中国国航、中国东航、南方航空、海航控股、华夏航空近日公布2025年年度业绩预告。报告期内，国 航、东航、南航三大航共减亏32.59亿至45.59亿元。南航和海航预计实现年度扭亏为盈，华夏航空净利 润同比扩大，东航亏损同比收窄，而国航亏损同比扩大。 具体来看，中国国航预计公司2025年度将出现亏损，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为人民币13亿元到 人民币19亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约为人民币19亿元到人民币27亿元。 中国东航预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为-13亿元至-18亿元。预计2025年度归属于上市 公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约为人民币-27亿元至-33亿元。2025年，中国东航全年完成运输 总周转量279.81亿吨公里，旅客运输量近1.50亿人次，分别同比增长10.82%和6.68%，利润总额预计为 人民币2亿元至3亿元。 据南方航空公告，预计公司2025年度将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币8.00 亿元到人民币10.00亿元。对于业绩预增的原因，公告称，南方航空积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精 准投放运力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益成 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].

格隆汇1月31日｜据澎湃，时隔五年，南航预计在三大航中率先实现年度扭亏。截至1月30日晚间，中国 国航、中国东航、南方航空、海航控股、华夏航空集中披露完2025年度业绩预告。其中，南航和海航预 计实现年度扭亏为盈，华夏航空净利润同比扩大，东航亏损同比收窄，而国航亏损同比扩大。 ...

1月29日晚，民营支线航空公司华夏航空（002928.SZ）发布2025年度业绩预告，公司预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为5亿元—7亿元，同比增长 86.59%—161.22%。 作为航点主要覆盖中小城市的支线航空公司，长期以来，由地方政府等机构购买航班客运运力以及国家对支线航空的补贴，是华夏航空营收和利润的重要来 源。华夏航空2025年半年报显示，上半年公司"其他收益"为7.44亿元，该收益主要系报告期内确认与日常经营相关的航线补贴收入，计入当期损益的政府补 助为7.35亿元，预计将超过这家航空公司年度盈利。 早在2017年申请IPO时，华夏航空就在招股书中详细解析了公司商业模式的特点之一——机构运力购买业务收入占比较高。公司披露，其在运营支线航线时 与地方政府、支线机场等机构签订运力购买协议，购买航班的客运运力。机构客户与公司签订相关合同，明确购买公司相应每个航班的运力总价；每个结算 期末公司与机构客户进行核对，如果实际销售的机票收入低于机构客户当期运力购买的总和，则由机构客户将差额支付给公司；如果实际销售的机票收入高 于机构客户当期运力购买的总和，则公司将超过部分的收入支付给机构客户。 招股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing trend of scale decline and strategy adjustments in the management of funds by Chen Tao, leading to a significant management transition [1][21]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the total scale of the two funds managed by Chen Tao was approximately 3.666 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 900 million yuan from the end of Q3 2025 [2][22]. - This decline is not a one-time occurrence but has been a continuous trend since the second half of 2023, with the "Zhonggeng Value Pioneer" fund experiencing a peak scale of over 9 billion yuan in Q2 2023, followed by a significant drop in performance [3][23]. Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the "Zhonggeng Value Pioneer" fund saw a net redemption of approximately 490 million shares, reducing its scale from 3.2 billion yuan at the end of Q3 to 2.5 billion yuan [5][24]. - The "Zhonggeng Small Cap Value" fund also faced a decline, ending Q4 with a scale of about 1.1 billion yuan, down approximately 200 million yuan from Q3 [5][24]. - By the end of 2025, Chen Tao's management scale had significantly shrunk, indicating a clear reduction in management radius [6][24]. Group 3 - Despite maintaining a high stock position of over 90% in both funds, there was a notable shift in industry allocation, particularly a reduction in holdings in the liquor and aviation sectors due to weakening fundamentals [7][25]. - Chen Tao indicated that the decision to reduce exposure to liquor and aviation was driven by unexpected deterioration in industry fundamentals and increased uncertainty [27][28]. - The overall portfolio still reflects a bias towards "low valuation, low expectation" stocks, but the adjustments did not significantly alter this characteristic [28][29]. Group 4 - The top ten holdings of both funds showed a high degree of overlap, exceeding 90%, primarily in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food, manufacturing, and certain technology sub-sectors [10][29]. - Despite the concentration in holdings, both funds underperformed their benchmarks, with "Zhonggeng Value Pioneer" achieving approximately 10% annual returns compared to over 27% for the benchmark [10][30]. - This suggests that the issues may lie more in stock selection and industry allocation effectiveness rather than a misalignment with index direction [12][30]. Group 5 - Chen Tao's investment framework remains focused on typical value investment logic, emphasizing low valuation, low expectations, and manageable fundamental risks while waiting for a reversal [13][31]. - However, the market's patience is waning as low valuations have not yet translated into profitability and stock performance, reflecting a broader challenge faced by many value-oriented funds in recent years [31][32]. - Following the quarterly report, Chen Tao was replaced as fund manager, with Han Yiping and Yin Le taking over the management of the "Zhonggeng Small Cap Value" fund [33][34].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 2026 年 01 月 30 日 相关研究 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 《景气度持续提升，从量变到质变—— 2025 下半年航空板块投资策略》 2025/06/12 《全球格局持续演变，静待我国航司迈入 成熟期——2025 航空及海外飞机制造链 年度策略》 2024/11/27 《航空出行渐入常态，再强调"国际+供 给"双主线——2024 航空机场中期策 略》 2024/06/14 《不同周期阶段的不同演绎，民航业东升 西降趋势确定-2024 航空机场投资展望》 2023/12/05 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is implementing the "Dry-Branch Connectivity and Full Network Integration" strategy to enhance the aviation network by linking trunk airports with branch airports, facilitating regional economic development and improving travel convenience for the public [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the "Lan-Jia Express Line" on January 29, 2026, marks a significant step in Gansu's implementation of the national strategy, connecting Lanzhou, Jiayuguan, and Jiuquan to enhance the regional aviation network [1][2]. - The "Lan-Jia Express Line" aims to create a comprehensive aviation service system focusing on high-frequency business travel, with a goal of achieving "morning departures and evening arrivals" for business flights [2][4]. Group 2: Operational Enhancements - The core route of "Jiayuguan-Lanzhou" will have an average of at least 5 flights per day, with plans to increase to 10 flights during the summer peak season, catering to both business and tourism travel needs [2][3]. - The collaboration between Lanzhou Zhongchuan International Airport and Eastern Airlines Gansu Branch aims to significantly reduce passenger wait times for check-in and security, enhancing overall travel efficiency [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The Jiayuguan and Jiuquan region, accounting for 41% of the GDP of the Hexi Corridor, will benefit from the "Lan-Jia Express Line" by accelerating the flow of people, capital, technology, and culture, thus promoting economic collaboration between the two cities [4]. - The initiative aligns with the CAAC's strategy to empower regional development through aviation, transforming regional resource advantages into developmental benefits [4].

