Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) [3] Core Views - Pop Mart's overseas business has entered a rapid development phase with a focus on the DTC (Direct To Customer) model, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue [1] - The company's overseas revenue in H1 2024 increased by 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 351 billion, accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Southeast Asia is the fastest-growing market, with revenue increasing by 478 3% YoY to RMB 556 million in H1 2024 [1] Channels - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its offline stores and robot stores overseas, with 92 stores and 162 robot stores as of June 2024 [1] - The company adopts a "platform + independent station" strategy for online channels, leveraging third-party platforms and building its own independent sites to strengthen brand influence [1] Operations - Pop Mart focuses on product customization and localized promotion, collaborating with international brands and local artists to enhance cultural integration [1] - The company actively operates on international social media platforms and collaborates with KOLs to promote its products [1] Supply Chain - Pop Mart has established overseas bonded warehouses in Southeast Asia and North America, supporting its global supply chain system [1] - The company has achieved a stable inventory level of around RMB 900 million in H1 2024, despite high overseas sales growth [1] Market Potential - The global toy market is expanding, with the Southeast Asian market showing strong growth potential due to its young population and cultural similarities with China [1] - Pop Mart's focus on Southeast Asia is expected to drive long-term growth, leveraging the region's market potential and demographic dividend [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with overseas revenue projected to reach RMB 5 149 billion in 2024, representing a 383% YoY increase [1] - Pop Mart's net profit is forecasted to grow by 117 5% YoY in 2024, reaching RMB 2 354 billion [1] Valuation - The report estimates Pop Mart's target market value at RMB 90 5 billion for 2025, corresponding to a 30x PE ratio, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.993 billion HKD for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2%, with a net profit of 9.270 billion HKD, which is a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year. The growth is attributed to economic stimulus measures from mainland China and global central banks adopting monetary easing policies, leading to improved investment sentiment [4][10] - The average daily trading volume for the stock market has reached new highs, with the Northbound and Southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect averaging 123.3 billion HKD and 38.3 billion HKD respectively, showing increases of 14.0% and 19.3% year-on-year [4] - The company maintains a reasonable valuation range of 353.20 to 368.20 HKD, with estimated revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 22.917 billion HKD, 24.885 billion HKD, and 26.848 billion HKD respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% [4][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.372 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while net profit was 3.145 billion HKD, up 7% year-on-year [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for the first three quarters was 18.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Trading Activity - The cash market segment generated revenue of 6.351 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, accounting for 40% of total revenue. The average daily trading amount in the cash market increased by 3% to 113.3 billion HKD [4] - The derivatives market saw a record number of contracts traded, with a total of 1.516 million contracts in Q3, marking a 12% increase year-on-year [4] Project and Investment Income - The company’s project income for the first three quarters was 1.466 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, with internal investment income of 1.408 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [4] - The annualized investment return was 5.48%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [4] Valuation and Estimates - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 10.32 HKD, 11.22 HKD, and 12.07 HKD respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.2 to 35.7 for 2024 [10][13]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company has turned a profit after previously being in the red, with a net profit of $32.524 million in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of $8.952 million in the same period last year [1] - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was $2.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with a gross margin of 20.4%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit margin is 1.6%, and the operating profit margin is 5.5% [1] - The company's management has provided guidance for full-year revenue growth in the high single digits, with gross margin expected to increase by 2.1 percentage points [1] - The company is advancing its "3+3" strategy, focusing on three key industries (EV, 5G AIoT, Audio) and three core technologies (copper to optical, wired to wireless, components to system products) [1] - The company plans to increase the revenue contribution from its "3+3" strategy to 30% in 2024 and 40% in 2025 [1] - The company's network infrastructure business is expected to benefit from NVIDIA's AI server and optical module development [1] - The company has secured orders from NVIDIA for compute trays, with a total value in the billions [1] - The company recently completed the acquisition of 70% of Huayun Optoelectronics to enhance its R&D capabilities in high-speed networks and optical markets [1] - The company is collaborating with MediaTek to develop CPO sockets, which will provide low-power solutions for AI servers [1] - The company's EV business is expected to grow by more than 50% for the full year, benefiting from synergies from acquisitions [1] - The company's Belkin brand business is expected to generate revenue of $700-800 million this year, with stable revenue and improving gross margins [1] Industry and Market Performance - The company operates in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) industry [1] - The company's stock price is currently at HKD 2.98, with a market capitalization of HKD 21.724 billion [1] - The company's 52-week high/low is HKD 3.95/HKD 0.88 [1] Strategic Developments - The company has been actively integrating resources through mergers and acquisitions, such as acquiring Belkin and Prettl SWH (renamed Voltaira) [1] - The company's network infrastructure business is expected to benefit from NVIDIA's AI server developments, with management raising guidance