Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to CFME, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance in the near term [1][9][16]. Core Insights - CFME is expected to see a revenue growth of 22% year-over-year and 27% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reaching Rmb308 million, driven by an upgrade in product mix towards mid-to-high-end PCB equipment [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding into global markets, including plans for a new subsidiary and plant in Thailand, which aims to capitalize on the growing PCB demand influenced by AI trends and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4]. - The earnings revision reflects an upward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of Rmb1,761 million in 2025, Rmb2,242 million in 2026, and Rmb2,754 million in 2027, representing increases of 9%, 12%, and 21% respectively [3][4]. Financial Projections - The report projects gross profit margins to remain strong, with gross margins of 40.0% in 2025, 39.6% in 2026, and 38.7% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][4]. - Net income is expected to rise to Rmb328 million in 2025, Rmb400 million in 2026, and Rmb460 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 10%, 16%, and 23% respectively [3][4]. - The operating income is forecasted to increase to Rmb381 million in 2025, Rmb469 million in 2026, and Rmb527 million in 2027, with corresponding operating margins of 21.7%, 20.9%, and 19.1% [3][4]. Valuation - The target price for CFME is set at Rmb66.7, based on a discounted P/E methodology using a 21x P/E on the 2027E EPS, discounted back to 2026E at a 10% cost of equity [9][14][16]. - The report indicates a downside potential of 8% from the current price of Rmb72.50, reinforcing the "Sell" rating [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Chagee Holdings Ltd, with an industry view of "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - Chagee's unit GMV in China showed sequential improvement in May compared to April, driven by healthy new SKU sales and increasing delivery orders, although food aggregator subsidies have temporarily disrupted product pricing [2] - Management emphasized two strategic focuses: sustainable growth in China to enhance the longevity of the 'Chagee' brand and overseas expansion [7] - The company aims to maintain stable pricing while closely monitoring the impact of food aggregator subsidies on effective prices [7] Summary by Sections Store Units - Initial trial results indicate that approximately 60-70% of the cup mix at Chagee Modern Tea consists of pure tea products [3] Growth Targets - Chagee targets around 10,000 stores in China over the long run, with approximately 1,000 net unit additions per year over the next 2-3 years, focusing on high-tier cities and prime locations [8] Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the projected revenue is RMB 15,115 million, with an EBITDA of RMB 3,415 million and an EPS of RMB 15.17 [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for XDLK (688582.SS) as it is categorized as "Not Covered" [1]. Core Insights - XDLK has experienced significant revenue growth of 292% year-over-year in Q1 2025, attributed to new MEMS gyroscope orders, with management expressing optimism about future visibility due to increasing client adoption [1][8]. - The company is expanding its MEMS accelerometer product from single chip single axis to dual/triple axis configurations to enhance product integrity and meet client demands [1][8]. - XDLK is targeting new markets such as autonomous driving, eVTOL, and robotics, in addition to its existing industrial and energy sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Company Profile - XDLK is a local supplier of MEMS IMU, offering products that include a MEMS chipset and an ASIC chipset for high-accuracy navigation, monitoring, and stabilization at relatively low costs [3]. Client Penetration and Product Upgrade - The company has secured new MEMS gyroscope orders valued at RMB 270 million, indicating a growing adoption of its products by clients [5]. - XDLK's Q1 2025 revenue reached RMB 87 million, with net income turning positive, driven by new orders and a positive outlook on order visibility [8]. Technology Advantages - XDLK's MEMS IMU products face high barriers to entry, with a client partnership development cycle of 6-12 months, emphasizing the importance of high accuracy, integrity, small size, adaptability, and low cost in client decision-making [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but discusses various price scenarios and geopolitical risks that could impact investment decisions [4]. Core Insights - The Brent oil price closed at $66.9 per barrel on June 10, with expectations of a decline to around $60 per barrel in Q4 if no supply disruptions occur [2][4]. - A geopolitical risk premium of approximately $10 per barrel is estimated, with potential spikes in Brent prices above $90 under lower supply scenarios from Iran [4]. - Oil exports from Iran remain uninterrupted, while a significant decline of 45% (or 3.3 million barrels per day) in oil flows through the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait is projected by 2025 compared to 2023 [4][16]. - The probability of US military action against Iran is estimated at 65% by July, while the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025 stands at 50% [21][22]. - Global spare capacity is estimated to be around 4-5% of global demand, which could serve as a buffer against disruptions from Iran [4][32]. Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights a close link between oil prices and the probability of US military action against Iran, indicating that market sentiment is currently leaning towards higher prices in the short term [6][19]. - The futures curve and implied volatility suggest that oil markets anticipate much higher prices in the coming months, while long-term outlooks remain stable [4][26][29]. Oil Flows and Shipping Costs - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain uninterrupted, but the report notes vulnerabilities in shipping routes due to potential attacks from Iran-controlled Houthis [4][13]. - Increased risks have led to a rise in oil shipping costs, particularly for Middle Eastern routes [4][44]. Refined Product Prices - Diesel margins in Europe have increased due to downside risks to exports from the Middle East, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions on refined product pricing [4][43].

