Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - Hedge Funds have reversed 17% of year-to-date buying in China, indicating a shift in sentiment towards Chinese equities [8][9] - Indonesia has experienced significant foreign outflows, particularly from the banking sector, with approximately US$2 billion in outflows year-to-date [26][23] - Asia and Emerging Market mutual funds are continuing to reduce their overweight positions in Indonesia [28][23] Summary by Relevant Sections Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Flows - EM Asia excluding China saw FII selling of US$0.5 billion week-over-week, with Taiwan leading the outflows at US$1.1 billion [33] - Inflows were observed in Korea, which saw US$1.7 billion in FII inflows this week [33] - Year-to-date, Indonesia has seen foreign outflows of about US$2 billion, primarily driven by selling in banks [26][23] China Flows and Positioning - Hedge Funds have reversed 17% of their year-to-date risk-on buying in China, leading to marginal net selling in Chinese equities for the month-to-date period [8][9] - China's allocation in mutual funds globally rose by 60 basis points in February, ending at 6.5%, which is in the 12th percentile over the past ten years [17][22] - Southbound buying has moderated this week, with a total of US$3 billion in net buying year-to-date [8][17] Global Equity Mutual Fund Flows - Global equity mutual funds saw inflows of US$43 billion week-over-week, contrasting with US$3 billion in outflows the previous week [7] - Developed Markets (DM) funds, particularly in the US, Europe, and Japan, experienced significant inflows [7] Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) Flows - Asia markets saw US$2.4 billion in DII inflows this week, led by India with US$0.9 billion [45] - Non-Asia EM markets experienced US$0.2 billion in DII outflows, primarily from Brazil [45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Delta, EMC, and TUC, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Lotes and a Sell rating on ITEQ [3][20][31][36]. Core Insights - The global AI server rack shipment estimate has been cut by 35% for 2025 and 10% for 2026, primarily due to slower demand from AI server customers and supply constraints in production [1][2]. - Earnings estimates for key Taiwan technology component suppliers have been revised down by 1%-9% for 2025-2026, leading to an average target price decline of 12.5% [3][20][28][34]. Summary by Company Delta - Delta's target price has been cut from NT$580 to NT$550, with a 40% upside potential [3][11]. - Earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been reduced by 9%/6%/4% due to slower AI server shipments [12][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from new power rack solutions, although overall gross margins may be lower than traditional PSU solutions [10][14]. EMC - EMC's target price has been revised down from NT$865 to NT$760, implying a 30% upside [3][20]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been slightly reduced by less than 1%, while 2026/27 estimates have been cut by 2% [21][24]. - The company maintains a strong market share in M8 grade CCL but faces risks from high-end glass fiber supply constraints [19]. TUC - TUC's target price has been cut from NT$330 to NT$290, with a 65% upside potential [3][20]. - Earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been reduced by 2% across the board, reflecting less favorable AI server shipment revenue [28][30]. - The company is expected to remain resilient due to its focus on 800G switch projects and ASIC AI servers [19]. ITEQ - ITEQ's target price has been revised down from NT$65 to NT$58, indicating a 21% downside [3][36]. - Earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been cut by 2%/4%/3% due to less favorable AI server revenue contributions [34][36]. - The company is expected to face challenges due to a less favorable product mix impacting gross margins [34].

Investment Rating - The report has reduced the Brent price forecast and expected trading range by $5 to $65-80/bbl [2][7] Core Insights - The medium-term risks to the price forecast are skewed to the downside due to rising recession risks and elevated spare capacity [2][8] - Non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to decrease significantly with lower Brent prices, providing a softer price floor compared to OPEC+ cuts [2][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of producer hedging strategies as prices recover in the short term [52] Summary by Sections Price Forecast and Market Dynamics - The Brent price forecast was adjusted downwards following a downgrade in the US GDP growth forecast and OPEC+ production increases [2][7] - Non-OPEC+ production growth is sensitive to price changes, with a decrease of 0.3mb/d for each $10/bbl price drop when Brent is above $70/bbl [2][42] Non-OPEC+ Supply Response - Non-OPEC+ production growth is projected to fall from 1.05mb/d to 0.6mb/d at $60/bbl Brent prices, and to -0.1mb/d at $50/bbl [2][46] - The supply response is non-linear, with significant production shut-ins possible as prices approach well-head variable costs [2][39] Price Sensitivity and Decline Rates - The report indicates that lower oil prices lead to higher decline rates in existing fields, with a 0.5% increase in decline rates for a $10/bbl price drop [14][17] - The non-OPEC+ ex-US supply response is characterized by a steep cost curve, becoming more elastic as prices approach well-head variable costs [31][39] Hedging Recommendations - The report recommends producer three-way hedges to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and to capitalize on potential price recoveries [52]

Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for various developers, with specific recommendations such as "Sell" for China Vanke and "Buy" for COLI and CR Land [65][66]. Core Insights - The primary sales in the property market have shown improvement, with a 19% week-over-week increase and a 15% year-over-year increase, particularly in tier-2 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region [7][25]. - Secondary transactions have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 2% week-over-week but a 13% year-over-year increase, indicating a divergence in price expectations between agents and homeowners [42]. - The easing measures have led to a significant increase in primary and secondary sales volumes, with primary sales up 32% week-over-week and 52% above pre-easing levels [3][11]. Summary by Sections Inventory and Sales - Guangzhou has initiated an affordable housing program, launching pilot projects that convert completed inventory into saleable units, totaling over 1,300 units [1]. - The overall inventory balance has decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 1.5% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.3 [52][55]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold has increased by 7% year-over-year, although it remains down 26% and 15% compared to 2023 and 2022 levels, respectively [10][39]. - The report indicates that top-100 developers' presales likely improved by 8% year-over-year in March, compared to a 2% increase in February [10]. Completions and New Starts - The monthly GSPC tracker suggests a teen-level year-over-year decline in completions for March 2025, with expectations of a 25% year-over-year decline in new starts [57][66]. - Home appliance sales are expected to show improvement based on secondary sales trends in approximately 20 cities [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that offshore developers are trading at an average 31% discount to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at a 21% discount [66].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Innolight is "Buy" with a 12-month price target (TP) of Rmb170, indicating an upside potential of 65.2% from the current price of Rmb102.88 [17] - The investment rating for TFC Optical is "Neutral" with a 12-month price target (TP) of Rmb108, indicating an upside potential of 21.6% from the current price of Rmb88.84 [21] Core Insights - The report revises the 1.6T volume estimates for Innolight and TFC Optical downward due to a reduction in GS AI server estimates, leading to an 8% cut in Innolight's 2026E net profit and a 10% cut in TFC Optical's 2025E estimates [1][2][8] - Innolight is positioned as a leading supplier in the optical transceiver market, particularly benefiting from the expansion of AI and data centers, with a focus on improving gross profit margins and return on invested capital (ROIC) through a faster product upgrade cycle [14][18] - TFC Optical is recognized as a key component supplier for optical transceiver manufacturers, capturing 75% of the bill of materials (BOM) for optical transceivers, although its valuation reflects a premium due to strong earnings per share (EPS) outlook [18] Summary by Relevant Sections Innolight Estimates - Revenue estimates for Innolight are revised to Rmb36,385 million for 2026E, down from Rmb39,241 million, reflecting a 7% decrease [6] - Net income estimates for Innolight are adjusted to Rmb9,536 million for 2026E, also reflecting an 8% decrease [6] TFC Optical Estimates - Revenue estimates for TFC Optical are revised to Rmb6,195 million for 2026E, down from Rmb6,290 million, indicating a 1.5% decrease [9] - Net income estimates for TFC Optical are adjusted to Rmb2,384 million for 2026E, reflecting a 1.2% decrease [9] Market Demand Projections - The demand for 1.6T transceivers is projected to reach 1.9 million units in 2025, 6.9 million units in 2026, and 13.6 million units in 2027 as customers transition to higher bandwidth solutions [12]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Quanta from Buy to Neutral with a new 12-month target price of NT$293, reflecting a 7% to 21% reduction in target prices for Taiwan ODM/cooling supply chain companies [1]. Core Insights - The forecast for rack-level AI server volumes has been revised down to 19k and 57k for 2025 and 2026, respectively, from previous estimates of 31k and 66k, due to product transitions and demand uncertainties [1]. - The demand for high-power AI servers is expected to remain stable, with unit estimates revised to 423k for both 2025 and 2026, indicating that some customers prefer baseboard solutions for design flexibility [2]. - The overall outlook for AI inferencing and general servers remains positive, driven by AI technology applications and a recovery in the replacement cycle [2]. Server Market Outlook - The global server market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to reach US$231 billion, US$277 billion, and US$376 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 20%, and 36% [10]. - AI training server revenues are anticipated to grow at 30% and 63% year-on-year, reaching US$160 billion and US$260 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [11][30]. - General server volumes are expected to increase by 6% and 4% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, supported by a recovery in replacement cycles and new CPU platform introductions [15]. Customer Spending Insights - Leading US cloud service providers are forecasted to increase their capital expenditure budgets by 41% and 15% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][20]. - Chinese cloud platforms are expected to raise their capital expenditure by 26% in 2025, stabilizing to a 4% increase in 2026 [3][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on Asian equities with a target of MXAPJ 640, indicating a potential upside of 9% [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes key themes such as AI beneficiaries, domestic exposure, defense spending, shareholder yield, and positive earnings revisions as focal points for investment [1][48]. - The report highlights the potential for better relative performance of Asian equities amid US economic concerns and tariff uncertainties [11][13]. Summary by Sections Tariffs - The upcoming April deadline for potential new tariffs is viewed as a critical risk window, with significant implications for Asian markets, particularly China and India [5][6]. - A 10% US universal tariff could lead to a 6-7% drop in the MXAPJ index, with Taiwan