证券研究报告 关注节后成交走势，三重对比港资房企 向上空间仍存 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：春节后到3月为楼市下一个重要观察节点，优质房企中期维度仍具备性价比。随着近期二手房市场成交回暖，本周市场对地产 关注度仍在升温，但对后续看法呈现分化。我们认为短期随着春节逐步临近，市场成交或趋于回落，节后到3月将是楼市下一个重要观察 节点。从板块投资来看，我们仍维持上周观点，在短期二手房成交淡季不淡、房企业绩压力提前释放、政策端不断释放积极信号等背景 下，中期维度来看优质房企已有一定配置价值。 全年看好港资房企，三重维度对比向上仍有空间。1月港资房企表现靓丽，我们持续提示的新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业单月涨幅达 32.7%、10.6%、15.3%，市场对于香港楼市延续上行逐步形成共识，更关注后续个股空间，我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿 基地产为例，目前PB为0.59倍，仍低于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.72PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底； 2）上轮香港楼市调整于2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales, with a significant increase in transaction volumes and areas sold in key cities, indicating a recovery in market demand [5][7] - Local government policies in Guangdong and Nanjing aim to stabilize the real estate market and enhance housing quality, which is expected to support sales growth [14][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies and suggests focusing on leading firms that can effectively navigate market fluctuations [7] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 2.21%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.08%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [4][12] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 23-29, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities reached 23,510 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% and a month-on-month increase of 17.1% [5][21] - The total area sold was 2.21 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% and a month-on-month increase of 19.4% [21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 20,208 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 170.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 3% [32][35] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - Land supply for the week was 2,166.4 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the average supply price was 1,636 yuan per square meter, up 110.3% year-on-year [6] - Land transactions totaled 1,183.6 million square meters, down 34% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 16.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.7% year-on-year [6] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 5.55 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, marking a year-on-year increase of 224.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 56.4% [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for quality commercial real estate and potential value reassessment [4][6]. Core Insights - The first batch of three commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the CSRC, covering underlying assets such as office buildings, hotels, and outlet malls. The expected fundraising sizes are CNY 4.002 billion for Huatai Fu Shanghai Real Estate REIT, CNY 7.47 billion for CICC Vipshop REIT, and CNY 1.703 billion for Huaan Jinjiang REIT, with projected cash distribution rates of 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% respectively for 2026 [2][4][5]. - The rapid advancement of commercial real estate REITs by the CSRC is expected to lead to a broader range of participants and faster approvals in the future. This contrasts with the slower progress seen in infrastructure REITs under the NDRC [4][5]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization is anticipated to activate existing assets, mitigate risks, and assist in corporate transformation. This will provide new financing channels and enhance the visibility of asset values [4][5]. - The report highlights two significant opportunities: the reassessment of quality commercial real estate values and the strength of premium products in core cities, suggesting that further supportive policies for the real estate market are likely to emerge [4][6]. Summary by Sections REITs Overview - The first three commercial real estate REITs cover assets including office buildings and hotels, with expected fundraising sizes of CNY 40.02 billion, CNY 74.7 billion, and CNY 17.03 billion, and cash distribution rates projected at 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% for 2026 respectively [4][5]. Differences Between REITs - The report outlines key differences between NDRC and CSRC REITs, including the asset ownership structure, approval processes, and types of underlying assets, indicating a shift towards including private enterprises in the CSRC REITs [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, and others in the commercial real estate sector, as well as quality property management firms [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector [6]. Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China is expected to significantly improve corporate cash flow and performance, optimizing financial statements and guiding the industry towards a new model of development [2][6]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has entered the application stage, accelerating the development process [6]. - The report highlights several recommended companies across different categories, including development, residential-commercial, property management, and cultural tourism [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs covers diverse asset types such as hotels, offices, and commercial complexes, enhancing the range of underlying assets [2]. - Specific REITs mentioned include: 1. Huazhong Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 1.703 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 3.44% for 2025 [6]. 2. Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 4.002 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.50% for 2026 [6]. 3. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 7.47 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.57% for 2026 [6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [8]. - Notable companies include: - Vanke A, with a projected EPS of -4.17 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 54.22 [8]. - China Overseas Development, with a projected EPS of 1.43 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 8.93 [8]. - Longfor Group, with a projected EPS of 1.58 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 5.93 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a significant recovery in operational assets despite short-term performance being affected by historical adjustments [1] Group 1: Industry Performance and Market Signals - The report highlights that among 78 A-share real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 58 reported losses, reflecting the objective reality of market adjustments over the past few years [1] - Positive signals are emerging in the industry, with the National Bureau of Statistics indicating that the adjustment phase has entered a deep water zone, with new and second-hand housing price indices in 70 major cities down by 12.6% and 21.3% from their peaks, respectively [1] - The downward trend in second-hand housing listings in major cities suggests an improving supply-demand relationship [1] - A significant article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for comprehensive real estate policy support, boosting buyer confidence and laying a solid foundation for a quicker market stabilization [1] Group 2: REITs Market and Financial Health - The report notes a significant improvement in the approval efficiency of the REITs market, accelerating the securitization of quality assets, which strengthens real estate companies' balance sheets and reduces debt burdens [2] - The healthy cash flow of the household sector and a robust macroeconomic environment provide solid support for the continuous recovery of operational cash flows for enterprises [2] - The financing structure in the industry is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving from reliance on corporate credit bonds to project financing (REITs and property operation loans), effectively alleviating the core mismatch between assets and liabilities [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - Based on the analysis, CITIC Securities suggests an investment strategy focused on operational assets and the revaluation of core asset values in China [2] - Companies with core resources and operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Mixc Life, Joy City, New Century Holdings, Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, and Longfor Group, are highlighted as having significant advantages [2] - With the expectation of a positive resonance between household and corporate balance sheets, the real estate industry is poised to emerge from the adjustment phase and enter a new recovery stage [2]