18 June 2025 | 8:32PM EDT US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Taking Higher Tariffs on Board, Cautiously (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis n FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth fore ...

15 June 2025 | 1:53PM HKT Potential opportunities on other technology platforms: Referring to technology platform-based collaborations between China pharma / biotech and MNCs (see summary in Exhibit 1), the upfront payment of US$110mn for the announced AZ/CSPC collaboration is consistent with the historical range of US$10mn to below US$200mn, while the total deal size of US$5.3bn was the highest since 2023. With the current collaboration announced to date, we see growing recognition from MNCs for CSPC's tec ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current market has approximately $15 billion of gamma, with a high concentration on strikes slightly below the current market level, indicating a potential shift post month-end due to rolling of large quarterly positions and re-striking of overwriting products [1][2] - The upcoming options expiration on June 20 is projected to be the largest June expiration on record, with over $5.9 trillion of notional options exposure, including $4.0 trillion of SPX options and $925 billion of single stock options [4][10] - The liquidity in the S&P E-mini market is moderate, with a top-of-book depth of $7.1 million, slightly below the year-to-date average [7] - Pension funds are expected to sell approximately $20 billion of US equities at quarter-end, but this may be offset by an estimated $10 billion of buying if the SPX trades above 5905 on the last day of the month [9][10] - A significant number of companies (approximately 40%) are currently in a blackout period for buybacks, which is expected to end around July 25 [12] - Systematic strategies currently hold $126 billion in US equities, with a projected small sell-off of $310 million in a flat market scenario, but potential buying demand of $790 million over the next week [14][15] - Historically, the second half of June has shown positive returns for the S&P, averaging 45 basis points from June 17 to July 1 [17] - The AI-led rally has resulted in a divergence in stock performance, with AI winners reaching new highs while companies perceived to be at risk from AI have declined [19] - There is increased demand for tail options, particularly in the QQQ market, indicating a preference for hedging strategies amid market volatility [21][22] - The vega of the VIX ETN has increased significantly, with the UVIX ETF's assets under management growing more than fivefold in recent months, highlighting the product's role in the VIX futures market [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The market is currently facing multiple challenges, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and a flat S&P 500 index despite these pressures [2][3] - There is a notable correlation between long-duration bonds and equity markets, indicating investor concerns about US exposure and a desire to diversify away from US assets [3] - The AI sector is experiencing renewed interest, with significant demand and strategic deals indicating a robust growth trajectory [24][25] - Europe is being viewed as an emerging opportunity for investment, with major firms planning substantial investments due to favorable conditions [38][33] Market Dynamics - Increased volatility in the market is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties and economic indicators showing signs of retail and cyclical slowdowns [4][6] - Credit markets remain stable despite various risks, with a preference for high-quality assets indicating a cautious risk-on sentiment [21][22] - The energy sector is under scrutiny due to potential shortages exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and domestic issues, particularly in Europe [26] Investment Flows - There has been a consistent net buying trend across global markets, particularly in North America and Asia, with emerging markets also seeing renewed demand [7][8] - The report highlights a shift in capital flows from the US to other regions, although there is hesitance regarding investments in China [19] Economic Outlook - The US deficit and bond market are facing scrutiny, with concerns about how the US will manage its debt and economic growth moving forward [20] - The cyclical nature of investment products is emphasized, with a resurgence in secondary funds indicating a shift in investor priorities towards liquidity and cash returns [42]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the A-share market, suggesting a barbell strategy with micro-cap and bank stocks performing steadily [6][10]. Core