Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is set to enhance its performance through the acquisition of high-quality assets, with a focus on wind and solar energy projects, which are expected to significantly contribute to its profitability in the future [2] - The acquisition involves cash purchases of controlling stakes in eight renewable energy companies, with a total installed capacity of 2.0329 million kilowatts, at a transaction price of 1.686 billion yuan [1][2] - The expected increase in net profit for the company due to the acquisition is approximately 1.46 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a 3% increase compared to 2023 [2] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire stakes in eight renewable energy companies, with a total installed capacity of 2.0329 million kilowatts, for a price of 1.686 billion yuan [1] - The acquisition is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 1.13 times, indicating reasonable pricing [1] Financial Performance - As of the first half of 2024, the company has a controlling wind power capacity of 28.35 GW and a photovoltaic capacity of 7.66 GW [2] - The expected net profit from the operational units acquired in the transaction is projected to be 1.41 billion yuan for the first half of 2024 [2] - The company's revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 40.662 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.951 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 4.77% compared to 2023 [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the green energy sector, with significant potential for future asset injections from its controlling shareholder, which holds approximately 40 GW of unlisted renewable energy assets [2] - The recent regulatory changes aimed at optimizing merger and acquisition processes are expected to enhance the company's valuation and market activity [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors [1][2] Core Views - Great Wall Motors' Q3 2024 core earnings align with estimates, and overseas sales growth is expected to support profitability in FY25 [1] - The company plans to launch seven new models in FY25, which may positively impact sales in the Chinese market [1] - The report anticipates a 29% year-on-year increase in overseas sales, targeting 580,000 units in FY25 [1][2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 3.4 billion, which was 5.7 billion lower than expected due to unexpected foreign exchange losses and delays in VAT refunds [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 have been raised from 1.3 million units to 1.36 million units, with a 3% growth expected in China due to new model launches [2] - The net profit forecast for FY25 has been increased by 7% to RMB 14 billion, while the FY24 net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% [2] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 14.00 to HKD 17.00, reflecting improved market sentiment [2][4] Performance Metrics - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 204,470 in FY24 to 236,000 in FY25, and further to 258,850 in FY26 [3][10] - Net profit is expected to increase from 12,768 in FY24 to 14,023 in FY25, and then to 13,887 in FY26 [3][10] - The gross margin is projected to be 20.0% in FY24, improving to 20.3% in FY25, before slightly declining to 19.7% in FY26 [8][10] Market Position - Great Wall Motors aims to enhance its overseas market presence through local assembly plants and expects stable profit margins in overseas markets despite increasing competition by FY26 [1][2] - The company is focusing on launching new models in the electric vehicle segment, which is seen as crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the evolving automotive landscape [1][2]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Great Wall Motor with a target price raised from HK$14.00 to HK$17.00, indicating an upside potential of 18.2% from the current price of HK$14.38 [2][3]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motor's 3Q24 core earnings were in line with estimates, with revenue about 5% higher than previous forecasts, although net profit was impacted by unexpected foreign exchange losses and VAT refund delays [2]. - The company is expected to achieve overseas sales growth of 29% YoY in FY25E, supported by new models and increased local content [2]. - A decline in sales volume in China is anticipated for FY24E, but the introduction of seven new models in FY25E could revitalize sales [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 173,212 million in FY23A to RMB 204,470 million in FY24E, reflecting an 18.0% YoY growth [1]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly from RMB 7,021.6 million in FY23A to RMB 12,768.3 million in FY24E, marking an 81.8% increase [1]. - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 20.0% in FY24E, with a slight narrowing expected in FY26E due to increased competition in overseas markets [2]. Earnings Revisions - FY25E net profit forecast has been revised up by 7% to RMB 14 billion, while FY24E net profit has been cut by 5% due to the earnings miss in 3Q24 [2][5]. - Sales volume forecast for FY25E has been increased from 1.3 million units to 1.36 million units, indicating a 3% growth in China [2]. Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.5x in FY23A to 9.1x in FY24E, reflecting improved earnings expectations [1][7]. - The dividend yield is expected to rise from 2.2% in FY23A to 3.9% in FY24E, indicating a more attractive return for investors [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$70 00, implying a 10 3% upside from the current price of HK$63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported **3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY**, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - **Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY**, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - **Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY**, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's **overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September**, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's **Labubu plush toy**, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **2024E