证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车 2024 年 12 月销量点评：年度 交付破 50 万辆，AI 助力下一阶段成长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月06日 基本数据 | 总股本/流通股本(百万股) | 1,992/1,992 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 191,312.02 | | 每股净资产(元) | 31.90 | | 资产负债率(%) | 58.71 | | 一年内最高/最低(港元) | 182.90/68.65 | 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025 年 1 月 1 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年 12 月及全年交付数据。2024 年 12 月，理想汽车交 付 58,513 辆，同比增长 16.2%。2024 年累计交付 500,508 辆。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营 业收入分别为 1473/2054/2800 亿元，同比增速分别为 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%，归母净利润分别 为 85.3/142.4/237.3 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 速 分 别 为 -27.1%/6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.00, implying a potential upside of 42.0% [1][4] Core Views - JD Logistics' Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 8.6% YoY to RMB 51.25 billion, driven by increased market share capture and prior investments in shipping and air routes [2][7] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is forecasted to increase by 10% YoY to RMB 2.0 billion, surpassing market expectations of RMB 1.7 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.9% [7] - Full-year 2024 revenue is projected to grow by 9% YoY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.2%, in line with company guidance of 3-4% [2][7] - The company's prior investments are expected to continue driving revenue growth in 2025, with further efficiency improvements and the ongoing integration of Taobao contributing to incremental gains [2] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profitability - 2024E revenue is revised upward by 0.6% to RMB 181.99 billion, with 2025E and 2026E revenues forecasted at RMB 194.62 billion and RMB 208.22 billion, respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is revised downward by 3.1% to RMB 7.67 billion, with 2025E and 2026E adjusted net profits projected at RMB 7.91 billion and RMB 8.48 billion, respectively [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 10.6%, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.2% for 2024E and 4.1% for both 2025E and 2026E [3][7] Segment Performance - External customer revenue is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2024E to RMB 95.28 billion, driven by strong performance in other external customer segments [3] - External integrated supply chain revenue is forecasted to decline by 1.1% in 2024E to RMB 31.99 billion, reflecting a slight slowdown in this segment [3] Key Financial Metrics - Non-GAAP adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.212, increasing to RMB 1.241 in 2025E and RMB 1.320 in 2026E [17] - ROE is expected to improve significantly, reaching 29.8% in 2024E, 28.1% in 2025E, and 25.6% in 2026E, reflecting strong profitability and operational efficiency [18] Industry and Peer Comparison - JD Logistics is part of the logistics sector, with peers including SF Express (9699 HK) and Dada Group (DADA US), both of which also hold Buy ratings [12] - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from continued e-commerce growth and supply chain optimization, with JD Logistics well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as the second-largest packaged drinking water enterprise in China and the largest in the bottled pure water segment, with a multi-category strategic development framework centered around its flagship brand "Yibao" [15]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 13.51 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.33 billion yuan, up 34.3% year-on-year [15]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, with a retail sales figure of 39.5 billion yuan for "Yibao" pure water, leading the market, and significant contributions from its beverage brands [15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has undergone four development phases: industry pioneering (1984-2000), core business refinement (2001-2010), national expansion (2011-2017), and dual-driven growth (2018-present) [16]. - The management team is experienced, with a significant shareholding of 50.04% by China Resources Group, ensuring stability and strategic alignment [1]. Industry Analysis - The pure drinking water market is projected to grow, with a market size of 120.6 billion yuan in 2023 and a CAGR of 7.7% from 2018 to 2023, driven by increasing health awareness and the expansion of household and restaurant usage scenarios [2]. - The competitive landscape shows a trend towards oligopoly, with the top five companies' market share increasing from 56.2% in 2021 to 58.6% in 2023 [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% in revenue and 24.5% in net profit from 2021 to 2023, indicating strong operational efficiency and cost management [1]. - The revenue from packaged water reached 12.45 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 4.5%, while beverage revenue surged by 49% to 1.07 billion yuan [1][3]. Product and Brand Strategy - The company has a comprehensive product matrix with over 13 brands and 59 SKUs, focusing on pure water, tea beverages, juices, and coffee [15]. - The beverage segment, particularly self-owned brands, has shown remarkable growth, with self-owned beverage revenue reaching 880 million yuan, up 65.3% year-on-year [3]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages sports marketing to enhance brand recognition and has a robust distribution network covering over 2 million retail points [4]. - Plans for capacity expansion include the establishment of five new factories by 2024-2025, aiming for a total capacity of 6.61 million tons for packaged water and 350,000 tons for beverages [4][7].