Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - Since Q2 of this year, the pressure on second-hand housing prices in core cities has increased, while first-hand housing prices and the land market remain relatively hot, leading to a significant disparity between the first and second-hand markets. The report highlights three main points: 1) Core cities face substantial downward pressure on second-hand housing prices 2) The process of price recovery for new homes in core areas is not yet over 3) The pressure to stabilize prices is increasing, with a new round of policy easing expected [2][5][9] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.53% this week, with an excess return of +1.16% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 7th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 4.96%, with an excess return of -1.83% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 26th out of 32 [6][16] Policy Updates - Recent policy optimizations include a unified down payment ratio of 15% for housing provident fund loans in Suzhou and Tianjin, and Hainan's initiative to acquire existing homes for affordable housing and relocation purposes [7][20] Sales Data - The sales data indicates a significant seasonal decline, but the year-on-year performance for second-hand transactions remains relatively stable due to a low base. For instance, the new home transaction area in 37 cities saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 17.9%, while second-hand homes showed a slight year-on-year change of 0.0% [8][21] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the contrasting trends in first and second-hand housing prices, emphasizing that core cities are experiencing a potential correction in second-hand prices, while new homes are expected to see a price recovery due to previously strict price controls [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit bonds adjusted following interest rates, with medium - to long - term high - grade bonds having a larger upward amplitude. Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads had limited changes, with spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ platforms generally up 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remaining flat [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, while mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [2][17]. - Perpetual and secondary capital (Two - Yong) bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and the yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [2][29]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds increased, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds narrowed [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds Adjusted Following Interest Rates, with Medium - to Long - Term High - Grade Bonds Having a Larger Upward Amplitude - Affected by the rising equity market and policies such as discount interest and state - owned enterprise purchases, interest - rate bonds weakened significantly this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 3BP, 4BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [5]. - Credit bond yields also increased, with medium - to long - term high - grade varieties having a larger upward amplitude. For example, the yield of 1Y AAA - rated credit bonds increased by 2BP, and the yields of other grades increased by 3BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude. Rating spreads and term spreads showed differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Had Narrow Fluctuations - The spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ urban investment platforms generally increased by 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remained flat. Most platform spreads changed within 1BP [9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial and municipal platforms generally remained flat, while the credit spreads of district - county platforms increased by 1BP [14]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Slightly Declined, and the Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real Estate Bonds Significantly Decreased - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP due to events such as state - owned enterprise purchases, and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [17]. - The spreads of AAA and AA+ coal bonds decreased by 1BP respectively, and the spreads of AA - rated coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, and the spreads of AA+ - rated steel bonds decreased by 1BP. The spreads of all grades of chemical bonds decreased by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Two - Yong Bonds Performed Weakly with Rising Spreads, and the Yields of 3 - 5 - Year High - Grade Varieties Significantly Increased - This week, Two - Yong bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and overall they performed worse than ordinary credit bond varieties. The yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [29]. - For 1Y bonds, the yields of all grades of secondary capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds increased by 4BP, and the spreads increased by 1BP [29]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increased, and the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Narrowed - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 2.76BP to 10.17BP, at the 15.70% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.01BP to 11.83BP, at the 23.40% quantile since 2015 [31]. - The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decreased by 1.82BP to 3.34BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.40BP to 7.51BP, at the 3.67% quantile [31]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term bill and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation) from the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds, and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by the arithmetic average method [38].

