[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 再鼎医药(09688.HK) 2025 年 04 月 14 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：医疗保健业/药品及生物科技 当前价格(港币)：22.20 元 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 李霁阳 资格编号：S0120523080003 邮箱：lijy7＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -31% 0% 31% 63% 94% 126% 157% 188% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 再鼎医药 恒生指数 | 恒 生 指 数 对 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比 | | | | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -18.83 | 5.21 | 17.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -7.45 | 9.53 | 7.63 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 重症肌无力领域近期新药进展众多，我们认为艾加莫德作为 BIC，在 MG 治疗领 域地位难以被撼动。 1）快速起效，快速达标：越来越多的临床试验使用基 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth supported by an expanding management scale, with a projected management area growth of 7.4% year-on-year to 431.1 million square meters by the end of 2024 [5][6] - Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to grow at a high single-digit rate during this period [5][6] - The target price remains unchanged at HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price [1][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,051 million - 2024: RMB 14,024 million (up 7.5% year-on-year) - 2025E: RMB 15,227 million (up 8.6% year-on-year) [4][10] - Core profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,343 million - 2024: RMB 1,511 million (up 12.5% year-on-year) - 2025E: RMB 1,651 million (up 9.3% year-on-year) [4][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to rebound to 16.6% in 2024, with a stable range of 16-17% projected for 2025-2027 [5][6] Share Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 3.71% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17,437.83 million [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK$ 119.08, based on a 24x FY25E P/E ratio [1][3]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is viewed positively, with the acquisition price considered attractive and significant potential for expansion in the mid-priced outdoor industry and European markets [1][11]. - Despite a slight decline in retail sales growth in March-April 2025, the outlook for Q2 2025 remains cautiously optimistic due to various growth drivers [11][12]. - The company's retail sales growth in Q1 2025 was satisfactory, with improvements in inventory management and a better-than-expected profit margin [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 78,235 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2][12]. - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB 14,961.4 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.66, down from RMB 5.34 in FY24A [2][12]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately HK$ 226.67 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 83.85, indicating a potential upside of 42% to the target price [3][4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 17x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to its 5-year average of 25x [1][12]. Acquisition Details - Anta Sports announced the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million (approximately RMB 23.5 billion), with expected sales of EUR 325 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 12 million for FY25E [11][18]. - The valuation metrics for the acquisition indicate a P/S ratio of approximately 0.8x, which is lower than both Anta's group average and the global sports industry average [11][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BOE Varitronix, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [10][20]. Core Insights - The management believes that the recent US reciprocal tariffs will have a limited impact on financials due to low US sales exposure, which is only 2.6% in FY23 [9][10]. - BOE Varitronix is optimistic about the ramp-up of capacity in Vietnam by 2025 and has already secured orders from US and South Korean customers [9]. - The company plans to focus on overseas market expansion and adjust its product mix to mitigate tariff risks in the long term [9][10]. - A share repurchase plan announced on April 11 demonstrates management's confidence in the business outlook [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$10,760 million in FY23A to HK$22,228 million in FY27E, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 14.6% [2][17]. - Net profit is expected to recover from HK$391.3 million in FY24A to HK$738.7 million in FY27E, with a notable growth of 29.4% in FY25E [2][17]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.1x in FY24A to 5.4x in FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [2][10]. Target Price and Upside Potential - The target price for BOE Varitronix is set at HK$9.63, representing an upside potential of 91.8% from the current price of HK$5.02 [3][10]. Share Performance and Market Data - The market capitalization of BOE Varitronix is approximately HK$3,975.8 million, with an average turnover of HK$35.3 million over the last three months [4]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 30.9% over the past month and 17.4% over the past three months [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience stable growth supported by an expanding management scale, with a projected management area growth of 7.4% year-on-year to 431.1 million square meters by the end of 2024 [5][6] - Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to grow at a high single-digit rate during this period [5] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price of HKD 5.31 [1][5] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,051 million - 2024: RMB 14,024 million (growth of 7.5%) - 2025: RMB 15,227 million (growth of 8.6%) - 2026: RMB 16,127 million (growth of 5.9%) - 2027: RMB 16,958 million (growth of 5.2%) [4][10] - Core profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,343 million - 2024: RMB 1,511 million (growth of 12.5%) - 2025: RMB 1,651 million (growth of 9.3%) - 2026: RMB 1,750 million (growth of 6.0%) - 2027: RMB 1,855 million (growth of 6.0%) [4][10] - The company’s net profit is projected to increase from approximately RMB 1.51 billion in 2024 to RMB 1.86 billion in 2027 [5][10] Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 3.71% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17,437.83 million [3][4] - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 7.12 and HKD 4.05, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q1 2025 performance is expected to exceed expectations, driven by strong sales in the new energy vehicle segment, with projected net profit before accounting policy changes estimated at 11.6-12.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 640%-690% [2][4]. - The company is entering a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with positive developments across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy [2][8]. - The transition to new energy is progressing smoothly, with scale effects expected to enhance profitability, while the solid foundation of fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Geely is expected to achieve sales of 704,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5%, marking a historical quarterly high [8]. - The projected net profit after accounting policy changes is estimated at 5.2-5.