- The macro scoring model is optimistic about Chinese bonds, US stocks, copper, and crude oil[24] - The US stock timing model indicates a potential strengthening of US stocks driven by an upward revision in rate cut expectations[25] - The gold timing model remains positive on gold, with the latest indicator value at -0.51, slightly improved from the previous month[27] - The crude oil timing model maintains a cautious view, with the latest crude oil sentiment index reading at -0.05, remaining below the zero axis[33] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier of single crystal silicon materials for integrated circuit etching, holding approximately 15% of the global market share. It is expected to benefit from the overall supply chain improvement driven by the storage industry's growth cycle, leading to potentially exceeding performance expectations [1][2] - The company has established a strong position in the semiconductor materials sector since its inception in 2013, with a product matrix that includes large diameter etching silicon materials, silicon components, and large-size silicon wafers. Its integrated R&D and production capabilities provide a sustainable competitive advantage [2] - The demand for large diameter silicon materials is expected to rise due to increased utilization in storage chip manufacturing, particularly as the global tech giants ramp up capital expenditures for computing centers. This trend is anticipated to create structural shortages in storage chip capacity [3] - The company has a stable export market for its large diameter silicon materials, with products already integrated into major domestic etching equipment manufacturers and wafer fabs. Its product range covers 14-inch to 22-inch specifications, catering to a broad customer base across key semiconductor regions [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 450 million, 800 million, and 1.32 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47.2%, 78.5%, and 65.3% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 100 million, 260 million, and 440 million yuan, with growth rates of 152.9%, 152.8%, and 68.4% respectively [12][14] - The estimated P/E ratios based on the closing price as of January 6, 2026, are 120.9, 47.8, and 28.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Publicly - offered REITs have the characteristics of "high dividends + inflation resistance + asset growth". With the "bond floor" of mandatory dividends and the "equity wing" of asset appreciation, they provide a scarce tool for enhancing returns and hedging risks, and are ideal "fixed - income +" tools to solve the current "asset shortage" [1][39]. - Through the differentiation of income sources, publicly - offered REITs effectively diversify portfolio risks. The market is still in its early stage of development, with broad space for asset expansion, category innovation, and platform growth, and has long - term strategic allocation value [39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 REITs Definition and Market Overview - Publicly - offered REITs are standardized financial products that pool the funds of multiple investors by issuing income certificates, hold the ownership or management rights of real estate assets in the structure of "public fund + asset - backed securities", and are publicly traded on stock exchanges. Their multi - layer structure effectively achieves the key goals of risk isolation, tax neutrality, and public offering [2][17]. - As of December 2025, the total market value of China's publicly - offered REITs market was nearly 220 billion yuan, with 79 listed products. The market has shown a continuous expansion trend, and the asset types have gradually diversified [3][24]. - The market investors of publicly - offered REITs include strategic investors, offline investors, and public investors. General legal persons are the largest holders, accounting for 59.09%, followed by securities firms' proprietary trading with a 19.42% share [2][37]. 3.2 Reasons to Focus on Publicly - offered REITs - Solving the "asset shortage" as a "fixed - income +" tool: In the low - interest - rate environment, REITs offer a more attractive asset option, with higher initial distribution yields than traditional bonds. From early 2024 to the end of 2025, the cumulative increase of the CSI REITs Total Return Index was 18.82%, providing higher returns than pure - bond assets and having anti - decline and defensive properties [4][40]. - Dual income sources: Publicly - offered REITs achieve an optimized income structure through the compound model of "bottom - position dividends + potential growth", combining the stability of bonds and the growth potential of stocks. Regulatory requirements mandate that over 90% of distributable amounts be used for dividends, and asset value growth gives them "equity" potential [5][42]. - Huge expansion potential and innovation space: The expansion mechanism is becoming more normalized, and the entry of incremental funds is expected. The market has broad growth prospects, and new products such as REITs ETFs are being explored [6][46]. 3.3 Core Differences between REITs and Bonds - Legal relationship: REITs investors are shareholders, with a residual claim on the underlying real estate assets and operating cash flows. Bond investors are creditors, with a clear contractual relationship with the issuer [49][50]. - Income source: REITs' investment returns are mainly driven by operating dividends, with capital gains reflecting asset valuation changes. Bond returns mainly come from contractual coupon income, and secondary - market price differences reflect interest rate and credit spread changes [51]. - Risk characteristics: REITs face operating and market risks, while bonds are mainly affected by interest rate and credit risks [52][53]. - Report perspective: REITs focus on the sustainability of asset - operating cash flows, while bonds focus on the issuer's solvency and credit safety margin [55]. 3.4 Asset Type "Atlas" of China's Publicly - offered REITs - The underlying assets can be divided into two categories: property rights and franchise rights. The market shows a pattern of dominance by leading assets and insufficient supply at the tail end. The top three in terms of market - value proportion are transportation infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and park infrastructure, which together account for 59.56% of the total market scale [9]. - Key points of different underlying assets: Transportation assets emphasize policies and location; consumer assets focus on the economic cycle and operation; park assets depend on industries and the ecological environment; warehousing and logistics rely on location and leases; energy infrastructure is related to policies and technology; and affordable rental housing needs to balance policies and people's livelihoods [9]. 3.5 Investment Strategies - REITs market performance is differentiated. Consumer infrastructure, affordable rental housing, and warehousing and logistics REITs show relatively high investment value. Consumer infrastructure REITs have an average increase of 32.48% since their establishment, with strong cash - flow stability and growth elasticity [10][68]. - An investment strategy of "dumbbell - shaped" allocation and "high - dividend - yield" tactics can be adopted. In the short term, focus on "defensive and stable" sectors, and gradually make left - hand side investments in "long - duration high - quality assets" [10][69].