2025年度，公司预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为5亿元～7亿元，同比增长86.59%～161.22%，主要 系：国内因私出行需求旺盛，公司紧盯支线市场需求变化，抓住支线旅游、淡季出行等市场机会，通过 优化支线网络结构、促进干支衔接等方式，推动航班量提升，满足更多旅客的航空出行需求，从而提升 客座率。 格隆汇1月29日丨华夏航空(002928.SZ)发布2025年度业绩预告，报告期内，归属于上市公司股东的净利 润5亿元～7亿元，同比增长86.59%～161.22%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润4.8亿元～6.8亿元，同比 增长327.27%～505.30%；基本每股收益0.3926元/股～0.5496元/股。 ...

Major Announcements - China Gold announced that its stock trading shows signs of market sentiment overheating, which may lead to a risk of short-term declines after significant price increases. The company's P/E ratio is 55.63, significantly higher than the industry median of 28.60 [1] - Zhaojin Mining stated that the prices of its gold and gold concentrate products are highly influenced by fluctuations in gold prices, which could significantly impact its operating performance if gold prices experience large swings [2] - Silver (Core Stock) Nonferrous reported that the revenue from its gold and silver products constitutes a low proportion of total operating income, with gold product sales accounting for 18.67% and silver product sales for 4.54% of total revenue [3] Company-Specific Risks - Hunan Silver (Core Stock) indicated that it has a relatively low amount of proven metal resources compared to industry peers, which poses a resource reserve risk. The company also faces risks from silver price fluctuations and has a low gross margin of 6.54% compared to mining companies [4] - TianShun Wind Energy decided to implement a long-term shutdown of six wholly-owned subsidiaries due to increasing market competition, aiming to optimize resource allocation and focus on core businesses like offshore wind power [5] - Qidi Environment expects a negative net asset value by the end of 2025, which may lead to a risk warning for its stock trading if the audited net assets are confirmed to be negative [6] Performance Forecasts - BlueFocus anticipates a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan for 2025, benefiting from growth in overseas business and improved credit management [12] - Shengyi Technology expects a net profit of 3.25 billion to 3.45 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98% due to rising sales of copper-clad laminates [13] - Sichuan Gold forecasts a net profit of 420 million to 480 million yuan for 2025, up 69.23% to 93.4% year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume and rising gold prices [14] - Dongfang Communication predicts a net profit of approximately 360 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 138.5%, primarily due to significant investment gains from the disposal of financial assets [15] Other Notable Announcements - Yunnan Copper confirmed that its production and operations are normal, with no undisclosed significant matters, despite its stock experiencing a 20% price fluctuation [9] - Liou Co. reported that its operations are normal, with no undisclosed significant matters, and its stock has also seen a significant price fluctuation [10] - Guosheng Securities expects a net profit of 210 million to 280 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.44% to 67.25% due to robust business development [29]