revenue** is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with **2026E revenue** projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - **EBITDA for 2024E** is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with **2026E EBITDA** expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - **EPS for 2024E** is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with **2026E EPS** projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a **25X P/E multiple** (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - **Mainland China sales by channel**: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - **Overseas sales** accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - **Gross profit margin (GPM)** for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at **24X 2025E P/E**, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights **strong IP momentum** and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of **US$26.4/HK$52** per ADR/H-share, based on **18x CY2025E P/E** [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report **21% YoY growth in Group sales** to **RMB4.58bn** in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - **China sales** are expected to grow by **8% YoY**, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - **Overseas sales** are projected to grow by **40% YoY**, with **DTC markets** up **55% YoY** and **distributor markets** accelerating to **28% YoY growth** [1][4] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to grow by **51% YoY**, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - **Mainland China sales** are forecasted at **RMB2.49bn**, growing **8% YoY**, decelerating from **18% YoY** in 2Q24 [4] - **Overseas sales** are expected to reach **RMB1.8bn**, with **DTC markets** contributing **55% YoY growth** and **distributor markets** growing **28% YoY** [4] - **Top Toy brand** sales are projected to reach **RMB272mn**, with a **33% GPM**, reflecting a **4pp QoQ expansion** due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - **Group GPM** is expected to expand by **4pp YoY**, driven by a higher mix of **overseas DTC** and **Top Toy margin improvement** [1] - **Adjusted OPM** is forecasted to decline by **2pp YoY** to **19%**, due to near-term investments in **US store expansion** and **24H Super stores** [1] - **Adjusted net income** is expected to grow by **9% YoY** to **RMB696mn**, with a **15.2% adjusted NPM** [5] Store Expansion - **Miniso brand** is expected to add **105 net stores** in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching **4,220 stores** by the end of the quarter [3] - **Overseas store openings** are projected at **180 net stores** in 3Q24, with a full-year target of **550-650 stores** [3] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to reach **235 stores** by 3Q24, with **40 net openings** in the quarter and a full-year target of **112 stores** [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the **launch of Harry Potter IP** and the **upcoming holiday season**, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential **tax credits** for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has reported better-than-expected earnings, with a projected net profit growth of 140-145% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024, amounting to approximately 330-340 million USD [1]. - The growth in net profit is attributed to the normalization of the global footwear market and a significant increase in demand for the company's shoe products from brand clients [1]. - The company is balancing demand with order scheduling and has implemented an orderly overtime plan to support net profit growth, alongside steady capacity increases throughout the year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s manufacturing revenue growth for the first nine months of 2024 shows a positive trend, with monthly growth rates of 13%, -12%, 0%, +3%, +8%, +3%, +22%, +21%, and +27% [1]. - The report indicates that after previous years of pandemic and inventory destocking, the leading footwear supply chain is regaining its growth momentum [1]. Market Position - Adidas has raised its full-year revenue guidance, which is expected to benefit the company as a key supplier in Adidas' footwear supply chain [1]. - The report expresses optimism regarding Adidas' recovery, suggesting that the improved guidance reinforces the operational cycle of major brands and restores growth momentum [1]. Earnings Forecast - Based on the performance in Q1-Q3 2024, the earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 8.65 billion USD, 9.645 billion USD, and 10.935 billion USD for FY24-26 [1]. - The projected net profits for these years are 430 million USD, 480 million USD, and 530 million USD, respectively, which are higher than previous estimates [1]. - The expected EPS for FY24-26 is revised to 0.27 USD, 0.30 USD, and 0.33 USD per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 7X, 6X, and 6X [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company shows resilience in new business growth despite concerns over revenue deceleration due to a low base. Profit margins are expected to gradually recover in Q3 and Q4 as the pace of capacity expansion slows [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25Q1, the company reported revenue of $1.435 billion, a 30.5% increase year-over-year. The education segment generated $1.278 billion, up 33.5%, aligning with market expectations [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was $300 million, reflecting a 23% increase, with a profit margin of 20.9%, down 1.3 percentage points. The education segment's operating profit was $303 million, up 58.4%, with a profit margin of 24%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached $265 million, a 40% increase, with a profit margin of 18.4%, up 1.2 percentage points [2]. Business Segments - The growth rates for various business segments in FY25Q1 were as follows: exam preparation +19%, consulting +21%, domestic university training +30%, and new businesses +50%. Concerns arose from a slight downward adjustment in the growth rates of high-end study abroad services and high school 1v1 tutoring [2]. - The company maintains its expectation of a 30% revenue growth rate and a 1 percentage point increase in profit margin for the education segment for the full year [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its network with a capacity growth target of 20-25% for the year. The pace of new store openings is expected to stabilize, which should lead to a gradual recovery in profit margins in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - The guidance for FY25Q2 indicates education segment revenue between $851 million and $872 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 25-28%, which is below the market's expectation of 30% [2].