Guzi Economy"[45] - Online platforms, especially for second-hand transactions, are enhancing the economic effects of "Guzi" products, attracting a broader audience beyond traditional ACG fans[49] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - A "Guzi Economy" stock pool has been constructed based on upstream, midstream, and downstream perspectives, providing a selection of investment opportunities[52] - The "Guzi Index," based on the stock pool, achieved a net value increase of 52.5% from November 29, 2023, to November 29, 2024, outperforming the Wind All A Index by 42.64%[55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6][30] Core Insights - Salesforce's Q3 FY2025 performance exceeded expectations, with significant profit improvement driven by AI capabilities. The newly launched AgentForce is expected to achieve large-scale commercialization in the coming quarters [2][3] - The company reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $9.444 billion (YoY +8.31%, market expectation $9.35 billion) and net profit of $1.527 billion (YoY +24.8%, market expectation $1.406 billion). The gross margin was 77.71% (YoY +2.42 percentage points) and net margin was 16.17% (YoY +2.13 percentage points) [3] - Salesforce's operating cash flow for the quarter reached $1.983 billion (YoY +29.4%), with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.63% (YoY +0.52 percentage points) [3] Summary by Sections Salesforce Performance - In Q4 FY2025, Salesforce expects revenue between $9.9 billion and $10.1 billion (YoY +7-9%) and a full-year revenue forecast of $37.8 billion to $38 billion (YoY +8-9%) [3] - The company introduced AgentForce, an AI application aimed at transforming enterprise automation, which is expected to facilitate thousands of transactions in the upcoming quarters [4] Domestic AI Agent Ecosystem - The domestic AI ecosystem is rapidly developing, with various companies like iFlytek, CaiXun, Dingjie Zhizhi, and Fanwei Network launching AI Agent products. This is anticipated to accelerate the application in office, finance, customer service, and intelligent marketing scenarios [5] Recommended Stocks - Suggested stocks to watch include: iFlytek, JiaoDian Technology, Dingjie Zhizhi, CaiXun, MaiFuShi, TuoErSi, and Fanwei Network for AI Agent applications; Kingsoft Office, Wanxing Technology, Kunlun Wanwei, Hongsoft Technology, RunDa Medical, Meitu, and SenseTime for AI vertical applications [6]

Market Structure and Incremental Funds - Incremental funds are categorized into four types: margin balances, margin trading balances, ETF passive equity funds, and active equity funds[1] - In the 2014-2015 "liquidity" bull market, high-risk preference margin and margin trading funds dominated market pricing, favoring small-cap styles like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000[1] - During the 2019-2021 "core assets" bull market, active equity funds dominated market pricing, favoring large-cap styles like CSI 300 and SSE 50[1] 2014-2015 Market Dynamics - Economic downturn led to declining corporate profits, with GDP growth falling from 7.9% in Q3 2013 to 6.9% in Q4 2015[22] - Margin balances and margin trading balances surged by 276.38 billion yuan and 164.3 billion yuan, respectively, driving small-cap outperformance[27] - CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 outperformed with gains of 133% and 174%, respectively[30] 2019-2021 Market Dynamics - Economic recovery and improved corporate profits, with A-share ROE rising from a low in Q2 2020 to 10.1% in Q2 2021[35] - Active equity funds grew by 3.442 trillion yuan, surpassing other fund types, leading to large-cap outperformance[41] - CSI 300 and SSE 50 outperformed with gains of 68% and 54%, respectively[45] Post-"924" Market Dynamics - Since the "924" market, ETF and margin trading funds have been the main incremental funds, with ETF funds increasing by 790.3 billion yuan and margin trading balances by 454.5 billion yuan[54] - Small-cap styles like CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 outperformed with gains of 40% and 36%, respectively[61] - ETF funds show a preference for small-cap styles, with small-cap ETF growth at 28% compared to 22% for large-cap ETFs[55] Investment Recommendations - Maintain a "market cap down" strategy, focusing on small-cap investment opportunities due to the dominance of margin trading and ETF funds[66] - Large-cap styles may regain dominance if fundamental improvements are validated, favoring value-oriented active equity funds[66]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][8] Core Views - The company, Jingda Co., Ltd. (精达股份), is actively involved in the high-temperature superconducting materials sector through its subsidiary Shanghai Superconductor, which has applied for listing guidance [2] - Shanghai Superconductor is recognized as a global leader in the superconducting field, with its products widely used in cutting-edge technologies such as controlled nuclear fusion and superconducting electricity [3] - The company has participated in several "world-first" projects and is expanding its production capacity to meet growing demand in both domestic and international markets [4] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 21.038 billion, 23.590 billion, and 26.123 billion respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 17.5%, 12.1%, and 10.7% [5] - Expected net profits for the same years are 558 million, 668 million, and 774 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 30.8%, 19.7%, and 16.0% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.26, 0.32, and 0.37 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 24.27, 20.28, and 17.48 [5] Company Overview - Jingda Co., Ltd. holds an 18.29% stake in Shanghai Superconductor, which is a key player in the high-temperature superconducting materials market [2] - The company has established strong partnerships with various domestic and international organizations, enhancing its market presence and technological capabilities [4]