for network infrastructure revenue growth from mid-double digits to high double digits [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the EV market, particularly through its involvement in Tesla's supply chain and the production of CPD products [1] - The company is also working on developing 800G DR8 and SR8/DR8 optical products, with completion expected by the end of 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][18]. Core Views - The report highlights the official release of HarmonyOS NEXT (pure Harmony) and the dual-driven growth of the Harmony ecosystem through both pure and open-source Harmony, which is expected to drive performance growth [4][5][18]. - The report emphasizes the significant market potential for pure Harmony, with the company being a diamond service provider for native Harmony application development and training, benefiting from the ecosystem's expansion [4][11][18]. - The report notes the recovery of Huawei's smartphone market share, which is accelerating the development of the Harmony system, making it the second-largest operating system in China [6][9][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been involved in the development of the Harmony operating system since 2012 and became one of the first HarmonyOS development service providers in March 2024, with over 50,000 certified Harmony engineers and more than 7,000 native Harmony applications and services launched [11][18]. Market Trends - The report discusses the transition to an interconnected world, with the number of global IoT device connections expected to reach 24.6 billion by 2025, indicating a shift from mobile devices to a broader range of smart devices [6][8]. Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 18.03 billion, 20.20 billion, and 22.29 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 5.3%, 12.0%, and 10.3% [4][18]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 721 million, 866 million, and 1.09 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 13 times [4][18]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has a deep partnership with ShenKaiHong, focusing on developing industry solutions based on open-source Harmony, which is expected to gradually release performance [13][14][18]. Technological Innovations - The report outlines three core technological concepts of the Harmony system: "one-time development, multi-end deployment," "modular and flexible integration," and "unified ecosystem with native intelligence," which enhance user experience across various scenarios [8][9][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175.HK) with a target price range of HKD 16.5-18.9, compared to the current price of HKD 13.90 [1][5][9]. Core Views - Geely's electric and intelligent transformation is accelerating with the launch of the Zeekr MIX, which targets young families seeking innovative and spacious electric vehicles. The estimated market potential for this model is around 500,000 units annually [1][5]. - The report anticipates significant growth in Geely's sales and profitability over the next few years, driven by the introduction of new models and the company's strategic resource allocation [1][5]. - The expected sales volume for Geely from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 2.17 million, 2.55 million, and 2.86 million units, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 29%, 17%, and 12% [1][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: HKD 179.2 billion - 2024E: HKD 237.3 billion (32.4% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 296.1 billion (24.8% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 340.6 billion (15.0% YoY growth) [1][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: HKD 5.2 billion - 2024E: HKD 15.1 billion (191.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 11.8 billion (-21.4% YoY decline) - 2026E: HKD 15.1 billion (27.2% YoY growth) [1][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024E: HKD 0.51 - 2025E: HKD 1.49 - 2026E: HKD 1.18 [1][6]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024E: 8.9 - 2025E: 11.3 - 2026E: 8.9 [1][6]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2024E: 1.7 - 2025E: 1.4 - 2026E: 1.2 [1][6]. Market Positioning - Geely is positioned to benefit from its comprehensive resource layout in global operations, self-developed intelligent driving, and chip technology, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (9901.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of $1.435 billion for Q1 FY2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.5%, with a net profit of $245 million, up 48.4% year-over-year [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q1 was $300 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22.6% [1] - The non-selective business revenue grew by 33.5% year-over-year, indicating strong performance in new business segments [1] - The company expects Q2 non-selective business revenue to increase by 25-28% year-over-year, aligning with previous expectations [1] - The company has a robust expansion plan, with a target of increasing offline teaching points by 20-25% throughout the year [1] - The report forecasts non-selective business revenues for FY2025-2027 to be $4.416 billion, $5.536 billion, and $6.697 billion respectively, with Non-GAAP operating profits of $539 million, $731 million, and $938 million [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 FY2025 total revenue: $1.435 billion, up 30.5% YoY - Net profit: $245 million, up 48.4% YoY - Non-GAAP operating profit: $300 million, up 22.6% YoY [1] Business Segments - Non-selective business revenue: $1.278 billion, up 33.5% YoY - Growth in new business segments, particularly non-academic courses and intelligent learning systems [1] Future Outlook - Q2 revenue guidance for non-selective business: $851.4 million to $871.8 million, up 25-28% YoY - Continued growth expected in new business segments and stable performance in core education services [1] Expansion Strategy - Offline teaching points increased to 1,089, with a quarterly growth of 6% - National network advantages are strengthening with significant presence in major cities [1] Earnings Forecast - Projected adjusted EPS for FY2025-2027: $0.34, $0.44, and $0.55 respectively - Corresponding P/E ratios: 18x, 14x, and 11x [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso [2] Core Views - The report anticipates that overseas agency growth will exceed expectations in Q3 2024, while domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected. The continued expansion of overseas stores is expected to contribute positively in Q4 [2] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the company for 2024-2026 have been lowered to 2.751 billion, 3.342 billion, and 4.023 billion HKD respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.869 