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6] Core Viewpoints - WeChat Mini Store could bring new opportunities for the company's development [1] - The company has undergone significant changes in business, logic, valuation, and expectations since the "small essay" incident [1] - The company has deeply refined its self-operated products, improved supply chain capabilities, and refined online marketing strategies [1] - Successfully completed the operational transition under the background of traffic switching, remaining an excellent product technology and cultural company [1] Competitive Advantages - Wide recognition, brand endorsement, and precise positioning [2] - WeChat e-commerce has strong social attributes, and the company has natural recognition and trust due to previous public opinion events [2] - Brand awareness may be stronger than pure cost-effectiveness in gift-giving scenarios, aligning with the company's brand philosophy of "health, high quality, and high cost-performance" [2] - The company has established and continuously improved its membership system, providing more favorable products and comprehensive services to customers [2] - Rich SKU matrix with high product category selectivity [3] - Unlike single-brand offerings, a wider product range helps capture more traffic conversion opportunities [3] - Since April 2022, the company has developed and launched 488 SKUs of self-operated products, expanding its product line to more categories (2023 fiscal year: 120 SKUs) [3] - Product categories have expanded from fresh food and snacks to more diversified product series [3] - Over 100 self-operated products have become top three bestsellers in their categories on Douyin [3] - The company focuses on discovering unmet consumer needs, establishing differentiated market positioning, building strong brand awareness, expanding market coverage, and continuously improving and expanding product categories [3] - Strong team execution resilience and keen judgment on opportunities [4] - The company quickly responded to the WeChat Mini Store's gift-giving feature, demonstrating adaptability and learning ability in a changing environment [4] Financial Projections - Expected FY25-27 revenues of 7.4 billion RMB, 8.4 billion RMB, and 9.6 billion RMB respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company of 330 million RMB, 540 million RMB, and 630 million RMB respectively [5] - EPS of 0.32 RMB/share, 0.52 RMB/share, and 0.61 RMB/share respectively [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios of 49x, 30x, and 26x [5] Industry and Market Data - Industry: Non-essential consumption/Media & Entertainment [6] - Current price: 16.78 HKD [6] - Total HKD shares outstanding: 1,035.77 million [6] - Total HKD market capitalization: 17,380.16 million HKD [6] - Net asset value per share: 5.30 HKD [6] - Asset-liability ratio: 24.03% [6] - 1-year high/low: 30.65 HKD/8.92 HKD [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has raised its revenue expectations, forecasting operating revenues of 1.72 billion, 2.64 billion, and 4.24 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected net profit of -435 million, -274 million, and 69 million RMB for the same years [2] - The current price corresponds to a PS valuation of 7.6, 5.0, and 3.1 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s operating revenue for 2022 was 530 million RMB, with a growth rate of 60.19% expected in 2023, and further growth rates of 111.22%, 53.92%, and 53.33% projected for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The net profit for 2022 was -2.09 billion RMB, with forecasts of -4.34 billion RMB in 2023, -435 million RMB in 2024, -274 million RMB in 2025, and a positive 69 million RMB in 2026 [5] - The diluted earnings per share are projected to improve from -4.53 RMB in 2022 to 0.15 RMB in 2026 [5] Product Development and Market Position - The company held a global launch event for its AI robots, introducing several new Lidar products and a comprehensive robotics platform [6][7] - The new Lidar products include the EM4, E1R, and Airy, which are designed for high performance in various applications, including ADAS and robotics [6][9] - The Robo FSD mobile platform and the Papert 2.0 dexterous hand were also introduced, showcasing advanced capabilities for autonomous movement and manipulation [10][12] - The company aims to position itself as a leading supplier of incremental components and solutions for intelligent robotics, leveraging its expertise in Lidar technology [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to RoboSense, indicating an expected relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - RoboSense held the "Hello Robot" 2025 AI Robotics Global Launch Event on January 3, 2025, unveiling three new digital LiDAR models (EM4, E1R, and AIRY) and several incremental robotic components [1][8]. - The new digital LiDAR products significantly enhance automotive and robotic sensing capabilities, showcasing RoboSense's technological expertise and development capabilities [2][9]. - The strategic expansion from automotive LiDAR to robotics opens diversified opportunities, enhancing product adaptability and market coverage while supporting the future development of intelligent robots and unmanned systems [4][11]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - RoboSense launched three new digital LiDAR models and multiple robotic components at the 2025 AI Robotics Global Launch Event [1][8]. Digital LiDAR Products - EM4: The world's first 1,000-line ultra-long-range LiDAR with a 600-meter detection range and 1080-line resolution [2][9]. - E1R: The world's first solid-state digital LiDAR, compact with a 130°×90° field of view, suitable for various mobile robot applications [2][9]. - AIRY: A 192-line compact digital LiDAR designed for robotics, offering a 360°×90° field of view [2][9]. Incremental Robotic Components - Active Camera: A fusion sensing device that enhances robotic vision precision and versatility [3][10]. - Papert 2.0: A second-generation dexterous hand with 20 degrees of freedom and a maximum load capacity of 5 kilograms [3][10]. - DC-G1 Domain Controller: A highly integrated and energy-efficient controller supporting various real-time sensing models [3][10]. - LA-8000 Joint Motor: A high-power-density motor suitable for humanoid robot leg joints [3][10]. - FS-3D Force Tactile Sensor: Designed for end-motion control in legged robots [3][10]. Strategic Expansion - RoboSense's expansion into the robotics domain reflects a decade of expertise in automotive LiDAR, broadening its technological layout and application boundaries [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Kingsoft Software (3888) with a target price of HKD 46.85 per share, based on a 2025 PE of 35x [4][18] Core Views - Kingsoft Software is a leading software and internet service company in China, focusing on interactive entertainment and office software, with cloud services and AI as new directions [14] - The company's revenue has grown steadily from RMB 4.37 billion in 2019 to RMB 8.53 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.20% [15] - The gaming business is strong, with Sword 3 showing resilience and new games like Limit Breaker and Sword Zero expected to contribute to future growth [16] - WPS AI, launched overseas in June 2024, is expected to enhance smart office platforms for 200 million users, with R&D efficiency improved by over 30% and costs reduced by over 35% [17] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 10.19 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.83 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.8% [4][18] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.87 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.33 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 41.9% [4][18] - EPS is projected to rise from RMB 0.65 in 2024 to RMB 1.75 in 2026 [4][18] - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 82.44% to 83.31% from 2024 to 2026 [18] Business Segments - Office software and services revenue is expected to grow from RMB 5.11 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.55 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.93% [18] - Gaming revenue is forecasted to increase from RMB 5.05 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.23 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.80% [18] Strategic Initiatives - Kingsoft Office continues to focus on AI and collaboration, offering an AI office experience and advancing new productivity in the office sector [14] - The company is expanding its gaming portfolio with new titles like Limit Breaker and Sword Zero, which are expected to drive future growth [16] - Collaboration with Amazon Cloud has enhanced WPS AI's capabilities, improving R&D efficiency and reducing costs [17]

毛戈平（1318.HK）首次覆盖报告 何以高端？ 2025 年 01 月 04 日 ➢ 毛戈平是国内领先的中国高端美妆集团，东方美学的引领者。公司于 2000 年 7 月由中国著名化妆师毛戈平先生创立，旗下有 MAOGEPING（定位高端，主打光影 美学和东方美学理念）和至爱终生（定位大众时尚）两大品牌，业务涵盖彩妆、护肤 和化妆培训三大板块，24H1 彩妆/护肤/化妆艺术培训及相关销售的营收占比分别为 55%/41%/4%。根据弗若斯特沙利文数据，2023 年主品牌 MAOGEPING 是中国市 场十五大高端美妆品牌中唯一的国货品牌，占高端美妆行业的市场份额为 1.8%。 2024 年 12 月，公司成功在港交所上市，所募资金主要用于渠道拓展、品牌建设等。 ➢ 中国彩妆行业增长潜力大，目前正处于重要的结构性增长拐点。1）根据欧睿数 据，护肤品类为化妆品市场核心，彩妆品类占比略低但增速更高，2009-2023 年护 肤/彩妆市场规模 CAGR 分别为 8.6%/11.5%，23 年护肤/彩妆分别占化妆品整体份 额的 51.4%/11.3%。我们认为国内目前正处于护肤意识已经基本普及，中国彩妆市 场面临着对化妆 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has made significant progress in its internationalization efforts, particularly with the global licensing of its DLL3ADC drug IBI3009 to Roche, which includes an upfront payment of $80 million and potential milestone payments up to $1 billion, along with a sales revenue share [7] - The company is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven by 2025 and aims for domestic sales of 20 billion yuan by 2027, driven by multiple product launches and overseas collaborations [7] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 81 billion yuan in 2024, 114.91 billion yuan in 2025, and 151.78 billion yuan in 2026, indicating strong growth potential [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 4,557 million yuan, with a projected increase to 6,206 million yuan in 2023, and further growth to 8,100 million yuan in 2024, 11,491 million yuan in 2025, and 15,178 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 36.19% from 2022 to 2023 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 2,179.27 million yuan in 2022 to a profit of 2,211.27 million yuan by 2026, showcasing a significant turnaround [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to turn positive, reaching 1.35 yuan per share by 2026, compared to a loss of 1.33 yuan per share in 2022 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has launched new robot products, marking the beginning of its development in the vehicle and robot platform for the new decade [8] - The company aims to accelerate the popularization of robots by creating a humanoid robot development platform and has introduced several new products [8] - The company has achieved breakthroughs in overseas robot customers and is expected to replicate the growth trajectory seen in its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) segment [8] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting its dual focus on automotive and robotics [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,120.15 million in 2023 to 4,186.68 million by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 111.22% in 2023 and 44.82% in 2026 [1][9] - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 4,336.63 million in 2023 to a profit of 52.54 million by 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [1][9] - Earnings per share are forecasted to increase from 2.43 in 2024 to 9.08 in 2026 [1][9] Product Development - The company has introduced several innovative products, including the second-generation dexterous hand Papert 2.0 and the world's first long-range laser radar EM4, enhancing its capabilities in both automotive and robotics sectors [8] - The new products are designed to improve the performance of intelligent driving and robotics, addressing existing market pain points [8] Market Position - The company has expanded its partnerships in the robotics field, increasing its collaboration with key customers from 2,400 to 2,600 [8] - The company has established a strong presence in the ADAS market, with 28 automotive manufacturers and suppliers collaborating on 92 designated models [8]