Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately 8.671 billion yuan, an increase of 60.07% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The copper and cobalt business showed both volume and price increases, with the company planning to achieve an annual copper production capacity of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons in the future [2] - The acquisition of Lumina Gold for 581 million Canadian dollars (approximately 3 billion yuan) added gold resources to the company's portfolio, with the Cangrejos Project expected to have a lifespan of 26 years and an annual production of about 11.5 tons of gold starting in 2028 [3] - The molybdenum and tungsten sectors performed well, with molybdenum gross profit increasing by 11% and tungsten gross profit increasing by 33% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 8.671 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in profitability [1] - The company expects revenues of 216.6 billion yuan, 223.1 billion yuan, and 231.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 17.4 billion yuan, 19.4 billion yuan, and 21.8 billion yuan for the same years [9] Business Segments - The copper and cobalt segment saw a revenue of 25.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a gross profit margin of 54%, benefiting from increased production and favorable market conditions [7] - The molybdenum and tungsten segments reported a gross profit increase of 1 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively in H1 2025, with improved recovery rates and reduced costs [4][8] Future Outlook - The company is focused on expanding its copper and cobalt production capabilities, with ongoing projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo expected to enhance operational efficiency and product quality [2] - The acquisition of gold resources is anticipated to strengthen the company's resource base and contribute to long-term growth [3]

Fiscal Performance - In August 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 12,359 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%[3] - The national general public budget expenditure in August was 18,587 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%[8] - From January to August 2025, the completion rate of the general public budget revenue was 47.8%, consistent with the same period in 2024[1] - The completion rate of general public budget expenditure was 57.3%, which is higher than the same period in 2024[1] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in August 2025 was 10,152 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[3] - Cumulative tax revenue from January to August 2025 achieved a positive growth of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth since December 2023[4] - Individual income tax grew by 8.9% from January to August 2025, reflecting improved tax collection efforts[4] Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue in August 2025 was 2,207 billion CNY, declining by 3.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend since May 2025[3] - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to high base effects from 2024 and improved management of non-tax revenue[5] Government Fund Budget Analysis - The government fund budget revenue in August 2025 recorded a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, primarily due to a drop in land transfer income[10] - Government fund budget expenditure in August 2025 increased by 19.8% year-on-year, indicating strong spending in infrastructure and public projects[10] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the implementation of new policy financial tools to support fiscal stability and economic recovery[1] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between fiscal revenue and expenditure to ensure sustainable economic growth[1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Insights - The company aims to become a comprehensive AI service provider by integrating software and hardware through the acquisition of Jintai Storage, enhancing its capabilities in AI computing and applications [4][5]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 620 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11%, while the net profit is expected to be 20.59 million yuan, down 50% from the previous year, primarily due to increased equity payment expenses [2][5]. - The company’s three main business segments are AI large models and computing, AI industry applications, and AI content security, with expected revenue contributions of 20%, 64%, and 15% respectively in 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company focuses on a full-stack AI strategy encompassing AI computing, intelligent agents, and smart applications, providing integrated solutions across various sectors including media, government, energy, and education [15][17]. - The company has developed proprietary products such as the "KAIWEN" AI large model and "KAIWEN Magic Box" edge AI integrated machine, which combine computing power and industry applications [2][19]. Acquisition of Jintai Storage - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Jintai Storage, a leading domestic storage module manufacturer, to enhance its AI integrated solutions [4][5]. - Jintai's market share in global SSD and DRAM modules ranks fourth, and the acquisition is expected to significantly boost the company's market position and capabilities [4]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s estimated market value post-acquisition is projected to be 20 billion yuan, with a reasonable market value of 6.2 billion yuan for 2025 [5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 720 million, 800 million, and 890 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 11%, and 12% respectively [5]. Market Trends - The AI large model and computing market is expected to experience explosive growth, with the general computing market in China projected to reach 140.1 EFLOPS by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.8% [42]. - The data element market in China is also expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of 196.8 billion yuan by 2025, driven by policy support and technological advancements [46]. Competitive Position - The company has established a strong foothold in the digital government sector, serving over 2,100 government clients and covering more than 80% of provincial governments [62][63]. - The company’s AI content security product "Jiumozhi" has been deployed for comprehensive risk control in large model applications, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [67].