billion, 3.448 billion, and 4.132 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 47.40 HKD from 49.60 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The report estimates an overall revenue growth of approximately 18.3% for Q3 2024, translating to an expected revenue of about 4.484 billion HKD. Domestic revenue growth is projected at around 7.0%, while overseas direct and agency market growth rates are expected to be 55% and 28% respectively [2] - The contribution of high-margin overseas direct business is expected to increase, leading to improvements in gross margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] Store Expansion - The company is expected to add over 100 new stores domestically and 150-200 stores overseas in Q3 2024, aligning with the annual store opening plan of 350-450 domestic stores and 550-650 overseas stores [2] - The launch of Harry Potter IP co-branded products is anticipated to drive sales in both domestic and overseas markets, enhancing the willingness of franchisees to open stores and agents to purchase products [2] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the overall gross margin is likely to improve due to the increasing proportion of high-margin products and the release of operational leverage as overseas direct business performance improves [2] - The expected sales and management expense ratio for Q3 2024 is projected at 26.10%, with an adjusted net profit margin of approximately 15.5%, leading to an adjusted net profit of about 694 million HKD [2]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 商业贸易 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 24 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 2.76 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7359.14 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 6.96/2.11 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 171.15 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,201.22 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0899 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -51% -1% 49% HSCEI 滔搏 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 (8621)23 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 88 10 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue exceeded market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125% Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% [1] - The company's overseas expansion is accelerating with new stores opened in key markets such as South Korea Italy the Netherlands France and the US contributing to revenue growth [1] - Pop Mart's core IPs like MOLLY SKULLPANDA DIMOO and The MONSTERS continue to drive product innovation and sales growth [1] - The company's online revenue particularly through platforms like TikTok Shop and Tmall has shown significant growth with TikTok Shop achieving a record single-session sales of USD 280 000 [1] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's total revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 12 253 million a 93 1% increase from 2023A [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 2 711 million in 2024E up 150 5% from 2023A [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve to 66 3% in 2024E from 61 3% in 2023A [6] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0 80 in 2023A to RMB 2 02 in 2024E [2] Market Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue growth is driven by both store expansion and improved store efficiency with the number of overseas stores expected to reach 130-140 by the end of 2024 [1] - The company's strategy of localizing products and adopting a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has been effective in penetrating international markets [1] Product and IP Strategy - Pop Mart continues to innovate with new IPs such as OIPIPPI Nyota CHAKA inosoul and POLAR which have contributed to revenue growth [1] - The company is expanding its product categories including building blocks and exploring new business areas like theme parks and games to enhance the value of its core IPs [1] Valuation and Projections - The report forecasts Pop Mart's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 2 711 million RMB 3 601 million and RMB 4 458 million respectively [1] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 34 5x in 2024E to 21 0x in 2026E reflecting strong earnings growth [2] Key Financial Metrics - Pop Mart's total assets are projected to grow from RMB 9 969 million in 2023A to RMB 23 348 million in 2026E [6] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from RMB 1 991 million in 2024E to RMB 3 644 million in 2026E [6] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 14 7% in 2023A to 29 7% in 2024E indicating improved profitability [6]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for TCL Electronics (01070) [1] Core Views - TCL Electronics' global TV shipments in Q3 2024 reached 7.49 million units, a YoY increase of 19.7%, with Q1-Q3 global shipments at 20.01 million units, up 12.9% YoY [1] - MiniLED TV shipments surged 163% globally, benefiting ASP growth [1] - Domestic shipments in Q3 increased by 5%, while overseas shipments grew by 24% [1] - MiniLED domestic shipments in Q1-Q3 rose 181% YoY, with a significant 6.9 percentage point increase in market share [1] - Overseas MiniLED shipments in Q1-Q3 grew 145% YoY, with Europe leading at 36% growth, followed by North America at 8% and emerging markets at 6% [1] - Panel price pressures are expected to ease, with 55-inch and 65-inch panel prices stabilizing in Q3 2024, supporting margin improvement [1] - Profit forecasts have been revised upward, with expected revenue of HKD 95.5/107.8/119.9 billion for 2024-2026, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.35/1.65/2.0 billion [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at HKD 95.476 billion, a 21% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach HKD 1.35 billion, up 81% YoY [3] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 4.45% in 2023A to 7.66% in 2024E and 8.78% in 2025E [3] - EPS is expected to grow from HKD 0.31 in 2023A to HKD 0.54 in 2024E, HKD 0.65 in 2025E, and HKD 0.79 in 2026E [3] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 18.05% in 2024E, with net profit margin improving to 1.41% [5] Market and Operational Trends - TCL Electronics has shown strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with significant contributions from MiniLED technology [1] - The company's dual-brand strategy (TCL + Leihua) has been effective in maintaining market share and driving growth in domestic markets [1] - Overseas markets, particularly Europe and North America, have shown robust growth, with North America experiencing a turnaround in Q3 2024 [1] - Cost pressures from panel price increases are expected to ease, supporting profitability improvements [1]