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 220%-270% [4][8]. - The single vehicle profit is expected to be between 0.74-0.82 million yuan, showing significant improvement [8]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with various new and updated models across its brands [8]. - The company is focusing on both electrification and intelligence, with a significant increase in the adoption of intelligent driving capabilities [8]. Market Position - The new energy transition is accelerating profitability, with structural optimization and scale effects further enhancing profit margins [8]. - Geely's strong new vehicle cycle is expected to provide substantial profit elasticity, with a projected net profit of 16.1 billion yuan for 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8.7X [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.384 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.347 billion yuan, a 134.8% increase year-on-year, although the adjusted net profit showed a loss of 2.33 billion yuan, worsening by 270 million yuan year-on-year [2][8]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth driven by increased demand from downstream customers, with significant contributions from both product solutions and authorized services [8]. - The company is focusing on R&D investments to build a technological moat, despite facing losses in adjusted net profit [8]. - The report forecasts continued growth in both volume and price for the company's product solutions in 2025, with expectations of significant increases in average selling prices due to the introduction of higher-tier products [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 77.3%, up 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in revenue structure favoring higher-margin authorized services [8]. - The company’s total expenses for 2024 were 4.746 billion yuan, accounting for 176% of revenue, with R&D expenses alone reaching 3.16 billion yuan, which is 132% of revenue [8]. - The financial projections for 2025-2027 estimate revenues of 3.67 billion, 5.66 billion, and 8.18 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 54.0%, 54.3%, and 44.4% respectively [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 12.45% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 27.026 billion. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.89% to 1.684 billion [1][12] - Despite the revenue pressure, the company’s gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 27.0%, showcasing strong cost transmission capabilities [2] - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.165 billion, 2.398 billion, and 2.618 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 5.7, 5.1, and 4.7 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from various segments was as follows: plastic pipeline systems (22.819 billion), building materials and home products (2.271 billion), environmental protection (0.277 billion), supply chain services (0.930 billion), and new energy (0.223 billion), with year-on-year changes of -7.2%, -20.0%, -28.42%, -38.61%, and -77.96% respectively [2] - The core business of plastic pipeline systems saw sales of PVC and non-PVC pipes at 12.923 billion and 9.896 billion respectively, with total sales volume down by 6.2% to 2.4829 million tons [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company’s expense ratio increased to 19.32%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, impacting the net profit margin which fell to 6.23% [3] - The net asset return rate was reported at 7.11%, a decrease of 3.34 percentage points year-on-year [3] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on high-quality development through smart and green manufacturing upgrades, with a designed annual capacity of 3.29 million tons and a utilization rate of 76.4% [4] - The company is expanding its international presence in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the United States, while also innovating in product offerings such as PE pipes for nuclear power plants [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company has secured a total of HKD 650 million in term loans from two banks, reflecting its strong financing capabilities as a state-owned developer in Guangzhou [1]. - Revenue for 2024 reached CNY 86.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, while core net profit significantly declined by 54.4% to CNY 1.59 billion due to impairment losses [1][2]. - The company has a robust land bank, with a total area of 19.71 million square meters across 25 cities, primarily in first and second-tier cities [2]. - The financing cost has improved, with a weighted average borrowing rate of 3.49% for 2024, down 33 basis points year-on-year [3]. - The company projects revenue growth of 1.2% to CNY 87.4 billion in 2025, with a target of CNY 120.5 billion in sales [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financing and Loans - The company has successfully signed term loans totaling HKD 650 million, indicating continued access to financing [1]. - The weighted average borrowing rate has decreased to 3.49%, showcasing improved financing costs [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 86.4 billion, a 7.7% increase from the previous year [1]. - Core net profit fell to CNY 1.59 billion, a decline of 54.4%, primarily due to significant impairment losses totaling CNY 39 billion [1][4]. Land Bank and Sales - The company holds a land bank of 19.71 million square meters, with a focus on major cities, and has added 24 new land parcels in 2024 [2]. - Sales volume decreased by 12% to 3.92 million square meters, with sales revenue down 19% to CNY 115.4 billion [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth of 1.2% in 2025, with a sales target of CNY 120.5 billion, indicating expectations of market stabilization [2][4]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are CNY 87.4 billion, CNY 91.4 billion, and CNY 97.0 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12X, 9X, and 7X [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Views - The company has successfully secured a total of HKD 650 million in term loans from two banks, reflecting its strong financing capabilities as a state-owned developer in Guangzhou [1]. - Despite a 54.4% year-on-year decline in core net profit to CNY 1.59 billion due to impairment losses, the company reported a 7.7% increase in revenue to CNY 86.4 billion for 2024 [1][2]. - The company has a robust land bank of 19.71 million square meters, primarily located in first- and second-tier cities, which supports its future sales and revenue growth [2]. - The financing costs have been optimized, with a weighted average borrowing rate of 3.49% for 2024, down 33 basis points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 86.4 billion, a 7.7% increase from the previous year, while the gross margin decreased to 10.5%, down 4.8 percentage points [1][4]. - The core net profit for 2024 was CNY 1.59 billion, a significant drop of 54.4% due to impairment provisions totaling CNY 2.27 billion for development properties and CNY 1.63 billion for long-term assets [1]. Land Bank and Sales - As of the end of 2024, the company added 24 plots of land with a total construction area of approximately 2.71 million square meters, bringing its total land bank to 19.71 million square meters across 25 cities [2]. - The sales area for 2024 was 3.92 million square meters, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, with sales revenue of CNY 115.4 billion, down 19% [2]. Financing and Cost Structure - The company has diversified its financing channels, successfully issuing a total of CNY 2.5 billion in bonds and debt instruments at competitive rates [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of CNY 87.4 billion, CNY 91.4 billion, and CNY 97.0 billion, representing growth rates of 1.2%, 4.6%, and 6.1% respectively [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 12X, 9X, and 7X, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings are expected to recover [4].