Market Overview - On January 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.38%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.9%, the STAR 50 surged by 4.41%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 2.09%, the ChiNext Index went up by 2.85%, and the Hang Seng Index slightly increased by 0.03% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on January 5 were Media (+4.12%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+3.85%), Electronics (+3.69%), Non-Bank Financials (+3.14%), and Computers (+2.71%). The worst-performing sectors included Oil and Petrochemicals (-1.29%), Banks (-0.34%), Transportation (-0.3%), and Retail (-0.17%) [5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 5 was 25,672 billion, with a net inflow of 18.723 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Key Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditure and an acceleration in domestic production rates, leading to a positive outlook for orders in the semiconductor equipment segment [6][7] - Four major growth directions are highlighted: 1. AI-driven storage supercycle focusing on etching and thin-film equipment leaders 2. Dawn of domestic photolithography machine production, emphasizing core subsystems and components 3. Evolution of cutting-edge technologies, with ALD equipment entering a golden development period 4. Advanced packaging continuing the Moore's Law, with substantial room for equipment localization [7] - The driving factors include accelerated capital expenditure from domestic wafer fabs and higher-than-expected domestic production rates [7] Investment Opportunities - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI applications, marking the beginning of a significant growth phase in the sector [8] - The convergence of application, computing power, and capital is expected to trigger a "flywheel" effect in embodied intelligence [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The overall box office in 2025 reached 51.832 billion, with total audience attendance at 1.238 billion, showing an increase of over 20% compared to the previous year [3] - The Spring Festival and summer holiday periods contributed significantly to the box office recovery, with the Spring Festival box office reaching a record high of 9.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.69% [8] - The structure of the film market is gradually adjusting, with a concentration of top films, particularly in the animation genre, leading to a "winner takes all" scenario [8] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - In 2025, the box office performance showed a recovery with significant contributions from key holiday periods [3][8] - The number of films grossing over 1 billion was 51, while the number of films grossing between 1-2 billion was 11, indicating a strong performance in the top tier [5] Market Trends - The film market is experiencing a structural shift, with fewer mid-tier films and a concentration of box office revenue among top films [8] - The industry is expected to continue its recovery trend, with projections for 2026 indicating a potential box office of 53.1 billion [14] Investment Opportunities - There are short-term investment opportunities in strong holiday periods, particularly during the Spring Festival and summer holidays, driven by high-quality film releases [9][11] - Companies such as Wanda Film, Bona Film, and Shanghai Film are highlighted as having significant potential for growth in the upcoming holiday seasons [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - Alibaba's cloud business is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability as it scales, with a long-term certainty of margin enhancement [2][39] - The company is currently in a high capital expenditure phase, with Q3 2025 capital expenditures reaching 31.428 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 85.12% [2][32] - Despite two consecutive quarters of declining free cash flow, Alibaba maintains a strong cash position with 292.3 billion RMB in net cash and liquid investments [2][34] Summary by Relevant Sections Cloud Business and AI Development - Alibaba's cloud business, while currently lagging behind competitors like AWS and Microsoft in EBITA margin, has the potential for significant margin improvement as it grows [2][37] - The launch of the "Qianwen" AI application has seen rapid user growth, with over 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of its public testing [15][16] - The integration of AI capabilities into Alibaba's ecosystem is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency across various platforms [21][23] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are estimated at 1,068.23 billion, 1,177.88 billion, and 1,298.12 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 10.3%, and 10.2% respectively [3][40] - Adjusted net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 119.85 billion, 160.11 billion, and 213.63 billion RMB, with growth rates of -24.1%, 33.6%, and 33.4% [3][40] - The target price is set at HKD 189.09 per share, based on a 12x PE ratio for FY2027 adjusted net profit and a 7x PS ratio for FY2027 cloud revenue [3][40] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company is committed to high capital expenditures to ensure competitive supply, with plans to invest 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [32] - The recent decline in free cash flow, reported at -21.84 billion RMB for Q3 2025, has raised market concerns, but the company’s cash reserves provide a buffer for new business investments [34][34] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the AI and cloud sectors is intensifying, with Alibaba's Qianwen positioned as a strong contender against other AI applications like Doubao [16][18] - The strategic integration of AI into Alibaba's e-commerce and travel services is expected to redefine user interactions and operational efficiencies [21][26]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the mechanical industry in 2026, driven by structural transformation and a rebound in external demand [3][4] - The report introduces a "risk排雷" manual to proactively identify potential market misjudgments and challenges within various sectors [3][4] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with growth in engineering machinery, industrial gases, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium battery equipment [6][8] - Key assumptions include continued government support for emerging technology industries and a stable macroeconomic recovery [11][16] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a cyclical upturn, with increased overseas market share and a gradual domestic