1）25H1：营收 66.10 亿元，同比增 14.92%；归母净利润 7.40 亿元，同比增 61.19%；扣非归母净利润 7.32 亿元，同比增 63.48%。 2）25Q2：营收 35.12 亿元，同比增 43.85%，环比增 13.35%；归母净利润 3.75 亿元，同比增 456.29%，环比增 2.67%;扣非归母净利润 3.73 亿元，同比增 461.46%，环比增 3.52%。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 电池 先导智能(300450) 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 17 日 业绩拐点确立，固态电池业务打开全新增长空间 ——先导智能点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 业绩拐点确立，盈利能力与现金流大幅改善 亮点：业绩高增主要得益于前期计提风险出清，H1 信用减值损失转回 2.34 亿 元。经营性现金流表现亮眼，净流入 23.53 亿元，同比大幅转正（+231.33%）， 经营质量显著提升 ❑ 行业周期见底，主业困境反转逻辑持续兑现，海外与新兴业务打开增长空间 经历 2022-2024 年的行业调整期后，锂电设备行业自 24Q4 起迎来复苏，核心驱 动力源于下游头部电池厂开工率提升及新一轮扩产周期的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company continues to experience growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 162.63 billion yuan, representing an 18.91% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 21.10 billion yuan, which is a 39.31% increase compared to the previous year [8] - The company is actively expanding into liquid cooling and robotics, with a focus on mechatronic actuators for robotics, which is expected to open new growth avenues [2][8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 319 billion yuan, 367 billion yuan, and 428 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 15%, and 17% respectively, while net profit is expected to reach 38.8 billion yuan, 45.6 billion yuan, and 52.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25%, 18%, and 15% respectively [3][4] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from the refrigeration and air conditioning components business was 103.89 billion yuan, a 25.49% increase year-on-year, accounting for 63.88% of total revenue [8] - The automotive components business generated revenue of 58.74 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.83% year-on-year increase, with an optimized customer structure [8] - The company is focusing on the IDC liquid cooling market, which is becoming mainstream due to increasing power demands in data centers [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The domestic new energy storage action plan has been launched, with a clear installation target set at over 180GW by 2027, leading to direct project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [1] - The market mechanism for new energy storage is expected to improve marginally, with various provinces implementing capacity compensation and pricing policies to enhance investment returns [2] - Domestic energy storage bidding reached a historical high in August, with a total of 25.8GW/69.4GWh of systems and equipment contracted, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 131% in bidding scale [3] - Internationally, energy storage demand is also experiencing high growth, particularly in the U.S. and emerging markets, driven by urgent needs for flexible resources and improved economic viability [4] Summary by Sections Domestic New Energy Storage Action Plan - The action plan outlines a target of over 180GW of new energy storage installations by 2027, with an estimated investment of around 250 billion yuan [1] - By the end of 2024, the installed capacity is projected to reach 73.76GW, with an average annual installation of 35GW/142GWh expected from 2025 to 2027 [1] Market Mechanism Improvement - The action plan encourages new energy storage to participate in energy markets and auxiliary service markets, aiming to establish a reliable capacity compensation mechanism [2] - Capacity pricing policies have been introduced in several provinces, with standards set at 330 yuan/kW·year in Gansu and 165 yuan/kW·year in Ningxia starting January 2026 [2] Domestic Bidding and Demand - In August, the domestic energy storage market saw a record high in bidding, with 80GW/272GWh contracted from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 131% in scale [3] - The shift from policy-driven to market-driven demand is anticipated as profitability models become clearer [3] International Market Trends - The U.S. has extended tariff exemptions, accelerating the installation pace of energy storage projects, while Europe and other emerging markets are also witnessing robust demand [4] Recommended Focus Areas - Attention is recommended for energy storage system integrators and manufacturers, battery cell producers, thermal control manufacturers, and companies related to power intelligence [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The capacity replacement policy is a core tool for supply-side structural reform, aiming to "control total volume and optimize stock" through "reduction replacement" or "equal replacement" principles, ensuring that new advanced capacity is built while eliminating outdated capacity [3][8] - During the supply-side structural reform period (2016-2020), coal production exceeded demand, leading to tighter capacity allocation policies and the implementation of reduction replacement policies [3][21] - In the production increase and supply guarantee period (2021-2025), the policy continues to adhere to reduction replacement principles while implementing a commitment system for capacity indicators [3][23] - The capacity replacement commitment system is crucial for optimizing coal capacity management and ensuring national energy security [3][30] - The coal industry's supply and demand are expected to gradually balance, with coal prices steadily rising under the current policy framework [3][40] Summary by Sections Capacity Replacement Policy - The capacity replacement policy is essential for addressing overcapacity in industries like coal, steel, and cement, focusing on controlling new capacity while phasing out outdated capacity [8][10] - Specific policies were introduced from 2016 to 2018, mandating "reduction replacement" for the coal industry [15][16] Supply-Side Structural Reform Period (2016-2020) - The coal industry faced a situation of oversupply, prompting the implementation of tighter capacity allocation policies and reduction replacement measures [21][24] - Policies during this period included incentives for exiting coal mines to reduce capacity indicators [24][25] Production Increase and Supply Guarantee Period (2021-2025) - The commitment system allows coal mines to promise capacity increases without immediate compliance with replacement indicators, aiming to expedite the release of quality capacity [30][31] - The policy encourages the establishment of a coal capacity reserve system to enhance supply flexibility and resilience [39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others in the thermal coal sector, as well as companies in the coking coal sector like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [3][40]