本土设计师潮牌SMFK的最新一家店，落在广州聚龙湾太古里。 作为太古地产在华南地区的首个太古里，聚龙湾太古里是近些年备受瞩目的高规格商业地产项目，大牌 与新锐云集。 SMFK拿到数一数二的好位置，在紧邻街边和地铁站出口的一幢独栋建筑里开出双层旗舰店。与之比邻 的是鬼冢虎、lululemon，不远处还有安德玛、Fila等，都是时下商场里热门的户外运动类品牌。 算上这家店，SMFK目前已经开出38家门店，除了位于美国、加拿大和澳大利亚的3家，其余35家分布 在中国内地的27座城市，多选址在万象城等高端购物中心。 智通财经记者 | 朱咏玲 智通财经编辑 | 楼婍沁 SMFK从2020年进入线下，但加快节奏是在疫情之后，尤其是刚过去的2025年，品牌门店数量净增25 家。SMFK创始人之一刘宇宸（Frank）告诉智通财经，预计未来几年SMFK将继续保持每年新开20家到 25家门店的速度；2026年品牌新店规划已经完成，正在逐步落地。目前SMFK约三分之一门店为品牌直 营，其余由代理商开出。 这在中国线下时尚零售市场里是少数。最近几年，收缩和调整存量店铺才是主流。 何况SMFK开的还都是重金装修的数百平大店。据刘宇宸介 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, specifically for Outlet REITs [1]. Core Insights - The outlet industry is characterized by high cost-performance and anti-cyclical properties, appealing to consumers' frugal spending habits. During economic downturns, high-income consumers tend to downgrade their spending and turn to outlets for discounted luxury brands. The current expansion of outlets in China is slowing, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and innovating business models among major players [2]. - The domestic outlet market is less concentrated compared to overseas markets, indicating potential investment value in quality outlet REITs. The overall discount rate/capitalization rate for domestic outlet assets is higher than that of shopping centers, reflecting the volatility of income linked to sales performance. The report highlights that leading outlet REITs, such as CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT, maintain a high NOI yield above 77% for 2023-2024, showcasing their attractiveness to consumers and operational capabilities [2]. Summary by Sections Outlet Industry Characteristics & Comparison with Shopping Centers - Outlets differ from shopping centers in tenant management, customer coverage, business mix, and income structure. Outlets typically use a joint venture model, allowing for greater revenue elasticity and a focus on operational performance rather than occupancy rates. They also have lower fixed costs and a higher profit margin due to their retail-centric business model [3][25][29]. - The seasonal characteristics of outlets are notable, with Q2 and Q3 being off-peak seasons, while Q1 and Q4 see higher sales due to major holidays and promotional events. This seasonal pattern influences operational strategies, such as brand upgrades during off-peak periods [41][38]. Investment Value of Outlet REITs - The report emphasizes that the domestic outlet market is entering a phase of stable competition, with room for increased concentration among leading players. Quality outlets possess barriers in brand introduction, operational management, and capital strength, making them scarce and valuable assets. The anti-cyclical nature of outlets positions them as an attractive investment choice in a rational consumption environment [2][19]. - The report suggests monitoring specific outlet REITs, such as CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT and Huaxia Shouchuang Outlet REIT, as they demonstrate long-term investment potential [2]. Major Players in the Outlet Market - The report identifies six major players in the domestic outlet market, with Shanshan leading in the number of opened projects. These players are categorized into professional outlet operators and diversified department store transformations, indicating a competitive landscape with varying operational strategies [19][20][21]. - The report notes that two of the major players have already issued outlet REITs, showcasing the trend of institutional investment in this sector [22]. International Comparison and Future Outlook - The report draws parallels with international outlet markets, suggesting that the concentration level of domestic outlets is expected to rise, similar to trends observed abroad. This indicates a potential for growth and investment opportunities in the domestic outlet sector [48].

来源：环球网 当商业地产从追求规模转向价值深耕，如何与城市共同成长，成为决定长期竞争力的关键。1月23日， 华贸集团以"先见·品质生活"为名，给出了以"长期主义"和"城市共生"为核心的答案。 1月23日，华贸集团"先见·品质生活"品牌发布会在苏州华贸中心隆重举行。活动汇聚了来自政府代表、 行业伙伴、知名品牌方及媒体行业的超180名代表，共同回顾华贸二十余年的"与城市共生"的发展历 程，系统阐释其"对城市负责、对社会负责、对历史负责"的核心价值观，并发布了以长期主义为指导的 全国化战略布局。 先见·品质生活品牌发布会现场 华贸集团董事长房超分享 在会上，华贸集团董事长、华贸中心创始人房超发表了《与城市共生》的主旨演讲。他回溯品牌初心， 指出华贸自创立之初便以全球视野，致力于在中心城市核心地段打造集商务、商业、居住、酒店、文化 于一体的"有机、生态、融合"城市综合体，旨在营造一种现代化的高端"大都会生活方式"。这一初心凝 练为"对城市负责、对社会负责、对历史负责"的"三个负责"理念，成为华贸所有事业的基石。 经典验证与战略升级：从北京到苏州的实践之路 房超董事长以北京华贸中心和苏州华贸中心为例，阐述了华贸"长期主 ...

（来源：沈阳晚报） 转自：沈阳晚报 记者 王彩丽 刘铁山 金永鑫 作为沈阳地铁集团与华润万象生活联袂打造的标杆力作，兴华汇是沈阳首个TOD模式沉浸式商业街 区，以"潮流生活新主场"为核心理念，锚定18-35岁青年客群。项目与铁西万象汇构建地上地下立体商 业生态，联动周边成熟商业体，打造"出闸即消费"的全新体验。通过600平方米挑高穹顶中庭、五大主 题场景组团等创新设计，消解地下空间压抑感，让商业空间成为复合型城市公共客厅。 发布会上，兴华汇公布阶段性招商成果，10家主力品牌完成签约，业态覆盖潮流零售、品质餐饮、休闲 体验等全品类，精准匹配潮流青年需求。其中，潮流零售聚焦新锐设计师品牌与国潮文创，餐饮板块规 划"烟火巷里"特色街区，休闲体验板块打造沈阳首个生态型"谷圈"主题舞台，各业态互补共生，构建独 特商业竞争力。发布会现场，各方代表达成共建商业新生态的共识。 目前，兴华汇主体工程已完工，进入装修施工关键阶段，首批签约商户同步启动进场筹备，预计2026年 正式开业。未来，项目将深化潮流社交与沉浸体验定位，打造沈阳乃至东北TOD商业标杆，推动铁西 商圈提质升级，为东北商业市场提供TOD模式新样本。 沈阳晚报、沈 ...