Investment Ratings - Petrobras: Buy with a 12-month price target of BRL 38.80 [18] - Brava Energia: Sell with a 12-month price target of BRL 15.80 [19] - PetroReconcavo: Neutral with a 12-month price target of BRL 16.50 [20] - Ultrapar: Buy with a 12-month price target of BRL 22.40 [21] - Cosan: Neutral with a 12-month price target of BRL 9.10 [22] - Vibra Energia: Neutral with a 12-month price target of BRL 20.30 [23] Core Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook for oil prices, with expectations of average Brent oil prices at USD 56/bbl in 2026, influenced by solid supply growth outside the US shale [14] - Companies in the oil and gas sector are adjusting their capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans in response to lower oil prices, with Brava already reducing its investment plan for 2025 [2][12] - The fuel distribution segment is facing challenges from inventory losses due to recent price reductions by Petrobras, which may lead to lower margins in the short term [3][8] Summary by Company Petrobras - CAPEX remains resilient with 98% of upstream investments breakeven at or below USD 45/bbl, indicating no major adjustments in the short term [7] - The company is cautious about shareholder remuneration, recognizing potential increases in indebtedness due to lower oil prices [7] - Petrobras aims to avoid passing global market volatility to domestic fuel prices while aligning with international trends [7] Brava Energia - The company plans to deploy USD 450 million in CAPEX for 2025, a reduction from previous plans, primarily affecting onshore investments [12] - Brava expects stable production in the upcoming years, with potential growth in offshore output by 2026 [12] - The decision to cancel the divestment of onshore assets reflects a strategy to maintain a diversified portfolio [12] Vibra Energia - EBITDA in 2Q will be impacted by inventory losses, with a focus on reducing indebtedness through a 40% dividend payout policy [8] - Recent market share data indicates a slight increase in diesel market share, attributed to sales to TRR and unbranded gas stations [8] - The company does not foresee significant impacts from sanctions on Russian diesel imports [8] Ultrapar - The fuel distribution business is experiencing an oversupply effect, but demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year [9] - Ultrapar is positioning Ultragaz for potential investments in renewables, while managing profitability under competitive pressures [9] - The company anticipates leverage to remain within guidance levels despite recent acquisitions [9] PetroReconcavo - The company is maintaining flexibility in capital allocation, with expectations of double-digit production growth this year [12] - It recognizes the need for caution in the current oil price environment but does not plan significant CAPEX adjustments [12] Cosan - Committed to asset sales to improve its interest coverage ratio, with potential working capital pressures from recent IOF changes [13] - Raizen, one of Cosan's investees, is highlighted as being particularly exposed to these changes [13]

28 May 2025 | 6:02AM CEST Powering Up Europe Domestic, defensive and growing; a new era for Utilities Domestic, defensive and growing. Utilities operate predominantly domestic businesses with a large share of regulated or contracted profits (i.e., defensive). We expect the industry to positively surprise on organic growth, thanks to: (1) the inflection in power demand; (2) a pivot in capital allocation; and (3) the secular need to modernize the entire power system. In this context, we believe Utilities may ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WEB Travel Group (WEB.AX) with a 12-month target price of A$7.10, representing a potential upside of 35% from the current price of A$5.26 [1][3]. Core Insights - WEB's total transaction value (TTV) reached A$4.9 billion for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22%. Revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, with EBITDA reported at A$121 million [1][2]. - Management provided guidance for FY26 EBITDA margin between 44% and 47%, down from a previous estimate of 48%, due to investments in hotel contracting teams in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions. Despite this, confidence in a 6.5% revenue/TTV margin for the medium term remains [3][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the first eight weeks of FY26, with TTV and order volume growing by 28% and 29% respectively, driven by a 36% increase in the Americas [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25, FY26, FY27, and FY28 are A$328.4 million, A$386.0 million, A$450.3 million, and A$507.2 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% expected [4][11]. - EBITDA estimates for the same periods are A$120.6 million, A$153.6 million, A$191.2 million, and A$217.5 million, indicating a growth trajectory [4][11]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS of A$0.20 for FY25, increasing to A$0.44 by FY28, reflecting a strong growth outlook [4][11]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation approach remains unchanged, utilizing an EV/EBITDA multiple adjusted to FY27 EBITDA, with a revised multiple of 12x based on comparable companies [12][15]. - The target price of A$7.10 is derived from a combination of fundamental valuation (85%) and theoretical M&A valuation (15%) [15][12].

