Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.7 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.5%, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.5% [1]. - The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of 14.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, down 0.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company declared a total dividend of 0.5848 RMB per share for the year, with a payout ratio of 50% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - By brand, the total number of stores at the end of 2024 was 7,585, a decrease of 83 from the beginning of the year. The main brand, Li Ning, saw a reduction of 123 stores to 6,117, while Li Ning Young increased by 40 stores to 1,468 [2]. - In terms of channels, wholesale revenue reached 13 billion RMB, up 3% year-on-year; direct sales revenue was 6.9 billion RMB, slightly down by 0.3%; and e-commerce revenue was 8.3 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The company focuses on six core categories: running, basketball, fitness, badminton, table tennis, and sports lifestyle, with new product retail sales accounting for 85% of overall offline sales [3]. - Running sales increased by 25%, with over 10.6 million pairs sold from three new running shoe series. The company upgraded its "SOFT" technology matrix, enhancing product performance while ensuring comfort [3]. - Basketball sales decreased by 21%, with plans to promote street basketball culture through events in multiple cities [3]. Cost Management and Inventory - The gross margin for 2024 was 49.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point, attributed to a higher proportion of sales from the more profitable e-commerce channel and improved discounts in offline stores [5]. - Sales expenses rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 9.2 billion RMB, mainly due to increased market expansion efforts and brand promotion [5]. - Inventory turnover across all channels was maintained at a healthy level of four months, with channel inventory increasing in high units year-on-year [5]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 29.5 billion RMB, 31.7 billion RMB, and 34 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 2.8 billion RMB, 3 billion RMB, and 3.2 billion RMB [10].

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 业绩符合预期，期待原奶周期反转 [Table_Title2] 现代牧业(1117.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1117 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 0.91/0.63 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 90.24 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 1.14 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 90.24 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 7,915.66 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24FY 实现营业收入 132.5 亿元，同比-1.5%，实现股东应占亏损 14.7 亿元，去年同期为实现盈利 1.9 亿元。据此推算，公司 24H2 实现营业收入 68.4 亿元，同比基本持平，实现股东应占亏损 12.6 亿元，去年同 期为亏损 0.3 亿元。公司业绩表现符合之前盈利预警预期。 分析判断: ► ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][10][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][4][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13][14]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profits are expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13][14]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 70.90 and a low of HKD 35.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 60,342.20 million. The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 24.62% [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177) [3][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated impressive performance, with innovative product revenue continuing to rise and significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 28.87 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and a net profit of 3.5 billion RMB, which is a 50.1% increase year-on-year [8]. - The revenue from innovative products reached 12.06 billion RMB in 2024, a 21.9% increase year-on-year, accounting for 41.8% of total revenue [8]. - The company is expected to see multiple new drug approvals in 2025, which will further drive revenue growth [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 28.78 billion RMB, decreased to 26.19 billion RMB in 2023, and is projected to increase to 28.87 billion RMB in 2024, with further growth expected in subsequent years [7]. - The gross profit for 2024 is estimated at 23.53 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 81.5%, showing a slight increase from the previous year [8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 34.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 33.5% increase year-on-year [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.80, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% from the current price of HKD 5.06 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was negatively impacted by the procurement of Domperidone, but there is a noticeable improvement in the neurology segment. The raw material drug business continues to face slight pressure. It is anticipated that the impact of Domperidone procurement will stabilize entering 2025, with new product launches expected to drive revenue growth [2][6]. - The current forward P/E ratio is 11 times, with an estimated profit CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2027, suggesting that the valuation is reasonable with limited upside potential [2][6]. - The company is expected to launch seven new products or indications in 2025, including significant approvals in the U.S. for certain drugs, which will help offset losses from procurement [6][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 29.6 billion, a slight decrease of 1.0% from previous estimates. The gross profit is forecasted at RMB 20.87 billion, reflecting a 3.8% decline [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 4.75 billion, down 4.4% from prior forecasts, with a net profit margin of 16.1% [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue for 2025, driven by stabilized inventory levels and the rapid market penetration of new products [6][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of +5.