Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for oil prices, with expectations for prices to edge down to the low 60s by year-end, even if the US avoids recession [3]. Core Insights - US spot demand remains resilient, with gasoline and jet fuel demand nowcasts showing a combined increase of 140 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) year-on-year [1][7]. - OPEC+ compliance is expected to improve in the coming weeks, with total monthly cuts ranging from 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 0.5 mb/d until June 2026 [1]. - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast fell by 0.6 mb/d to 12.7 mb/d, while India oil demand decreased by 3% year-on-year in March [2][30]. - The US continues to exert pressure on China through sanctions on Chinese refineries and proposed fees on Chinese vessels docked in the US, which may increase effective freight rates [1]. Supply Summary - Trackable net supply increased by 0.6 mb/d week-on-week due to lower OECD Europe demand, while OECD commercial stocks decreased by 18 million barrels (mb) from last week [3][12]. - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands at 11.3 mb/d, in line with expectations, while Canada liquids nowcast remains at 6.3 mb/d [12][19]. - Seaborne exports from Venezuela fell by 0.3 mb/d week-on-week, marking the largest weekly drop on record since 2022 [11]. Demand Summary - US gasoline and jet fuel demand estimates are up by 140 kb/d year-on-year, indicating strong demand resilience [1][7]. - China's oil demand nowcast remains stable at 16.8 mb/d, aligning with April expectations [24]. - OECD commercial stocks are now 72 mb below their year-ago level, reflecting ongoing demand pressures [42]. Inventory Summary - OECD total oil commercial stocks nowcast edged down by 18 mb to 2,743 mb last week, standing 30 mb below the end-of-April forecast [34]. - Global commercial visible inventories decreased by 52 mb last week, indicating tightening supply conditions [11]. Price Trends - Brent prices have remained resilient despite recent fluctuations, supported by tight physical oil market conditions [1]. - The Brent 1M/36M timespread gap with fair value is currently at -14 percentage points (pp), indicating a significant deviation from historical norms [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on specific developers such as CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the current market environment [5][58]. Core Insights - The report suggests that the recent US-China tariff increases will create a temporary hiccup in the property market's stabilization rather than a complete reversal, with price stabilization in higher-tier cities expected to be delayed by 6-12 months [1][2]. - The property market is anticipated to face a contraction in sales volume, with a 13% reduction in secondary sales volume estimates for 2025E-2027E and a 2% decrease in prices [2][20]. - The analysis indicates that central SOE developers are better positioned due to their concentrated land banking strategies in resilient housing markets, which should support faster recovery of sales and margins [43][58]. Summary by Sections Industry Forecasts - The report revises down the forecasts for property sales, with a projected decline of 8% in 2025E and 6% in 2026E, reflecting weakened housing demand amid trade tensions [30][63]. - The average property sales value is expected to decline by 13% in 2025E and 8% in 2026E, with a stabilization anticipated in 2027E [30][63]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market is expected to see a widening of bid-ask spreads, leading to potential volume contraction, particularly in coastal cities with high export exposure [16][17]. - The average daily new home sales in export-reliant cities have dropped by approximately 30% since the tariff announcement, compared to a 25% decline in other tracked cities [9][10]. Developer Performance - Developers with a focus on land acquisition in top-tier cities are expected to recover profitability ahead of the industry average, with over 80% of total land acquisition value concentrated in these cities [5][43]. - The report highlights that the average population growth in top-10 cities is 4% since 2020, contributing to divergent performance among cities [10][12]. Financial Metrics - The report lowers the underlying EPS estimates for the coverage universe by 4%-6% for 2025E-2027E, reflecting lower contract sales and margins [2][63]. - The NAV-based price targets for the coverage developers are reduced by an average of 2%-3%, indicating a potential upside of 13% for SOEs and a downside of 2% for POEs [63].