and Korea being the most affected [9][10]. US Economic Concerns - The report notes a reduction in the US GDP growth forecast to 1.7% for 2025, which may lead to a shift in investor focus towards Asian markets [11][12]. - The relative performance of cyclical stocks in Asia is improving compared to US defensives, indicating a potential shift in investment dynamics [13][14]. AI Sector - Chinese AI software-related stocks are outperforming regional hardware-related stocks, reflecting a shift in the investment narrative towards software applications [21][22]. China Outlook - The near-term outlook for China suggests a possible correction after a significant rally, with a target for the MXCN index set at 85, based on a 12x target P/E and 9% EPS growth for 2025 [27][28]. - Medium-term prospects for China are improving, supported by policy efforts to stabilize the economy and a shift towards technology and consumption [31][33]. Japan - Japan's investment case remains positive with a target of Topix 3100, despite concerns over yen strength impacting earnings [38][40]. India - The report suggests caution in re-engaging with India due to below-consensus GDP growth forecasts and ongoing EPS downgrades, although long-term prospects remain compelling [42][43]. Korea and Taiwan - Focus on alpha opportunities in Korea and Taiwan, particularly in high dividend stocks and potential rebounds in KOSDAQ performance [46][47]. Alpha Ideas - The report identifies several alpha themes, including AI applications, tariff-resilient stocks, defense spending, and quality stocks with strong balance sheets [50][51].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the MSCI China index with a target price of 85, suggesting a potential upside of 11% [35] - The CSI300 index has a target price of 4,700, indicating a potential upside of 20% [35] Core Insights - The State Council has introduced measures to boost consumption, which may positively impact economic activity [1] - Recent activity data for January-February showed industrial production growth of 5.9%, fixed asset investment growth of 4.1%, and retail sales growth of 4.0%, all year-on-year [1] - Earnings for 4Q24 have shown a significant increase, with 33% of the China/MXCN universe reporting a 25% year-on-year rise in earnings [11] - The report highlights that the offshore tech sector has seen EPS upgrades due to AI optimism, while earnings surprises have been less favorable historically [14] Summary by Sections Performance - Utilities and Value sectors outperformed, while Real Estate and Growth sectors lagged [8] - MXCN/CSI300 forward P/E ratios are 11.5x and 13.0x respectively, with expected EPS growth of 8% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 for MXCN [9] Flows - Southbound flows reached US$51 billion year-to-date, indicating strong foreign interest in Chinese equities [3] Policies and News - The State Council has unveiled a new food safety regulatory framework across the full supply chain, which may impact related sectors positively [4] Earnings and Valuations - The report notes that the consensus EPS growth estimates for 2025/26 are 8%/14% for MXCN and 16%/12% for CSI300, with significant upward revisions in Information Technology and Real Estate sectors [9][37] Macro Indicators - The report provides macroeconomic forecasts, projecting China's real GDP growth at 5.0% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, with industrial production growth expected to be 5.8% in 2024 [36][38]

21 March 2025 | 6:14PM HKT China Matters Upside Risks to Our Growth Forecast (Shan) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@g ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [1]. Core Insights - The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing heightened policy uncertainty due to the second Trump administration's macro policy reorientation, including increased tariffs and potential government shutdowns [1] - The average US tariff rate is expected to exceed 10%, the highest in a century, impacting smaller manufactured goods exporters in the region [1] - Despite tariff threats, regional foreign exchange rates have remained relatively stable since the end of 2024, with the renminbi playing a crucial stabilizing role [1] Summary by Sections US Macro Policy - The second Trump administration has introduced new tariffs on China, increasing the average US tariff rate significantly [1] - Trade policy uncertainty is at an all-time high, affecting investor sentiment across the Asia-Pacific region [1] China Macro Policy - China's macro policy remains steady with GDP growth targeted at "around 5%" and CPI inflation at "around 2%" [7] - Regulatory pressures on the private sector have eased, and there is a focus on enhancing manufacturing competitiveness and boosting consumption [7] South Korea Economic Activity - South Korea faces weak economic activity and political uncertainty, with a forecasted real GDP growth of just 1.8% for the year [15] - High household debt and tight fiscal policy are contributing to prolonged domestic demand weakness [15] Indonesia Macro Policy - Indonesia's government has announced various policy initiatives aimed at growth, including a revised fiscal deficit expectation of 2.9% of GDP [16] - The central bank is expected to continue easing monetary policy to support domestic liquidity [16] India Economic Outlook - India's growth has slowed to 6.2% year-on-year, with a conservative growth forecast of 6.4% for 2025 due to policy tightness [20] - The focus has shifted to micro-level policies and state-level implementation rather than significant national reforms [20] Japan Economic Conditions - Japan is experiencing reflation with expected wage growth of 3.0% in 2025, but uncertainty remains regarding the Bank of Japan's future policy path [24] - The upcoming Upper House election may influence the timing of future rate hikes [24] Australia Economic Outlook - Australia is preparing for a national election, with limited immediate macroeconomic implications expected [27] - GDP growth has shown modest recovery, and further rate cuts by the RBA are anticipated [27]