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current state and future trends of the real estate market, focusing on various aspects such as macroeconomic factors, industry dynamics, and company performance [2]. Group 1: Company Support and Financial Health - Shenzhen Metro Group has provided over 20 billion yuan to support Vanke, emphasizing the need for further liquidity support from Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and Shenzhen Metro Group for Vanke's success [5]. - Longfor Group's confidence in repaying over 10 billion Hong Kong dollars in syndicated loans ahead of schedule is attributed to its diversified and stable income structure, prudent investment strategy, and healthy financial status [6][7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Data Insights - In Wuhan, the proportion of price-reducing communities has decreased to 49%, with demand from first-time buyers and those seeking improvements acting as dual cores to stabilize prices [8]. - The real estate market in August showed signs of recovery, with a structural increase in visitor registrations driven by quality-focused supply in cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan [8]. - The inventory indicators for both short and long-term are decreasing, and the year-on-year price index is showing marginal improvement, with personal loans to real estate companies increasing [9]. Group 3: Land Auction and Policy Dynamics - A land auction in Shenzhen saw a record high price with a 35% premium, as a consortium led by China Resources won a plot for 8.64 billion yuan [10]. - The number of properties in judicial auctions reached new highs in July, indicating a potential opportunity for improving the housing market through better management of auction platforms [12]. - Local governments have been actively implementing policies to stabilize the market, with a notable increase in policy announcements, marking a shift to a "high-frequency output" mode since 2025 [13][14]. Group 4: Land Supply and Pricing Trends - The land supply and demand have both decreased on a month-on-month basis, with a slight rebound in premium rates, although they remain low for the year [15]. - In the 32nd week, the monitored supply area in key cities was 2.78 million square meters, down 35% month-on-month, while the transaction area was 3.18 million square meters, down 39% month-on-month [15]. Group 5: Residential Product Trends - From January to July, the national market has seen an increasing trend in the sale of larger residential products, with those over 120 square meters gaining market share, while smaller units have seen a decline [17].

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group anticipates a significant decline of approximately 70% in core profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate sector affecting the gross profit margin of its development business [1] Company Summary - Longfor Group's announcement highlights that despite the pressure on the gross profit margin from development business, it remains one of the few companies in the industry that continues to maintain positive profitability [1] - The company reported that its operational business continues to grow, with positive operating cash flow including capital expenditures, and is actively reducing its debt scale while optimizing its debt structure [1] Industry Summary - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with many listed property companies releasing their mid-year performance forecasts for 2025, indicating that losses remain the mainstream trend for the first half of the year [1] - According to Wind data, as of August 15, 74 property companies have issued performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 46 companies expected to report losses, accounting for over 60% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group anticipates a significant decline of approximately 70% in core profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate development amid a downturn in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Longfor Group's announcement highlights that despite the pressure on development business profitability, the operational business continues to show growth [1] - The company reported positive operating cash flow, including capital expenditures, and is actively reducing its debt scale while optimizing its debt structure [1] - Longfor Group remains one of the few companies in the industry that continues to maintain positive profitability despite the challenges faced [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The broader real estate industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with many listed property companies expected to report losses for the first half of 2025 [1] - As of August 15, 2023, 74 property companies have released their performance forecasts, with 46 companies, accounting for over 60%, expected to report losses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group anticipates a significant decline of approximately 70% in core profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate development amid industry downturn [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Longfor Group's operating revenue reached approximately 16.47 billion yuan (including tax) by the end of July 2025, with operational business revenue at about 8.76 billion yuan and service business revenue at around 7.71 billion yuan [2] - Despite the pressure on development business profitability, Longfor Group remains one of the few companies in the industry still achieving positive earnings [1][2] - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale and optimized its debt structure, with positive operating cash flow including capital expenditures [2] Group 2: Industry Context - As of August 15, 2025, over 60% of the 74 listed real estate companies that released performance forecasts are expected to report losses, continuing the trend from the previous year [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that, despite some alleviation of liquidity risks, the decline in profit margins for real estate development will lead to disappointing performance for Chinese developers in the first half of the year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - DBS Bank projects that Longfor's strategy of maintaining cash flow