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Arrow Home Group [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported 2024 total revenue and net profit of RMB 7.131 billion and RMB 67 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7% and 84% [1]. - The management aims for a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, targeting a net profit of RMB 400 million, with retail channels expected to drive growth [2]. - Despite the anticipated support from the old-for-new policy, the report maintains a conservative outlook on the company's performance due to ongoing challenges in the real estate market and consumer confidence [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at RMB 7.131 billion, with a gross profit margin of 23.8% [6]. - The company experienced a net loss of RMB 73 million in Q1 2025, with a gross margin improvement to 27% [1]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027, reflecting changes in performance expectations, with a new target price of RMB 6.3 [3][8]. Market and Competitive Landscape - Arrow Home Group is the leading domestic bathroom brand in China, particularly in the low-penetration smart toilet market [7]. - The management noted that approximately 60-70% of offline stores participated in the old-for-new policy, benefiting more from this initiative compared to online channels [2]. - The smart toilet segment is expected to recover, with sales prices stabilizing in Q1 2025 after a decline in previous periods [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Envicool (002837.SZ) with a 12-month price target of RMB 50.6, indicating a potential upside of 63.2% from the current price of RMB 31.01 [10]. Core Insights - Envicool focuses on precision temperature control technology, which is increasingly adopted to enhance energy efficiency in data centers and energy storage systems, aligning with China's long-term goals of digital economy and carbon reduction [7]. - The company is experiencing strong demand from large-scale data centers and telecom operators, as well as from small and medium enterprises and edge computing projects [2]. - The growth in liquid cooling applications is expected to increase by the end of 2025 and into 2026, driven by domestic GPU manufacturers adopting this technology [2]. - The company aims for over 30% sales growth in 2025, although there are mixed signals regarding future growth drivers [2]. Data Center Cooling Business - Revenue recognition delays in data center projects impacted the overall performance in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in inventory and contract liabilities [2]. - The backlog of orders reached a record high in Q1 2025, indicating strong future demand [2]. - The gross profit margin for the data center cooling business was 27% in 2024, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [2]. Energy Storage Cooling Business - Sales growth for energy storage cooling products was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 23% in 2024, primarily due to price declines [5]. - The gross profit margin for this segment was 31% in 2024, showing a slight improvement, attributed to sales and marketing, supply chain, and cost optimization efforts [5]. - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. are expected to negatively impact the energy storage cooling business in the short term, as U.S. customers have paused direct shipments [5]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 1,717 million, an 18% year-on-year increase, but net profit fell by 25% to RMB 100 million [6]. - The operating expenses increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 28% in 2024, primarily due to workforce expansion [5]. - The company plans to maintain capital expenditures between RMB 200 million and RMB 400 million annually to support long-term growth [5].

2025年4月23日 | 7:10AM CST 中国 光伏 双反终裁税率大幅提高；在马来西亚拥有产能的 企业处在相对有利的地位 最新事件：4月21日，美国商务部宣布了对生产并进口自四个东盟国家（马来西亚、 泰国、柬埔寨和越南）的光伏电池和组件的反倾销和反补贴调查的最终肯定性决定， "双反"终裁税率远高于初裁（较初裁税率提高11-526个百分点），达到 41%-660%。反倾销税/反补贴税的生效取决于：i) 美国国际贸易委员会(ITC) 6月2日 做出最终决定；ii) 6月9日发布命令。 在本报告中，我们主要分析了中国企业在美产能所受到的潜在影响，因为此前宣布的 初裁税率就已可能导致大部分东盟产能无法盈利，而且2024年一季度以来中国头部企 业大多开始采用"自东盟进口电池+美国组装组件"的模式来进入美国市场。 王梦雯 +86(21)2401-8932 | mengwen.wang@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 杜茜 +86(21)2401-8948 | jacqueline.du@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 n 相比初裁税率情景，终裁结果对应的单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific developers, including China Resources Land, China Overseas, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Longfor Group, due to their favorable positioning in the market [3][43]. Core Insights - The report has adjusted its forecasts for the real estate industry, predicting a delay in price stabilization for first and second-tier cities by 6-12 months, now expected around mid-2026 [1][11]. - The impact of the US-China trade tensions is anticipated to create short-term challenges for the housing market, particularly affecting the secondary market, where bid-ask spreads are expected to widen [2][13]. - Despite the downward adjustments, the report suggests that the long-term outlook for the real estate market remains positive, especially if structural reforms are prioritized [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Forecast Adjustments - The report has lowered the sales volume forecast for the secondary housing market by 13% for 2025-2027, with a price reduction of 2% [2]. - For the primary market, the sales volume forecast has been reduced by an average of 6% for 2025-2026, with a 2% decrease in investment predictions [2][21]. - The completion area forecast has also been adjusted downward, reflecting a trend that has not met expectations [2][21]. Developer Coverage - The core earnings per share (EPS) forecast for covered developers has been adjusted down by 4%-6% for 2025-2027, with target prices reduced by an average of 3% [2][47]. - Developers with significant land reserves in first-tier cities are expected to recover more quickly, with a focus on quality land acquisitions [3][32]. - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to maintain stable contract sales growth, contrasting with a projected decline for private-owned enterprises (POEs) [47]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the average daily new home sales in export-reliant cities have dropped by approximately 30% since the tariff announcement, compared to a 25% decline in other cities [7]. - The performance divergence among cities is noted, with top-tier cities showing stronger fundamentals and population growth compared to lower-tier cities [8]. - The report emphasizes that the secondary market is likely to face more significant challenges due to deteriorating supply quality and increased competition from new homes [14][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Tesla Inc. with a 12-month price target of $260, indicating a potential upside of 9.3% from the current price of $237.97 [17][19]. Core Insights - The report presents a mixed view on Tesla's performance, highlighting weaker non-GAAP EPS of $0.27 compared to the Street's expectation of $0.41, alongside ongoing risks from tariffs and macroeconomic factors. However, some key metrics, such as new vehicle model production timing and automotive non-GAAP gross margin excluding credits, were better than feared [3][4]. - Tesla's revenue for 1Q25 was reported at $19.3 billion, which is 9% below the previous year and 3% below Goldman Sachs' estimate. Vehicle deliveries were approximately 337,000, down 32% quarter-over-quarter and 13% year-over-year [5][10]. - The automotive non-GAAP gross margin was reported at 12.5%, below Goldman Sachs' estimate of 13.0% but above the Street's consensus of 11.6%. This margin decreased from 13.6% in 4Q24 and 16.4% in 1Q24 [6][10]. - Tesla plans to start production of new lower-cost models in the first half of 2025 and aims to begin robotaxi operations by June in Austin, Texas [3][4][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Tesla reported 1Q25 revenue of $19,335 million, down 25% quarter-over-quarter and down 9% year-over-year, which was 3% below Goldman Sachs' estimate and 9% below the Street [5][10]. - The automotive revenue was $13,967 million, down 29% quarter-over-quarter and down 20% year-over-year, with an implied vehicle average selling price (ASP) of about $40,000 [8][10]. - Energy Generation and Storage revenue was $2,730 million, down 11% quarter-over-quarter but up 67% year-over-year, with energy being Tesla's highest margin business in 1Q [8][9]. Outlook and Guidance - Tesla indicated that the growth rate for the year will depend on various factors, including the acceleration of autonomy efforts and the production ramp at its factories. The company plans to revisit its 2025 guidance in the second quarter update [4][12]. - The company previously expected vehicle business growth in 2025, contrasting with Goldman Sachs' estimate of a 4% decline year-over-year and a consensus of a 2% increase for vehicle deliveries [4][12]. Key Metrics - The total company gross margin was reported at 16.3%, slightly below the Street's estimate of 16.4% but above Goldman Sachs' estimate of 15.6% [6][10]. - Free cash flow (FCF) for 1Q25 was $0.7 billion, with cash and cash equivalents increasing to $37.0 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the fiscal situation in China, expecting further fiscal easing ahead due to ongoing economic challenges [1][9]. Core Insights - Fiscal revenue growth improved to +0.3% year-on-year in March from -1.6% in January-February, driven by stronger-than-expected activity data [2][5]. - Fiscal expenditure growth rose to +5.7% year-on-year in March from +3.4% in January-February, primarily due to increased spending in energy saving, environmental protection, and agriculture [6]. - The ongoing property downturn continues to negatively impact local government funding, with land sales revenue declining by -16.3% year-on-year in March [7][8]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - On-budget fiscal revenue growth was +0.3% year-on-year in March, a recovery from -1.6% in January-February, with tax revenue contraction narrowing to -2.2% [2][5]. - Fiscal expenditure growth increased to +5.7% year-on-year in March, up from +3.4% in January-February, driven by specific sectors [6]. Property Sector Impact - Property-related government revenue remained weak, with land sales revenue down -16.3% year-on-year in March, indicating continued pressure from the property market [7][8]. - The contraction in property-related tax revenue narrowed to -0.1% in March from -11.4% in January-February, suggesting some stabilization [7]. Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD) - The AFD metric narrowed to -10.9% of GDP in March from -11.6% in February on a 3-month moving average basis, while it widened slightly on a 12-month moving average basis [3][8]. - The forecast for the AFD metric is expected to widen by 4.1 percentage points of GDP to 14.5% in 2025, indicating a shift in fiscal policy from a growth drag to a potential driver [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive, with a strong appeal due to growth potential in IT and software sectors [5][9]. Core Insights - IT spending for digital transformation (DX) is booming, driven by the declining working-age population in Japan, which necessitates increased IT investment as a manpower substitute [9][24]. - The report highlights several investment themes, including cloud services (SaaS/data centers), Windows 10 upgrade demand, increased defense spending, and government digitalization initiatives [10][35][39]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report anticipates minimal direct impact from the increase in US tariffs on the industry [2]. - Cash flow levels at firms have risen significantly, indicating strong financial health [3]. - The working-age population decline is exacerbating labor shortages, prompting a greater focus on digitalization among management [7]. Investment Themes - Key investment themes include: - Cloud business (SaaS/data centers) [10]. - Demand for Windows 10 upgrades as support ends in October 2025 [38]. - Increased defense budget, projected to rise to approximately ¥43.5 trillion [39]. - Government initiatives for digital transformation in public administration [39]. Financial Performance - The report notes that valuations in the industry do not appear overheated, allowing for a focus on fundamentals and thematic stocks [9]. - The expected growth in IT spending is projected at a 5-year CAGR of 8% through 2028, with software investment growing at 10% and IT services at 7% [23][26]. Company Focus - Preferred stocks include: - OBIC Business Consultants (OBC), with a strong shift to cloud business and high recurring revenue [11][40]. - NTT Data, expected to see significant profit increases from its data center business [47]. - NEC, benefiting from the defense budget expansion and government digitization projects [51]. Market Trends - The report indicates that cloud spending in Japan is only 12% of total IT spending, compared to 37% globally, suggesting substantial growth potential [38]. - The overall IT spending in Japan is projected to reach ¥8,491 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth of 9.5% [33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the energy sector Core Insights - The energy sector is fundamental to modern life, with global energy consumption exceeding 600 exajoules annually, including over 104 million barrels of oil per day and around 30 trillion watts of electricity [7][8] - The document serves as a primer for understanding the production, movement, and consumption of energy, aimed at both dedicated energy investors and generalist investors [8] - The energy ecosystem is highly integrated across two main supply chains: oil and fuels, and electricity, with oil production at approximately 104 million barrels per day globally [16][17] Summary by Sections Section I: Oil - Exploration and Production (E&P) companies are responsible for resource exploration, well design, drilling, and production management [23] - The largest oil fields include Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, with a productive capacity of approximately 3.8 million barrels per day [43] - The US shale boom has significantly increased production, shifting the US from a net importer to a net exporter of oil [54] Section II: Gas and NGLs - The largest natural gas basins in the US are in Appalachia and Haynesville, with significant production challenges due to regulatory constraints [56] - Natural gas production is often a by-product of oil production, with key players in Appalachia including EQT Corp. and Antero Resources [56] Section III: Electricity and Utilities - The US electric system is increasingly reliant on natural gas and renewables, with a focus on lower emissions [17] - The power generation mix has evolved over time, with independent power producers playing a significant role [15] Section IV: Renewables - The report discusses the components of solar energy systems, including solar panels and energy storage [15] - Government subsidies and policies are crucial for the growth of the renewables industry [15]