三只松鼠主营业务净利润下跌超79% 三个月内两次涨价 同样是卖零食，三只松鼠是零食品牌商，同时兼营零售渠道；万辰集团则是量贩零食渠道商，同时也有 一些自有品牌。对比往年，三只松鼠去年的净利润水平已经低于2024年、2023年，而万辰集团净利润则 与前两年一样，仍在快速增长。 除了披露净利润外，业绩预告显示，三只松鼠预计，2025年，其扣除非经常性损益的净利润为4500万元 至6500万元，同比下降了79.64%至85.91%。也就是说，其主营业务净利润下降得更快。 同样是卖零食，同一天发布业绩预告的三只松鼠和万辰集团，业绩冰火两重天。 对于业绩变动，三只松鼠称，2025年度，公司坚定贯彻"高端性价比"总战略，并向品质化和差异化持续 升级。由于2025年度销售旺季（年货节）结构性错档、坚果原料价格较大幅度上涨、主动调整销售结构 （优化传统店型、整合渠道资源、缩减低效品类等），综合导致利润下滑。与此同时，公司抢抓社区零 售新赛道机遇，推出全品类自有品牌"生活馆"新店型，配套打造基于生鲜和现制的"中央厨房"，聚焦长 期高质量增长，前期战略性投入进一步影响阶段利润产出。 1月29日，三只松鼠发布业绩预告称，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - A consumer reported discrepancies in the weight of snacks purchased from the "Hao Xiang Lai" store in Cixi, Ningbo, leading to claims of overcharging due to inaccurate measurements [1][4]. Company Response - The company, Wanchen Group, acknowledged the issue and stated that it was due to an operational error by a new employee. They have conducted an internal investigation and confirmed that the measuring instruments used in the store are compliant and accurate [6][7]. - Wanchen Group emphasized its commitment to product measurement and service quality, stating that all measuring instruments are legally certified and undergo daily calibration [7]. Market Position - "Hao Xiang Lai" is a leading brand in the bulk snack retail sector, and Wanchen Group is the only listed company in this industry on the A-share market. As of June 2025, the company plans to expand its store count to 15,365, including 14,334 "Hao Xiang Lai" stores [7]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Wanchen Group reported a revenue increase of 77.37% to 36.562 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 917.04% to 855 million yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - A consumer reported being overcharged by 6.41 yuan at a "Hao Xiang Lai" store in Cixi, Zhejiang, due to discrepancies in the weight of snacks purchased compared to the store's measurements, which the company attributed to a new employee's operational error [1][4]. Group 1: Company Response - The company conducted an internal investigation and confirmed the issue was due to a new employee's mistake, leading to retraining of the staff involved [1][4]. - The company proactively reached out to the consumer to apologize and negotiate compensation to resolve the matter amicably [1][4]. Group 2: Consumer Claims - The consumer used a personal scale to weigh several products, finding significant discrepancies: for example, the "Bamboo Shoot Chicken Sausage" was weighed at 76 grams in-store but only 62.2 grams at home, and the "Infinite Salt Baked Chicken Wings" showed a difference of 14 grams [1][4]. - Overall, the consumer claimed that the store overcharged her by approximately 6.41 yuan based on a total weight discrepancy of about 129 grams across 23 items purchased [1][4]. Group 3: Regulatory Oversight - The Cixi Market Supervision Administration inspected the store's scales on January 27 and found no abnormalities [2][5]. - The company stated that all measuring instruments used in its stores are legally certified and undergo daily calibration to ensure accuracy [2][5]. Group 4: Company Background - "Hao Xiang Lai" is a snack retail chain under Wancheng Group, which consolidated several brands in September 2023, and operates from its headquarters in Nanjing, Jiangsu [2][5]. - The brand covers nine categories, including beverages and baked goods, with nearly 2,000 SKUs per store, and is projected to achieve a GMV of 426 billion yuan in 2024, leading the Chinese snack and beverage retail market [2][5]. Group 5: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Wancheng Group reported revenue of 22.