and reducing inventory will help lower debt, with potential land investments resuming in early 2026, which could accelerate the recovery of profit margins in real estate development [3] - Longfor Group emphasizes a customer-centric approach to enhance product and service capabilities, aiming for steady growth in development, operational, and service businesses to ensure sustainable development through positive operating cash flow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group (00960) announced a significant decline in profit expectations for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate industry affecting the gross profit margin of its property development business [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2024, the profit attributable to the company's owners is reported at RMB 5.87 billion, while the expected profit for the same period in 2025 is projected to decline by approximately 45% [1] - The core profit, excluding the impact of fair value changes in investment properties and other derivative financial instruments, is RMB 4.75 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024, with an anticipated decline of around 70% for the same period in 2025 [1] Operational Insights - The group's operational and service businesses continue to grow, contributing stable profits [1] - The operating cash flow, including capital expenditures, remains positive, and the company is steadily reducing its debt levels while optimizing its debt structure [1] - The company has fulfilled all debt obligations due in 2025 as of the announcement date [1] Strategic Focus - Moving forward, the company aims to enhance product and service capabilities centered around customer needs, actively promote inventory reduction in development business, and ensure steady growth in operational and service sectors [1] - The focus is on sustainable development across various business channels driven by positive operating cash flow [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group (00960) announced a significant decline in profit expectations for the upcoming fiscal periods, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate industry affecting its development business margins [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2024, the profit attributable to the company's owners is reported at RMB 5.87 billion, with an expected decline of approximately 45% for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The core profit, excluding the impact of fair value changes from investment properties and other derivative financial instruments, is RMB 4.75 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024, with an anticipated decline of around 70% for the same period in 2025 [1] Business Operations - The group's operational and service businesses continue to grow, contributing stable profits to the overall performance [1] - The operating cash flow, including capital expenditures, remains positive, and the company is steadily reducing its debt levels while optimizing its debt structure [1] Debt Management - The company is committed to fulfilling all debt obligations either ahead of schedule or on time, having fully repaid domestic credit bonds due within 2025 as of the announcement date [1] Future Strategy - Looking ahead, the company will focus on enhancing customer-centric product and service capabilities, actively promoting inventory reduction in development business, and ensuring steady growth in operational and service sectors to drive sustainable development across all business lines through positive operating cash flow [1]

龍湖集團控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限責任公司） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴 該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED （股份代號：960） 內幕消息－盈利警告 此 乃 龍 湖 集 團 控 股 有 限 公 司（「本公司」，連 同 其 附 屬 公 司 統 稱「本集團」）根 據 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 證 券 上 市 規 則（「上市規則」）第13.09條及香港法例第571章《證 券 及 期 貨 條 例》第XIVA部內幕消 息 條 文（定 義 見 上 市 規 則）而 作 出 的 公 告。 本 公 司 董 事 會（「董事會」）謹 此 知 會 本 公 司 股 東 及 潛 在 投 資 者，經 初 步 審 閱 本 集 團 截 至2025年6月 30日止六個月之未經審核綜合管理帳目及根據本公司現時可得的資料，對比截至2024年6月30日 止六個月本公司擁有人應佔溢利人民幣58.7億元，截至2025 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new housing price decline has narrowed year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a reduced month-on-month decline [5][14] - The second-hand housing price decline has also narrowed both month-on-month and year-on-year [6][19] - In July 2025, new housing prices in Shanghai led the market with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [7][26] - The overall real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at halting the decline [8][28] Summary by Sections New Housing Price Trends - In July 2025, the month-on-month price changes for new housing in first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.2%, -0.4%, and -0.3% respectively, with the overall decline for 70 cities at -0.3% [5][14] - Year-on-year, first, second, and third-tier cities saw price changes of -1.1%, -2.8%, and -4.2%, leading to an overall decline of 3.4% for 70 cities, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [5][14] Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - The month-on-month decline for second-hand housing prices in July 2025 was -0.5%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -1.0%, -0.5%, and -0.5% respectively [6][19] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities fell by 5.9%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -3.4%, -5.6%, and -6.4% respectively [6][19] Market Performance in Key Cities - In July 2025, among 35 key cities, new housing prices in Shanghai, Urumqi, and Changchun increased month-on-month, while year-on-year increases were noted in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan [7][26] - The overall performance of second-hand housing prices in July showed that only Taiyuan experienced a month-on-month increase, while all other cities reported declines [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong credit ratings that can cater to improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][28] - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group [8][28] - Additionally, it highlights quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, including China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [8][28]