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 7.12 and a low of HKD 4.34 [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 214.03 million shares, indicating active trading interest [5][11]. Valuation Metrics - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at approximately RMB 60.89 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 5.80 [7][11]. - The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 11 times for 2025, with a PEG ratio of 1.0, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that despite a projected revenue growth of 9% for 2024, the second half of the year may see an 11% decline in revenue due to pressures from DRG/DIP nationwide promotion and slow reimbursement in certain regions. However, the company has shown resilience in outpatient services, with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 16-21% and 21-27% respectively. The new revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 4,987 million, down from RMB 5,922 million, while the net profit forecast is reduced to RMB 743 million from RMB 936 million [6][7]. - The report provides detailed financial projections, including a projected revenue of RMB 5,527 million for 2026 and RMB 6,291 million for 2027, with corresponding net profits of RMB 853 million and RMB 1,033 million [13]. Business Growth Drivers - New hospital openings and expansions are expected to provide growth momentum. The company has completed the acceptance and opening of a tertiary hospital in Dezhou, with additional hospitals in Wuxi and Changshu expected to open by the end of this year and next year respectively [7][8]. - The company is exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance payment environment, including internet hospitals and self-funded services related to innovative drugs, which are anticipated to have long-term growth potential [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 7.02 and a 6-month rating of "Increase" [5][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 43.99 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.08 billion, up 518.7% year-on-year, while the core net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 30.38 billion, down 22.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.1352 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.1609 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 54.7%. It also intends to use at least RMB 500 million of its available cash reserves for share buybacks in the coming year, emphasizing shareholder returns [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 19.1%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from 2023. The net profit margin improved to 4.26%, an increase of 3.05 percentage points from the previous year. The selling and administrative expense ratio rose by 1.08 percentage points to 10.95% [3]. - The cash flow from operating activities was RMB 3.87 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, but showed significant improvement compared to the mid-year figure of RMB 270 million, mainly due to proactive collection of receivables [3][4]. Business Segments - Revenue from property management, community value-added services, and the "Three Supplies and One Industry" business grew by 4.9%, 11.8%, and 30.9% year-on-year, respectively. However, revenue from non-owner value-added services, urban services, and commercial operations declined by 54.6%, 14.7%, and 38.1% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company expanded its managed area to approximately 1.037 billion square meters by the end of 2024, an increase of 8.36% year-on-year, with 7,895 management projects, up by 550 from the previous year [4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 2.22 billion and RMB 2.76 billion, respectively, and introduced a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 2.79 billion, maintaining the "Increase" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][19] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 32.16 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, benefiting from a recovery in the capital market [5][8] - The return on equity (ROE) improved by 2.2 percentage points to 13.0% [5] - The company’s total investment yield reached 5.5%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total insurance premium income of 538.06 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [6] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) increased by 1.0 percentage point to 98.8%, with a claims ratio of 73.0%, slightly higher than expected due to major disasters [6][9] - The underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% to 5.71 billion RMB [6] Investment Analysis - The company has significantly increased its allocation to government bonds and stocks, with a 10.4 percentage point increase in government bonds to 18.2% and a 1.2 percentage point increase in stocks to 7.2% [6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34.95 billion RMB, 38.99 billion RMB, and 44.29 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [7][8] Market Position - The company is positioned as a high-dividend core stock within the insurance sector, maintaining a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.06x as of March 28 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenue of HKD 2.401 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted to be HKD 438 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.3% [1] - The company is expanding its subscription business into new emerging fields, contributing HKD 1.104 billion in revenue, which is 46.0% of total revenue [1] - The value-added services segment is also growing, with revenue of HKD 1.298 billion, accounting for 54.0% of total revenue [2] Summary by Sections Subscription Business - The subscription business is deepening its application in various scenarios, achieving revenue of HKD 1.104 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.1 [1] - The company is expanding its service boundaries to include live streaming, micro-short dramas, music, e-commerce images, and online novels [1] Value-Added Services - The value-added services segment continues to see contract upgrades, generating revenue of HKD 1.298 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - The launch of the Vobile MAX digital asset trading platform integrates video rights confirmation, blockchain, and Web3 technologies [2] Market Performance - North America shows strong growth, with revenue of HKD 1.184 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, accounting for approximately 49.3% of total revenue [3] - Domestic revenue reached HKD 1.188 billion, growing by 18.6% year-on-year, representing 49.5% of total revenue [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 2.940 billion, HKD 3.640 billion, and HKD 4.740 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 3.2, 2.6, and 2.0 [4]

24 年业绩符合预期，25 年起加大投入追求 中长期高质量发展 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩公告，我们调整 24-26 年盈利预测，预计 24-26 年 EPS 分别为 1.17、0.99 和 1.15 元（原 1.2、1.37 和 1.54 元），参考可比公司，给予 2025 年 20 倍的 PE 估 值，目标价为 21.19 港币（1 人民币=1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：运动服饰消费低于预期、终端去库存进度和新产品推广不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25,803 | 27,598 | 28,676 | 28,945 | 31,317 | | 同比增长 (%) | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,415 | 4,256 | 4,110 | 3,462 | 4,033 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -21 ...