珠宝首饰及钟表 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 增持-A(维持) 2025Q3 珠宝业务营收、业绩实现高速增长，品牌影响力持续强化 2025 年 11 月 3 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 10 月 30 日，公司发布 2025 年 3 季报。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营收 62.37 亿 元，同比增长 28.35%，实现归母净利润 3.17 亿元，同比增长 0.33%，实现扣非净利润 3.14 亿元，同比增长 1.25%。 事件点评 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 市场数据：2025 年 10 月 31 日 收盘价（元）： 13.54 年内最高/最低（元）： 18.18/4.68 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 8.67/8.89 2025Q3，营收增长提速、业绩（剔除商誉减值后）高速增长。营收端，2025 年前 三季度，公司实现营收 62.37 亿元，同比增长 28.35%。其中，25Q1-25Q3 分别实现营 收 22.52 亿元、18.50 亿元、21.35 亿元，同比增长 25.36%、13.13%、49.52%。业绩 端，2025年前三季度，公司实现归母净利润3.17亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth in advanced electronic materials and battery materials, driven by increasing demand from AI servers and the rising penetration of new energy battery materials [5]. - The company has shown robust growth in synthetic resin sales and continues to expand its product categories, effectively responding to market changes [4]. - The company is enhancing its production capacity, with several projects underway that are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue and profit growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 760 million yuan, up 30.81% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.722 billion yuan, a 7.75% increase year-on-year, but a 5.89% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3]. Product and Market Development - The company’s synthetic resin sales reached 588,700 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 13.90% year-on-year increase, with sales revenue of 4.096 billion yuan, up 4.64% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and expanding its product applications in various sectors, including phenolic resin and casting materials [4]. Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - The company is expanding its production capacity for advanced electronic materials and battery materials, with several projects expected to be completed by Q3 2026 [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through convertible bonds, with 2 billion yuan allocated for the industrialization of green new energy battery materials, projected to generate significant annual revenue and profit [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.786 billion yuan, 13.049 billion yuan, and 14.216 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.181 billion yuan, 1.449 billion yuan, and 1.681 billion yuan [8][10].

上 市 公 司 轻工制造 2025 年 11 月 03 日 共创草坪 (605099) 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： ——25Q3 利润表现亮眼，订单拐点确定，全球化基地布 局对冲贸易风险 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,952 | 2,474 | 3,441 | 4,012 | 4,685 | | 同比增长率（%） | 19.9 | 9.5 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 511 | 515 | 677 | 791 | 932 | | 同比增长率（%） | 18.6 | 30.9 | 32.3 | 17.0 | 17.8 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.68 | 1.97 | 2.32 | | 毛利率（%） | 30.0 | 34.0 | 32.3 | 32.6 | 32.8 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported significant improvement in profitability, with a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 960 million yuan, up 43.5% year-on-year [6][10]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.9%. The net profit for Q3 was 430 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.3% [6][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with significant phosphate rock capacity. It has an annual capacity of 3 million tons of phosphate rock and various other phosphate products [13]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q3 were 32.7% and 18.8%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.0 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points [13]. - The average prices of major products in Q3 showed year-on-year changes of 21.3% for calcium dihydrogen phosphate, 1.6% for industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, and 0.7% for phosphoric acid [13]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue expanding its phosphate chemical industry chain and improve its supply chain stability. The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.33 billion yuan, 1.52 billion yuan, and 1.69 billion yuan, respectively [13].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨博源化工（000683.SZ） [Table_Title] 拟收购银根矿业部分少数股权，天然碱龙头乘风 破浪 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报，Q1-Q3 实现收入 86.6 亿元（同比-16.5%），实现归属净利润 10.6 亿 元（同比-41.1%），实现归属扣非净利润 11.3 亿元（同比-37.1%）。其中单三季度实现收入 27.4 亿元（同比-17.0%，环比-10.1%），实现归属净利润 3.2 亿元（同比-46.4%，环比-20.9%），实 现归属扣非净利润 3.8 亿元 （同比-34.1%，环比-6.0%）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 李禹默 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525060002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 博源化工（000683.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 拟收购银 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨龙源电力（001289.SZ） [Table_Title] 风况偏弱限制主业经营，业绩增速受限高基数 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 三季度公司风电发电量同比增长 3.32%，增速环比降低 4.7 个百分点；光伏发电量同比增长 88.61%，增速环比提升 4.4 个百分点。若剔除火电剥离影响，三季度营业收入同比增长 5.15%， 新能源业务收入平稳增长。但利用小时数与电价的承压依然对当期业绩产生不利影响，三季度 公司毛利润同比降低 1.51 亿元。去年同期公司因江阴热电转让取得一次性投资收益 5.14 亿元， 受高基数的影响，三季度投资收益贡献同比降低 5.26 亿元。主业经营偏弱叠加去年一次性投资 收益推高业绩基数，三季度公司实现归母净利润 10.18 亿元，同比降低 38.19%。 