Investment Rating - Buy (First-time rating) with a target price of HKD 40.53 [2][4] Core Investment Thesis - The company is a leader in the packaged water and sugar-free tea industries, benefiting from rising health consciousness among consumers. Its flagship products, natural water and Oriental Leaf, have driven strong financial performance, with revenue and profit CAGR of 23% and 32% respectively from 2020 to 2023 [3] - The launch of "Green Water" has mitigated the impact of negative publicity on the company's core water business, with short-term pressure on gross margins expected to ease over the medium to long term [3] - The sugar-free tea market, led by Oriental Leaf, has significant growth potential, with penetration rates expected to rise to 50%-60% in the future [3] - The company is well-positioned to capture opportunities in emerging categories such as sports drinks and ready-to-drink coffee, leveraging its platform advantages [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 44.98 billion in 2024 to CNY 60.53 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.9% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from CNY 11.88 billion in 2024 to CNY 16.54 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 18% [6] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 27x in 2024 to 20x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [4] Packaged Water Business - The packaged water industry is driven by health-conscious trends and expanding consumption scenarios, with long-term growth potential [12] - The company holds a leading market share in packaged water, with a 17.4% volume share and 23.6% value share in 2023 [21] - The launch of "Green Water" has impacted gross margins, but the company's strong brand and channel advantages are expected to stabilize market share and margins over time [36][37] Tea Beverage Business - The sugar-free tea market is poised for significant growth, with Oriental Leaf expected to double in size due to rising health awareness and favorable industry trends [3] - The company's tea beverage business has a strong competitive edge, with a leading gross margin and a well-established brand and supply chain [49][50] - Oriental Leaf's market share is expected to remain stable, supported by product innovation and competitive pricing [55] Other Beverage Categories - The company is focusing on high-growth segments such as sports drinks and ready-to-drink coffee, leveraging its platform advantages to capture market share [3] - The functional beverage and juice categories have shown steady growth, with the company outperforming industry averages [56] - The company is streamlining its product portfolio to improve efficiency and profitability, with a focus on zero-sugar and natural products [57][58] Industry Trends - The packaged water industry is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing per capita consumption and health-conscious trends [12][13] - The sugar-free tea market is projected to expand significantly, with penetration rates expected to rise to 50%-60% in the coming years [3][46] - Emerging categories such as ready-to-drink coffee and functional beverages present new growth opportunities for the company [57][58]

裕元集团（0551.HK）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] ➢ 事件概述。2024 年 11 月 11 日，裕元集团发布 2024 年前三季度未经审核 综合业绩。24Q1-Q3，集团实现营收 60.75 亿美元，同比+1.5%，毛利率为 24.2%，同比+0.7 pct，归母净利润为 3.32 亿美元，同比+140.9%。其中，24Q3， 实现营收 20.60 亿美元，同比+12.5%，毛利率为 24.1%，同比+0.6 pct，归母 净利润为 1.47 亿美元，同比+172.3%。 ➢ 集团整体情况。1）收入拆分：24Q1-Q3，集团总收入 60.75 亿美元，同比 +1.5%。制造业务收入 41.36 亿美元，同比+9.0%，其中，运动鞋/户外鞋收入 32.48 亿美元，同比+7.2%，休闲鞋及运动凉鞋收入 5.35 亿美元，同比+15.1%， 鞋底、配件及其他收入 3.53 亿美元，同比+18.3%；宝胜零售业务收入 19.40 亿 美元，同比-11.6%（以人民币计算，同比-9.5%）。2）毛利率端：24Q1-Q3，集 团毛利率为 24.2%，同比+0.7 p ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.708 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [4] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was $796 million, up 8% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached $3.071 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit growing by 20% to $297 million [4] - The diluted EPS for Q3 2024 was $0.77, reflecting a 33% increase compared to the previous year [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s same-store sales improved sequentially, with overall sales growth of 4%, 6% for KFC, and 2% for Pizza Hut [4] - The same-store sales declined by 3%, 2%, and 6% for overall, KFC, and Pizza Hut respectively, indicating a recovery to approximately 88% of 2019 levels, an improvement of about 1 percentage point from Q2 [4] - KFC and Pizza Hut's order volumes increased by 1% and 4%, while average transaction prices decreased by 3% and 9% respectively [4] Store Expansion and Performance - As of Q3 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 15,861, with net additions of 1,189 stores in the first three quarters [4] - KFC had 11,283 stores, with net additions of 352 in Q3, while Pizza Hut had 3,606 stores, with 102 net additions [4] - The proportion of new stores in lower-tier cities was 58% for KFC and 60% for Pizza Hut, with franchise stores accounting for 27% and 7% respectively [4] Digitalization and Shareholder Returns - The company is advancing digitalization and delivery services, with over 510 million combined members for KFC and Pizza Hut, and member sales accounting for 64% of total sales [4] - Digital orders contributed $2.61 billion, representing 90% of restaurant revenue [4] - Delivery sales grew by 18% year-on-year, making up approximately 40% of restaurant revenue [4] - The shareholder return plan has been increased by 50%, targeting $4.5 billion from 2024 to 2026 [4] Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced costs, with employee costs, property rents, and other operating expenses decreasing as a percentage of restaurant