分组1 - Investment Rating: Buy for Xiaomi, PDD, Kuaishou, Link REIT, Hesai, and Telstra [1][3][5][9] - Xiaomi's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations with revenue growth of +47% year-over-year to Rmb111 billion and adjusted net profit growth of +65% year-over-year to Rmb10.7 billion [1] - PDD's 1Q25 profit declined significantly due to increased user and merchant investments, leading to a negative share price reaction despite a +15% growth in online marketing revenue [3] - Kuaishou maintained its FY25 guidance and showed sequential improvement in advertising and eCommerce, indicating strong growth momentum [5] - Hesai's 1Q25 results showed a net profit beat driven by higher gross margins and lower operating expenses, with a revised target price increase to US$23.30 [5][9] 分组2 - Key segments for Xiaomi include AIoT and EV, which continue to outperform expectations [1] - PDD's domestic GMV profit margin is expected to stabilize at 2.0% to 2.2% for FY25E to FY27E, down from previous estimates [3] - Kuaishou's strong position in AI applications and better-than-industry ad growth are potential drivers for stock re-rating [5] - Telstra's strategy focuses on consistent earnings growth and maximizing shareholder returns, with a financial capacity exceeding A$20 billion through FY30 [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but discusses various factors influencing oil prices and production levels, indicating a cautious outlook based on current supply and demand dynamics. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have decreased week-on-week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, with expectations of a final production increase of 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in July due to new ex-shale projects entering the market and economic growth deceleration [1] - Geopolitical developments, including US-Iran nuclear talks and sanctions on Russia, have had mixed effects on oil prices, with cautious optimism surrounding negotiations offsetting earlier concerns [2] - Brazil's new FPSO Alexandre de Gusmão began production ahead of schedule, contributing to increased supply, while Norway's production also exceeded expectations [3] - Trackable net supply has increased by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by higher production from Russia and lower demand from China [4] - Global oil demand remains resilient, with Saudi domestic oil demand increasing by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year in April [6] Supply Dynamics - Kazakhstan and Iraq show a decrease in overproduction, but overall compliance improvements among OPEC+ members have been moderate [6] - The US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands strong at 11.2 mb/d, while Canada’s liquids production nowcast is at 5.8 mb/d, slightly below expectations [14][20] - Russia's liquids production nowcast increased to 10.6 mb/d, while Iran's crude production remains stable at 3.5 mb/d [21] Demand Trends - China's oil demand nowcast has edged down by 0.1 mb/d to 16.7 mb/d, reflecting product stock builds [31] - OECD Europe oil demand has increased by 0.1 mb/d to 13.3 mb/d week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in demand [32] Inventory Levels - OECD commercial stocks have built up by 7 million barrels (mb) to 2,782 mb, which is 7 mb above the end-of-May forecast [40] - Global commercial stocks have increased by 18 mb, indicating a growing supply in the market [40] Price Dynamics - The Brent 1M/36M timespread gap with fair value has narrowed to -8 percentage points (pp), suggesting a normalization in pricing [51] - Average crude basis has increased by 1.1%, while the average crude prompt timespread remained flat [60] Geopolitical and Sanctioned Supply - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Russia and developments in Venezuela, which could impact supply dynamics [2][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIFI.BO) since June 22, 2022, with a target price of Rs880.00, indicating a potential upside of 1.0% from the current price of Rs871.05 [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a 4Q APE of Rs189 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year decline and a 4% miss against Goldman Sachs estimates. The VNB for the quarter was Rs35.3 billion, down 3% year-over-year, aligning with estimates, resulting in a VNB margin of 18.7%, which is an improvement of 77 basis points compared to estimates [1][12]. - The decline in topline was primarily due to a 12% year-over-year drop in the Individual Par business and a 16% decline in Group business, attributed to the impact of new product introductions [1][12]. - Margins improved by 154 basis points year-over-year, driven by a better product mix, including a focus on Non-par products and higher ticket size Par products, which offset the negative impacts from lower risk-free rates and new surrender payouts [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report highlights that LIC generated an EVOP of Rs826 billion, with an Operating RoEV of 11.4%, supported by higher unwind and positive operating assumption changes. Notably, 50% of the economic variance was due to a fall in risk-free rates [2]. - The first-year commission rates decreased by 110 basis points in Q4, a significant reduction compared to the 250 basis points decline observed in Q3, indicating a recalibration of rates to maintain total payouts [2]. Product and Distribution Strategy - LIC has relaunched 13 new products in Q4, adding to the 38 launched in Q3, with a focus on selectively increasing premiums and adjusting ticket sizes and entry ages for key products [2]. - The Par segment continues to experience a decline, with a 12% year-over-year drop, as the agency adjusts to new products and lower commission payouts, although product margins have improved [2]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates a continued focus on Non-par products, which is expected to lead to margin improvements in the medium term [1][2]. - The report indicates that margin drivers will include persistency and product mix adjustments moving forward [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Motor Oil (MORr.AT) with a 12-month price target of €25.00, reflecting a potential upside of 6.1% from the current price of €23.56 [1][16]. Core Insights - Motor Oil reported an adjusted EBITDA of €216 million for 1Q25, which is 6% above the consensus estimate of €204 million, driven by strong marketing results, while adjusted net income was €96 million, slightly below the consensus of €99 million [1][17]. - The refining production volumes were strong at 2,695 kt, exceeding expectations, and total sales volumes were 2,920 kt, which was slightly below expectations [2][22]. - The adjusted refining margin for 1Q25 was reported at US$65/ton, slightly above the expected US$60/ton, leading to an adjusted EBITDA of €152 million for the Refining division [2][22]. - The company managed to maintain a total utilization rate of 90% of its refinery's nominal capacity, exceeding the guidance of 65-80% post-fire [2][22]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for 1Q25 was reported at €2,679 million, with operating expenses of €2,463 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of €216 million [21]. - The company experienced a negative free cash flow (FCF) of -€260 million in 1Q25, attributed to high capital expenditures and operating cash flow challenges [19][23]. - For FY25, Motor Oil revised its capex guidance down to €500 million from €560 million, primarily due to the deferral of spending on renewable projects [15][27]. Future Outlook - The adjusted refining margin is expected to increase to $82/ton in 2Q25, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [14][26]. - The company anticipates receiving approximately €215 million in insurance compensation related to the fire incident, which is expected to support cash flow in the upcoming quarters [15][27]. - Motor Oil's strategic plan includes a multi-pillar decarbonization strategy targeting 2 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, with significant investments planned in renewable power and electric mobility [36][37].