Market Overview - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.21%. The STAR Market 50 increased by 1.32%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.68%. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.03% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on September 16 were comprehensive (+3.63%), machinery and equipment (+2.06%), computer (+2.06%), retail (+1.96%), and automotive (+1.82%). The worst-performing sectors included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.29%), banking (-1.15%), non-ferrous metals (-0.99%), defense and military industry (-0.5%), and food and beverage (-0.38%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on September 16 was 23,670.69 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.188 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights Consumption Strategy - In the medium to long term, the first "systematic 'slow' bull" is expected to release a wealth effect, potentially slowly boosting consumption. Insurance funds and foreign capital entering the market are favorable for consumer blue chips, with positive signals from central Huijin increasing holdings in liquor ETFs. A top-down perspective suggests that the broad consumption sector is likely to benefit [5] - The market perceives that the wealth effect of the bull market is not significant. However, it is believed that the bull market can indirectly drive the wealth effect through a specific transmission path: A-share bull market → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in other cities → recovery of real estate wealth effect. Investment opportunities in the consumption sector are worth noting, particularly in blue-chip leaders and emerging growth areas [5] - The driving factors include support from policies, funds, and sentiment, indicating that the first "systematic 'slow' bull" has quietly arrived, which may enhance the Sharpe ratio of the A-share market and indirectly boost consumption [5] Bond Market Insights - The current bond market adjustment differs significantly from historical bear markets, as the fundamentals, monetary policy, and curve shapes do not resemble past bear markets. Instead, it is more akin to an emotional adjustment under continuous risk preference shocks, anti-involution, and fund fee reduction [7][8] - There is a need to gradually break the mindset of a one-sided decline in yields and adapt to a fluctuating market pattern. However, based on the economic fundamentals and the core tone of moderate policy easing, a major bull-bear reversal has not yet been established [7][8] - The three core signals for a bull-to-bear transition include: 1. Policy bottom: Signs of marginal tightening in macro policies or expressions of tightening monetary policy 2. Fundamental bottom: Consistent and positive surprises in high-frequency and economic data 3. Sentiment bottom: A fragile and crowded trading structure triggered by the above two signals, leading to self-reinforcing sell-offs and deleveraging [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.659 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.203 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to see revenue and profit growth in the second half of 2025 due to demand recovery and channel expansion [1] - The overseas revenue for H1 2025 reached 607 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 26.6% [1] Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The company anticipates continued high growth in new products such as blood glucose monitors and AEDs. In H1 2025, revenue from the blood glucose and POCT segment grew by 20%, while the AED segment saw a 31% increase [2] - The overseas channel is expanding rapidly, with H1 2025 overseas revenue growing by 26.6%, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [3] - The company is developing an integrated health management ecosystem leveraging AI, big data, and IoT technologies, which is expected to enhance user engagement and generate additional revenue [3] Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 50.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations to maintain a high gross margin due to ongoing new product launches [4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, but the company is expected to maintain a high net profit margin due to government subsidies and cost efficiency measures [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts total revenue of 8.399 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.02%, and a net profit of 2.001 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.81% [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.00 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The definition of a bond bear market is a 40BP adjustment in the 10-year Treasury bond and an adjustment time of more than 3 months. Historically, bond bear markets were caused by fundamental improvement, monetary policy tightening, liquidity tightening leading to a bear-flattening curve, and persistent pessimism in sentiment leading to further adjustments. This round's verification differs significantly from history; it is more like an emotional adjustment under continuous risk preference shocks, anti-involution, and fund fee reduction [1]. - The bond market has experienced a 7-year bull market, with yields dropping from a high of 4.0% in early 2018 to a low of 1.6% in early 2025, a cumulative compression of 240bp. The current situation makes people wonder whether to buy on every dip or enter the bull-bear conversion thinking [2]. - The consensus resistance level for the 10Y Treasury bond this year is 1.80% (OMO + 40BP). If it cannot hold, the new market resistance level is approximately last year's central level, corresponding to 1.85% - 1.90% [3]. - Through historical review, the three core signal inflection points for a bull-to-bear transition are the policy bottom, the