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating it is expected to benefit from the recovery in the industry and the ongoing high-end strategy [2][80]. Core Viewpoints - China Resources Beer has established itself as the largest beer company in China, with a significant focus on high-end products through its "3+3+3" strategy initiated in 2017 [1][15]. - The company has diversified into the liquor sector, enhancing its brand power and market presence through strategic acquisitions [1][23]. - The beer industry is stabilizing in volume while prices are expected to increase, particularly in the high-end segment, which presents substantial growth opportunities [1][2]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a high concentration of market share among the top five companies, with a CR5 of 92% in 2023 [1][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beer was founded in 1993 and has rapidly grown to become the largest beer producer in China, with beer sales reaching 11.15 million kiloliters in 2023 [1]. - The company has undergone several phases of development, including a focus on high-end product offerings and operational efficiency improvements since 2017 [1][15]. Beer Industry Analysis - The beer production peaked in 2013 and has stabilized since 2018, with expectations for future production to remain steady due to demographic trends [1][2]. - The high-end market segment is projected to continue expanding, particularly in the 6-10 RMB price range, which is seen as having the most growth potential [1][2]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with the top five companies holding a significant market share, indicating a concentrated market structure [1][46]. Brand and Product Strategy - The company has developed a "4+4" high-end brand matrix, combining local and international brands to cater to diverse consumer segments [1][15]. - The product portfolio covers all price ranges, with a strong emphasis on high-end products that have shown significant sales growth [1][59]. - The company has successfully launched several key products aimed at younger consumers, enhancing its market appeal [1][63]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 38.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with beer and liquor revenues contributing 36.86 billion and 2.07 billion RMB, respectively [1][3]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is expected to grow steadily, with projected figures of 5.28 billion, 5.87 billion, and 6.38 billion RMB, respectively [2][80]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a strong gross margin, benefiting from cost reductions in raw materials and operational efficiencies [2][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price of HKD 4.72, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Tianli International has issued 9.4 million stock options with an exercise price of HKD 4.72, which is higher than the current market price of HKD 4.55, signaling confidence in the company's future growth and market value [1]. - The company is in a rapid growth phase, focusing on talent retention and motivation as key drivers for its development in the education sector [1]. - Recent achievements in academic competitions highlight the effectiveness of Tianli's educational strategies, with multiple schools under its umbrella receiving top awards [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: HKD 4.71 - 6-Month Rating: Buy (maintained) - Target Price: HKD 4.72 [1] Company Performance - The issuance of stock options at a price above the current market price reflects the company's commitment to its future growth and shareholder confidence [1]. - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 9,964.73 million and a total share capital of 2,115.65 million shares [1]. Competitive Achievements - Tianli's students have excelled in national academic competitions, with over 60 students winning provincial-level first prizes in recent years [1]. - The company has developed a comprehensive training and selection system for top talent, integrating various educational stages to enhance student performance [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 47.5 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion USD for FY25Q1, representing a 31% year-on-year increase. Excluding the revenue from Dongfang Zhenxuan's self-operated products and live e-commerce, the revenue growth was 34% [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 250 million USD, up 48% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 260 million USD, reflecting a 40% increase [1][2]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency to improve profitability while balancing growth and sustainability [1]. Financial Performance - The operating profit for the quarter was 290 million USD, a 43% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 300 million USD, up 23% [1]. - The company reported a GAAP operating profit margin of 23.7%, an increase of 370 basis points year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 24.4%, up 220 basis points [2]. - The company generated a net operating cash flow of 183.2 million USD for the quarter, with total cash and cash equivalents amounting to approximately 4.9 billion USD at the end of the quarter [2]. Growth Projections - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for FY25-27, expecting revenues of 5.2 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7.5 billion USD respectively, with adjusted net profits of 560 million, 770 million, and 1.06 billion USD for the same periods [2].