Economic Growth Outlook - The economic fundamentals in November 2024 continue to show signs of recovery, with a slight GDP growth expected in Q4, aiming for around 5% growth for the year[2][18]. - Industrial production is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in November, supported by preemptive policies aimed at stabilizing growth[3][20]. Consumer and Retail Trends - Social retail sales are expected to increase by 4.5% year-on-year in November, slightly down from 4.8% in October, with the automotive sector showing continued recovery due to promotional activities[4][22]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with sales area in 30 major cities turning positive, indicating support for post-real estate consumption[4][24]. Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth is estimated at 3.3% for January-November 2024, with infrastructure investment up by 4.4% and manufacturing investment up by 9.3%, while real estate investment declines by 9.9%[5][25]. - Manufacturing investment is a strong variable in the macroeconomic landscape, with a projected growth of 9.3% year-on-year for January-November 2024[5][32]. Export and Import Performance - Exports in November are expected to grow by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by a "cost-performance dividend" that enhances competitiveness in various sectors[7][51]. - Imports are projected to decline by 1.8%, but there is potential for gradual improvement following recent policy measures[7][51]. Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year in November, indicating a slight recovery, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to remain stable at -2.9% year-on-year[8][52]. - The CPI reflects pressures in industrial consumer goods, while service prices show a slight increase due to seasonal effects[8][54]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 5.0% in November, with industrial and service sectors providing some support for job absorption[9][53]. - Youth employment remains a significant concern, with policies aimed at supporting job creation for recent graduates[9][53]. Financial Data Insights - New RMB loans in November are projected at 600 billion, a decrease of approximately 490 billion year-on-year, reflecting a slight decline in growth rate to 7.7%[10][10]. - The total social financing (TSF) is expected to increase by 2.5 trillion, maintaining a growth rate of around 7.8%[10][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][6]. Core Insights - The company announced the establishment of a joint venture named "Longsheng Weirui Innovation Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd." with a registered capital of 10 million yuan, where the company will contribute 9 million yuan, holding a 90% stake [3]. - The joint venture aims to focus on innovative technology exploration in advanced equipment and precision manufacturing, particularly in humanoid robots, low-altitude aircraft, and hydrogen energy [3]. - The company plans to apply 20-30 humanoid robots in real-world scenarios by the end of the year, emphasizing rapid precision positioning and multi-dimensional perception technologies [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 2.661 billion, 3.347 billion, and 4.067 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 45.6%, 25.8%, and 21.5% respectively [4][8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are expected to be 238 million, 315 million, and 398 million yuan, with year-over-year growth of 61.9%, 32.6%, and 26.2% respectively [4][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.03, 1.36, and 1.72 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25.12, 18.95, and 15.01 [4][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Longsheng Technology (300680) is focusing on the development of humanoid robots and advanced manufacturing technologies through a new joint venture [3]. Financial Projections - Expected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.661 billion, 3.347 billion, and 4.067 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 45.6%, 25.8%, and 21.5% [4][8]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 238 million, 315 million, and 398 million yuan, with growth rates of 61.9%, 32.6%, and 26.2% [4][8]. - EPS estimates are 1.03, 1.36, and 1.72 yuan, with P/E ratios of 25.12, 18.95, and 15.01 [4][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The offline cycle is approaching, supported by macroeconomic factors, pricing, and consumer policies, driving innovation and experience upgrades, leading to unexpected profit growth [2][3] - The local service competition is easing, with strong competitive advantages for leading companies, and the profitability of instant retail is expected to improve with accelerated front warehouse layouts [2] - The tourism sector is recovering, with travel demand surpassing pre-pandemic levels, particularly among younger consumers seeking experiential consumption [2][3] - The OTA platforms are showing high growth potential and strong barriers, with overall performance exceeding expectations [2][3] - The hotel industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with strategic adjustments expected to enhance efficiency [2][3] - E-commerce is experiencing a mild recovery driven by national subsidies and promotional events, focusing on quality supply [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The social service and retail sectors have underperformed the market, with the social service sector down 2.27% year-to-date [17] - The net profit of the social service sector increased by 27.3% in Q3 2024, reflecting a significant rebound effect from last year's low base [17] 2. Travel Chain - The travel chain is experiencing continued growth, with tourism numbers and revenue recovering beyond 2019 levels [23] - Policies supporting tourism consumption are expected to further stimulate demand [23] - OTA platforms are seeing improved performance, with revenue growth outpacing the overall tourism market [36] 3. Local Life - The competition landscape is optimizing, with instant retail models showing potential for profitability [88] - The leading player, Meituan, maintains a strong market position, while new entrants are struggling to make significant impacts [88] 4. Offline Retail - The offline retail sector is entering a transformation phase, with a shift towards direct procurement models [115] - CPI improvements are expected to enhance same-store sales performance [115] 5. E-commerce - E-commerce platforms are witnessing a recovery, with national policies stimulating demand and improving the business environment [140] - The focus is shifting from price wars to quality competition among platforms [140] 6. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Yonghui Supermarket, Meituan, Alibaba, and Ctrip, among others, as they are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends [2][3]