renewal cycle [17] - Key growth drivers include global market expansion, improved domestic demand due to favorable macro policies, and a stabilizing domestic infrastructure and real estate market [17] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trend, with demand supported by a variety of vessel types and improving profitability for shipyards [19] - The sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints driving up ship prices and a focus on high-end, large-scale, dual-fuel vessels [20] Export Chain - The export chain is optimistic about demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. market, with a focus on strategic exports and emerging markets [22] - Key assumptions include a favorable trade environment and ongoing industrial shifts towards resource-rich countries [22] Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is viewed positively, with expectations of volume and price increases leading to improved valuations [27] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the sector and recommends focusing on those with operational highlights in niche markets [30] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to emerge from a downturn, with solid-state battery technology creating significant market opportunities [51] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in market size, projecting a growth from 2.06 billion in 2025 to 33.62 billion by 2030 [51] Wind Power Equipment - The wind power industry is projected to maintain high growth, particularly in offshore wind projects, with significant investments expected [63] - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers and components that support the offshore wind market [64] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection sector is expected to see upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading firms [71] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on emerging fields and the long-term growth potential of comprehensive testing companies [71] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from steady investment in fixed assets and high demand for passenger and freight transport [75] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the high-speed train sector and recommends key players in the industry [76] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is anticipated to thrive due to sustained demand driven by oil prices and energy security concerns [79] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technical barriers and those benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [80]

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for A-shares after the New Year, driven by the recent gains in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index, suggesting a high probability of a positive market opening [2][3] - The report highlights three key factors that previously supported the continuous rise of A-shares: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the sustained strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector, though their continuation post-holiday remains uncertain [2][3] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and avoid chasing prices, while being prepared to increase allocations if a buying opportunity arises similar to the "golden pit" seen in early 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic analysis predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, indicating a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [4] - Economic activities in December are expected to accelerate, supported by both domestic and external demand, with a reasonable chance of achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [4] - Industrial production is identified as a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is projected to see a slight recovery, although automotive sales are expected to face challenges due to declining volumes and increased discounts [4]

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment index has significantly outperformed the market since the beginning of 2025, with a cumulative increase of 62.3% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 42.0% [3][13] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high prosperity, with the global semiconductor market expected to reach a historical high of $760.7 billion in 2026, driven by AI [3][36] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is seeing a strong recovery in wafer fab capacity utilization and expansion willingness, supported by the AI-driven storage supercycle [3][36] Group 2 - Four key investment directions are recommended: 1. Focus on etching and thin film equipment leaders driven by AI storage supercycle [3] 2. Domestic lithography machine production is expected to achieve mass production in 2026, boosting subsystem and component companies [3] 3. ALD equipment is entering a golden development period, especially in advanced logic and storage fields [3] 4. Advanced packaging continues to follow Moore's Law, providing significant opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [3] Group 3 - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as North China Innovation, Zhongwei Company, and TuoJing Technology, as well as high-elasticity targets like XinYuanWei and HuaHaiQingKe [3] - The overall revenue of the semiconductor equipment industry is projected to grow by 36% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, with leading companies maintaining high growth rates [15] - The overall net profit of the semiconductor equipment industry is expected to increase by 22% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, with significant profit acceleration from companies like Shengmei and TuoJing [15][24] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with AI as the core engine driving the market [36] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% from 2004 to 2024, with a significant recovery and expansion phase starting from 2023 [36] - The capital expenditure of the top eight cloud service providers is expected to increase by 40% in 2026, reaching $600 billion, further supporting the semiconductor market growth [36]

新动能，新浦发 ——浦发银行推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 2026 年银行股重启业绩增长周期，首推增长动能强的浦发银行，空间 35%。 分验证这一管理优势，展望未来，我们认为浦发银行经营向好态势有望延续。 ③新弹药。25Q3 末浦发银行核充率 8.87%，2025 年 10 月转债转股后，静态测算 核充率有望提升 32bp 至 9.19%。新的资本弹药为浦发银行后续扩表打开空间， 也有助于其夯实业绩改善基础、保持经营向好态势的可持续性。 ④新生态。张为忠董事长在 2024 年年报中表示，将以"数智化"推动转型。我 们在 2025 年 4 月 16 日报告中也指出，数智化驱动经营、风控、效率三大革命， 推动 ROE 向同业平均水平靠拢。从 2025 年经营表现看，这一观点正得到验证。 25Q1~3 浦发银行的年化 ROE 同比提升 0.6pc 至 7.6%，与同业差距收窄 1.5pc。 其中，经营革命驱动 25Q3 负债成本率同比下降 44bp 至 1.62%；风控革命驱动 25Q1~3 信用成本率同比下降 2bp 至 1%；效率革命驱动 25Q1~3 成本收入比同比 下降 0.5pc 至 27.5%。展望未来，浦发 ...