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.89%, with the snack retail business contributing 22.345 billion yuan, accounting for 98.95% of total revenue and growing by 109.33% [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Mingming Henbang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 28, becoming the "first stock of snack retail" in Hong Kong, with its stock price surging 88% on the first day of trading, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 90 billion, setting a record for the largest IPO in China's snack industry [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Henbang was formed by the merger of "Snacks Henbang" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" at the end of 2023, and as of September 2025, it has opened nearly 20,000 stores, averaging almost 20 new stores per day [3] - The founder, Yan Zhou, attributes the company's success to a simple philosophy of making good snacks affordable and accessible to consumers [3] Group 2: Competitor Activity - Meanwhile, Wanchen Group has initiated its listing process, submitting an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2025, aiming for a dual listing in both A-shares and H-shares [4] - Wanchen Group's brand "Haoxianglai" has also seen rapid growth, with its store count surpassing 15,000 by June 30, 2025, and total revenue increasing from CNY 9.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 32.33 billion in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 247.9% [6] Group 3: Supply Chain Efficiency - Both companies have transformed traditional retail supply chains, with Wanchen Group sourcing about 95% of its products directly from manufacturers, resulting in retail prices that are approximately 20% to 30% lower than traditional supermarkets [7] - Mingming Henbang also employs a direct sourcing model, achieving prices about 25% lower than traditional offline supermarkets [7] - Wanchen Group has established a robust logistics network with 51 ambient warehouses and 13 cold chain warehouses, reducing replenishment cycles to "T+1," while Mingming Henbang has set up 48 smart distribution centers for 24-hour delivery within a 300 km radius [7] Group 4: Consumer Experience - The success of snack retail stores is attributed to redefining the consumer experience from merely "buying" to an enjoyable "browsing" experience [8] - Wanchen Group's "Haoxianglai" aims to create a shopping space that integrates shopping, entertainment, and social interaction, with differentiated store layouts based on various consumer scenarios [10] - Mingming Henbang utilizes digital tools like the "全民选品" app to capture consumer preferences and collaborate with manufacturers to create popular products [10] Group 5: Market Potential - The snack retail sector is projected to have significant growth potential, with the Chinese snack food and beverage retail market exceeding CNY 3.7 trillion and continuing to grow steadily [12] - The market is experiencing two key structural changes: a shift towards specialized retail models and a continued expansion into lower-tier markets, which are becoming the main drivers of growth [12] - Estimates suggest that there is potential for approximately 74,000 snack retail stores nationwide, with an expected increase of about 24,000 stores by 2025 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The brand "Hao Xiang Lai," under Wancheng Group, has been rapidly expanding its stores but has faced frequent complaints regarding issues like "short weight," which directly harms consumer interests [1] Group 1 - "Hao Xiang Lai" is a brand under Wancheng Group that has seen significant store expansion in recent years [1] - The rapid expansion of the brand has been accompanied by reports of consumer complaints about "short weight" practices [1] - The issue of "short weight" indicates a direct detriment to consumer interests, raising concerns about the brand's business practices [1]

2025年全年，万辰集团量贩零食业务预计实现营收500亿元至520亿元，较去年同期增长约57.28%至 63.57%。 季度内，万辰集团完成了对子公司南京万优（来优品运营主体）的股权收购，持股比例由26.01%上升 至75.01%。 鸣鸣很忙港股上市的次日，"老对手"万辰集团便交出了最新业绩预告。 虽然市场曾预期双龙头格局企稳后，重心将转向单店盈利的精细化调整，但伴随鸣鸣很忙与万辰集团先 后奔赴港股，行业的"进攻性"并未消减。 鸣鸣很忙CEO晏周在受访时坦言，模式仍有巨大规模化空间，尚未到必须讲"第二曲线"的阶段。 万辰集团同样在加速狂奔。有机构预估，万辰在2025年第四季度新增门店约1600家，扩张节奏较前三季 度明显提速。 参考量贩零食业态发源地及渗透率最高的湖南省，目前门店数约5500家。华源证券结合各省人口、消费 水平、地租等供需参数，认为全国理论开店空间约8.6万家。 中信证券则认为行业长期容量可达7-8万家。叠加市场集中度持续提升的趋势，龙头企业的门店数量仍 具备超过50%的增长空间。 风险提示及免责条款 此举显著增厚了净利润，在加回计提的股份支付费用后，量贩零食业务预计实现净利润22亿元至26亿 ...