28 May 2025 | 9:26AM EDT Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RCKT): Clinical Hold on Ph. 2 DD Trial Puts Largest Late-Stage Oppy At Risk; Downgrade to Sell w/ $2 PT On Tuesday (5/27), RCKT announced that the FDA placed a clinical hold on its pivotal Ph. 2 Danon disease (DD) trial. The hold was issued on 5/23 after a patient treated in early May experienced capillary leak syndrome that emerged ~1 week after RP-A501 dosing. Although there were some early signs the condition was beginning to improve, the patient subs ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a revised target price of HK$63 per share [1][18][41] Core Insights - Kuaishou reported in-line results for 1Q25 and maintained its FY25 guidance on advertising, eCommerce, and profitability, indicating a positive growth momentum for the remainder of the year [1][18] - The advertising momentum is expected to improve, with management targeting a 12% year-on-year growth in 2Q25 and further acceleration in the second half of the year [2][32] - The revenue outlook for Kling AI has been raised significantly, reflecting a faster expansion of paying users and a competitive position in the global market [4][20] Summary by Sections Advertising - Management anticipates a 12% year-on-year growth in advertising for 2Q25, with expectations for high-teens growth in 2H25 driven by contributions from mini-games and local services [32] - Kuaishou's advertising revenue is projected to reach Rmb 81,351 million in 2025, reflecting a 12% growth from the previous year [33] eCommerce - Kuaishou targets a 13-15% year-on-year GMV growth, supported by stable livestreaming and eCommerce contributions [3] - The overall take rate for eCommerce is expected to remain stable at around 4% for 2025, with plans to improve monetization of pan-shelf based eCommerce traffic in the second half of the year [35][36] Kling AI - The revenue outlook for Kling AI has been raised to US$100 million for FY25, driven by an increase in paying users and enhanced marketing efforts [4][20] - Kling AI is positioned competitively against global peers, with expectations for rapid revenue growth in the coming quarters [27][28] Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been fine-tuned upwards by 0.7% to 1.1%, reflecting better performance in livestreaming and other services [18] - The projected total revenue for Kuaishou is Rmb 140,739.1 million in 2025, with an EBITDA of Rmb 31,483.3 million [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) with an unchanged DDM-based target price of S$3.06, indicating a potential upside of 17.2% from the current price of S$2.61 [2][11]. Core Insights - The proposed acquisition of 9 Tai Seng Drive (data center) and 5 Science Park Drive (business park) for S$700 million is expected to yield a net property income (NPI) yield of 7.2% and 6.1% respectively, with a projected DPU accretion of 1.36% for FY24 on a pro forma basis [1][2][6]. - The acquisition aligns with the strategic goal of deepening CLAR's presence in Singapore and the data center sector, expanding its Singapore portfolio from 65% to 67% of assets under management (AUM) and increasing its data center portfolio by 83% to over S$1 billion [2][10]. - Management plans to prioritize redevelopment and seek further acquisition opportunities in Singapore, Europe, and the US, while also working on divestments exceeding S$300 million for the remainder of the year [2][10]. Financial Overview - The acquisition will be funded through a combination of debt and net proceeds from a private placement of at least S$500 million, with expected gearing post-acquisition at 38.6%, slightly above the coverage average of 38.4% as of March 2025 [6][10]. - The first-year NPI yield for 9 Tai Seng Drive is projected at 7.2% before transaction costs, while 5 Science Park Drive is expected to yield 6.1% [6][10]. - The properties are currently under-rented by approximately 30% and 15% compared to market rates, indicating potential for rental uplift [10].