分析师及联系人 张韦华 邬博华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18 CNY based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure but is expected to benefit from industry recovery and the growth of new brands. The revenue growth is primarily driven by e-commerce, while franchise channels face challenges [2][10]. - The company has made significant investments in brand rejuvenation and new brand development, which have led to increased sales expenses, impacting profitability [10][11]. - The company has acquired two international brands, CERRUTI 1881 and KENT&CURWEN, which are currently in the investment phase, contributing to short-term losses but expected to enhance growth in the long term [10][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,536 million CNY in 2023 to 5,256 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 11.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 911 million CNY in 2023 to 683 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 919 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decrease from 78.6% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 76.3% by 2027 [4]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.20 CNY, 1.38 CNY, and 1.61 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [3][11]. - The company’s sales expenses are expected to increase significantly, impacting overall profitability despite revenue growth [10][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 31, 2025, was 15.98 CNY, with a 52-week high of 22.19 CNY and a low of 14.93 CNY [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance saw a significant year-on-year increase, driven by the recovery in the oil and bulk shipping markets [5][8] - The optimistic outlook for the oil and bulk shipping markets, along with the company's leading position, supports the maintained "Buy" rating [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 19.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue reaching 6.725 billion yuan, up 10.95% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.06% year-on-year, while Q3 net profit was 1.175 billion yuan, an increase of 34.75% [8] - The net profit from the oil tanker segment in Q3 2025 was 597 million yuan, up 55.06% year-on-year, while the bulk carrier segment saw a net profit of 292 million yuan, down 21.08% [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 5.543 billion yuan, 8.153 billion yuan, and 8.714 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 8.53%, 47.09%, and 6.88% respectively [6] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.43, 9.13, and 8.54 times respectively [6] Market Dynamics - The oil shipping market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, which may lead to higher shipping volumes and a tightening supply-demand balance for VLCCs [8] - The dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to improve due to increased demand from the recovery of commodity prices and new mining projects in Guinea [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant profit growth, with the life insurance new business value (NBV) continuing to grow at a high rate [4] - In Q3 2025, the group's net profit attributable to shareholders and operating profit after tax (OPAT) increased by 15.2% and 45.4% year-on-year, reaching 385 billion and 648 billion yuan respectively [5] - The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while the OPAT grew by 11.5% [5] - The life insurance NBV growth rate improved from 39.8% in the mid-year report to 46.2% in the Q3 report [6] - The comprehensive investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1 percentage point to 5.4% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the life insurance, property insurance, and banking segments' OPAT year-on-year growth rates were 0.6%, 26.2%, and -2.8% respectively, with life insurance remaining the core business [5] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 64.8 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from life insurance investments [10] Life Insurance Business - The life insurance NBV growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 46.2%, driven by agent and bancassurance channels [6] - The report anticipates continued good growth in the agent channel due to the company's strategy of combining products with medical and elderly care services [6] Investment Situation - The company's investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 was positively impacted by an increase in equity assets, which rose from 616.4 billion yuan in H1 2024 to 942.1 billion yuan in H1 2025 [7] - The core solvency ratio for life insurance decreased by 32.5 percentage points to 135% by the end of Q3 2025 [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for the company for 2025-2027 is 1494 billion, 1785 billion, and 2018 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 19.5%, and 13.0% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio of 0.66, 0.61, and 0.57 for the years 2025-2027 [8]

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 铁路公路 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 03 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | 5.71 | | --- | --- | | 一 年 内 最 高 / 最 低 | 6.56/4.74 | | （元） | | | 总市值（百万元） | 17,461.52 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 17,461.52 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3,058.06 | | 资产负债率（%） | 66.28 | | 每股净资产（元/股） | 5. ...