Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was under pressure due to declining profitability in the organic solvent segment, but there is optimism for future growth in the fragrance and lithium resource businesses [3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.966 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 227 million yuan, a decrease of 10.18% [2][3] - The company has established a strong position in the synthetic fragrance market and is expanding its production capacity in both Ningxia and Jiangsu, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [4][5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.66 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, and a return on equity of 10.19% [2][3] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.81%, and a net profit of 0.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.98% [2][3] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.07 billion yuan, 3.75 billion yuan, and 4.52 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.59, 1.94, and 2.35 yuan [10][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [6] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 125% to 34%, alleviating negative pressures on the supply chain [2] - Apple's price reduction on the iPhone 16 models aims to boost sales volume in the second quarter, which is typically a season for inventory clearance, thus positively impacting the supply chain [3] - The introduction of AI smartphones and foldable screens is expected to drive a new replacement cycle for iPhones, enhancing the average selling price (ASP) of core components in the supply chain [3] - The market sentiment around emerging terminal technologies, such as humanoid robots and AI glasses, has led to an increase in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of core suppliers, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4] - Recommended core supply chain stocks include Lens Technology, Linyang Technology, Xinwanda, and Pengding Holdings [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Changes - The US has announced a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, with only 10% remaining, effectively neutralizing the short-term impact of the tariff war on the supply chain [2] Section 2: iPhone Pricing Strategy - Apple's recent price cuts on the iPhone 16 Pro Max and Pro models, with reductions of $160 and $176 respectively, are aimed at increasing sales volume and supporting supply chain growth [1][3] Section 3: Future Innovations - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones and foldable devices is expected to create a new wave of demand, leading to a rise in ASP for core suppliers over the next two years [3] Section 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite the positive developments, the market has not fully recovered to pre-tariff levels, but the recent price cuts and tariff negotiations suggest a potential for valuation recovery in the supply chain [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 消费电子 消费电子 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 13 日 对等关税暂缓消弭短期冲击，iPhone 16 降价夯实果链成长弹性 投资要点 ❑ 事件 1、中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国将（一）修改 2025 年 4 月 2 日第 14257 号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加 征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行 政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税；（二）取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。 2、5 月 10 日，苹果向渠道商下发调价通知，iPhone 16 Pro Max 所有容量版本降 价 160 美元；iPhone 16 Pro 的 128GB 版本降价 176 美元，其他版本同样降价 160 美元。 ❑ 对等关税暂缓果链负面压力消弭 归纳此次声明内容：美国对我国商品加征的从价关税从 125%调降至 34%，其中 24%在初始的 90 天内暂停实施，这意味着之前关税战对果链的利空基本 ...

报告日期：2025 年 05 月 13 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 13 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商汽车 刘巍】翔楼新材（301160）公司深度：国内精密冲压材料龙头，大力推进谐波柔轮材料国产替代—— 20250511 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：5 月 12 日上证指数上涨 0.82%，沪深 300 上涨 1.16%，科创 50 上涨 0.49%，中证 1000 上涨 1.4%，创业板 指上涨 2.63%，恒生指数上涨 2.98%。 行业：5 月 12 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+4.8%)、电力设备（+2.69%)、机械设备（+2.24%)、非银金融 （+2.08%)、汽车（+1.91%)，表现最差的行业分别是农林牧渔（-0.49%)、医药生物（-0.27%)、公用事业（-0.26%)、 美容护理（-0.04%)、煤炭（+0.05%)。 资金：5 月 12 日全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the ODM refrigerator export market in China, and it is expected to benefit from the continued export boom in the refrigerator industry, which may drive its performance beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Performance Outlook - The market anticipates that the company will experience rapid growth in 2024 due to the refrigerator export wave, but growth may slow significantly in 2025 due to factors such as the completion of overseas inventory replenishment and tariff pressures in North America [2] - In Q1, China's refrigerator export volume increased by 11.8% year-on-year, and export value rose by 11.3% year-on-year, indicating strong overseas demand [3] Regional Market Insights - The company primarily exports to Europe and emerging markets, which are expected to continue benefiting from strong demand. Specifically, exports to Europe grew by 7% year-on-year in Q1, while exports to Latin America surged by 43% year-on-year [3] - The company's exposure to the U.S. market is minimal, accounting for less than 5% of total revenue, thus insulating it from North American tariff and demand fluctuations [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 204.04 billion, 223.44 billion, and 241.08 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.13%, 9.50%, and 7.90% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 11.47 billion, 12.73 billion, and 13.90 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 12.56%, 10.96%, and 9.19% [4][5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.06, 1.17, and 1.28 CNY, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10X, 9X, and 8X, indicating that the company is undervalued as a leading refrigerator exporter [4][5]