Insights - The A-share market has remained flat amid Middle East tensions, supported by the Lujiazui Forum, while H-shares lagged due to increased risk-off sentiment [1]. - Biotech and New Consumption sectors in Hong Kong have seen a sharp pullback after significant gains of 30-50% YTD, with the HS Biotech Index dropping over 9% in the past five days [2][3]. - The Lujiazui Forum has announced measures to support Shanghai as a global financial center, including the reopening of IPOs for unprofitable tech firms under new standards [10][11]. Summary by Sections A-share Market - The A-share market is experiencing a barbell strategy with micro-cap and bank stocks outperforming, while foreign participation remains light [6]. - Limited liquidity is driving small-cap beta, while deflationary pressures keep dividend plays attractive [7][8]. Hong Kong Market - The biotech and new consumption sectors have both declined after strong rallies, with notable sell-offs in stocks like CSPC and Innovent [2][3]. - The new consumption sector has seen significant drops in stocks such as PopMart and Laopu, attributed to profit-taking rather than clear negative catalysts [4]. Lujiazui Forum Insights - The forum emphasized credibility and global financial connections, with discussions on reopening IPOs for unprofitable tech firms and expanding QFII investment scope [10][12]. - AI and semiconductor companies are likely to be prioritized for new listings, with stocks in the growth tier marked with a "U" label to indicate investment risk [11]. Macro Economic Context - Retail sales showed strong performance in May, but sustainability is questioned due to potential payback effects in June [13]. - Property prices in 70 cities have continued to decline, with secondary market data indicating a drop of 5-15% over the past year [14]. Investor Behavior - Overall A-share flows indicate a selling trend, with long-only and hedge funds both showing net selling behavior despite the geopolitical tensions [18]. - Specific sectors like AI infrastructure are seeing renewed interest, with notable buying in companies like Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the China Internet sector, particularly focusing on AI applications and their monetization potential. Core Insights - The report highlights the steady engagement trends in AI applications, with significant growth in daily token usage and monetization strategies across various platforms. It emphasizes the competitive pricing of AI models and the increasing adoption of AI functionalities in existing applications. Summary by Sections AI Adoption and Engagement - Key investor focuses include rising use cases for AI across both consumer (to-C) and business (to-B) applications, with notable engagement from platforms like DeepSeek and Bytedance's Doubao, which reported a daily token usage of 16.4 trillion in May 2025, a 29% month-over-month increase [1] - The overall top 400 mobile apps saw an 8% year-over-year increase in total time spent in May 2025, with Douyin's main app engagement up 23% year-over-year [1][6] Monetization Strategies - The report notes steady progress in AI monetization, particularly with Kuaishou's Kling achieving an Annualized Revenue Run Rate (ARR) surpassing US$100 million, and other companies also reporting scalable ARR for their AI products [1][6] - Subscription-based productivity tools and advertising-based AI search engines are highlighted as key monetization avenues, with Alibaba's Quark and Baidu's AI chatbots expected to leverage adtech for improved transaction capabilities [1] Competitive Pricing and Model Developments - The report discusses the competitive pricing landscape, with Kuaishou's Kling 2.1 version offering a significant cost reduction of 60-80% compared to its predecessor, and ByteDance's Seedance 1.0 outperforming Google's video generation model [1][6] - The report also mentions the advancements in multi-modal capabilities and the launch of various AI models by leading companies, indicating a strong competitive environment in the AI sector [1][6] Engagement Trends Across Verticals - Engagement in eCommerce platforms accelerated to 10% year-over-year in May, with JD's time spent increasing by 87% year-over-year, driven by food delivery initiatives [1] - Social engagement remained stable with a 6% year-over-year increase, while gaming engagement picked up to 6% year-over-year in May [1][6] Stock Preferences and Recommendations - The report recommends a dual-pronged approach to stock picking, emphasizing defensive sub-sectors and domestic policy beneficiaries with discounted valuations. Preferred stocks include Tencent in gaming, JD in eCommerce, and Kuaishou for AI application monetization [1][6]