revenue [4] - The cost of materials and consumables accounted for 31.7% of restaurant revenue, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Employee costs represented 25.1% of restaurant revenue, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of $901 million, $963 million, and $1.048 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 8.9%, 6.9%, and 8.9% [4] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between HKD 354.0 and HKD 432.7 per share based on a PE ratio of 18-22 times for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 45, corresponding to a market capitalization of HKD 595 billion, based on a 1x 2025 estimated price-to-sales ratio [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved impressive sales performance in Q3, delivering 86,165 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 94% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 62%. Revenue for Q3 increased by 74.3% to RMB 9.86 billion, driven by the introduction of higher-priced models and improved cost management [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 significantly exceeded expectations, rising to 8.1%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percentage points, with gross profit doubling to approximately RMB 800 million [1][3]. - The company is expected to exceed its annual sales target of 250,000 vehicles, with Q4 sales projected to surpass 110,000 units due to ongoing trade-in policies and new model launches [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q3, approximately 78.3% of the vehicles sold were from the C series, indicating an improved product mix. Monthly sales have shown consistent growth, with October sales reaching 38,177 units [2]. - The company plans to launch three new B series models in 2025, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales growth [2]. Production Capacity - The current production capacity at the Jinhua factory is nearly maxed out at around 40,000 units per month. A new factory in Hangzhou is under construction, aiming for production in the first half of 2025, with plans for a third factory to be operational by late 2025 or early 2026 [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates achieving a gross margin of over 5% for the full year, with Q1-Q3 gross margin averaging 4.8%. Projections for 2025 suggest an average gross margin of around 9% [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 32.24 billion, RMB 55.05 billion, and RMB 81.72 billion, respectively, with net profit margins expected to improve from -9% in 2024 to 2% in 2026 [4][10]. Market Expansion - The company has set an overseas sales target of 8,000 to 12,000 units for 2024, with plans for localized production in Europe by the end of 2025. The establishment of 339 dealerships in Europe has already surpassed initial targets [3][4].

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨中国建筑国际（3311.HK） [Table_Title] Q3 双位数高增长，香港大基建仍有广阔空间 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张弛 张智杰 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 中国建筑国际（3311.HK） cjzqdt11111 2024-11-08 [Table_BaseData] 当前股价（HKD） 11.52 注：股价为 2024 年 11 月 6 日收盘价 [Table_Title2] Q3 双位数高增长，香港大基建仍有广阔空间 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司公布三季报，2024 年前三季度合计营收约为 917.93 亿港元，同比增长 12.04%；2024 年 前三季度合计盈利约为 130.36 亿港元，同比增加 12.77%。 事件评论 ⚫ 营收持续两位数增长，在手项目充裕 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 收入超预期，自免管线顺利推进 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——诺诚健华 2024Q3 点评 | --- | |------------| | | | | | | | 2024.11.12 | | | | | | (9969) | | 医药 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------------------------|--------|--------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 丁丹 ( 分析师 ) | 甘坛焕 ( 分析师 ) | 付子阳 | ( 研究助理 | ) | | | | | 0755-23976735 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price of HKD 6.10, reflecting a potential upside of 29.1% from the current price of HKD 4.73 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its development strategy following the suspension of its plan to spin off its water supply and pipeline drinking water businesses, focusing on strengthening operational management to reduce capital expenditures. This shift is expected to lead to a decline in non-cash construction revenue contributions from the water supply and pipeline drinking water segments [1]. - The company has initiated price adjustment applications for over 20 water supply projects, which represent about one-third of its total water supply capacity. The price adjustments are anticipated to start reflecting in FY26 [2]. - The reduction in cash outflows for investment activities during FY25-27, along with favorable financing conditions due to declining domestic and international interest rates, is expected to provide the company with more room to increase its dividend payout ratio [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from HKD 12,859 million in FY24 to HKD 11,044 million in FY25, with a further decrease to HKD 10,991 million in FY26 and HKD 10,642 million in FY27, reflecting growth rates of 9.6%, -14.1%, -0.5%, and -3.2% respectively [5]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to decrease from HKD 1,534 million in FY24 to HKD 1,319 million in FY25, with slight recoveries to HKD 1,328 million in FY26 and HKD 1,307 million in FY27, showing growth rates of -17.4%, -14.0%, and 0.7% respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be HKD 0.94 in FY25, HKD 0.81 in FY26, and HKD 0.80 in FY27 [5][6]. Adjustments to Forecasts - The report has revised down the forecasts for shareholder net profit by 16.6% for FY25 and 23.3% for FY26, while introducing a new forecast for FY27 [2][6]. - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 6.30 to HKD 6.10, reflecting the updated market conditions and risk assessments [2].