Group 1 - The core issue reported by consumers is that the actual weight of snacks purchased at "Hao Xiang Lai" is less than the weight indicated by the store, leading to overcharging of approximately 6.41 yuan for 129 grams of snacks [2][3] - "Hao Xiang Lai" attributes the weight discrepancy to operational errors by new employees, but this explanation lacks credibility given that multiple products were affected [3][4] - The problem of inaccurate weight measurements is not isolated to "Hao Xiang Lai," as similar complaints have been reported at other snack brands, indicating a broader issue within the industry regarding weight measurement practices [4] Group 2 - The rapid expansion of "Hao Xiang Lai" has been accompanied by frequent reports of weight discrepancies, which directly harm consumer interests and undermine the brand's reputation [4][5] - The company is urged to implement a daily verification system for product measurements and improve employee training to prevent future occurrences of weight discrepancies [4] - Maintaining user reputation and product experience is crucial for the company's development, and issues like "short weight" can severely damage credibility [5]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around consumer complaints regarding the weight of snacks purchased at "Hao Xiang Lai," a brand under Wancheng Group, where the actual weight was found to be lower than the weight indicated in-store [2][3] - A specific case highlighted that the consumer was overcharged by 6.41 yuan due to a discrepancy of approximately 129 grams in weight [3] - The company attributed the issue to operational mistakes by new employees, but the frequency of such complaints raises concerns about the overall measurement practices and employee training [4] Group 2 - "Hao Xiang Lai" has been rapidly expanding its store presence, but this growth has been accompanied by recurring issues of weight discrepancies, which directly affect consumer trust and satisfaction [4] - The phenomenon of "short weight" is not isolated to "Hao Xiang Lai," as similar issues have been reported across other snack brands, often dismissed by companies as mere employee errors [4] - The company is urged to implement stricter quality control measures and daily verification of product weights to address these recurring issues and restore consumer confidence [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 276.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a positive trend in store efficiency observed in Q4. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between RMB 50 billion and RMB 52.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.7% to 63.3% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be between RMB 1.23 billion and RMB 1.4 billion, indicating a substantial increase of 319.1% to 377.0% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a rapid store opening pace in 2026, with ongoing expansion in non-zero food categories and proprietary brands, which will enhance same-store performance [5][6][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 32.33 billion - 2025: RMB 51.94 billion - 2026: RMB 62.33 billion - 2027: RMB 72.31 billion - The year-on-year growth rates for these years are projected at 247.86%, 60.66%, 20.00%, and 16.00% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach: - 2024: RMB 293.52 million - 2025: RMB 1.38 billion - 2026: RMB 2.05 billion - 2027: RMB 2.52 billion - The corresponding growth rates are 453.95%, 370.61%, 48.67%, and 22.71% [4]. Operational Insights - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency through systematic improvements, which are expected to drive gross margin expansion. The net profit margin for the snack retail business is projected to improve to 4.4%-5.1% in 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024 [7][8]. - The company is also focusing on deepening membership operations, with the number of members reaching 150 million by August 2025, and increasing the average purchase frequency among active members [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is diversifying its product offerings by adding categories such as baking, cooking oils, and frozen products, which will enhance store performance and flexibility in site selection [8]. - The ongoing optimization of operational efficiency through supply chain integration is expected to solidify cost advantages and improve inventory management [8].

证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 盈利能力明显提升，Q4 店效趋势向好 华泰研究 公告点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 石狄 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万) | 32,329 | 51,941 | 62,330 | 72,305 | | +/-% | 247.86 | 60.66 | 20.00 | 16.00 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 293.52 | 1,381 | 2,054 | 2,520 | | (百万) | | | ...