本次联合声明后，国债收益率曲线陡峭的逻辑或发生一定变化。我们认为短期调整或 进一步打开长期国债赔率空间，建议投资者保持耐心，组合仓位阶段性集中在中短端， 配置盘可趁调整期间倒三角进场建仓或为胜率较高策略。 ❑ 如何理解中美联合声明 5 月 12 日，商务部发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，一方面，中美双方互降 关税力度远超市场预期，即便考虑 4 月前美国因芬太尼问题对中国加征的 20%关 税，特朗普政府上台后中国对美出口所面临的关税税率边际增加值也仅为 30%（已 确定）+24%（暂停 90 天），较双方博弈高峰时期的 145%出现大幅降低。另一方 面，中美双方表示将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商，为后续有效管控贸易 摩擦、进一步推动潜在关税税率调降铺平道路。参考 2018 年中美贸易摩擦发展历 程，本次中美贸易商谈成效之高、节奏之快构成本次声明超预期的主要原因。我 们认为，中国或为本次联合声明的主要赢家。美国内外部环境交困，或迫使特朗 普政府在谈判过程中难以保持强硬态度，而国内充足的政策储备构成支撑宏观经 济的基本盘，自上轮贸易摩擦以来持续走低的对美出口依赖度构成对美经贸谈判 的充足底气，或使得中国在与 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 从需求端来看，消费假期效应消退走弱，固投整体下行，出口仍有韧性。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 经济周周看：本周经济景气度略有回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 5 月 10 日）为 5.4%，与上周修订值 5.7%略有回 落，或表征经济增长景气有所放缓。我们认为，随着关税冲击，GDP 周 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its performance, with a revenue of 2.333 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit of 398 million yuan, up 22.50% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is a leading domestic producer of specialty surfactants, with a production capacity of nearly 300,000 tons per year, and is expected to see long-term growth driven by the commissioning of its new factory [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit of 398 million yuan, up 22.50% year-on-year. The average return on equity was 13.66%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.09%, and the net profit was 112 million yuan, up 24.61% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 603 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.47%, and the net profit was 102 million yuan, up 15.77% year-on-year [1][2] Growth Drivers - The company's growth is primarily driven by its focus on high-margin specialty products, including wet electronic chemicals and UV curing surfactants, which have seen significant sales increases [2] - The company has developed a systematic operational framework around its product segments, which supports sustainable development and continuous innovation [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 491 million yuan in 2025, 589 million yuan in 2026, and 697 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The new factory, with a total approved capacity of 330,000 tons per year, is anticipated to begin trial production in the first half of 2026, further enhancing the company's growth potential [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 12 日 中美贸易摩擦达峰兑现 ──中美联合声明传递的信号 核心观点 2025 年以来美国额外对华加征的整体关税水平在未来 90 天内由 145%降至 30%。展 望未来，"芬太尼关税"和"对等关税"可能一下一上，整体关税维持 30%附近。当前美 国对华关税分为 20%的芬太尼关税和 34%的"对等关税"（未来 90 天内 10%）， "芬 太尼关税"随中美谈判下行，但"对等关税"在 90 天后可能重新上行。 关税下调后，我国年内逆周期政策调节必要性下降，风险偏好助推科技股行情。 ❑ 中美会谈释放善意，2025 年以来美国对华整体关税水平由 145%降至 30%。 2025 年 5 月 12 日，中美双方公布 5 月 10 日至 11 日瑞士贸易谈判联合宣言，未 来 90 天内美国对华额外税率降至约 30%（20%芬太尼关税+10%"对等关税"）， 中国对美进口关税同步调降，并取消非关税反制措施。宣言内容主要有 3 点： 一是取消 4 月 8 日以来中美因关税反制而两次加征的额外关税，美方承诺取消 4 月 8 日以来 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in performance in 2024, with revenue of 3.693 billion yuan, down 14.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 246 million yuan, down 67.72% year-on-year [2][10] - The decline in performance is attributed to reduced orders for zeolite series environmental materials and a downturn in the pharmaceutical product segment due to changing customer demands [2][9] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to benefit from the growth of OLED materials, polyimide materials, and semiconductor manufacturing materials, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3][10] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 36.93 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.46 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 39.81% [2][12] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 9.31 billion yuan, down 17.62% year-on-year, and the net profit turned negative at -0.50 billion yuan [1][2] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, down 8.17% year-on-year, but a net profit of 0.80 billion yuan, reflecting a significant sequential increase [1][2] Segment Performance - Functional materials generated revenue of 30.19 billion yuan in 2024, down 10.30% year-on-year, while the life sciences and pharmaceutical products segment saw revenue of 6.29 billion yuan, down 28.65% year-on-year [2] - The OLED materials segment is growing steadily, with a revenue increase of 31.43% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.43 billion yuan [3] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 388 million yuan, 485 million yuan, and 605 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42, 0.52, and 0.65 yuan [10][12] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 26.57, 21.21, and 17.00, indicating a favorable valuation trend [10][12]