隐证券 汽车/乘用车 公 司 研 究 以 ADAS 技术立身，造车卖车综合实力提升 小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK) 2024 年 11 月 12 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/11/11 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 59.550 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 74.300/25.500 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 1,130.97 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 1,130.96 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 18.99 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 18.99 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 59.92 | 股价走势图 -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 小鹏汽车-W 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《M03 新车周期启动，经营调整效益 逐步释放 —港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.23 《技术服务提供现金支撑，待管 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (386 HK) with a target price of HK$6.09, compared to the current price of HK$4.31 [1][4]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 236,654.1 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 44,247 million, down 16.5% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the net profit was RMB 8,544 million, reflecting a significant decline of 52.1% year-on-year [2][5]. - The decline in oil prices has adversely affected the company's profitability across all business segments, with Brent crude oil prices averaging USD 81.76, USD 85.03, and USD 78.71 per barrel in the first three quarters of 2024, leading to a general downturn in earnings [2][5]. Business Segment Summaries Exploration and Production - In Q3, the company achieved an oil and gas equivalent production of 128 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.68% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.37%. The revenue for this segment was RMB 69,620 million, down 6.09% year-on-year, with an operating profit of RMB 13,547 million, a slight decline of 1.62% quarter-on-quarter [12][2]. Refining - The refining segment reported a revenue of RMB 376,731 million in Q3, a decrease of 7.31% year-on-year, and an operating loss of RMB 539 million, marking the first quarterly loss of 2023. The drop in crude oil prices has increased operational pressures due to higher refining costs and inventory losses [14][3]. Chemicals - The chemical segment generated revenue of RMB 135,465 million in Q3, a slight increase of 0.45% year-on-year, but faced an operating loss of RMB 1,732 million. The segment has been under significant pressure since 2022, with the ethylene-naphtha spread remaining low at USD 191.37 per ton, well below the historical average of USD 425 per ton [17][19]. Marketing and Distribution - The marketing and distribution segment saw revenue of RMB 448,978 million in Q3, down 8.16% year-on-year, with an operating profit of RMB 2,589 million, a significant decline of 64.91% year-on-year [3][11]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of RMB 0.60, RMB 0.61, and RMB 0.63 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a BPS of RMB 6.92 for 2024. The reasonable valuation range is set between HK$5.54 and HK$6.09, corresponding to a PE of 10 times for 2024 [22][4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company has undergone a significant brand transformation and strategic focus on its core down jacket business, leading to substantial revenue and profit growth [10][15]. - The down jacket market in China has shown robust growth, with the company positioned to capture high-end market demand through product innovation and brand enhancement [15][24]. - The company has implemented a unique supply chain model that reduces inventory risk and enhances operational efficiency [43]. Summary by Sections Historical Review: The Rise and Renewal of the Company - The company, primarily engaged in down jacket production, has evolved through three main phases since its listing in 2007: diversification (2007-2013), product and channel adjustments (2014-2017), and a focus on its core business (2018-present) [10][11]. Multi-Dimensional Exploration of Brand Renewal - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in revenue and 41% in profit during its first three-year strategic transformation [15]. - The brand has focused on product diversification, channel optimization, and a refined supply chain to enhance operational efficiency [15][43]. Future Growth Drivers for the Brand - The down jacket market in China grew from 69.3 billion yuan in 2014 to 146.1 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 11.2% [15]. - The company is expanding into outdoor apparel and functional clothing, launching popular products like ski jackets and sun protection clothing [15][24]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan by 2025, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 11, and 10 for FY2025-2027, compared to the average of comparable companies [2][15].