fundamental bottom, and the sentiment bottom [6]. - After cross-verifying the policy, fundamental, and sentiment aspects, it is believed that the inflection point for the bond market's bull-bear switch has not appeared, and the market still follows the buy-on-dip logic [48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Worries about Bull-Bear Conversion in the Market Background - The bond market has had a 7-year bull market, with yields dropping from 4.0% in early 2018 to 1.6% in early 2025, a 240bp compression. Although there was an 80bp adjustment in 2020, the long-term bull market foundation remained intact. The extreme market in 2024 shaped a strong consensus. The long bull market, strong one-sided expectations, low current levels, and large recent fluctuations have led to concerns about bull-bear conversion [2][15]. - A bond bear market is defined as a single adjustment of more than 40bp and a decline lasting over 3 months. The current market adjustment started on July 7th, lasting 2 months with a maximum amplitude of 19bp, not yet a bond bear market, but there are concerns about the continuation of this trend [15]. - In the past decade, the bond market has experienced eight significant adjustments. The adjustments in October 2016 and May 2020 had an upward amplitude of over 80bp and lasted more than 6 months, which are used as research samples for bond bear markets [16]. - The 10-year Treasury bond and OMO spread reached a new high this year. The consensus resistance level for the 10Y Treasury bond this year is 1.80% (OMO + 40BP). If it cannot hold, the new resistance level is around last year's central level, 1.85% - 1.90% (OMO + 45 - 50BP). The current 30-year and 10-year Treasury bond spread is 30bp, significantly wider than last year's average of 20.75bp [3][19]. 3.2 Historical Review: Where Were the Inflection Points of the Past Two Bull-Bear Cycles? - **2016 - 2017: The Long Bear Market under Financial Deleveraging** - The bear market was catalyzed by factors such as economic fundamental recovery, monetary policy tightening, financial deleveraging, and strengthened policy supervision. The supply-side structural reform led to a commodity bull market, PPI turning positive and rising sharply, inflation expectations, and then monetary policy tightening and "financial deleveraging" [23]. - Three signals indicated the start of a new economic cycle: PMI returning to the boom-bust line, soaring commodity prices, and PPI turning positive for the first time. Policy-wise, "financial deleveraging" dominated the regulatory tone, triggering the end of the bond bull market. The central bank raised policy rates multiple times, MPA assessment became stricter, and the interbank liquidity was under pressure, leading to a bear-flattening and then a bear-steepening curve [23][24]. - **2020: The "V-shaped" Reversal after the Pandemic Recovery** - The bear market was catalyzed by post-pandemic economic recovery, marginal tightening of monetary policy, and a shift in risk preference. The "V-shaped" economic recovery brought a "V-shaped" interest rate adjustment, with PMI achieving a V-shaped reversal and PPI rebounding from the bottom [30]. - The core of this adjustment was the policy expectation gap. The market was immersed in the central bank's loose narrative, but the policy had already shifted based on economic recovery, leading to a significant correction in expectations. The central bank began to recover excess liquidity in May, and the stock market recovered, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market, accelerating the rise in interest rates [31]. - **Three Core Signal Inflection Points for Bull-to-Bear Transition** - Policy bottom: Signs or statements of marginal tightening in macro policies, including tightening of monetary policy (central bank's open market operations reducing liquidity, tightening of the money market) and stricter regulatory policies (such as MPA assessment and financial deleveraging). This is a left-side signal that requires keen insight [6]. - Fundamental bottom: High-frequency and economic data continuously and consistently exceed expectations (especially PPI, PMI, M1, and social financing credit). Economic indicators lead, with PMI usually bottoming out and rebounding 2 - 3 months before the inflection point and PPI turning positive or rebounding from the bottom about 1 month before the inflection point. These are confirmation signals for a trend reversal to a bear market [6]. - Sentiment bottom: A fragile and crowded trading structure is triggered by the above two signals, leading to self-reinforcing selling and deleveraging in the market, sensitive market sentiment, and the fastest rise in yields [6]. 3.3 Current Verification: Does the Market Currently Have the Conditions to Turn Bearish? - **Policy Aspect**: Monetary policy remains within the framework of "precise and effective" and "moderately loose." There has been no significant shift to tightening. The possibility of policy tightening this year is low due to the weak economic recovery momentum [42]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: Given the pressure on income and employment expectations, the deep bottoming of the real estate market, the tightening of generalized urban investment finance, and the weak bank credit supply, the probability of a significant and unexpected economic boost in the short term is still low. PPI, PMI, and credit indicators show that the economic endogenous动力 needs further strengthening [43]. - **Sentiment Aspect**: The duration risk remains at a historically high level, but the leverage level is generally controllable and at a historical low. The trading congestion has significantly cooled down from the recent overheated state, but market sentiment remains sensitive due to continuous risk preference disturbances [44]. - Overall, the bond market still lacks the macroeconomic and policy basis for a significant reversal to a bear market. The current situation is more of an interval shock caused by asset linkage, high bond market congestion, and the digestion of previous over - rises, rather than a trend decline. The inflection point for the bond market's bull - bear switch has not appeared, and the market still follows the buy - on - dip logic [48].